Stormcloaks Or Empire (One Of The Three Certainties Of Life)

[Cikomyr2]

Because Skyrim's writing is bad, and Mede is a dumbass. The Dark Brotherhood is in its current state largely because the Empire (among others) has been taking chunks out of them, they should know roughly how they're faring. The fact that somebody high up in the Senate has zero idea doesn't make any sense on the face, and the only reason his plan succeeds is because the Dragonborn is there to do all the heavy lifting for the 'Hood.

Hell, his contract never would have been picked up if the literal hero of prophecy with the strength of 100 men hadn't decided to join up, because Astrid's crew would never have heard about it.

So now you are deciding to invent things that aren't said and disregard things are said on the ground that "skyrim writing is bad" just so things make more sense in your personal interpretation of the game.

And "Medes is a dumbass" is literally one of the few things established as canonically false. Titus Medes II is, for all indication, a tactical and political leader above his peers.

Me criticizing him is due to the limitations his position force upon him, not a testament of his personal incompetence. I keep comparing his empire to the late Roman Empire or the Western Roman Empire, and even a genius emperor at these stages of existence couldnt have prevented the fall of the Empire. They'd just spend their time protecting their throne against usurper.

[Rynjin]

@Cikomyr2: If you're gonna accuse me of lying, try to back it up with specifics. As-is I don't really see any more need to humor you in particular in this conversation because "you're making things up" has been your only contribution for a while, even for things which you could easily look up to see are true.

As I recall, Cicero's journal says that it was the Great War that drove them out of Bravil and Cyrodiil, and the subsequent unrest, not the Empire specifically.

It was basically everybody. One of the final straws from Cicero's journals was that the Sanctuary in Bravil was destroyed by two rival gangs of bog standard drug dealers going at it.

27th of Hearthfire, 4E 188
The situation in Bravil grows more dire. The city has erupted in violence, due to a war of control being waged by Cyrodiil's two largest skooma traffickers. The Listener, Alisanne Dupre, has been forced to employ sellswords to protect her own residence.

Not long after, Alisanne is killed and the total numbers of Dark Brotherhood members in the entirety of Cyrodiil falls to...4. So including their Listener, they were only 5 people at that point.

Things get fuzzier from there because apparently the card game is soft-canon. This is where the events stay the same as Cicero's Journal (Alisanne Dupre is killed, the Wayrest sanctuary in High Rock is destroyed, etc.) but more context is added as to the WHY, which is essentially that it was a concerted plot by Dupre's father to bring what little remained of the Dark Brotherhood down from the inside.

It is heavily implied in any case that multiple regional governments put in concerted effort to wipe out the Brotherhood. Their presence has been COMPLETELY eliminated from Hammerfell, Black Marsh (to the point that the Shadowscale recruitment program, previously a significant part of Argonian culture, has been discontinued), and Summerset within a suspiciously short amount of time.

The destruction of the Wayrest sanctuary is a coincidence (destroyed after the city was sacked) but I have a hard time believing the others all falling within several months of each other is a coincidence. Corinthe (Elsweyr) was closed voluntarily for unknown reasons.

So that sets the stage for the modern day. Over a decade has passed since the Dark Brotherhood fulfilled ANY contracts, anywhere besides Skyrim. And we're supposed to believe that...nobody noticed?

[veti]

Because Skyrim's writing is bad,

Umm... no. If your argument requires assuming "the text is wrong", your argument is wrong. The text is the text, it literally can't be "wrong" no matter how nonsensical it gets. That's, like, rule zero of analysis.

and Mede is a dumbass.

But he's right.

The fact that somebody high up in the Senate has zero idea doesn't make any sense on the face, and the only reason his plan succeeds is because the Dragonborn is there to do all the heavy lifting for the 'Hood.

But - again - it worked. So who's the "dumbass" here exactly?

It was basically everybody. One of the final straws from Cicero's journals was that the Sanctuary in Bravil was destroyed by two rival gangs of bog standard drug dealers going at it.

OK, I just re-read Cicero's journal. There was no actual sanctuary in Bravil, only Alisane Dupre's "private residence". And all of this happened in the context of the whole of Cyrodiil falling into chaos. Later that year:

Cheydinhal has erupted into violence and chaos, like so many other cities before it.

And this, again, is another illustration of why the Empire is no longer a power worth respecting or fighting for - it can't even keep the peace in the cities of its own homeland. That's - pretty basic.

At this point, what useful function is the Empire fulfilling? What exactly are you fighting for, if you side with them?

It's not doing what Hadvar claims, "keeping the Thalmor out of Skyrim". On the contrary, it's given the Thalmor free rein in Skyrim and it's actively supporting their agents. It's not keeping people safe. It's not enforcing anything that you could dignify with the name of "laws", we see that in the very first scene where it tries to execute me, not only without a trial but without even a charge. It's certainly not "keeping the peace". It's not even, plausibly, rebuilding its strength and preparing for the next Great War. If it were, it would make a simple deal with Ulfric - independence for Skyrim in return for a military alliance.

No, all it's doing is propping up its own decayed and pointless husk, taking Skyrim's resources to keep Cyrodiil afloat for (it hopes) a few more years.

Ulfric is repulsive, yes. He's not particularly bright, or noble, or good, and the cult of personality that surrounds him makes it impossible for anyone to point out any of his failings, and therefore vanishingly unlikely that they'll ever be addressed. But one thing he is, unfortunately for everyone, is right.

[Rynjin]

Umm... no. If your argument requires assuming "the text is wrong", your argument is wrong. The text is the text, it literally can't be "wrong" no matter how nonsensical it gets. That's, like, rule zero of analysis.

I didn't say the text is wrong, I said the writing is bad.

But he's right.



But - again - it worked. So who's the "dumbass" here exactly?

Still him. I had thought everybody knew by now that results-based analysis is really silly. If you jump off a bridge and somehow miraculously don't die, that doesn't make jumping off said bridge a good idea retroactively. It just means you got lucky.

It is sheer coincidence that this plan succeeds, not good planning or any particular political savvy. If he had tried it a year, even a few DAYS before, it would have failed. The Dragonborn is the lynchpin holding this "plan" together, in both directions. We get a glimpse into the reality where the Dragonborn does not become a member of the Dark Brotherhood: the Brotherhood gets wiped out by the Penitus Oculatus. Y'know, the guys who, without the Dragonborn, would be there on the ship directly protecting Mede.

They would have been cut down like chaff, the same way they are in Destroy the Dark Brotherhood. Hell, for all we know, that's the canon end of the DB.

And even in the timeline where everything goes to plan without the Dragonborn (impossible, for multiple reasons)...they likely still get wiped. Maro pretty clearly has more steel in him than Motierre thought, and personally sees to it all but two members die, with Cicero's fate up in the air. You think Nazir and Babette are gonna be the deciding factor here? They pull off the assassination on their own? If they're even alive at all, but we'll get to that.

No. Motierre put together a shoddy plan that relies on the intervention of the most powerful being on the planet showing up and somehow deciding to side with him to succeed. It is clearly, evidently, not a good plan because we see every possible way it could go wrong without the intervention of the Dragonborn.

Like, let's lay out his plan from start to finish real quick:

Edit; I forgot the funniest one (step 0):

Step 0: Plan this coup without anyone finding out.
--Mede found out. Oops.

Step 1: Perform the Black Sacrament to contact the Brotherhood. Do it in absolute secrecy so nobody can trace you.
--This is point of failure 1. Without the Dragonborn specifically, the plan FAILS AT STEP ONE. Ther eis no Listener. They will never hear of the Black Sacrament being performed in some dingy Draugr-infested ruin. Amaund gives up and goes home. Or gets eaten by zombies, iunno.

Step 2: Assassinate Vittoria to get Mede to show up.
--The assasination would likely go off without a hitch. The logic for why it would force Mede to show up is shoddy ("Ah yes, one of my family members was recently assassinated near here, clearly I need to personally investigate instead of sending people to do it for me!"), but let's roll with it.

Step 3: Kill Gaius Maro, to throw Commander Maro off his game.
--An inherent point of failure. The assassination goes off without a hitch. Maro goes ape**** and kills everyone in the Brotherhood. This is the canon outcome. One could argue he would have no way of knowing how Maro would react. I would counter with why would he hinge his delicate assassination plot on the reaction of someone he doesn't know well enough to predict?

Step 4: Impersonate the Gourmet to try and assassinate the Emperor.
--Maybe succeeds...probably doesn't. None of the current crop of Brotherhood are shown to be particularly good infiltrators, save perhaps Veezara.

Step 4.5: Try to kill Cicero.
--This one's not on Amaund, this is all Astrid being a dumbass. Genuine strong chance Cicero straight up ****ing murders every last member of the Cheydinhal Brotherhood. He cuts down Arnbjorn without blinking, and he's easily the most dangerous in a straight up fight with the possible exception of Festus. The plan may end here with the Brotherhood's personnel decimated (or gone entirely) by Astrid sending them after Cicero.

Step 5: Perform the poisoning.
--A bit of a branching point for our logic here. By all rights there no way any of this sequence of events even gets to this point. The plan fails at step 1. Maro gets brought back into the game by Astrid's betrayal. She only betrays because there is a new Listener...but the contract is only taken because there is a new Listener. By her stated goal of "wanting things to go back to normal" she probably tries to bail out of the Emperor contract at this point, having cold feet as usual. Veezara(?) eats it in teh DB's place, and the rest of the Brotherhood follows.

Step 5: Sneak onto the ship and try to just shank the Emperor.
--The plan is ****ed. This was never part of the plan, and Nazir and Babette are not getting this done in any case. The goose is cooked.

The plan is dumb for multiple reasons. It fails at almost every step, from factors that Motierre could/should have planned for. Motierre is an idiot in way over his head who lucks out by having a demigod solve all his problems for him. Mede is a dumbass for even showing up, unless we learn this was actually some big brain Thanatos Gambit that will have saved the Empire by the time TES VI arrives, which TBF is a distinct possibility. Nobody here comes out looking competent, except Maro and maybe hypothetical 5D chess Mede.

At this point, what useful function is the Empire fulfilling? What exactly are you fighting for, if you side with them?

At the very least the concept of a rule by order instead of rule by might.

If I'm to choose between two dictators I'll choose the one who at least doesn't believe his personal skill at arms makes him a good administrator.

[veti]

I had thought everybody knew by now that results-based analysis is really silly. If you jump off a bridge and somehow miraculously don't die, that doesn't make jumping off said bridge a good idea retroactively. It just means you got lucky.

Not if you survive in precisely the way you, and only you, predicted you would, while everyone else was telling you it was a dumb idea that would never work. In that case, you look like someone who knew more than others.

It is sheer coincidence that this plan succeeds, not good planning or any particular political savvy. If he had tried it a year, even a few DAYS before, it would have failed.

Maybe, but he didn't try it then, did he?

So much has led to this day. So much planning, and maneuvering. It's as if the very stars have finally aligned.

It's almost as if he knew that the time was finally ripe for this plan to work. Almost as if some, possibly supernatural, agency was guiding him. Which would sound like a reach, admittedly, if things were being guided by sheer chance, but we know for a fact they're not. The Night Mother chose to speak now, after a generation of silence, and she chose whom to speak to.

They would have been cut down like chaff, the same way they are in Destroy the Dark Brotherhood. Hell, for all we know, that's the canon end of the DB.

Except it's not. The Destroy quest leaves out both Babette and Cicero. Babette by herself may not be of much consequence, but she is immortal, and Cicero is by far the deadliest member of the Brotherhood, as well as the most devoted to it. That's quite enough to form the kernel of a new Brotherhood by the time the next game rolls around.

Step 0: Plan this coup without anyone finding out.
--Mede found out. Oops.

Well... no. Mede professes to have no idea who's behind the contract. He knows the DB is after him, but who cares, because he has no choice but to come to Skyrim anyway.

Step 1: Perform the Black Sacrament to contact the Brotherhood. Do it in absolute secrecy so nobody can trace you.
--This is point of failure 1. Without the Dragonborn specifically, the plan FAILS AT STEP ONE. Ther eis no Listener. They will never hear of the Black Sacrament being performed in some dingy Draugr-infested ruin. Amaund gives up and goes home. Or gets eaten by zombies, iunno.

See above. The fact is, he doesn't perform it without a Listener there to hear. Maybe he's just astonishingly lucky, or maybe he has reasons for his timing.

Step 2: Assassinate Vittoria to get Mede to show up.
--The assasination would likely go off without a hitch. The logic for why it would force Mede to show up is shoddy ("Ah yes, one of my family members was recently assassinated near here, clearly I need to personally investigate instead of sending people to do it for me!"), but let's roll with it.

"My cousin was just murdered in broad daylight at her own wedding while speaking to her guests. If I don't do anything about that I look weak and ridiculous in the eyes of all Solitude, and if I don't turn up in person I look heartless and cowardly to boot. Considering Solitude is my precarious toehold on power in Skyrim, I can't afford not to go."

Step 3: Kill Gaius Maro, to throw Commander Maro off his game.
--An inherent point of failure. The assassination goes off without a hitch. Maro goes ape**** and kills everyone in the Brotherhood. This is the canon outcome. One could argue he would have no way of knowing how Maro would react. I would counter with why would he hinge his delicate assassination plot on the reaction of someone he doesn't know well enough to predict?

Maro does indeed... react strongly, but he's only able to do so because the Brotherhood has been betrayed by its own leader. And yet it's still not enough to throw the plan off track. It's almost as if powers beyond any human's control were shaping events by this point.

Step 4: Impersonate the Gourmet to try and assassinate the Emperor.

Works without a hitch, except for the part where it's an imposter.

Step 4.5: Try to kill Cicero.
--This one's not on Amaund, this is all Astrid being a dumbass.

Astrid does indeed show some bad judgment at this point, for reasons. None of which are remotely connected to Motierre, or foreseeable or even knowable by him, unless of course you assume he has supernatural advice of some sort.

Step 5: Sneak onto the ship and try to just shank the Emperor.
--The plan is ****ed. This was never part of the plan, and Nazir and Babette are not getting this done in any case. The goose is cooked.

No, this was never part of the plan, but you know what? - it doesn't matter. "No plan survives contact with the enemy." Nobody with a WIS stat above 7 expects a plan to work all the way through. What matters is that the people conducting it have enough resources and information to adapt and figure out a way to finish the job anyway. Which is precisely what happens.

At the very least the concept of a rule by order instead of rule by might.

Which is why the Empire is imposing its will by force of arms (i.e. might)? "Order"? Don't make me laugh. The Empire can't even order the execution of a rebel leader when he's wholly in their power, choosing instead to lug him across largely-hostile countryside for over a day before losing him because they spontaneously decided it was more urgent to kill some random passing foreigner before him.

No, from the very opening scene the Empire comes across as weak, indecisive and disordered. And nothing after that happens to correct that impression.

[Aragehaor]

Which is why the Empire is imposing its will by force of arms (i.e. might)? "Order"? Don't make me laugh. The Empire can't even order the execution of a rebel leader when he's wholly in their power, choosing instead to lug him across largely-hostile countryside for over a day before losing him because they spontaneously decided it was more urgent to kill some random passing foreigner before him.

No, from the very opening scene the Empire comes across as weak, indecisive and disordered. And nothing after that happens to correct that impression.

I don't have a stake in the dark brotherhood discourse, but... i'm just curious. How exactly is it the empires fault that Alduin interrupted the execution? Was the empire supposed to know and plan for sudden unprecedented dragon attack?

There are plenty of examples of imperial corruption and incompetence, Moving a prisoner (successfully) through hostile countryside and failing to execute him because an outside context problem (for the empire) suddenly decided to intervene is decidedly not one of them. (Executing a random person they had no evidence did anything worth execution is an example of tyrannical behavior, however. but they are an empire)


Morally speaking, supporting any of the three sides (Imperial, Thalmor, and Stormcloaks) is different shades of bad, with the Thalmor being indisputably the baddest, of course. so i don't personally find much value in engaging in that aspect of things and will refrain.

Strategically, however, I don't see how anyone can argue that Skyrim would be better off with the Stormcloaks, The best case scenario leaves them with no allies, and nations that may be willing to support their sovereignty against the Thalmor in the future are either busy (hammerfell) or recently made hostile by forcibly kicking them out (The Empire)

The Empire losing Skyrim makes both Skyrim and The Empires position weaker, Even if they manage to get past their recent hostilites in the face of the Thalmor, Stormcloak armies have a severe scarcity of magic users, meaning that unless the independent Stormcloaks tame dragons and or merge their troops in some form of coalition/allied command structure with the Imperials, Stormcloak armies will just straight up be weaker and more easily broken, allowing the Thalmor easier opportunities to defeat the empire and Skyrim in detail.


The only scenario in which Independent Skyrim truly has a shot to be a superior strategic choice is if the Dragonborn ended up ruling it, but as far as i know, that is not even implied as a possibility. Historically Dragonborn rulers tend to forge empires, and the Dragonborn of skyrim is certainly an incredible talent.

It is possible that Skyrim could sit in its mountains and try to fortify themselves to safety, but that doesn't seem to have a very good track record of working in Elder Scrolls history.


The rebellion happening at all has, in my opinion, most likely doomed both Skyrim and The Empire. as all it does purely benefit the Thalmor, they gain more time to prepare, their enemies grow weaker and more divided, and the possibility of their only true rival power - the empire - reestablishing itself is truly dead and gone.

There is an argument to be made that the empire itself could be better off without skyrim, Less territory to rule, less problems to reform. and there is the hope that the Thalmor will attempt to invade skyrim first, and the hope that skyrim's terrain will allow it to resist and bloody the Thalmor enough for the much reduced empire to re-enter the world stage. but if the Thalmor instead attack the empire they will probably just win instead.



That said, as for 'whats better for the dragonborn, personally?' - well, ruling over their own independent skyrim after challenging and casually defeating Ulfric post-civil war would be ideal, but the game doesn't allow that specific outcome, so working for the empire is debatably better, if only because of economic concerns, Nations do not typically become more prosperous with less market access, afterall. and presumably the dragonborn doesn't want his houses to depreciate in value.

[GloatingSwine]

I don't have a stake in the dark brotherhood discourse, but... i'm just curious. How exactly is it the empires fault that Alduin interrupted the execution? Was the empire supposed to know and plan for sudden unprecedented dragon attack?

It’s not the Empire’s fault that Alduin showed up, it is their fault that Ulric was taken to some random ass border fort to be executed.

If they’re going to execute him under law not just have him offed quietly it should be in public where it makes a statement.

But they take him to the ass end of Skyrim in a poxy border fort where it makes no political statement and put him at the back of the queue despite being the most important prisoner to execute

[Keltest]

It’s not the Empire’s fault that Alduin showed up, it is their fault that Ulric was taken to some random ass border fort to be executed.

If they’re going to execute him under law not just have him offed quietly it should be in public where it makes a statement.

But they take him to the ass end of Skyrim in a poxy border fort where it makes no political statement and put him at the back of the queue despite being the most important prisoner to execute

Helgen is about as close to public as they could get while still being Imperial territory without hauling him across half of skyrim, through territory the imperials don't control.

[Aragehaor]

It’s not the Empire’s fault that Alduin showed up, it is their fault that Ulric was taken to some random ass border fort to be executed.

If they’re going to execute him under law not just have him offed quietly it should be in public where it makes a statement.

But they take him to the ass end of Skyrim in a poxy border fort where it makes no political statement and put him at the back of the queue despite being the most important prisoner to execute

I'm not fully convinced that Alduin wouldn't of attacked precisely wherever the Imperials happened to begin executing Ulfric(Or more specifically, i suppose, the Dragonborn), even if that happened to be Solitude, but that isn't a certainty either, obviously.(Perhaps Alduin would of attacked the imperial convoy escorting the prisoners, sensing the dragonborn among them?) I do agree that they'd of been better served executing Ulfric the moment they captured him, but i don't think its an example of incompetence to attempt some manner of public execution.

That said, i have no real problem with criticizing the empire for choosing a public execution, as i don't believe the benefits of it outweighed the risks of Stormcloaks managing to attack and free Ulfric during the transit.(Though for whatever reason it didn't happen or failed) Perhaps the empire just shanking Ulfric when they captured him would of angered the Stormcloak Jarls, but without a candidate to unify around i doubt further rebellion and resistance would of been much to write home about.

[Keltest]

The main reason to execute Ulfric publicly, in a town, is so there are witnesses to his death and the Stormcloaks don't just assume he's in hiding or something. It wouldn't completely stop that, but it would help.

[Errorname]

It’s not the Empire’s fault that Alduin showed up, it is their fault that Ulric was taken to some random ass border fort to be executed.

There's a reasonable argument that Alduin arrived at Helgen looking for the Dragonborn, so it's possible that it was their fault, if unintentionally.

Helgen is about as close to public as they could get while still being Imperial territory without hauling him across half of skyrim, through territory the imperials don't control.

I would note that Falkreath, Markarth and Morthal are all Imperial aligned to start and Whiterun will side with them when push comes to shove, they're out of Stormcloak controlled territory once they enter Falkreath hold. They're also close enough to the border that taking him to stand trial in the Imperial City should be on the cards.

Now, given some of the dialogue it seems clear that the plan was taking him to Solitude or Cyrodil and the Imperials got spooked by something and having a quick execution at Helgen was a hasty effort to get it over with before things went wrong, but they were in nominally Imperial territory at this point.

[GloatingSwine]

) I do agree that they'd of been better served executing Ulfric the moment they captured him, but i don't think its an example of incompetence to attempt some manner of public execution.

That said, i have no real problem with criticizing the empire for choosing a public execution, as i don't believe the benefits of it outweighed the risks of Stormcloaks managing to attack and free Ulfric during the transit.(Though for whatever reason it didn't happen or failed) Perhaps the empire just shanking Ulfric when they captured him would of angered the Stormcloak Jarls, but without a candidate to unify around i doubt further rebellion and resistance would of been much to write home about.

The thing is though that it’s not a public execution, it’s in the grounds of a Legion fort with basically no non-Legion witnesses. The logic for a public execution is sound but that’s not what they’re actually doing.

Might as well just strangle him to death on the spot then ceremonially behead the corpse in Solitude.

Doesn’t matter if Alduin or the Dragonborn are there then.

[Keltest]

The thing is though that it’s not a public execution, it’s in the grounds of a Legion fort with basically no non-Legion witnesses. The logic for a public execution is sound but that’s not what they’re actually doing.

Might as well just strangle him to death on the spot then ceremonially behead the corpse in Solitude.

Doesn’t matter if Alduin or the Dragonborn are there then.

Short of conquering Riften or something before they cut his head off, thats always going to be the case though. Theyre hardly going to surround themselves with Stormcloaks before executing him. Helgen has a fort, but the citizenry is there too, it is a real town.

[Grim Portent]

They would probably have a hard time getting to Solitude to do a more 'proper' public execution anyway.

Tullius doesn't trust Balgruuf at this time because he hasn't declared for a side, so travelling through Whiterun is a bad idea, Falkreath Hold is riddled with bandits due to the Jarl's corruption, and the Reach is full of Forsworn. Bandits might hold off from attacking a legion caravan, but Forsworn and potentially Stormcloak aligned Whiterun forces would. Hjaalmarch and Hafingar are relatively safe for travel, but on the other side of potentially hostile territory.

Taking Ulfric South to Cyrodiil might be possible, but we don't know what the state of Cyrodiil and the roads to and from Skyrim even are at the moment, and such a trip involves going through a mountain pass. At the moment the Empire seems to favour travelling to Skyrim by ship, the emperor himself arrives and intends to depart by ship rather than taking a carriage up from Cyrodiil, so I'm going to hazard a guess that travelling conditions on the roads aren't great, or the distances involved are meant to be really inconvenient.

[Cikomyr2]

The Empire wouldn't have been able to execute Ulfric anyway. The Thalmor had a contingency in place to prevent this from happening at all, Alduin just made that contingency redundant.

Another indication that the Empire is powerless against the Thalmor machinations.

[Keltest]

The Empire wouldn't have been able to execute Ulfric anyway. The Thalmor had a contingency in place to prevent this from happening at all, Alduin just made that contingency redundant.

Another indication that the Empire is powerless against the Thalmor machinations.

Unless that contingency plan was "Elenwen murders Tullius and all of his men" I think you are overstating the degree to which that plan would have been successful. As far as I'm aware the contingency was to try and convince Tullius to move Ulfric to Solitude for the execution to give the Stormcloaks/Thalmor-dressed-as-Stormcloaks more time to rescue him.

[Errorname]

The Empire wouldn't have been able to execute Ulfric anyway. The Thalmor had a contingency in place to prevent this from happening at all, Alduin just made that contingency redundant.

The Thalmor are not gods and Ulfric is an entirely mortal man at the Empire's mercy. He was literally minutes from getting his head cut off, and there's really nothing Elenwen could have done to stop Tullius if he put his foot down, which is supported by cut dialogue where she tries and fails to get Ulfric surrendered into her custody.

[Rynjin]

Not if you survive in precisely the way you, and only you, predicted you would, while everyone else was telling you it was a dumb idea that would never work. In that case, you look like someone who knew more than others.

No, you don't, and I really never want to be involved in any zany scheme you try to plan lmao. Concocting a scheme that only functions due to literal divine intervention is not a good plan, no matter how you spin it. I will reiterate: results-based analysis is stupid.

[veti]

I don't have a stake in the dark brotherhood discourse, but... i'm just curious. How exactly is it the empires fault that Alduin interrupted the execution? Was the empire supposed to know and plan for sudden unprecedented dragon attack?

I will... put my hand up to getting a little carried away with my own rhetoric, here. However, I think the correct course of action for a competent Empire would have been to kill Ulfric instead of capturing him alive (unless they planned to give him a full, public trial, which clearly was never on the cards). Or, if he insisted on surrendering - quietly shank him and say he died in battle.

Would Stormcloaks not believe he was dead? - maybe for a few days, but when Ulfric continued not to show up, most of them would come to accept it. A hard core of conspiracists would probably imagine he's being held in some Imperial or Thalmor fort, and try to spy out his whereabouts, but even they would give up eventually when they failed to find any sign of him.

Instead they take him for a long trek (Ralof says the ambush was "two days ago now") across uncertain country to execute formally, though still without a trial (which would at least have dignified the proceedings with some semblance of legality) and with only a small number of civilian witnesses. I'm not sure what they were trying to accomplish with that.

Strategically, however, I don't see how anyone can argue that Skyrim would be better off with the Stormcloaks, The best case scenario leaves them with no allies, and nations that may be willing to support their sovereignty against the Thalmor in the future are either busy (hammerfell) or recently made hostile by forcibly kicking them out (The Empire)

I would say the best case scenario is considerably better than that. The best case involves the Empire dissolving, and the newly independent human lands (Skyrim, High Rock, Hammerfell, Cyrodiil) forming a defensive alliance to come to each others' aid in the event of attack from Dominion territories. Yes there's bad feeling between them, but they could bury that in the face of an external threat, if the freaking Empire weren't screwing everything up with its own historically toxic agenda. Maybe they could even negotiate with whatever-the-heck is going on in Black Marsh too. That would make a confederation to be reckoned with.

I doubt it would happen, but if we're talking "best-case scenarios", let's at least try to think positively.

[Keltest]

I will... put my hand up to getting a little carried away with my own rhetoric, here. However, I think the correct course of action for a competent Empire would have been to kill Ulfric instead of capturing him alive (unless they planned to give him a full, public trial, which clearly was never on the cards). Or, if he insisted on surrendering - quietly shank him and say he died in battle.

Would Stormcloaks not believe he was dead? - maybe for a few days, but when Ulfric continued not to show up, most of them would come to accept it. A hard core of conspiracists would probably imagine he's being held in some Imperial or Thalmor fort, and try to spy out his whereabouts, but even they would give up eventually when they failed to find any sign of him.

Instead they take him for a long trek (Ralof says the ambush was "two days ago now") across uncertain country to execute formally, though still without a trial (which would at least have dignified the proceedings with some semblance of legality) and with only a small number of civilian witnesses. I'm not sure what they were trying to accomplish with that.



I would say the best case scenario is considerably better than that. The best case involves the Empire dissolving, and the newly independent human lands (Skyrim, High Rock, Hammerfell, Cyrodiil) forming a defensive alliance to come to each others' aid in the event of attack from Dominion territories. Yes there's bad feeling between them, but they could bury that in the face of an external threat, if the freaking Empire weren't screwing everything up with its own historically toxic agenda. Maybe they could even negotiate with whatever-the-heck is going on in Black Marsh too. That would make a confederation to be reckoned with.

I doubt it would happen, but if we're talking "best-case scenarios", let's at least try to think positively.

You think that the best case scenario is that the existing military and political alliance breaks down, and somehow they magically form a completely new one on the spot?

[Cikomyr2]

Unless that contingency plan was "Elenwen murders Tullius and all of his men" I think you are overstating the degree to which that plan would have been successful. As far as I'm aware the contingency was to try and convince Tullius to move Ulfric to Solitude for the execution to give the Stormcloaks/Thalmor-dressed-as-Stormcloaks more time to rescue him.

The Thalmor are not gods and Ulfric is an entirely mortal man at the Empire's mercy. He was literally minutes from getting his head cut off, and there's really nothing Elenwen could have done to stop Tullius if he put his foot down, which is supported by cut dialogue where she tries and fails to get Ulfric surrendered into her custody.

Do you have a transcript of her "trying and failing"? or notes?

As far as I know, the fact that Ulfric wasn't the very first one to have their head chopped off is proof enough that the Thalmor did indeed managed to delay Ulfric's execution somehow. In fact, the note seems to refer to their intervention has having actually happened.

Operational Notes:
Direct contact remains a possibility (under extreme circumstances), but in general the asset should be considered dormant. As long as the civil war proceeds in its current indecisive fashion, we should remain hands-off. The incident at Helgen is an example where an exception had to be made - obviously Ulfric's death would have dramatically increased the chance of an Imperial victory and thus harmed our overall position in Skyrim. (NOTE: The coincidental intervention of the dragon at Helgen is still under scrutiny. The obvious conclusion is that whoever is behind the dragons also has an interest in the continuation of the war, but we should not assume therefore that their goals align with our own.) A Stormcloak victory is also to be avoided, however, so even indirect aid to the Stormcloaks must be carefully managed.

An exception HAD TO BE MADE. Not "would have been needed", but WAS MADE. Past tense. They intervened. Ulfric wasn't going to be killed.

You think that the best case scenario is that the existing military and political alliance breaks down, and somehow they magically form a completely new one on the spot?

They wouldn't "form a new one on the spot" but since the Stormcloaks is explicitly against the Thalmor more than they are against the Empire, I doubt they would just sit on the sideline and not get involved fighting the Aldemeri Dominion. I can see them doing it, off course. But I think it's more likely Ulfric and an independant Skyrim would try to give the Thalmor and the Elves a bloody nose as much as possible. They just wouldn't give up fighting for their province if it was directly under attack just to reinforce Cyrodill. Like some certain emperor did to Hammerfell.

[Keltest]

Do you have a transcript of her "trying and failing"? or notes?

As far as I know, the fact that Ulfric wasn't the very first one to have their head chopped off is proof enough that the Thalmor did indeed managed to delay Ulfric's execution somehow. In fact, the note seems to refer to their intervention has having actually happened.



An exception HAD TO BE MADE. Not "would have been needed", but WAS MADE. Past tense. They intervened. Ulfric wasn't going to be killed.

Ok. You clearly were not playing the same game as the rest of us then, because there was no Thalmor intervention at Ulfric's execution. He would have died if Alduin had not shown up.

"Ulfric would have lived because I ignored the actual events that I witnessed and went off a document written by somebody serving their own interests instead" is not a compelling argument. Heck, its entirely likely that the Thalmor are taking credit for Alduin's attack to make them look better to their superiors.

[Errorname]

Do you have a transcript of her "trying and failing"? or notes?

UESP has one.

As far as I know, the fact that Ulfric wasn't the very first one to have their head chopped off is proof enough that the Thalmor did indeed managed to delay Ulfric's execution somehow. In fact, the note seems to refer to their intervention has having actually happened.

That's not very much time, and if it wasn't for the utterly unpredictable intervention of a world eating dragon Ulfric would have been very dead.

[veti]

You think that the best case scenario is that the existing military and political alliance breaks down, and somehow they magically form a completely new one on the spot?

First off, there is no "existing alliance". It's an empire, controlled very much from the centre. That's a problem, because recent history shows that the Empire very much does not attach equal weight to all its provinces - it was ready to sell out Hammerfell to save Cyrodiil. According to at least one source (although for my money this looks like revisionist BS), it also abandoned Morrowind during the Oblivion Crisis.

That's the kind of thing that makes would-be soldiers from the other provinces come over a bit thoughtful, when asked to pledge allegiance to the Empire and Emperor.

What I'm suggesting is an association of peers, with no one giving "orders" to the others. No centralised army, each country maintaining its own forces according to its own customs. In Cyrodiil that means a centralised army, in Skyrim it looks more like a feudal model, don't know what happens in the other two provinces but I'm sure they can do their own thing when needed.

As for "magically form a completely new one on the spot" - you make it sound like a hard thing to do. It's not, really. Treaties and alliances are easy enough to form, they happen all the time. And the Dominion itself came pretty much out of nowhere in a very short time. Maintaining them gets harder, but as a starting position it would be stronger than the existing Empire because people wouldn't have so many reasons to mistrust/hate it. And it would shake off the toxic legacy of the White-Gold Concordat.

[Aragehaor]

The main reason to execute Ulfric publicly, in a town, is so there are witnesses to his death and the Stormcloaks don't just assume he's in hiding or something. It wouldn't completely stop that, but it would help.

There's only so long the Stormcloaks can fight on before its apparent that Ulfric is really dead or otherwise removed as a viable contender for the throne, though i don't begrudge the empire for hoping for a cleaner and faster ending.

I would say the best case scenario is considerably better than that. The best case involves the Empire dissolving, and the newly independent human lands (Skyrim, High Rock, Hammerfell, Cyrodiil) forming a defensive alliance to come to each others' aid in the event of attack from Dominion territories. Yes there's bad feeling between them, but they could bury that in the face of an external threat, if the freaking Empire weren't screwing everything up with its own historically toxic agenda. Maybe they could even negotiate with whatever-the-heck is going on in Black Marsh too. That would make a confederation to be reckoned with.

I doubt it would happen, but if we're talking "best-case scenarios", let's at least try to think positively.

Historically, medieval coalitions do not have an incredible track record, but given the threat the Thalmor pose i'm willing to agree that forming the coalition is at least a viable possibility should the empire dissolve, although unless the stormcloaks manage to invade Cyrodil itself and forcibly dismantle it, i am certain the current elites of the empire will do their utmost to stop any form of collapse, For their own interests, the Prestige of being the empire (Rome retained some prestige even when it barely was clinging to life), and a probably earnest belief that the empire remains the best countermeasure to the Thalmor (Even multiple major defeats can sometimes fail to humble ancient empires, and they aren't always wrong in those cases, either)

Additionally, the coordination between the coalition forces if the empire dissolved can only be speculated on, but i would presume it is inferior to the current imperial organization.

First off, there is no "existing alliance". It's an empire, controlled very much from the centre. That's a problem, because recent history shows that the Empire very much does not attach equal weight to all its provinces - it was ready to sell out Hammerfell to save Cyrodiil. According to at least one source (although for my money this looks like revisionist BS), it also abandoned Morrowind during the Oblivion Crisis.

That's the kind of thing that makes would-be soldiers from the other provinces come over a bit thoughtful, when asked to pledge allegiance to the Empire and Emperor.

What I'm suggesting is an association of peers, with no one giving "orders" to the others. No centralised army, each country maintaining its own forces according to its own customs. In Cyrodiil that means a centralised army, in Skyrim it looks more like a feudal model, don't know what happens in the other two provinces but I'm sure they can do their own thing when needed.

As for "magically form a completely new one on the spot" - you make it sound like a hard thing to do. It's not, really. Treaties and alliances are easy enough to form, they happen all the time. And the Dominion itself came pretty much out of nowhere in a very short time. Maintaining them gets harder, but as a starting position it would be stronger than the existing Empire because people wouldn't have so many reasons to mistrust/hate it. And it would shake off the toxic legacy of the White-Gold Concordat.

I am willing to concede that given time and minimal Thalmor interference, such a coalition would have a decent chance of eventually defeating the Thalmor, but ultimately whether or not the Coalition would survive the deluge of Thalmor agents and assets being activated throughout the newly independent territories(and indeed, the number and positions of those spies and assets) is a matter of too much speculation to really talk about.

I will say that the Stormcloak (non dragonborn ruler) best case scenario is fraught with challenges and dangers (such as diplomacy and counterspying) that i'm not convinced the Stormcloaks are up to handling, though.

[Errorname]

There's only so long the Stormcloaks can fight on before its apparent that Ulfric is really dead or otherwise removed as a viable contender for the throne, though i don't begrudge the empire for hoping for a cleaner and faster ending.

Then the question becomes "do the Stormcloaks have it in them to keep fighting" and I think at this point they probably do. I don't think they have a viable alternate candidate, Ulfric is childless and none of the other Stormcloak jarls are particularly impressive, but making a martyr of Ulfric while his key commanders are still in play and they control half-the-province isn't going to be a clean and fast ending. The Empire probably still has to do the same amount of fighting they do in the Imperial Civil War questline in order to actually end the war, except without the Dragonborn on their side.

[Aragehaor]

Then the question becomes "do the Stormcloaks have it in them to keep fighting" and I think at this point they probably do. I don't think they have a viable alternate candidate, Ulfric is childless and none of the other Stormcloak jarls are particularly impressive, but making a martyr of Ulfric while his key commanders are still in play and they control half-the-province isn't going to be a clean and fast ending. The Empire probably still has to do the same amount of fighting they do in the Imperial Civil War questline in order to actually end the war, except without the Dragonborn on their side.

Maybe, but the Stormcloak rebellion isn't purely a rebellion of ideals, it ultimately comes down to a succession war, without a viable candidate to put forward as the next High King with Ulfric's death or murder, support for the rebellion should fracture or dissolve, Stormcloak Jarls competing with on another with betrayals and ambushes is probably one of the better outcomes if the Stormcloaks continue to fight in this hypothetical.

Also, i'm not personally sold that "Ulfric was killed by the imperials after being captured" and "Ulfric was executed by the imperials after being captured" is realistically a different scenario, The Stormcloaks obviously no longer recognize Imperial authority, If the Stormcloaks would rally around the dead Ulfric as a martyr, fighting to the end, i would imagine they'd also be willing to rally around an executed but still dead Ulfric, no? (If that is your position, then fair enough, I don't think the stormcloak Jarls are that devoted to Ulfric, myself, but there isn't enough evidence of that one way or another for most of the Jarls that i'm aware of)

[Errorname]

Maybe, but the Stormcloak rebellion isn't purely a rebellion of ideals, it ultimately comes down to a succession war, without a viable candidate to put forward as the next High King with Ulfric's death or murder, support for the rebellion should fracture or dissolve, Stormcloak Jarls competing with on another with betrayals and ambushes is probably one of the better outcomes if the Stormcloaks continue to fight in this hypothetical.

The thing is it's not purely a succession war, it's a war of independence and most of the rank-and-file Stormcloak soldiers are true believers. Galmar and Ulfric's other key military commanders can probably keep the fighting going for quite a while even after Ulfric's death, although without a strong heir I suspect they'd have no viable endgame.

[Grim Portent]

(If that is your position, then fair enough, I don't think the stormcloak Jarls are that devoted to Ulfric, myself, but there isn't enough evidence of that one way or another for most of the Jarls that i'm aware of)

IIRC Laila Lawgiver of Riften and Jarl whathisface of Dawnstar are both full in on Ulfric, with the latter also holding the Empire in contempt while Laila is just hopelessly naive. The Jarl of Winterhold is more pragmatic about things, doesn't buy into Ulfric hero-worship, but thinks secession will be for the better.

So The Rift and The Pale might keep fighting, Winterhold would probably fold. Windhelm has no obvious heir apparent to take over for a dead Ulfric.

[Keltest]

IIRC Laila Lawgiver of Riften and Jarl whathisface of Dawnstar are both full in on Ulfric, with the latter also holding the Empire in contempt while Laila is just hopelessly naive. The Jarl of Winterhold is more pragmatic about things, doesn't buy into Ulfric hero-worship, but thinks secession will be for the better.

So The Rift and The Pale might keep fighting, Winterhold would probably fold. Windhelm has no obvious heir apparent to take over for a dead Ulfric.

Lalia might stand down at the advice of Maven her trusted advisor. A war of Imperial conquest with no hope of victory in the Rift would be bad for Riften and its criminals, especially if the Legion came in to stamp out the corruption.