WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Persolus]

"It hasn't successfully worked yet, as I apparently target the wrong people but I get a No _____ instead of a No Results if it works." The sound of static covered part of Athedia's speech.

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"Also I thought you power couldn't effect you?"

Not quite what i said. My power makes it so, when randomised, it can't reflect the target onto me.

So say i targeted a wolf with my power, and they wanted to kill you. their target could now be anyone, including themselves, but NOT including me.

Whereas if i target myself, i will randomly end up targeting someone else with nothing and anyone targeting me will be redirected to someone else.

[at least, that's how i understand it.]

[MerelBlackbird]

@Merel

Was hoping for your top wolves. Those are just the obvious town list +1 other thought.

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Persolus honestly doesn't feel legit to me. Unless he has been the most unlucky person in existence. Which is annoying because I had ruled him out as wolf...

Who are you targeting tonight Pers? Ath, Does your power give a result that would tell you if you've been redirected?

Thinking *grabs notepad*

Hmm. If all the wolves are in {Illven (long shot-ish), Lentrax, Persolus, Book Wombat, LetsGetKraken (long shot), BatCatHat} them I'm sunk and you may as well kill me now for all the help I'll be. (Although now I realize I might get left alive as lynch bait ).

But out of those probably Persolus for the top wolf (and I swear I didn't see you suspected him before I typed that XD!!)

[Athedia]

"What makes Illven such a longshot?"

[MerelBlackbird]

"What makes Illven such a longshot?"

Mostly participation levels. But. Not much of a long shot, just more than the others. Not by that much more and subject to change, at least until I get through some backreading and light ISO work.

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As I work: Between Illven and Kraken, JeenLeen was halfheartedly protecting Kraken and pushing Illven through most of D1, with a touch of waffling on Kraken. Thoughts?

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BatCatHat spends most of D1 theorizing on the delayed narrator death. But not much else...

[bladescape]

The Jeen interactions were a good chunk of why I started last day on Kraken.

I like Merel's thinking process right now, as much as extracting had required direct request =P So I'm just gonna shrug and go back to townreading her.

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I have bch as lightly town but idr why. I'll recheck and come back to you on that

[Let'sGetKraken]

The Jeen interactions were a good chunk of why I started last day on Kraken.

I like Merel's thinking process right now, as much as extracting had required direct request =P So I'm just gonna shrug and go back to townreading her.

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I have bch as lightly town but idr why. I'll recheck and come back to you on that

If only you had 3000 words summarizing the events of the first three days. If only. :p

[Lentrax]

Thinking *grabs notepad*

Hmm. If all the wolves are in {Illven (long shot-ish), Lentrax, Persolus, Book Wombat, LetsGetKraken (long shot), BatCatHat} them I'm sunk and you may as well kill me now for all the help I'll be. (Although now I realize I might get left alive as lynch bait ).

But out of those probably Persolus for the top wolf (and I swear I didn't see you suspected him before I typed that XD!!)

I’m actually kinda curious as to how I made the list of wolves. And I don’t really think Pers is a wolf, and I’d want to get rid of him just to keep the amount of roulette we seem to be playing down to a minimum, but we can’t assume to be in a good position wolf-wise.

So I guess it’s more roulette.

I’ll put my caps on the first 16.

[Athedia]

"Athedia, Bladescape, MerelBlackbird, Illven, Lentrax, Persolus, Cazero, Book Wombat, Let'sGetKraken, BatCatHat. We know we had 2 wolves and with 18 players we are looking at ... 1? 2 more? 2 more still puts it at under 25%. BookWombat as always has been quiet. Lentrax is to new to develop any true reads off of. I honestly suspect Illven more for not having spoken much. And it is curious Blade that you agree with Merel's take."

[Let'sGetKraken]

"Athedia, Bladescape, MerelBlackbird, Illven, Lentrax, Persolus, Cazero, Book Wombat, Let'sGetKraken, BatCatHat. We know we had 2 wolves and with 18 players we are looking at ... 1? 2 more? 2 more still puts it at under 25%. BookWombat as always has been quiet. Lentrax is to new to develop any true reads off of. I honestly suspect Illven more for not having spoken much. And it is curious Blade that you agree with Merel's take."

If Blade is a wolf, there are two options:

1) You and Blade are paired and are the remaining wolves.
2) There are three wolves remaining, in which case we are somewhat screwed, of which you and Blade are two of the wolves.

There are no other reasonable options for Blade to use the 1/game redirect to save you and kill Jeen. I buy that Blade would bus a wolf for cred; I don't think that he would use a 1/game power to gain cred unless it was W/W wagons. So the chance that Merel and Blade are the remaining wolves is unlikely.

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I also think it's unlikely that Flat gives a five-wolf team a vote hijack; I buy that much more with four wolves. So again, very unlikely we have to worry about both Blade and Merel being wolves.

[bladescape]

"Athedia, Bladescape, MerelBlackbird, Illven, Lentrax, Persolus, Cazero, Book Wombat, Let'sGetKraken, BatCatHat. We know we had 2 wolves and with 18 players we are looking at ... 1? 2 more? 2 more still puts it at under 25%. BookWombat as always has been quiet. Lentrax is to new to develop any true reads off of. I honestly suspect Illven more for not having spoken much. And it is curious Blade that you agree with Merel's take."

Curious how?

My read of Kraken was obvious.

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Oh unless you mean the Illven part. Never said I agreed with that. I like the thought process for it tho.

[Athedia]

Curious how?

My read of Kraken was obvious.

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Oh unless you mean the Illven part. Never said I agreed with that. I like the thought process for it tho.

"Illven. I am just getting paranoid. The odds are still in our favor, but maybe folks like Book Wombat should speak up more. Also just so you know I am targetting the one doing best at my table."

[flat_footed]

Night 4 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[flat_footed]

Numbers dwindling, the group's arguments are forgotten. Hope for survival has not quite run out yet.. though the path through seems all but lost to you. The few faint sparks of hope come from whispered voices of daring rescues and gallant rescuers. More than a few involve the group rising as one and fighting through the labyrinthine Casino, before winning your freedom in the surrounding Wasteland. Others speak of individuals like the Lone Wanderer; people who would fight through hell to save their fellow man.

One voice drowns out the others, not with it's volume, but with its reverence. The low hum of whispers die down as ears strain to hear him speak of brotherhood and respect. Of dedicating your life to a cause greater than yourself, amid brothers and sisters who would lay down their life if needed. A pained smile cracks across his face as he turns his head to the heavens, imagining the glory of steel glinting under the sun and the march of boots across carpeted floor. "We have a duty to preserve the past. In my heart, there is no better way to do so than through the minds and voices of those who have lived it. We've outlasted the end of the world. We'll outlast these upstarts."

A low chuckle startles you all as you see the group of men has returned while you focused on the man's words. "Well, well. We were wondering if one of you rats managed to claw your way into here." The thugs grab the man roughly and jerk him to his feet, the violent motion causing a pair of holotags to fall loose against his chest. A low whistle comes from a small, grungy man as he rips the tags from the man's neck. "Looks like you're the real deal, sure enough. Not so scary without your shell, ain't ya?"

Fumbling with his suit jacket, the shorter man produces a stained note from his front pocket. "The boss had a little note prepared for just such an occasion. We will cast down your Codex and bask in the dying agony of those who hold it dear." A shadow of concern flickers across the scarred man's face as he refolds and replaces the note into his breast pocket with a shiver. "I'd hate to be you right about now." With a curt motion, the suits and the man follow the familiar path through the back of the Casino, lost to sight and lost to hope.

Cazero has been busted. He was a Paladin of the Brotherhood of Steel.

No sooner did the men vanish from sight than Yes Man slowly rolled his way towards you all. His screen dim and angled down, he doesn't acknowledge anyone around him, even brushing against several people without issue. For better or worse, his radiant grin does little more than shine down on the carpet.

Day Five has begun and will end in ~46 hours.

[Batcathat]

I have bch as lightly town but idr why. I'll recheck and come back to you on that

I'd like to think that the fact that I was the first to make anything resembling a case against Jeen and then spent most of two days trying to get him killed would make me more than a light townread. Then again, that it apperantly didn't probably makes me less likely to get NK'd so I suppose I shouldn't complain too much.

Anyhow, no lucky number today (despite a roll, complete with cheeky comment ). So I wonder if we should assume that our votes won't be shifted today?

I have some new thoughts, but my suspicions against Let'sGetKraken remains.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Again, I am really questioning why Illven and Merel have gotten passes here. Meren's town reads have been sticking strictly to the accepted consensus and Illven has been alternatively AFK/not contributing.

I am willing to claim, but given that there is no lucky number today would dramatically prefer to claim tomorrow, for reasons I would not like to share.

I am also open to wagoning Persolus.

[Persolus]

I would prefer not to get wagoned, since I win by surviving, but I suppose i left myself wide open for that by claiming.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I would prefer not to get wagoned, since I win by surviving, but I suppose i left myself wide open for that by claiming.

I am happy to leave you alive if you promise not to use your power for the duration of the game, honestly.

[Illven]

Again, I am really questioning why Illven and Merel have gotten passes here. Meren's town reads have been sticking strictly to the accepted consensus and Illven has been alternatively AFK/not contributing.

I have been sucked into Baldur's gate 3 hell. (I'm level 6!)

On the otherhand I promised to play this game and don't have a good excuse sides Saturday being my birthday (and friday being part of the I'm off so birthday weekend) so yeah, sorry.


Onto a read.

Merel can you explain this post, or am I parsing this wrong?

https://forums.giantitp.com/showsing...&postcount=422

Like are you saying if all the wolves are in any of those 6 out of.....what 9 players left. You're useless?

Like obviously whether you're a wolf or not you're not going to say, but that means you must sus Blade or Athedia? And you specifically say in other posts you think they are clear.


Do you mean the reverse? That all the remaining wolves must be in those 6, and if not then you're useless?

[Persolus]

I am happy to leave you alive if you promise not to use your power for the duration of the game, honestly.

What about if i agree to only use it on myself?

[Let'sGetKraken]

Or, rather, you use it to protect Blade. That works better. Like I've said, if Blade/Athedia are the wolves here, they deserve the win.

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What about if i agree to only use it on myself?

Thing about this, though, is that if you are a wolf claiming neutral, this is in-character behaviour. If you use it to protect Blade, you show you're willing to work with town. Plus, not like wolves are going to waste a NK on you, and if we have any NK ability, it's not going your way while you're being helpful.

[Persolus]

Or, rather, you use it to protect Blade. That works better. Like I've said, if Blade/Athedia are the wolves here, they deserve the win.

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Thing about this, though, is that if you are a wolf claiming neutral, this is in-character behaviour. If you use it to protect Blade, you show you're willing to work with town. Plus, not like wolves are going to waste a NK on you, and if we have any NK ability, it's not going your way while you're being helpful.

That's fair enough!

I will remind you that if i use it on Blade, it is not a perfect protection. The target could randomly be the same person.

However, I am fully willing to try!

[Batcathat]

Again, I am really questioning why Illven and Merel have gotten passes here.

It's certainly possible either or both of them are wolves (I would say I'm slightly suspicious of Illven and slightly townreading Merel, both for rather shaky reasons) but to be frank I'm more suspicious of you.

Like I've said, if Blade/Athedia are the wolves here, they deserve the win.

On that we more or less agree, at least. I could see either being a wolf (blade a little more likely than Athedia, I think) but those scenarios seem unlikely enough that unless something majorly changes, I've more or less decided to trust them.

BatCatHat spends most of D1 theorizing on the delayed narrator death. But not much else...

More out of curiosity than anything else, what are you basing this on? Unless I'm more forgetful than usual I think I mentioned flat's death once or twice and basically said I thought it probably didn't mean anything.

[Let'sGetKraken]

It's certainly possible either or both of them are wolves (I would say I'm slightly suspicious of Illven and slightly townreading Merel, both for rather shaky reasons) but to be frank I'm more suspicious of you.



On that we more or less agree, at least. I could see either being a wolf (blade a little more likely than Athedia, I think) but those scenarios seem unlikely enough that unless something majorly changes, I've more or less decided to trust them.



More out of curiosity than anything else, what are you basing this on? Unless I'm more forgetful than usual I think I mentioned flat's death once or twice and basically said I thought it probably didn't mean anything.

That's fair. I'm not too concerned because I can always claim, but I am hesitant to give wolves information because my powers are already situational enough. I'm more concerned with wasting time and rendering my abilities useless.

Like I said, if Blade is a wolf and Athedia is not, Blade used an incredibly powerful wolf tool (auto-voting someone 1/game) when it was Town/Wolf wagons, to save the town and sacrifice the wolf, when otherwise he could have just.... done and let the chips fall where they did. The only circumstance in which I reasonably see him doing that is if it was Wolf/Wolf wagons, in which case both Athedia and Blade have to be wolves.

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That's fair enough!

I will remind you that if i use it on Blade, it is not a perfect protection. The target could randomly be the same person.

However, I am fully willing to try!

Perfect, I am no longer willing to wagon Persolus today. It's possible he's a wolf, for sure, but I want to encourage neutrals to townside while town :P

[Batcathat]

Like I said, if Blade is a wolf and Athedia is not, Blade used an incredibly powerful wolf tool (auto-voting someone 1/game) when it was Town/Wolf wagons, to save the town and sacrifice the wolf, when otherwise he could have just.... done and let the chips fall where they did. The only circumstance in which I reasonably see him doing that is if it was Wolf/Wolf wagons, in which case both Athedia and Blade have to be wolves.

We only have blade's word that is what happened though. Don't get me wrong, it is the most likely explanation but I wouldn't put it completely past blade to see AV's suggestion that someone hijacked the vote (which in this scenario didn't happen, Jeen just "won" the tie, the fluff was misleading and the lack of numbers was just due to the lucky number being zero) and take credit for it. Of course, that would mean him basically risking getting counter-claimed in case someone actually hijacked the vote, all to get a little more towncred from a bussing that should already get him a decent amount. It's a very unlikely scenario, but it exists.

[Athedia]

We only have blade's word that is what happened though. Don't get me wrong, it is the most likely explanation but I wouldn't put it completely past blade to see AV's suggestion that someone hijacked the vote (which in this scenario didn't happen, Jeen just "won" the tie, the fluff was misleading and the lack of numbers was just due to the lucky number being zero) and take credit for it. Of course, that would mean him basically risking getting counter-claimed in case someone actually hijacked the vote, all to get a little more towncred from a bussing that should already get him a decent amount. It's a very unlikely scenario, but it exists.

"I was trying to figure out where 'Blade used a power' came from because as we had established Jeen had reached the vote count before me. I will also let folks know that I used my power against Kraken last night and got my usual answer which was so illuminating and useful. If at the end of the game I find out that my power could never actually give information I will be rather annoyed."

[MerelBlackbird]

I have been sucked into Baldur's gate 3 hell. (I'm level 6!)

On the otherhand I promised to play this game and don't have a good excuse sides Saturday being my birthday (and friday being part of the I'm off so birthday weekend) so yeah, sorry.


Onto a read.

Merel can you explain this post, or am I parsing this wrong?

(422)

Like are you saying if all the wolves are in any of those 6 out of.....what 9 players left. You're useless?

Like obviously whether you're a wolf or not you're not going to say, but that means you must sus Blade or Athedia? And you specifically say in other posts you think they are clear.


Do you mean the reverse? That all the remaining wolves must be in those 6, and if not then you're useless?

I was... hmm. I could have been clearer on that. What I meant was that in the pool of players on my list, there aren't that many players I think I can read. So I don't think I'll be a lot of help sorting them.

[bladescape]

@BookWombat

I'm gonna need you to gimme where you're heads at as I can't keep ignoring you and it's now late in the game.

Re: Persolus targeting

Would love the pseudo protection but it'd be interesting to see him target Lentrax. Since Lentrax is repping an anti wolf shield.

Though actually we'd need a power that could verify if it worked or not for that to be useful and idk on that.

@illven

Can you gimme a glimpse at your head in a reads list? I'm not expecting necessarily a Kraken level but I want to see your logic process.

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I have a temptation to demand Kraken claim because this hovering it over our heads as "better if wolves don't know!!!" Is kinda irking me lmao.

This is not an intelligent reason tho.

I also do feel like I've been giving one of the wolves a free pass somewhere because normally I die earlier than this if I'm not shielding a wolf.

So imma reread d1/2 and see what I think.

But that'll probably happen later because I gotta busy morning.

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I instantly saw I used a wrong you're after I posted. Kill me

[Let'sGetKraken]

@BookWombat

I'm gonna need you to gimme where you're heads at as I can't keep ignoring you and it's now late in the game.

Re: Persolus targeting

Would love the pseudo protection but it'd be interesting to see him target Lentrax. Since Lentrax is repping an anti wolf shield.

Though actually we'd need a power that could verify if it worked or not for that to be useful and idk on that.

@illven

Can you gimme a glimpse at your head in a reads list? I'm not expecting necessarily a Kraken level but I want to see your logic process.

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I have a temptation to demand Kraken claim because this hovering it over our heads as "better if wolves don't know!!!" Is kinda irking me lmao.

This is not an intelligent reason tho.

I also do feel like I've been giving one of the wolves a free pass somewhere because normally I die earlier than this if I'm not shielding a wolf.

So imma reread d1/2 and see what I think.

But that'll probably happen later because I gotta busy morning.

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I instantly saw I used a wrong you're after I posted. Kill me

To be clear, it's just disruptable and extremely high-impact in a very narrow, specific situation, which is why I keep bringing it up.

I will be open to claiming tomorrow though, assuming I/we make it that long, as I think it's prudent to share info when the pool gets that small. And at that point the chances that it's relevant is... limited.

[MerelBlackbird]

It's certainly possible either or both of them are wolves (I would say I'm slightly suspicious of Illven and slightly townreading Merel, both for rather shaky reasons) but to be frank I'm more suspicious of you.



On that we more or less agree, at least. I could see either being a wolf (blade a little more likely than Athedia, I think) but those scenarios seem unlikely enough that unless something majorly changes, I've more or less decided to trust them.



More out of curiosity than anything else, what are you basing this on? Unless I'm more forgetful than usual I think I mentioned flat's death once or twice and basically said I thought it probably didn't mean anything.

I'd read about 2/3 of the way through D1 and in all the posts so far more than half each post was about bastard mechanics. Although this was the kind of thing I should have put in my notebook and not immediately posted, I was just keeping running track as I reviewed.

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Reading back, I just discovered that AV did maths when Cao was lynched that showed an extra 13 votes getting dumped on her. Hmm. Who did that? And how did I miss it?

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'd read about 2/3 of the way through D1 and in all the posts so far more than half each post was about bastard mechanics. Although this was the kind of thing I should have put in my notebook and not immediately posted, I was just keeping running track as I reviewed.

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Reading back, I just discovered that AV did maths when Cao was lynched that showed an extra 13 votes getting dumped on her. Hmm. Who did that? And how did I miss it?

I think that it was incorrect math that flat fixed, though I may be wrong. It was not me.