WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Batcathat]

we almost certainly have a wolf hiding in the less active players.

This is likely to be true, whether or not Kraken's a wolf. I am a bit worried that we'll basically be shooting blind eventually. Still, I do think there's a decent chance that all remaining wolves are within Kraken, Illven, Persolus and Caz (listed from most to least suspicious, in my opinion, though it's basically a coin-toss between Illven and Persolus).

Caz could be wolf but Murska wouldn't willingly put a wolf-jailkeeper (we have confirmation that Caz is JK either way) in danger D1 if it wasn't necessary. Like the value of a role like that - unless other wolves roles are crazier - is too high for a random bus on D1 imo.

It's also worth keeping the below in mind. Now, I do think the most likely explanation is Murska just trying to mess with people's heads (in a game like this, it would be pretty wise to assume that the living might get information from deadchat in some way) but if it's not, that would rob Caz of some townpoints.

The folder reads "Notes from the Holding Cell for Busted Participants."
(not direct quotes)
Day 2
flat_footed - there are several bastard mechanics in play right now. One of them is the Vault 11 Win Condition. If there had been no votes on Day 1, then everyone would have won.

Day 3
Murska - People are making the assumption that I know who's on my side.
CaoimhinTheCape - So you're not connected to your side?
Murska - No, I know my side. It's just that there is no public evidence I'm even part of the wolf team.
CaoimhinTheCape - I guess so... but the red color is a good assumption. However if any wolf was going to be on his own, House would be the one.

[Let'sGetKraken]

First of all, happy birthday Illven! This post is not going to go well for you (spoilers), but I hope it was a good day nonetheless.

Alright, giving this one more shot before claiming. You wanted reads? Here's me reading through the whole thread and recording my thoughts for each player as I have them. Sorry if it's confusing to follow.

If I still have the lead wagon on me at 8 PM EST tomorrow - which is honestly likely, given that there are no other contenders - I will claim and we'll yeet someone else and we'll only have lost time and pointlessly outed my abilities. I would strongly prefer this does not happen.

(note: I have not bothered with reads on/from dead town players, for the sake of my sanity and this being readable).

Player List:

1. Athedia - a lot of posts and high-quality entertainment and investment, but not a lot of substance until D3. Relatively cleared by the thing with JeenLean. Did poke Ti in #104, which unpairs them a bit, while talking about people not analyzing, which is helpful if a teensy bit hypocritical. Gets points for making the connection to player order in #152. Voted me D2. Started the wagon on Cazero (suggesting Jeen was also, correctly, sus). Pretty confidently thinks that Jeen, Murska, and Cazero are wolves in #253. Claimed not to like the blade or BW wagons. Starts aggressivey fishing for role names in #256, which made me really think that she was non-town at the time. Chooses to vote Jeen in response to BCH, but this is consistent with earlier posts. Agreed to reveal title if four more people did, which again, made me think this was a mechanical thing. Claims no killing ability, no benefit for knowing roles, no alt win condition, not related to blackjack. Points out that Cazero accused her after she started the Jeen wagon... but Jeen was already throwing suspicion if not voting this way. Throws shade at Illven in #278, which I honestly agree with. Suspects me and Illven N3. Votes me D4 and suggest Lady Ti participate more.
2. bladescape - has been consistently voting me since post #54, but I've also been getting gut pings from the relative lack of poking. I still really don't like post #69, which is where I think a lot of my distrust stems from - in a bastard game where it is stated to be rigged from the start, suspecting the narrator who was busted in-thread doesn't seem like it deserves this level of scorn. Though the logic in #76 checks out. Voted me D2, agreed caz was town, and then immediately moved off me to BCH after some wise introspection. Correctly identified that Jeen's vote on him was iffy. Threw a bit of sus onto BCH in 214. Ended up voting for self-preservation (not sure who TBH, was blade Jeen? Too tired to check). Claimed he wouldn't have run into a vet in post #249, but like... he wouldn't have had to carry the kill? I don't like this. Voted Jeen in #291, thinks Athedia and Caz are both town. Claimed the hijack in #331 as one-time thing, which I believe for balance reasons. Blade heavily suspects me in #343, which is fair, instead of reading my post as a compliment to his ruthlessness, and then votes me D4 as part of the growing wagon.
3. MerelBlackbird - came in late very enthusiastically, which drew some shade from Illven. Would recommend rereading post #94, has a bunch. Townread Jeen but with reservations, same with Illven (with a bit more waffling), unabled to read blade (I know the feeling). Thought Jeen/me weren't W/W - which she's moved off of, interestingly. Semi-confidently townread AV, Jeen, CCW, Blade, me, and Illven. No vote D1. Started off voting Blade D2, joining the bandwagon as vote #3. Shows up D3 to vote Athedia, which is NOT a good look when Jeen is the alternate wagon. Suggests we yeet Cazero N3. Joins my wagon anyhow D4, likely seeing there's no appetite for Cazero, making no mention of the "we yeet Cazero tomorrow, right?"
4. AvatarVecna [/S]- claimed townsiding neutral, actively wanted to die D3 and self-voted. Died N3 along with CCB and Cuthalion.
5. Illven - JeenLeen tried to suggest that Illven and I were scumbuddies early. She gets towncred for that alone, though god knows wolves have sussed partners before. Posted filler multiple times, including a pretty meaningless read of Merel in post #67. Voted Cazero D1, which was bandwagoning for pressure. Pressure-voted Bookwombat start of D2. Pops back into existence start of D3 to vote Lentrax as a placeholder, cast sus on Athedia, waffled on Cazero. Stated D3 that they would yeet AV if they backed off the supposed vig-claim. Slight town points for pointing out that people don't give out role names. Asks me for alignment in response to AV being a town-aligned neutral, which makes me think that she thinks I'm a corresponding wolf-aligned neutral. Which I am not.
6. Lentrax - only 11 posts, a lot of them fluff early on, but their first game of WW overall. Suggested no votes D2 to go with Vault 11, which feels NAI. Confirmed that there was no notification for being jailed.
7. Persolus - not a lot to go off of here, but Jeen trying to start a wagon on him D1 midway through the day seems risky, so he gets townpoints for that. However, the scumbuddies in wolfchat joke in #97 seems... sus. I know it's a joke but it feels a bit like a double-bluff. Pops back in to play blackjack. Digs for info on AV.
8. Snowblaze- N1 kill. About time <3. I'd say she's missed (and she is), but also this probably saved me from another page to review so I'm grateful.
9. Cazero - has claimed jailer. Wolf roleblockers are not exactly uncommon, but has some towncred from how Jeen's death went. HOWEV ER, both Murska and Jeen have stepped in to question the Cazero wagon D1. I honestly think this might be more townpoints - this is probably too blatant a link for wolves to pull at this stage. When wagoned for thoughts, provided no reads in post 100. Voted Cao out of me, AV, and Cao, as suggested by Murska. Pressure voted Lady Ti D2, moved to BookWombat after she emerged. I am still WIFOMing over #239 even now. Voted Athedia D3, which isn't a great look. Slight town points for sharing role name and advising others not to do so. Claims to have jailed Lentrax N2, with no visible results - not a kill-carrying wolf, at least.
10. Book Wombat - random voted, speculated on game mechanics, and nothing else D1. Voted Persolus from slight pings D2. Put a placeholder on Jeen D3. Said that his feeling about Jeen was right D4.
11. Let'sGetKraken - can claim but would prefer not to. Notably the fourth-highest poster in the thread, despite accusations of only trying to survive. Would be fifth but Snowblaze rightfully died early. Was very wrong about Murska D1 (so was Snow, at least) but was correct that Jeen was pocketing him. I would also note that I was giving Athedia non-town vibes from post #48, so it's not like this was inconsistent. Voted BookWombat D2, noted that the blade wagon felt iffy (which it did!). Suggested that BCH was worth looking at D3. Voted Athedia D3, which was a bad look, yes.
12. CaoimhinTheCape - Had some sort of info power (seeing powers?) which fizzled on Cazero N1 - which does back the self-jail N1 somewhat. Makes it less likely it's a RB. Busted D2.
13. Cuthalion -
14. corncobweb - briefly, gloriously resurrected after being busted N2. brings back valuable info - explaining vault 11 (whoops), Murska suggesting that mechanics with wolves might be weird, Cao confirms that the scry on cazero was prevented.
15. JeenLeen - flipped Wolf. Again, sorry Athedia. Gave me and Illven possible wolfpairs D1, slight townlean to Athedia, but then said he didn't like my wagon multiple times. Threw shade on Illven a second time D1 - distancing, or genuinely trying to set up later plays? Said he didn't like my wagon but was okay with it, which granted is a bad look. Attempted to start a wagon on Persolus D1. Chose not to join the Cazero wagon. ISO'd Murska D2 and gave him a waffly townlean. Concluded cazero was town (definitively - could be pocketing, don't see a wolf doing this) in 196. Voted BCH in retaliation, with Cao as a plausible backup, and so BCH gets no points for this vote because he immediately moved to Cao. Moved to vote Bladescape in 212. Voted Athedia D3, starting off the Romeo and Juliet situation. Was confident Caz was town in #252, which does seem risky as a wolf to tie yourself to another wolf; importantly, also says "if Caz flips wolf, I look bad", which feels like the thing of say you'd say as a wolf if you knew someone was town to set yourself up for some towncred. Recommended testing Cazero first in #254, which... yeah, Caz gets towncred. Does this again in #260, which points to a "Caz flips town, so I'll be safe" strategy. Suggested that BCH and Athedia were more likely to be wolves in #261. Doubles-down on Athedia and cazero in #294 (GO READ THIS). Suggested slight townlean on BCH, which I don't love, but he knew he was under the barrel of the gun at this point so this may be reverse psychology; plus, he did undercut it a bit. Repeats again in #303 that the case against him hinges on Cazero being a wolf, which pretty much confirms that he thinks that Caz flipping town is his way out of this.
16. Lady Serpentine - has a total of 3 posts this game. First one (I think) was #206, voting JeenLeen. Did try to call into question the lucky number thing, but it's not an unreasonable thought, so NAI for that. Suggested that someone off-wagon check to see if they loop, which is either NAI or could pair with the existing wagons (not wanting people to move onto them).
17. BatCatHat - is still giving me gut pings. Waffled on me, which is in character, from one waffler to another. No read on Cazero early and suggested the wagon was less useful in 119 and voted Cao. Don't love the theory in #158, even if he lampshades it. Voted me start of D2. Agreed with a grain of salt not to yeet me D2 in #187, voted Jeen instead, did an ISO and kept the vote where it was with a neutral reading. Supported more votes on Jeen but did sort of ask for justification in #200, which could be indicative of some light bussing? Went pretty hard on Jeen D2 overall, waffled about BW and Blade. Voted Jeen again D3, says if Jeen flips wolf BW gets some credit. Slight points for suggesting role sharing is bad for town. Suggests voting AV is bad (agreed), which I like. Townreads athedia in #306, which is... hm. NAI, I think? This comes across as "I know Athedia is going to flip town, and I am getting ahead of that to solidify my town status". In #310, suggests that Athedia and Cazero are both town, which could be Athedia/BCH as wolves, but most likely town points. Suggests that me or Illven are possible wolves N3, and starts the wagon on me D4. Thinks that it's likely ythat all remaining wolves are in me, Illven, Persolus, and Caz, in order of suspicion.
18. Murska - flipped wolf. Gave Illven townpoints away T1 (then immediately took them away in the same post) as well as Lentrax. Jumped on my wagon D1. Stepped in to question the Cazero wagon in post 78 and again in 81, but did join in in 83. Questioned it again in 91. Suggested Cazero as a "may as well" in 129, but then immediately suggested me, Cao, and AV as options - so no townpoints to Caz for this. Followed Caz's lead and voted Cao in #132, but then moved back onto Cazero when Cao claimed a power role. Busted D1 because of the lucky number.
19. Flatfooted (well, the bustable narrator, at least) - busted early D1. I am guessing neutral power, wolf ability, or (most likely) paranoia generation. Not worth discussion for now, but I am including him partially to annoy Blade.

Other notes:

• Bastardry aside, we are in a much better position here than I thought. Four dead town and two dead wolves is a very solid ratio. I thought we'd lost one more town for whatever reason.
• Hilariously, post #65 of people I wanted to fixate on contains zero wolves if Cazero is in fact town. Oops. Maybe I'll be a little less smug after the game ends.
• Blade is absolutely ruthless enough to kill a fellow wolf to get perpetual towncred.... but still. I only see this with W/W wagons.
• Don't worry Athedia, if we're talking about flairs for the dramatic you're in good company.
• There is likely a wolf-aligned neutral, if AV is telling the truth.
• Breakdown of Jeen's post in #294 - suggests that if Athedia is a wolf, him and Cazero are clear. Could be setting up wolf/wolf or the Caz flip the next day. Suggests that if we test Cazero, and if he flips wolf, yeet himself; if he's town, yeet Athedia. This suggests that Cazero is not a wolf, and that Athedia is likely not a wolf, since Jeen knows that Cazero isn't a wolf and consequently would not suggest that Athedia should be the next yeet when this is revealed. Suggests that a seer clear him if Athedia flips town, which makes me think that this is pre-emptive defensiveness.
• Blade is being exceptionally cheeky in #321, given that he claimed credit for hijacking the vote shortly thereafter.
• It's unlikely that Merel pairs herself with two wolves in post #94, so I think Illven/Merel is unlikely as W/W.
• Blade is only really a wolf if Athedia is a wolf. I do not suggest testing this, but it means if anyone else flips wolf, the chances that Blade is a wolf decreases from like, 3% to practically zero.

Questions for people:

• BCH - why do you think BW got credit for Jeen flipping wolf?
• Blade - why do you think BCH is town and not a bussing wolf?

Reads, from most to least town:

Cazero - pretty unambiguously town, based on how Jeen reacted and because why on earth would a wolf jail themself N1?
Blade - responsible for saving Athedia D3, and killing Jeen. This gives massive town points - the only circumstances in which this happens is if the remaining wolves are Athedia/Blade and that whole spat was designed to give Athedia and Blade towncred... which is possible but inlikely.
Athedia - the whole business with Jeen, especially post #294.
BatCatHat - Of the top four townreads, I think this is the one I'd want to vote the most. Pretty heavily paired with Cazero. The Jeen voting earns a lot of goodwill but there's enough gray in there that if we have to vote a more-active player, it would be him. I still don't like #306.
BookWombat - only reason he isn't lower is the Jeen vote, and that could be bussing. Not really much to go off of.
Lentrax - nothing of substance - I want reads and would not shed tears for a yeet here.
Persolus - gets a bit of townpoints D1 for Jeen trying to start a pivot-off wagon on him D1. I still don't like that scumbuddies joke. Need more participation from him.
Lady Sepentine - three posts is basically nothing to go off of. Voted Jeen, but notable not when it actually mattered.

Merel - both her votes on D2 and D3 have been bandwagoning, and on D3 it was against a now-confirmed wolf. I voted that way too, but I would need to see more from her - especially with the suggestion we test Cazero today, which she has conveniently dropped today. Blade seems to trust her, and I don't think Blade/Merel/Athedia is possible, which makes me think they are unpaired.
Illven - D1 Jeen with her could be distancing, especially since Murska did the opposite (gently). Bandwagoned for pressure D1 and stayed on BW D2 (correct me if I am wrong). D3, I think she stayed on Lentrax D3, right? There is absolutely nothing here that is a good look for Illven other than some very halfhearted shade on her from Jeen D1, which was also thrown on me, while there is a LOT of filler posting.

------

Whew.

So, yeah. I am open to any wagons past the first four reads, really, but would suggest Lady Serpentine (Illven). There's been a lot of participation and very little of it has been a good look for her, with a lot of what looks like filler. It would be Merel, if not for the fact that Blade is vouching for her, and it is very, very, very unlikely that they are paired.


Also, in the interest of survival - Athedia, please deal me in, or I can take over the abandoned hand. I trust you a lot more now, if that helps.

[Lentrax]

All I can say is that I really do feel out of my depth here. I honestly have no idea what I am supposed to be looking for or how to potentially spot whatever I am trying to see.

So at this point, I actually feel I need a couple of things answered.

What is a vig? And why is that significant?

What is NAI?

Oh. And for clarity's sake, I will reveal part of my power, because it is actually important now that I re-read the wording on it. Which may also be too much, idk...

I get one negation of a wolf power, even a kill. And since I didn't get a notification of the results of the rest of my power, that clears Cazero for me.

But... yeah...

[Let'sGetKraken]

All I can say is that I really do feel out of my depth here. I honestly have no idea what I am supposed to be looking for or how to potentially spot whatever I am trying to see.

So at this point, I actually feel I need a couple of things answered.

What is a vig? And why is that significant?

What is NAI?

Oh. And for clarity's sake, I will reveal part of my power, because it is actually important now that I re-read the wording on it. Which may also be too much, idk...

I get one negation of a wolf power, even a kill. And since I didn't get a notification of the results of the rest of my power, that clears Cazero for me.

But... yeah...

In terms of things to look for - inconsistent reads on people. Logic that looks a little not-logical. People trying to fly under the radar, or people posting without a lot of analysis or substance. And then obviously anything that contradicts info you know.

Vig = vigilante. Town role, can kill like wolves can, with the disadvantage that you don’t know your target isn’t on your team.

NAI = not alignment indicative. Basically, not town or wolfy behaviour.

And good to know, honestly. Helping to confirm Caz is really valuable here.

[Batcathat]

• BCH - why do you think BW got credit for Jeen flipping wolf?
• Blade - why do you think BCH is town and not a bussing wolf?

Mostly just for voting Jeen fairly early both D2 and D3. Bussing is possible, of course, but it seems odd to bus a wolf buddy who isn't even a wagon yet.

On a similar note, I now realized I had kind of forgotten that Lady Serpentine voted Jeen D2, which probably gives some towncred as well. While Jeen wasn't exactly the likeliest to get yeeted, adding a third vote to a wolf buddy at that point does seem a bit risky.

[Athedia]

"Dealing you in. Lady Serpentine has been quieter and I do feel bad about doing this to Illven while she is celebrating. But then again... hard for us to celebrate until we know which side of the coin we have landed on. Also, just so you know I believe Cazero as well. I got no results last night. Means my power didn't work."

With this she flipped cards in front of the three players and herself.

🃝🃏

Spoiler: Persolus

Show

🃔🃗

Spoiler: MerelBlackbird

Show

🃈🃓

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

Show

🃖🂭

"And the blackjack, while powerless hasn't been completely useless. Seeing peoples suspicions, who is willing to engage. It has even brought some reluctant folks into more engagement."

[bladescape]

Other notes:

• Blade is being exceptionally cheeky in #321, given that he claimed credit for hijacking the vote shortly thereafter.

Hehehe.

Questions for people:

• Blade - why do you think BCH is town and not a bussing wolf?

Reasons. BCH is not as strong as Ath/Caz by far imo. I am open to you making a case there.

So, yeah. I am open to any wagons past the first four reads, really, but would suggest Lady Serpentine (Illven). There's been a lot of participation and very little of it has been a good look for her, with a lot of what looks like filler. It would be Merel, if not for the fact that Blade is vouching for her, and it is very, very, very unlikely that they are paired.


Also, in the interest of survival - Athedia, please deal me in, or I can take over the abandoned hand. I trust you a lot more now, if that helps.

Ftr I'm not sure I should be shielding Merel anymore. The things I was seeing in her wolf game have crept in and I might have been fooled by early play.

That being said I'd actually like to change to Lentrax (Lady Serpentine) myself.

The singular post on Jeen kinda gives me more sus than if she'd been wrong tbh.

Kraken I'm not gonna clear but that content was a lot of what I was wanting from him so I'll leave him alive for now.

[Athedia]

Hehehe.



Reasons. BCH is not as strong as Ath/Caz by far imo. I am open to you making a case there.



Ftr I'm not sure I should be shielding Merel anymore. The things I was seeing in her wolf game have crept in and I might have been fooled by early play.

That being said I'd actually like to change to Lentrax (Lady Serpentine) myself.

The singular post on Jeen kinda gives me more sus than if she'd been wrong tbh.

Kraken I'm not gonna clear but that content was a lot of what I was wanting from him so I'll leave him alive for now.

"Sell me on Lady Serpentine. I am not opposed, but I would like the sell. I agree regarding Merel. She seems, very excited."

[bladescape]

"Sell me on Lady Serpentine. I am not opposed, but I would like the sell. I agree regarding Merel. She seems, very excited."

I found a pokey stick? Would like to poke. Don't have a super good reason but the singular vote on a wolf and no other activity would match a wolf seeing their team be destroyed and trying to go utr

[Illven]

Alright, so I am no longer the birthday noodle.

Kraken asked why I asked about his alignment, I figured it was fairly obvious but let me go down the steps.

Flat posted that wincon 11 failed. Okay I don't have enough info to do anything about that.
AvatarVecna claimed neutral, they then proceeded to claim that they didn't know their win condition.

I thought, is flat possibly publicly posting about neutral's win conditions if they succeed or fail instead of telling the neutrals what they were.

Vecna was player 4, Kraken was player 11. If flat is doing that, Kraken would thus be a neutral not told their win condition.

I asked while knowing that Kraken may not want to claim neutral.

Self defense vote on Illven

[Let'sGetKraken]

Alright, so I am no longer the birthday noodle.

Kraken asked why I asked about his alignment, I figured it was fairly obvious but let me go down the steps.

Flat posted that wincon 11 failed. Okay I don't have enough info to do anything about that.
AvatarVecna claimed neutral, they then proceeded to claim that they didn't know their win condition.

I thought, is flat possibly publicly posting about neutral's win conditions if they succeed or fail instead of telling the neutrals what they were.

Vecna was player 4, Kraken was player 11. If flat is doing that, Kraken would thus be a neutral not told their win condition.

I asked while knowing that Kraken may not want to claim neutral.

Self defense vote on Illven

This is admittedly not unreasonable. I thought you might be a wolf fishing for wolf-siding neutrals - which may be the case, or you may be a wofl-siding neutral yourself. It doesn't win you any points, at least, but it doesn't lose you any either.

I am willing to vote anyone from Book Wombat to Illven on my list of reads, with the exception of Lentrax, who has shared a very juicy tidbit that is either a very canny wolfplay, indicative of Lentrax/Caz W/W, or (most likely) sincere town action.

Again, will remind people of the deadline - in about eight hours, if I am still the leading wagon, I will claim. I'd strongly prefer not to give wolves any more information about my powers, since while they're not exactly strong, they are specific in ways that could be frustrating to them in some relatively plausible situations.

So, in order to avoid that, here are the current votes:

Kraken (3): BCH, Merel, Illven.
Illven (2): Kraken, Athedia
Lady Ti (1): Bladescape.

Since ties go to the first wagon, that means that we need either BCH or Merel to switch to another wagon - or we all (including Illven) can join the Lady Ti wagon. Again, open to wagoning any of Book Wombat, Persolus, Lady Ti, Merel, or Illven. While blade might be right that we find a wolf in Lady Ti, I'm not sure it gives us much info if we're wrong, so my preference would be for Illven, but my greater preference here is survival and not having to claim.

- - - Updated - - -

"Also, just so you know I believe Cazero as well. I got no results last night. Means my power didn't work."

I think this helps confirm Lentrax's claim, but I am still a little tired from the three-hour write-up yesterday. Maybe not. Good to know either way. Another piece of evidence you aren't a wolf (at least, not the kill-carrying one.... and with a jailer, having the wolf kill not be carried seems cruel).

Reasons. BCH is not as strong as Ath/Caz by far imo. I am open to you making a case there.

I'm pretty sure I made my case with the 3000-word write-up last night in which I pointed out multiple things that made me suspicious, lol. While I am refusing to rule out absolutely ruthless bussing like I am for Caz, I still don't think BCH is worth testing - I just think I have a hard time reading him.

- - - Updated - - -

No, wait. There was a lucky number D2. If that messes with power targeting as well, then Lentrax's info... but then.... Cazero couldn't have self-targeted....

Okay. So two scenarios are possible:

A) the lucky number does not affect power targeting at night, in which case all is well.
B) the lucky number does affect power usage, and Cazero is a lying wolf, somehow, in which case mad respect.

[Cazero]

B) the lucky number does affect power usage, and Cazero is a lying wolf, somehow, in which case mad respect.

How would that make me a wolf?
If I self targeted and then my power got shifted, presumably the interacting power that received feedback was also pointed at me then shifted.

I should probably vote somewhere, but I'm not sure where yet.

[Book Wombat]

Tomorrow is Pokemon day at the aquarium. More importantly it's my birthday, and since water type is LEGALLY best type. I *have* to go.

Late happy birthday!

Book Wombat - random voted, speculated on game mechanics, and nothing else D1. Voted Persolus from slight pings D2. Put a placeholder on Jeen D3. Said that his feeling about Jeen was right D4.

Went through the thread, and have some slight pings on JeenLeen.
Persolus

I voted Persolus on Day 2 because the offset would put the vote on JeenLeen.

––

Will have another look through the thread.

[Let'sGetKraken]

How would that make me a wolf?
If I self targeted and then my power got shifted, presumably the interacting power that received feedback was also pointed at me then shifted.

I should probably vote somewhere, but I'm not sure where yet.

...nevermind, good point.

On both counts, in fact. I am no longer willing to vote BW today, sorry about the mixup. In my defense, going through 360 posts while taking moderately detailed notes was... taxing.

[Cazero]

I think I'll go with Lentrax (Lady Serpentine) without much conviction.

[Book Wombat]

I'm leaning towards Illven being town for something I'd rather not say just yet (nothing mechanical, just behaviour), so going with Let'sGetKraken (or rather MerelBlackBird) for now.

[Lentrax]

I think I'll go with Lentrax (Lady Serpentine) without much conviction.

With what we think we know about the lucky number shifting votes, and me being certain about Caz, I’m willing to go along with this.

Lentrax (Lady Serpentine)

Of course, it just really makes me hope we are all right about lucky numbers shifting where our votes land.

But hey, this is New Vegas right? Gotta gamble somewhere.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Well, it looks like there's enough suppet for a Lady Ti wagon, so I will not be claiming. Will move my vote there when I am not driving.

[Athedia]

"I will switch to Lentrax with an aim at Lady Serpentine. Now that is decided please finish up the hand."

[Batcathat]

I still prefer voting Kraken over Lady Serpentine, though that's admittedly mostly gut (I do think Ti voting Jeen when she did was a bit risky for a wolf buddy, but I can see other interpretations). I was kind of hoping for Kraken's claim to help me make up my mind one way or the other, but the decision not to claim (yet) is probably NAI.

I wonder whether mass claiming role names (preferably in order from most suspect to least) would be helpful? I think it might work, but on the other hand we still can't be sure role names can't be used against us somehow (though I'm leaning towards it being safe, possibly aside from the wolves being able to guess powers based on role names) and with several low- or inactive players, we might not get enough information for it to be usable.

[bladescape]

I still prefer voting Kraken over Lady Serpentine, though that's admittedly mostly gut (I do think Ti voting Jeen when she did was a bit risky for a wolf buddy, but I can see other interpretations). I was kind of hoping for Kraken's claim to help me make up my mind one way or the other, but the decision not to claim (yet) is probably NAI.

I wonder whether mass claiming role names (preferably in order from most suspect to least) would be helpful? I think it might work, but on the other hand we still can't be sure role names can't be used against us somehow (though I'm leaning towards it being safe, possibly aside from the wolves being able to guess powers based on role names) and with several low- or inactive players, we might not get enough information for it to be usable.

Could be good (assuming we don't get modsmited for it.)

But not enough time left in this day phase I think. I'd do it with enough time to actually think about it.

[Let'sGetKraken]

"I will switch to Lentrax with an aim at Lady Serpentine. Now that is decided please finish up the hand."

The man grimly smiles. "I doubt I have long 'till I'm bust anyhow. Why not live a little. Hit me."

I still prefer voting Kraken over Lady Serpentine, though that's admittedly mostly gut (I do think Ti voting Jeen when she did was a bit risky for a wolf buddy, but I can see other interpretations). I was kind of hoping for Kraken's claim to help me make up my mind one way or the other, but the decision not to claim (yet) is probably NAI.

I wonder whether mass claiming role names (preferably in order from most suspect to least) would be helpful? I think it might work, but on the other hand we still can't be sure role names can't be used against us somehow (though I'm leaning towards it being safe, possibly aside from the wolves being able to guess powers based on role names) and with several low- or inactive players, we might not get enough information for it to be usable.

You will have to wait, I'm afraid.

I'm skeptical but okay with mass claiming role names tomorrow. My only question is... how does that actually help us? Without associated powers, are we just going to debate whether they seem legit? The only mechanism we have for testing them is flips, at which point they're pretty useless (barring bastardry). And the potential downside of someone having name shenanigans is, uh, not ideal.

Lentrax (Lady Serpentine). I think it's more likely BCH-Persolus-Illven-Merel contains the last two wolves, but we don't lose too much here from Ti's flip if we're wrong.

[bladescape]

The man grimly smiles. "I doubt I have long 'till I'm bust anyhow. Why not live a little. Hit me."



You will have to wait, I'm afraid.

I'm skeptical but okay with mass claiming role names tomorrow. My only question is... how does that actually help us? Without associated powers, are we just going to debate whether they seem legit? The only mechanism we have for testing them is flips, at which point they're pretty useless (barring bastardry). And the potential downside of someone having name shenanigans is, uh, not ideal.

Lentrax (Lady Serpentine). I think it's more likely BCH-Persolus-Illven-Merel contains the last two wolves, but we don't lose too much here from Ti's flip if we're wrong.

Ngl I just wanna have an excuse to claim my name.

But actually you're right on that. I don't... expect a soup kill (standard terminology on other forums for flavour killing power.) from a Flat game? But also I could be hilariously wrong. The safe play is definitely not to reveal role names.

It's also the boring play tho

[Batcathat]

I'm skeptical but okay with mass claiming role names tomorrow. My only question is... how does that actually help us? Without associated powers, are we just going to debate whether they seem legit?

Yeah, pretty much. From the flips we've seen, it seems likely (though obviously not certain) that the wolf roles will be specific people rather than descriptions, in which case the wolves would have to lie. It's unlikely to solve the game for us, but it's potentially helpful.

Lentrax (Lady Serpentine). I think it's more likely BCH-Persolus-Illven-Merel contains the last two wolves, but we don't lose too much here from Ti's flip if we're wrong.

I can't say that voting someone you don't think is likely to flip wolf is making me trust you more, but I suppose it sort of being in self-defense might make in NAI-ish.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Yeah, pretty much. From the flips we've seen, it seems likely (though obviously not certain) that the wolf roles will be specific people rather than descriptions, in which case the wolves would have to lie. It's unlikely to solve the game for us, but it's potentially helpful.

I can't say that voting someone you don't think is likely to flip wolf is making me trust you more, but I suppose it sort of being in self-defense might make in NAI-ish.

I mean, yeah, but it seems like a pretty easy lie that's impossible to verify unless they happen to make one up that overlaps with ours. I mean, we can theoretically go from most suspicious to least suspicious, but I am skeptical this does anything.

As I have said, I would ideally test Illven or Merel today but trying to force that is just going to get me killed because of the split wagon. I laid out my arguments in excruciating detail and if that wasn't enough to be convincing there is nothing else I can really say.

[Lentrax]

Saddest part is that as just text in a screen we lose any read on the person behind the screen, making it harder to catch something.

That said, I think enough votes have shifted to me (Lady Serpentine) that you’re probably not in danger this day. But someone else would have to count them since I’m on mobile standing in a line at the DMV.

[Athedia]

The man grimly smiles. "I doubt I have long 'till I'm bust anyhow. Why not live a little. Hit me."

"My pleasure."

She flipped a card in front of Kraken, letting it slide into place next to its siblings.

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

Show

🃖🂭🂴

[MerelBlackbird]

Hi!!

I'll be able to work more on the game later (am about to leave the house) but I'm dropping in quickly anyway.

"Sell me on Lady Serpentine. I am not opposed, but I would like the sell. I agree regarding Merel. She seems, very excited."

I am a very excitable person. Especially when I have no idea what's going on. Hit, please.

By the way, my role title is Master Technician. Make of that what you will.

[Let'sGetKraken]

"My pleasure."

She flipped a card in front of Kraken, letting it slide into place next to its siblings.

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

Show

🃖🂭🂴

"Well. You can call that deliverance, perhaps. Who knows, maybe my fortune's turning as well."


Lentrax - it's more that people have expressed a disinclination to vote Illven and Merel respectively today. I don't want to try to pull support for a wagon and end up on the chopping block myself, since there's still a couple of people voting for me - because while I think that we're more likely than not to find a wolf in Ti, I know there are better odds than for me.

[Lentrax]

Fair enough.