WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Batcathat]

I'm starting to think that maybe voting Illven is the best option, since there's basically no chance we're killing a townie. Best case, she's a wolf who lied about having an extra life. Medium case, she's a wolf who's honest about having an extra life. Worst case, she's a townie who's honest about having an extra life. The latter two aren't great, but at least it's not an intant loss and I think the chances of being the forst one are decent.

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Well, that spelling should be proof of my diminished mental capacity at the moment, at least.

[bladescape]

I'm starting to think that maybe voting Illven is the best option, since there's basically no chance we're killing a townie. Best case, she's a wolf who lied about having an extra life. Medium case, she's a wolf who's honest about having an extra life. Worst case, she's a townie who's honest about having an extra life. The latter two aren't great, but at least it's not an intant loss and I think the chances of being the forst one are decent.

If they're town we then lose if wolves kill and Kraken doesn't shoot a wolf.

That's not safe at all.

BCH, just to probe your brain a bit:
You think Kraken is hard town. You seem to have narrowed it down to deciding me/Lentrax or Ath/Illven. (With maybe a side of "Persolus is lying.")

Gth right now can you explain how you'd rank the wolf team options and, more importantly to me, why you have each one as they are?

I feel like every post today has been "this could be true. But x as well." Which is something I expect out of you but doesn't help me properly gauge your mindset atm

[Let'sGetKraken]

...

Merel's kill does make more sense if Persolus randomised the mafia kill.

Hm. Now the question would then be am I wrong on Ath and wolves tried to kill her last night.

@Kraken

Honest opinion. Does the posts and trends I've pointed out on Ath make sense/feel like what you'd see from a mafia?

You kinda haven't said anything about it except that it'd be the dramatic post I'd make if bussing

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I'm feeling inconfident in this now tbh.

Persolus I expected to be on me/himself. More himself than me. Merel's kill felt like proof that someone I townread was furry and I've been duped.

But if Ath was targetted instead and wolves only hit Merel because Persolus accidentally got in their way...

(Because wolves might have believed he was on me)

Then the Merel kill is now just "happenstance" instead of wolf.

Also re: missing wolf!bch is game over.

Missing any wolf today is game over. If Persolus is talling the truth then we technically are at lylo and now in danger of just losing if we get it wrong.

Like.... somewhat? I don't know. I also see frustrated, vindicated town in how Athedia is playing. I feel like if she was a wolf she'd be a bit more chill about it, from a meta perspective? Like I could very much be wrong. Let me go back and read through my wallpost.

I am also feeling very not confident right now - pretty much all my wolfreads this game have been wrong.

I also don't know if Illven's two lives extend to being yeeted. Hm. That would, uh, suck.

Anyway, it's close, but theoretically if BCH doesn't stop me from shooting, good chances it hits one of those wolves, even with Persolus' random, unless Persolus is actually a wolf (but like, gah). But yes, we do need to hit today or the chances of this being winnable approaches zero.

I'm starting to think that maybe voting Illven is the best option, since there's basically no chance we're killing a townie. Best case, she's a wolf who lied about having an extra life. Medium case, she's a wolf who's honest about having an extra life. Worst case, she's a townie who's honest about having an extra life. The latter two aren't great, but at least it's not an intant loss and I think the chances of being the forst one are decent.

Worse case, no, the game ends on the spot. If you're a wolf, then you RB me, and kill tonight, and control the vote with Persolus. That is GG for the wolves and this take actually makes me suspect you a bit more.

I do think this unpairs BCH and Illven a bit, though, which means that maybe Athedia is the best yeet here?

Watch Persolus be a wolf after all. I will be angry at flat for not making the neutrals symmetrical but I genuinely could see that -

WAIT. Is Illven a neutral who doesn't know her wincon, which is why she's been so fixated on that? would that mean Persolus is lying?

Don't mind me, just having a mental breakdown over here. Need to go back and read.

[Lentrax]

Well. It is a bastard game, so there’s a chance none of us actually knows how to win.

And it’s also possible none of us could win.

Because need I remind you all, “the game was rigged from the start.”

[Let'sGetKraken]

Kraken was saying, "why do we think Persolus would have done that, back when we thought he was neutral?"

You're saying, "why would Persolus do that, knowing now that he's eeeeeevil neutral?"

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and to be fair, if I had actually been a neutral like i claimed, i would have protected blade.

is this a typo, or a freudian slip indicating that Persolus is actually a wolf?

Like here's my thought. If we are SURE BCH is town, we can yeet Persolus and I can shoot Athedia tonight (depending on how that flip). If either of them are a wolf, we have a chance tomorrow. However, if BCH is a wolf and we yeet Persolus instead, and BCH is being honest about being a voider, then we have almost certainly lost.

Persolus is the only person today who GUARANTEED removes a vote for the wolf team - assuming he isn't a jester of some sort.

Thoughts?

[bladescape]

I also sussed BCH for that post tbh. Hence me asking their mindset.

I... honestly gut I think Persolus is neutral. But it does guarantee we get one wolf-aligned vote out of the way even if I'm right.

And if I'm wrong that'd be great.

Honestly BCH as town probably should've suggested that as the safest yeet

[Batcathat]

You think Kraken is hard town. You seem to have narrowed it down to deciding me/Lentrax or Ath/Illven. (With maybe a side of "Persolus is lying.")

Gth right now can you explain how you'd rank the wolf team options and, more importantly to me, why you have each one as they are?

I feel like every post today has been "this could be true. But x as well." Which is something I expect out of you but doesn't help me properly gauge your mindset atm

"Hard town" might be overstating it, it's more that I think he's likely enough that I'm discarding that risk right now. But sure, for the purposes of this discussion, I'm pretty much clearing him.

I think the most likely wolf team is probably Athedia and Illven, more or less due to process of elimination. If not those two, then probably Illven and Persolus, Athedia and Persolus or you and Lentrax, more or less in that order of probability. To be honest, I don't really have the focus and energy to specfiy why everyone's where they are, the short version is basically just who have acted like I would expect wolves to act (which I realize is a deeply unsatisifying answer, sorry. I don't think I'll be much help at the moment).

And yes, obviously we're still close to losing if we vote Illven and she's town, my point was just that unlike yeeting someone else who turns out to be town, there's still a way forward.

[bladescape]

@BCH what about yeeting Persolus?

[Batcathat]

@BCH what about yeeting Persolus?

Fair enough, that's an option. I guess I basically thought of the choice as either Athedia or Illven at this point.

[bladescape]

Illven - For Persolus.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Fair enough, that's an option. I guess I basically thought of the choice as either Athedia or Illven at this point.

Which is fair, I did frame it that way.

Illven - Persolus.

Also, a bit of a meta read but like, Athedia seems to be taking being suspected a bit personally and has been a somewhat heated with people in arguments, so OOG I will be a bit displeased if that's all just an act.

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Also also Blade if you have been toying with us since D3 and this is all an act I'm not saying I'll declare war in TW but like, watch your back.

[Athedia]

"Wait is it BCH vote or Illven for for Persolus. I may have messed up my count."

[bladescape]

Which is fair, I did frame it that way.

Illven - Persolus.

Also, a bit of a meta read but like, Athedia seems to be taking being suspected a bit personally and has been a somewhat heated with people in arguments, so OOG I will be a bit displeased if that's all just an act.

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Also also Blade if you have been toying with us since D3 and this is all an act I'm not saying I'll declare war in TW but like, watch your back.

I have never felt more tempted to claim wolf randomly.

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"Wait is it BCH vote or Illven for for Persolus. I may have messed up my count."

Illven.

BCH +2 = me.

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Living Players

1. Athedia
2. bladescape
3. Illven
4. Lentrax
5. Persolus
6. Let'sGetKraken
7. BatCatHat

The list to prove my point.

[Persolus]

I have never felt more tempted to claim wolf randomly.

The dark side beckons

[Lentrax]

Illven to get to Persolus

[Let'sGetKraken]

"Wait is it BCH vote or Illven for for Persolus. I may have messed up my count."

You'll need to move to Illven (nominally instead of actually) in the next two hours for it to count.

[Athedia]

You'll need to move to Illven (nominally instead of actually) in the next two hours for it to count.

"Understood, Illven I had the wrong lucky number. I also need to finish this hand."

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"Now lets see. Persolus, 19. Merel, may she rest in peace, 11. Kraken, 20." Athedia, the Blackjack Dealer, flipped over her hidden card for the last time. A nine of clubs.


🃝🃙

Spoiler: Persolus

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🃔🃗🂡🃇

Spoiler: MerelBlackbird

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🃈🃓

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

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🃖🂭🂴

"Merel goes bust, Persolus draws and gets his chips returned and Kraken, you are our final winner."

She presented the two of them with their returned bet and their winnings, sweeping the remnants of Merel's bet over to her side. She gathered the shoe, the cards and the discard pile and stashed them away neatly.

"Now just gambling with our lives. A much less fun game."

[Illven]

My apologies Illven Playing dnd, just here to fix my vote.

[flat_footed]

Day 6 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[flat_footed]

Resigned to their fate, several of the survivors began to act out with what little power they still clung to. Tables and chairs were reduced to kindling, chips and cards littered the floor. Soon, the Casino bore as many scars as the group felt.

Throughout the day, the thugs made regular visits to stare icily at the damage, but they took no actions against the group. They mainly focused on recovering what could still be used, though they seemed to pay special attention to a certain roulette table. Two of the legs had been broken off, arming a pair in the group with rudimentary clubs. The table underneath the wheel was exposed, and a system of wires and magnets was clearly visible. Yet another reminder of just how stacked the odds are against you all.

A metallic *clunk* draws everyone's gaze as Yes Man begins to flicker new numbers across its screen. With no visible movement from the Securitron, the noise appears to have been from some internal mechanism sliding into place.

Spoiler: Yes Man

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A crash and a muffled curse tear your focus away from the screen. A man in the group had snuck away and was fiddling with the roulette table. One of the remaining legs had finally buckled under the strain and the rest had come crashing down; only a desperate lunge had spared the man from getting crushed. Standing to brush himself off, a holotag clatters to the ground from underneath his coat. At once, you all recognize it as the tag the thugs stole from the late Paladin. The man's eyes open wide and he raises his hands protectively in front of him, stammering out futile explanations. With a roar, the group rushes him and metes out what little justice they can claim. Searching the body, notes between the man and the thugs are found, confirming his ill intent.

bladescape has been busted. He was Nero.

Night 6 has begun and will end in ~22 hours.

[Batcathat]

Huh. That should make things easier. I guess we have AV to thank? (Or possibly the wolves got screwed by a bastard mechanic yet again?)

[Athedia]

"Oh thank God, or AV. If that was AV I owe you so much. I seriously felt like I was going insane. So .. I guess this means Lentrax has some real explaining to do. Don't you 'lover'?"

[Let'sGetKraken]

Well here I am, covered in lint and thoroughly embarassed.

I owe Athedia yet another apology (same to Illven, really, though I think my logic was largely sound) and AV my eternal gratitude, assuming that it was her intervention.

So, assuming that the death flips are not randomized and meaningless (unlikely, since Lentrax is still alive and Blade claimed lovers), there are two scenarios here.

1) There is only one wolf left, Lentrax. With Persolus in the game, we cannot reliably block or shoot Lentrax, from my understanding - though Persolus could just be bluffing, who knows. Even so, Lentrax kills one of us, and town has a three to two majority tomorrow and whoever survives out of me, Illven, Athedia, and BCH votes Lentrax for the win. This bafflingly means that Bladescape either used a 1/game power to highjack a wagon from yeeting town to yeeting a fellow wolf, or else took credit for it without knowing why it happened. Gah. Though who knows, I think AV mentioned that she could hijack three times per game so maybe we've got this anyhow?

2) There are two wolves left, one of whom is Lentrax. This would mean that there were 6/18 wolf-aligned individuals at game start, which is possible but seems high. In this scenario, one of the wolves could be Athedia, which would explain why Bladescape did the highjack if it actually happened, because I am still absolutely shocked at how that turned out (even if I think Athedia is likely town at this point based on how Blade turned on her D5). In this scenario, if I don't shoot tonight, we lose, since wolves will have a three to two majority tomorrow with Persolus - but if I do shoot, it's a 2/5ths chance that it hits a wolf.

So that's where I'm sitting. Logic checks out? I am leaning towards "Lentrax is the last wolf", since I feel like 25% is roughly the ratio of wolf-aligned you want in a game. In which case we sit pretty. Even in the second scenario, the chances that I hit a wolf are low enough that it's not worth shooting anyhow.

Though if Persolus targets Lentrax... there's a chance they random the wolf-kill onto themselves (assuming I am reading this right, I will double-check), which is hilarious. 25% chance of winning the game outright for town.

So, Persolus... I guess the question is... are you feeling lucky?

[Batcathat]

Though if Persolus targets Lentrax... there's a chance they random the wolf-kill onto themselves (assuming I am reading this right, I will double-check), which is hilarious. 25% chance of winning the game outright for town.

If I understand it correctly (and Persolus was honest about his power, which is obviously a big if), targeting Lentrax would randomize Lentrax's target and anyone targeting Lentrax, so presumbly it wouldn't redirect Lentrax killing anyone.

And yeah, I feel like Lentrax being the last wolf is the most likely answer, I think yesterday would've been different if it had three wolves (and a wolf-friendly neutral). Of course, assuming the most likely answer is the truth hasn't always worked out great this game.

[Athedia]

Well here I am, covered in lint and thoroughly embarassed.

I owe Athedia yet another apology (same to Illven, really, though I think my logic was largely sound) and AV my eternal gratitude, assuming that it was her intervention.

So, assuming that the death flips are not randomized and meaningless (unlikely, since Lentrax is still alive and Blade claimed lovers), there are two scenarios here.

1) There is only one wolf left, Lentrax. With Persolus in the game, we cannot reliably block or shoot Lentrax, from my understanding - though Persolus could just be bluffing, who knows. Even so, Lentrax kills one of us, and town has a three to two majority tomorrow and whoever survives out of me, Illven, Athedia, and BCH votes Lentrax for the win. This bafflingly means that Bladescape either used a 1/game power to highjack a wagon from yeeting town to yeeting a fellow wolf, or else took credit for it without knowing why it happened. Gah. Though who knows, I think AV mentioned that she could hijack three times per game so maybe we've got this anyhow?

2) There are two wolves left, one of whom is Lentrax. This would mean that there were 6/18 wolf-aligned individuals at game start, which is possible but seems high. In this scenario, one of the wolves could be Athedia, which would explain why Bladescape did the highjack if it actually happened, because I am still absolutely shocked at how that turned out (even if I think Athedia is likely town at this point based on how Blade turned on her D5). In this scenario, if I don't shoot tonight, we lose, since wolves will have a three to two majority tomorrow with Persolus - but if I do shoot, it's a 2/5ths chance that it hits a wolf.

So that's where I'm sitting. Logic checks out? I am leaning towards "Lentrax is the last wolf", since I feel like 25% is roughly the ratio of wolf-aligned you want in a game. In which case we sit pretty. Even in the second scenario, the chances that I hit a wolf are low enough that it's not worth shooting anyhow.

Though if Persolus targets Lentrax... there's a chance they random the wolf-kill onto themselves (assuming I am reading this right, I will double-check), which is hilarious. 25% chance of winning the game outright for town.

So, Persolus... I guess the question is... are you feeling lucky?

"Persolus I assume can win with town alive, so he just has to survive. Also if there were three wolves, then yesterday's vote makes no sense. They could have forced a tie. Unless and I doubt this is the case, the two remaining wolves are lovers are Illven and Lentrax and Blade did have a vote hijack power but it would kill himself. Which doesn't match up. By the way Nero was another head of a casino who was aligning himself with Caeser's Legion. Head of Omertas. Benny was head of the Chairmen. Which means I suspect we might have Marjorie remaining, head of the White Glove Society found at the Ultra Luxe, a place Lentrax did mention. And it would make sense for House and the heads of the Three Families to be the wolves. Also for someone who wasn't expressing much information in the way of New Vegas to suddenly know about the very optional quests with Ted Gunderson."

[Lentrax]

I am actually as confused by this turn as anyone else. My power did, in fact, make me and blade lovers. So I am as confused about still being here as you all are.

[Athedia]

"Who was the first person to state that Bladescape was town cleared? It might be a long night and we should get all the details we can before the next day. Also Lentrax, going to need more than that."

[Lentrax]

Until I figure that out myself, that is all I have.

[Athedia]

"I mean you can share information from your chat. You can share more about your role. Right now it doesn't look good for you."

[Let'sGetKraken]

i think bladescape's posts aren't good and the vote movement around him is very dubious i think we should kill him eventually if we're able to figure out how lol

I mean, you were right! If only we had listened.

I'm gonna pull the "I should be clear" card here tbh.

CCW pretty heavily indicated vet claim and there's 0 chance I'd be risking a kill there at this stage. A true vet claim = a lost wolf.

Which just isn't worth it.

It appears I owe Athedia an apology after all. I don't love the speculation on names - that was something to keep tp yourself until after wolves have claimed, to catch them out - but I'm willing to shelve that suspicion for now, given Jeen's flip. Thanks for that blade.

Now, am I paranoid enough to think that Blade could be a very ruthless bussing wolf for towncred? Yes. But uh, good work so far.

Also like it does feel like you have been doing a lot less cryptic prodding compared to recent town games, so like.

But hey we're in a good enough position, I am okay dying if necessary.

Same issues, only getting on now.

But no, sorry, two possibilities:

1) Blade can't read my townplay, which is good if I am going to die;
2) I can read wolf!blade (this game at least)

Either way I am going to be insufferable.

No way I can persuade you to vote elsewhere? I can claim, it's just less useful if wolves know what I can do.

I mean, given how thoroughly the hijack pocketed me, I'm not going to be insufferable (well, no more than usual), but I do need to trust my instincts a little more. Regardless of how this ends, blade had me thoroughly fooled - I even thought "both the previous yeets were ones that blade pushed for" yesterday before going "no no, he yanked the yeet onto a wolf when a town would have otherwise died".