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2024-03-11, 04:11 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
I'm starting to think that maybe voting Illven is the best option, since there's basically no chance we're killing a townie. Best case, she's a wolf who lied about having an extra life. Medium case, she's a wolf who's honest about having an extra life. Worst case, she's a townie who's honest about having an extra life. The latter two aren't great, but at least it's not an intant loss and I think the chances of being the forst one are decent.
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Well, that spelling should be proof of my diminished mental capacity at the moment, at least.
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2024-03-11, 04:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
If they're town we then lose if wolves kill and Kraken doesn't shoot a wolf.
That's not safe at all.
BCH, just to probe your brain a bit:
You think Kraken is hard town. You seem to have narrowed it down to deciding me/Lentrax or Ath/Illven. (With maybe a side of "Persolus is lying.")
Gth right now can you explain how you'd rank the wolf team options and, more importantly to me, why you have each one as they are?
I feel like every post today has been "this could be true. But x as well." Which is something I expect out of you but doesn't help me properly gauge your mindset atm"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2024-03-11, 04:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Like.... somewhat? I don't know. I also see frustrated, vindicated town in how Athedia is playing. I feel like if she was a wolf she'd be a bit more chill about it, from a meta perspective? Like I could very much be wrong. Let me go back and read through my wallpost.
I am also feeling very not confident right now - pretty much all my wolfreads this game have been wrong.
I also don't know if Illven's two lives extend to being yeeted. Hm. That would, uh, suck.
Anyway, it's close, but theoretically if BCH doesn't stop me from shooting, good chances it hits one of those wolves, even with Persolus' random, unless Persolus is actually a wolf (but like, gah). But yes, we do need to hit today or the chances of this being winnable approaches zero.
Worse case, no, the game ends on the spot. If you're a wolf, then you RB me, and kill tonight, and control the vote with Persolus. That is GG for the wolves and this take actually makes me suspect you a bit more.
I do think this unpairs BCH and Illven a bit, though, which means that maybe Athedia is the best yeet here?
Watch Persolus be a wolf after all. I will be angry at flat for not making the neutrals symmetrical but I genuinely could see that -
WAIT. Is Illven a neutral who doesn't know her wincon, which is why she's been so fixated on that? would that mean Persolus is lying?
Don't mind me, just having a mental breakdown over here. Need to go back and read.Loser of Total War: Rise of Kingdoms
as
The Astral Collective
Winner of Total War: Hanrui 3
as
The Four Courts of Hanrui/The Equinox League
Plausible Victor of Total War: Pricipia
as
The Chrysaorian Hegemony
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2024-03-11, 04:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2012
- Location
- In the Final Frontier
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Well. It is a bastard game, so there’s a chance none of us actually knows how to win.
And it’s also possible none of us could win.
Because need I remind you all, “the game was rigged from the start.”
Co-Founder of LUTAS.
For all you lesser superheroes out there.
Custom STO avatar by Durkoala.
A novella about a wizard and a rock star, cross-dimensional travel, and healing wounds neither knew were there.
Spoiler: Online stuffsLentrax has a Deviantart now, check it out!
Streaming Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 11CST on Twitch.
Follow me on Twitter!
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2024-03-11, 04:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
is this a typo, or a freudian slip indicating that Persolus is actually a wolf?
Like here's my thought. If we are SURE BCH is town, we can yeet Persolus and I can shoot Athedia tonight (depending on how that flip). If either of them are a wolf, we have a chance tomorrow. However, if BCH is a wolf and we yeet Persolus instead, and BCH is being honest about being a voider, then we have almost certainly lost.
Persolus is the only person today who GUARANTEED removes a vote for the wolf team - assuming he isn't a jester of some sort.
Thoughts?Loser of Total War: Rise of Kingdoms
as
The Astral Collective
Winner of Total War: Hanrui 3
as
The Four Courts of Hanrui/The Equinox League
Plausible Victor of Total War: Pricipia
as
The Chrysaorian Hegemony
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2024-03-11, 04:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
I also sussed BCH for that post tbh. Hence me asking their mindset.
I... honestly gut I think Persolus is neutral. But it does guarantee we get one wolf-aligned vote out of the way even if I'm right.
And if I'm wrong that'd be great.
Honestly BCH as town probably should've suggested that as the safest yeet"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2024-03-11, 04:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"Hard town" might be overstating it, it's more that I think he's likely enough that I'm discarding that risk right now. But sure, for the purposes of this discussion, I'm pretty much clearing him.
I think the most likely wolf team is probably Athedia and Illven, more or less due to process of elimination. If not those two, then probably Illven and Persolus, Athedia and Persolus or you and Lentrax, more or less in that order of probability. To be honest, I don't really have the focus and energy to specfiy why everyone's where they are, the short version is basically just who have acted like I would expect wolves to act (which I realize is a deeply unsatisifying answer, sorry. I don't think I'll be much help at the moment).
And yes, obviously we're still close to losing if we vote Illven and she's town, my point was just that unlike yeeting someone else who turns out to be town, there's still a way forward.
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2024-03-11, 04:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
@BCH what about yeeting Persolus?
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2024-03-11, 04:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
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2024-03-11, 04:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Illven - For Persolus.
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2024-03-11, 04:58 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Which is fair, I did frame it that way.
Illven - Persolus.
Also, a bit of a meta read but like, Athedia seems to be taking being suspected a bit personally and has been a somewhat heated with people in arguments, so OOG I will be a bit displeased if that's all just an act.
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Also also Blade if you have been toying with us since D3 and this is all an act I'm not saying I'll declare war in TW but like, watch your back.Loser of Total War: Rise of Kingdoms
as
The Astral Collective
Winner of Total War: Hanrui 3
as
The Four Courts of Hanrui/The Equinox League
Plausible Victor of Total War: Pricipia
as
The Chrysaorian Hegemony
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2024-03-11, 05:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Keystone of the USA
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"Wait is it BCH vote or Illven for for Persolus. I may have messed up my count."
Moved my stuff over to HERE!
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2024-03-11, 06:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2024-03-11, 06:18 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2021
- Gender
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2024-03-11, 07:08 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2012
- Location
- In the Final Frontier
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Illven to get to Persolus
Co-Founder of LUTAS.
For all you lesser superheroes out there.
Custom STO avatar by Durkoala.
A novella about a wizard and a rock star, cross-dimensional travel, and healing wounds neither knew were there.
Spoiler: Online stuffsLentrax has a Deviantart now, check it out!
Streaming Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 11CST on Twitch.
Follow me on Twitter!
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2024-03-11, 08:50 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Loser of Total War: Rise of Kingdoms
as
The Astral Collective
Winner of Total War: Hanrui 3
as
The Four Courts of Hanrui/The Equinox League
Plausible Victor of Total War: Pricipia
as
The Chrysaorian Hegemony
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2024-03-11, 09:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Keystone of the USA
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"Understood, Illven I had the wrong lucky number. I also need to finish this hand."
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"Now lets see. Persolus, 19. Merel, may she rest in peace, 11. Kraken, 20." Athedia, the Blackjack Dealer, flipped over her hidden card for the last time. A nine of clubs.
🃝🃙
Spoiler: Persolus🃔🃗🂡🃇
Spoiler: MerelBlackbird🃈🃓
Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken🃖🂭🂴
"Merel goes bust, Persolus draws and gets his chips returned and Kraken, you are our final winner."
She presented the two of them with their returned bet and their winnings, sweeping the remnants of Merel's bet over to her side. She gathered the shoe, the cards and the discard pile and stashed them away neatly.
"Now just gambling with our lives. A much less fun game."Moved my stuff over to HERE!
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2024-03-11, 10:39 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2008
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
My apologies Illven Playing dnd, just here to fix my vote.
Last edited by Illven; 2024-03-11 at 10:39 PM.
Avatar by Honest Tiefling
Won as Good Mayans on a science victory GMR 4. Won as Sweden on a science victory GMR 7. Won as Desert England on a concession victory GMR 8 Lost as Poland in GMR 3. Lost as Japan in GMR 5, Surrendered as Korea in GMR 10. Surrendered as Bad Maya in GMR 11, Lost as Shoshone in GMR 13.
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2024-03-11, 11:06 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2015
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Day 6 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.
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2024-03-12, 01:03 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2015
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Resigned to their fate, several of the survivors began to act out with what little power they still clung to. Tables and chairs were reduced to kindling, chips and cards littered the floor. Soon, the Casino bore as many scars as the group felt.
Throughout the day, the thugs made regular visits to stare icily at the damage, but they took no actions against the group. They mainly focused on recovering what could still be used, though they seemed to pay special attention to a certain roulette table. Two of the legs had been broken off, arming a pair in the group with rudimentary clubs. The table underneath the wheel was exposed, and a system of wires and magnets was clearly visible. Yet another reminder of just how stacked the odds are against you all.
A metallic *clunk* draws everyone's gaze as Yes Man begins to flicker new numbers across its screen. With no visible movement from the Securitron, the noise appears to have been from some internal mechanism sliding into place.
Spoiler: Yes Man
A crash and a muffled curse tear your focus away from the screen. A man in the group had snuck away and was fiddling with the roulette table. One of the remaining legs had finally buckled under the strain and the rest had come crashing down; only a desperate lunge had spared the man from getting crushed. Standing to brush himself off, a holotag clatters to the ground from underneath his coat. At once, you all recognize it as the tag the thugs stole from the late Paladin. The man's eyes open wide and he raises his hands protectively in front of him, stammering out futile explanations. With a roar, the group rushes him and metes out what little justice they can claim. Searching the body, notes between the man and the thugs are found, confirming his ill intent.
bladescape has been busted. He was Nero.
Night 6 has begun and will end in ~22 hours.
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2024-03-12, 01:10 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Huh. That should make things easier. I guess we have AV to thank? (Or possibly the wolves got screwed by a bastard mechanic yet again?)
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2024-03-12, 06:19 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Keystone of the USA
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"Oh thank God, or AV. If that was AV I owe you so much. I seriously felt like I was going insane. So .. I guess this means Lentrax has some real explaining to do. Don't you 'lover'?"
Moved my stuff over to HERE!
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2024-03-12, 06:30 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Well here I am, covered in lint and thoroughly embarassed.
I owe Athedia yet another apology (same to Illven, really, though I think my logic was largely sound) and AV my eternal gratitude, assuming that it was her intervention.
So, assuming that the death flips are not randomized and meaningless (unlikely, since Lentrax is still alive and Blade claimed lovers), there are two scenarios here.
1) There is only one wolf left, Lentrax. With Persolus in the game, we cannot reliably block or shoot Lentrax, from my understanding - though Persolus could just be bluffing, who knows. Even so, Lentrax kills one of us, and town has a three to two majority tomorrow and whoever survives out of me, Illven, Athedia, and BCH votes Lentrax for the win. This bafflingly means that Bladescape either used a 1/game power to highjack a wagon from yeeting town to yeeting a fellow wolf, or else took credit for it without knowing why it happened. Gah. Though who knows, I think AV mentioned that she could hijack three times per game so maybe we've got this anyhow?
2) There are two wolves left, one of whom is Lentrax. This would mean that there were 6/18 wolf-aligned individuals at game start, which is possible but seems high. In this scenario, one of the wolves could be Athedia, which would explain why Bladescape did the highjack if it actually happened, because I am still absolutely shocked at how that turned out (even if I think Athedia is likely town at this point based on how Blade turned on her D5). In this scenario, if I don't shoot tonight, we lose, since wolves will have a three to two majority tomorrow with Persolus - but if I do shoot, it's a 2/5ths chance that it hits a wolf.
So that's where I'm sitting. Logic checks out? I am leaning towards "Lentrax is the last wolf", since I feel like 25% is roughly the ratio of wolf-aligned you want in a game. In which case we sit pretty. Even in the second scenario, the chances that I hit a wolf are low enough that it's not worth shooting anyhow.
Though if Persolus targets Lentrax... there's a chance they random the wolf-kill onto themselves (assuming I am reading this right, I will double-check), which is hilarious. 25% chance of winning the game outright for town.
So, Persolus... I guess the question is... are you feeling lucky?Last edited by Let'sGetKraken; 2024-03-12 at 06:32 AM.
Loser of Total War: Rise of Kingdoms
as
The Astral Collective
Winner of Total War: Hanrui 3
as
The Four Courts of Hanrui/The Equinox League
Plausible Victor of Total War: Pricipia
as
The Chrysaorian Hegemony
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2024-03-12, 07:07 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
If I understand it correctly (and Persolus was honest about his power, which is obviously a big if), targeting Lentrax would randomize Lentrax's target and anyone targeting Lentrax, so presumbly it wouldn't redirect Lentrax killing anyone.
And yeah, I feel like Lentrax being the last wolf is the most likely answer, I think yesterday would've been different if it had three wolves (and a wolf-friendly neutral). Of course, assuming the most likely answer is the truth hasn't always worked out great this game.
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2024-03-12, 07:17 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Keystone of the USA
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"Persolus I assume can win with town alive, so he just has to survive. Also if there were three wolves, then yesterday's vote makes no sense. They could have forced a tie. Unless and I doubt this is the case, the two remaining wolves are lovers are Illven and Lentrax and Blade did have a vote hijack power but it would kill himself. Which doesn't match up. By the way Nero was another head of a casino who was aligning himself with Caeser's Legion. Head of Omertas. Benny was head of the Chairmen. Which means I suspect we might have Marjorie remaining, head of the White Glove Society found at the Ultra Luxe, a place Lentrax did mention. And it would make sense for House and the heads of the Three Families to be the wolves. Also for someone who wasn't expressing much information in the way of New Vegas to suddenly know about the very optional quests with Ted Gunderson."
Moved my stuff over to HERE!
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2024-03-12, 07:18 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2012
- Location
- In the Final Frontier
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
I am actually as confused by this turn as anyone else. My power did, in fact, make me and blade lovers. So I am as confused about still being here as you all are.
Co-Founder of LUTAS.
For all you lesser superheroes out there.
Custom STO avatar by Durkoala.
A novella about a wizard and a rock star, cross-dimensional travel, and healing wounds neither knew were there.
Spoiler: Online stuffsLentrax has a Deviantart now, check it out!
Streaming Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 11CST on Twitch.
Follow me on Twitter!
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2024-03-12, 07:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Keystone of the USA
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"Who was the first person to state that Bladescape was town cleared? It might be a long night and we should get all the details we can before the next day. Also Lentrax, going to need more than that."
Moved my stuff over to HERE!
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2024-03-12, 07:26 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2012
- Location
- In the Final Frontier
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
Until I figure that out myself, that is all I have.
Co-Founder of LUTAS.
For all you lesser superheroes out there.
Custom STO avatar by Durkoala.
A novella about a wizard and a rock star, cross-dimensional travel, and healing wounds neither knew were there.
Spoiler: Online stuffsLentrax has a Deviantart now, check it out!
Streaming Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 11CST on Twitch.
Follow me on Twitter!
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2024-03-12, 07:33 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Keystone of the USA
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
"I mean you can share information from your chat. You can share more about your role. Right now it doesn't look good for you."
Moved my stuff over to HERE!
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2024-03-12, 03:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
Re: WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions
I mean, you were right! If only we had listened.
I mean, given how thoroughly the hijack pocketed me, I'm not going to be insufferable (well, no more than usual), but I do need to trust my instincts a little more. Regardless of how this ends, blade had me thoroughly fooled - I even thought "both the previous yeets were ones that blade pushed for" yesterday before going "no no, he yanked the yeet onto a wolf when a town would have otherwise died".Last edited by Let'sGetKraken; 2024-03-12 at 03:29 PM.
Loser of Total War: Rise of Kingdoms
as
The Astral Collective
Winner of Total War: Hanrui 3
as
The Four Courts of Hanrui/The Equinox League
Plausible Victor of Total War: Pricipia
as
The Chrysaorian Hegemony