WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Cazero]

Starting to feel like there are no vanillagers in this game.

[bladescape]

Starting to feel like there are no vanillagers in this game.

Yes. See my "you get a pr, you get a pr" on d1.

[flat_footed]

Day 4 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[flat_footed]

The day passes quick and cold under the gaze of Yes Man. The Securitron just... stands there blankly staring. If it wasn't for the occasional flicker of its screen, you would have thought it yet another lifeless hunk of metal. It's disconcerting to see the AI inactive for such a long period. If you didn't know any better, you'd swear it was paused and waiting for orders. The only other activity throughout the day comes from the steady cadence of the Blackjack dealer offering what few hands there were to play. The lure of hitting it big is a distant memory, and most that do have caps hold onto them with an iron grip.

Towards the end of the day, a low beeping breaks the silence and Yes Man's screen flickers again with unfamiliar numbers.

1-39
3-94
5-105

Desperate for anything that may aid the group's escape, a few brave souls close in around the Securitron, trying to garner whatever knowledge they could from this moment. Be it desperation or an incidental motion, a scrap of cloth brushes against the robot. Quick as a snake, one clawed hand darts forward and grabs the arm of the unfortunate woman. "Interfering with Casino personnel in the course of their duties is punishable by unlimited incarceration," the speakers hummed quietly. With a strangled cry, the woman is hoisted into the air and carried through the back doors.

Lady Serpentine has been busted. She was The Loan Shark.

Night Four has begun and will end in ~22 hours.

[bladescape]

Merel.

Lemme know where your head is at rn.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Purely hypothetically - do we think that night targeting is shifted, or if the lucky number only applies to votes during day? I have a minor ability that I intend to use on myself tonight, but I don't want it to possibly benefit Illven, who is my biggest wolfread right now.

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Also, I guess we can infer that AV/dead chat was either bluffing about being able to influence the vote, or they agreed with the Lady Ti targeting. Which makes me feel a teensy bit better about missing there.

[Athedia]

"I didn't super suspect Lady Serpentine, but I couldn't rule her out either. Book Wombat, Persolus and Merel are also in that category for their information. If we are all powered, day or night powers?"

[MerelBlackbird]

Hello!

Merel.

Lemme know where your head is at rn.

Right now? I've been thinking and reading back. I changed my mind again on a lot, hopefully for the last time. I think BOTH Athedia and Cazero are cleared by association with JeenLeen (and Illven at a long shot, but that's still a touch uncertain). You're clear for forcing a wolf lynch when it would have been unecessary for a wolf. Kraken's analysis clears him now in my eyes, and I feel kind of bad for voting him merely for Athedia pushing him repeatedly. I was starting to think she really suspected him.

"I didn't super suspect Lady Serpentine, but I couldn't rule her out either. Book Wombat, Persolus and Merel are also in that category for their information. If we are all powered, day or night powers?"

Night. For me anyway.

[Persolus]

I have a night power [not a Wolf Kill, i promise!]

I'm the Joker, which is a neutral - and is in fact distinct from Jester
Killing me will not end the game
[just for me, since i need to survive]

And Athedia, hit me.

[Athedia]

Hello!


Right now? I've been thinking and reading back. I changed my mind again on a lot, hopefully for the last time. I think BOTH Athedia and Cazero are cleared by association with JeenLeen (and Illven at a long shot, but that's still a touch uncertain). You're clear for forcing a wolf lynch when it would have been unecessary for a wolf. Kraken's analysis clears him now in my eyes, and I feel kind of bad for voting him merely for Athedia pushing him repeatedly. I was starting to think she really suspected him.



Night. For me anyway.

"Who says I don't suspect him still. Jury still out on that one."

I have a night power [not a Wolf Kill, i promise!]

I'm the Joker, which is a neutral - and is in fact distinct from Jester
Killing me will not end the game
[just for me, since i need to survive]

And Athedia, hit me.

"Hmm that does put us in a tricky position, since that would be a potential role that a wolf would hide behind." She flipped a card in front of Persolus.

Spoiler: Persolus

Show

🃔🃗🂡

"But suppose you aren't lying, does your role involve visiting anyone? Observing? Betting on who dies?"

[Persolus]

It involves chaos :)

Also, hit me baby one more time

[Athedia]

It involves chaos :)

Also, hit me baby one more time

"Chaos does not give me confidence on your trustworthiness. Does it act on another player, set of players, or something else along those lines."

She slid another card to Persolus as she questioned him.

Spoiler: Persolus

Show

🃔🃗🂡🃇

[Persolus]

Very well, I suppose I should stand by my honour and explain.

I target someone, anyone they target and anyone targeting them has their target randomised - with the fun exception of it being unable to hit me.

[Batcathat]

Very well, I suppose I should stand by my honour and explain.

I target someone, anyone they target and anyone targeting them has their target randomised - with the fun exception of it being unable to hit me.

I don't suppose you'd be interested in sharing who you've targeted? I'm particularly interested in N2, since I thought CCW was kind of a weird NK target and this does seem like a potential explanation.

I'm a little vary of having this discussion at night, but now that this much has already been revealed it might be just as well to continue.

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Wait, I might've misunderstood. Are you saying that your target's target has their own target randomized or that your target does? (Plus whoever targets your target). I thought if was the latter, but if it's the former it's likely less helpful.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Very well, I suppose I should stand by my honour and explain.

I target someone, anyone they target and anyone targeting them has their target randomised - with the fun exception of it being unable to hit me.

Well, this explains the "this power cannot be redirected" clause I have in my second power.

I buy this, honestly? One neutral is too few for a game like this. And the name is a bit simplistic compared to AV's, but I suppose it does fit.

[Persolus]

I don't suppose you'd be interested in sharing who you've targeted? I'm particularly interested in N2, since I thought CCW was kind of a weird NK target and this does seem like a potential explanation.

I'm a little vary of having this discussion at night, but now that this much has already been revealed it might be just as well to continue.

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Wait, I might've misunderstood. Are you saying that your target's target has their own target randomized or that your target does? (Plus whoever targets your target). I thought if was the latter, but if it's the former it's likely less helpful.

I target someone:
If they target someone this phase, the target gets randomised [can't be me, but could loop around].
If someone else targets them, they are randomised [can't be me, but could loop around].
Missed N1, then Illven and Caz.

[Athedia]

Well, this explains the "this power cannot be redirected" clause I have in my second power.

I buy this, honestly? One neutral is too few for a game like this. And the name is a bit simplistic compared to AV's, but I suppose it does fit.

I target someone:
If they target someone this phase, the target gets randomised [can't be me, but could loop around].
If someone else targets them, they are randomised [can't be me, but could loop around].
Missed N1, then Illven and Caz.

"Caz on Night 3? Caz who did you target Night 3 then? The answer might vastly change a my reads on some people."

[Cazero]

I targeted you. I thought you had gotten feedback about it.

[Athedia]

I target someone:
If they target someone this phase, the target gets randomised [can't be me, but could loop around].
If someone else targets them, they are randomised [can't be me, but could loop around].
Missed N1, then Illven and Caz.

"Yet you targeted Caz. Did you really Persolus?"

[Persolus]

"Yet you targeted Caz. Did you really Persolus?"

as i said: can wrap around. I was explicitly told that the original target was included in the randomization.

My question is, who targeted *Caz*

[Athedia]

as i said: can wrap around. I was explicitly told that the original target was included in the randomization.

My question is, who targeted *Caz*

"Me. It's a harmless power, but if Caz was randomized, I should have been as well no?"

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"Now, random events do happen. Despite what people may think, the blackjack game is completely fair and the time I dealt myself blackjack it wasn't staged. But I acknowledge you might not believe that. So, pardon my skepticism on that the night you targeted Caz, a night I had already said that if I was not jailed I would be suspecting Caz, it just happened to land back on me. You are saying Caz got extremely lucky there and you purposefully tried to make him look like a wolf to me. Do you understand how this looks very bad for you?"

[Let'sGetKraken]

I targeted you. I thought you had gotten feedback about it.

Wait. Has ANYONE gotten feedback from Cazero's power? Lentrax didn't.

Ugh. In a workshop rn. Damn you, flat.

[Persolus]

"Me. It's a harmless power, but if Caz was randomized, I should have been as well no?"

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"Now, random events do happen. Despite what people may think, the blackjack game is completely fair and the time I dealt myself blackjack it wasn't staged. But I acknowledge you might not believe that. So, pardon my skepticism on that the night you targeted Caz, a night I had already said that if I was not jailed I would be suspecting Caz, it just happened to land back on me. You are saying Caz got extremely lucky there and you purposefully tried to make him look like a wolf to me. Do you understand how this looks very bad for you?"

No, i actually completely forgot that you and caz had an interaction.
Totally don't blame you for not believe me on that though!

[Athedia]

Wait. Has ANYONE gotten feedback from Cazero's power? Lentrax didn't.

Ugh. In a workshop rn. Damn you, flat.

"Lentrax recieved the phrase 'No results' which I also received. It is specifically different than the phrase that happens if I get nothing from my power, which I am not sharing at the moment."

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All I can say is that I really do feel out of my depth here. I honestly have no idea what I am supposed to be looking for or how to potentially spot whatever I am trying to see.

So at this point, I actually feel I need a couple of things answered.

What is a vig? And why is that significant?

What is NAI?

Oh. And for clarity's sake, I will reveal part of my power, because it is actually important now that I re-read the wording on it. Which may also be too much, idk...

I get one negation of a wolf power, even a kill. And since I didn't get a notification of the results of the rest of my power, that clears Cazero for me.

But... yeah...

"Actually wait, did you receive no results or just did not receive a result. I may have misread this."

[Lentrax]

I did not receive the phrase “No results.”

I merely stated that, after Caz said I was targeted by them, I did not receive any notification of being targeted by anything.

So, if Caz’s power was randomized by this other thing, it may have gone to someone else, and would Caz even have gotten a notice of the target changing?

If he did, then he is lying.

If he did not, then we are left where we start, with nothing.

[Cazero]

Wait. Has ANYONE gotten feedback from Cazero's power? Lentrax didn't.

Cao got a lack of feedback when he should have gotten something N1, when he targeted me who jailed myself.

I get no feedback on my jailing. Can't confirm if it's been moved.

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Persolus, how does the randomization works, exactly? Is each power retargeted randomly separately, or is there a single random target picked for all redirections?

[Persolus]

Cao got a lack of feedback when he should have gotten something N1, when he targeted me who jailed myself.

I get no feedback on my jailing. Can't confirm if it's been moved.

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Persolus, how does the randomization works, exactly? Is each power retargeted randomly separately, or is there a single random target picked for all redirections?

No clue about that part. I've told you all I know about my power.

[bladescape]

@Merel

Was hoping for your top wolves. Those are just the obvious town list +1 other thought.

----

Persolus honestly doesn't feel legit to me. Unless he has been the most unlucky person in existence. Which is annoying because I had ruled him out as wolf...

Who are you targeting tonight Pers? Ath, Does your power give a result that would tell you if you've been redirected?

[Persolus]

@Merel

Was hoping for your top wolves. Those are just the obvious town list +1 other thought.

----

Persolus honestly doesn't feel legit to me. Unless he has been the most unlucky person in existence. Which is annoying because I had ruled him out as wolf...

Who are you targeting tonight Pers? Ath, Does your power give a result that would tell you if you've been redirected?

Planning to target myself.

[Athedia]

@Merel

Was hoping for your top wolves. Those are just the obvious town list +1 other thought.

----

Persolus honestly doesn't feel legit to me. Unless he has been the most unlucky person in existence. Which is annoying because I had ruled him out as wolf...

Who are you targeting tonight Pers? Ath, Does your power give a result that would tell you if you've been redirected?

"It hasn't successfully worked yet, as I apparently target the wrong people but I get a No _____ instead of a No Results if it works." The sound of static covered part of Athedia's speech.

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"Also I thought you power couldn't effect you?"