Stormcloaks Or Empire (One Of The Three Certainties Of Life)

[Errorname]

Unless Skyrim has been independently degenerating for years anyway, I don't think that Civil War was remotely an inevitability.

I think with Thalmor pressure it absolutely was. Ulfric alone is not the source of anti-imperial sentiment, and while he was an ideal candidate to push into starting a war because of existing high status and buttons the Thalmor could easily push, if he'd died in the war the sentiments that started the Civil War wouldn't suddenly go away. It would most certainly take a different form, but it would still happen, especially with the Thalmor pouring gas on the fire.

[Keltest]

I think with Thalmor pressure it absolutely was. Ulfric alone is not the source of anti-imperial sentiment, and while he was an ideal candidate to push into starting a war because of existing high status and buttons the Thalmor could easily push, if he'd died in the war the sentiments that started the Civil War wouldn't suddenly go away. It would most certainly take a different form, but it would still happen, especially with the Thalmor pouring gas on the fire.

Who else would emerge as leader though? Laila Law-giver, who couldn't lead a herd of lost ducklings? Skald the crazy old man of Dawnstar? Korir the Ignored of Winterhold? The Stormcloak jarls besides Ulfric are laugably bad.

[Errorname]

Who else would emerge as leader though? Laila Law-giver, who couldn't lead a herd of lost ducklings? Skald the crazy old man of Dawnstar? Korir the Ignored of Winterhold? The Stormcloak jarls besides Ulfric are laugably bad.

Yeah, if you assume that the only people with political agency are landed nobles then there's no other way a civil conflict happens, but that's a bad assumption and you shouldn't make it.

[Keltest]

Yeah, if you assume that the only people with political agency are landed nobles then there's no other way a civil conflict happens, but that's a bad assumption and you shouldn't make it.

I can't help but notice you aren't actually volunteering any names though.

[druid91]

Galmar for one.

[Errorname]

I can't help but notice you aren't actually volunteering any names though.

I don't know who would have risen to be the figurehead without Ulfric, only that someone would have. You're right that it probably wouldn't be a noble, and without a noble patron the secessionists likely develop very differently, but there would still be that anti-imperial sentiment and it probably still turns into a violent civil conflict.

[Keltest]

I don't know who would have risen to be the figurehead without Ulfric, only that someone would have. You're right that it probably wouldn't be a noble, and without a noble patron the secessionists likely develop very differently, but there would still be that anti-imperial sentiment and it probably still turns into a violent civil conflict.

But why? Without a powerful and influential figure to lead them, how does the grumbling turn into civil war?

[druid91]

Because all it takes is for a charismatic figure to cleave a Thalmor justiciar in two and start gathering followers to set fire to the tinder.

[Keltest]

Because all it takes is for a charismatic figure to cleave a Thalmor justiciar in two and start gathering followers to set fire to the tinder.

There aren't actually enough Thalmor in Skyrim to make "get the elves out of Skyrim" a rallying call.

[Errorname]

But why? Without a powerful and influential figure to lead them, how does the grumbling turn into civil war?

See I think you've got it the wrong way around, Ulfric only has a shot at the throne because he tethered himself to widespread grumbling that was going to lead to Civil War, especially with the Thalmor actively putting their hand on the scale.

[Keltest]

See I think you've got it the wrong way around, Ulfric only has a shot at the throne because he tethered himself to widespread grumbling that was going to lead to Civil War, especially with the Thalmor actively putting their hand on the scale.

I disagree. Ulfric is a hero of the Great War and the Markarth Incident, and the Jarl of a very prominent and prestigious hold. He is basically an automatic contender on any platform he wants.

[Cikomyr2]

Also the absolutely massive Thalmor hit team that goes after you in Riften.

And I believe there is an agent that gets into Windhelm as well.

Ohhh that one always bothered me. Out of the blues an entire Thalmor squad shows up in the heart of thieves guild neighborhood.

100% headcanon is that Maiven is somehow a Thalmor asset/facilitator and just allowed them access without interference from the Guild.

[Keltest]

Ohhh that one always bothered me. Out of the blues an entire Thalmor squad shows up in the heart of thieves guild neighborhood.

100% headcanon is that Maiven is somehow a Thalmor asset/facilitator and just allowed them access without interference from the Guild.

I mean, fully if there is any city where somebody could just walk in with 30 bodyguards and nobody would even look twice, it would be Riften.

[Rynjin]

I disagree. Ulfric is a hero of the Great War and the Markarth Incident, and the Jarl of a very prominent and prestigious hold. He is basically an automatic contender on any platform he wants.

Not enough of a contender to take the vote at the Moot, apparently. That's kinda the crux of the whole Civil War. He wants to conquer the other Holds and install puppet Jarls on them who'll vote him in as High king.

[Divayth Fyr]

Galmar for one.

Not really convinced he'd be able to muster a force anywhere near as big as what we have in the canon scenario. Also, he'd probably wouldn't be able to get much support from the Jarls, making his whole rebellion much weaker and shorter.

I think with Thalmor pressure it absolutely was. Ulfric alone is not the source of anti-imperial sentiment, and while he was an ideal candidate to push into starting a war because of existing high status and buttons the Thalmor could easily push, if he'd died in the war the sentiments that started the Civil War wouldn't suddenly go away. It would most certainly take a different form, but it would still happen, especially with the Thalmor pouring gas on the fire.

I mean, if he died in the war the Markarth Incident could go a very different way, and we do hear the open proclamation of Talos worship after that one was the point the Thalmor started cracking down on Skyrim (since they got an excuse handed to them on a fine silver platter).

[Errorname]

Not really convinced he'd be able to muster a force anywhere near as big as what we have in the canon scenario. Also, he'd probably wouldn't be able to get much support from the Jarls, making his whole rebellion much weaker and shorter.

I don't think the Support of the Stormcloak-aligned Jarls is all that important, none of them are particularly impressive. This is a rebellion that lives and dies on popular support, not the nobility.

I mean, if he died in the war the Markarth Incident could go a very different way, and we do hear the open proclamation of Talos worship after that one was the point the Thalmor started cracking down on Skyrim (since they got an excuse handed to them on a fine silver platter).

The thing is that the Thalmor were looking for that excuse, and if they didn't get it from Markarth they'd have tried to find it somewhere else, and I fully believe they would have. The Thalmor weren't passively hoping a bad treaty alone would cause things to turn hostile in Skyrim, they were actively stoking the flames.

[Keltest]

I don't think the Support of the Stormcloak-aligned Jarls is all that important, none of them are particularly impressive. This is a rebellion that lives and dies on popular support, not the nobility.



The thing is that the Thalmor were looking for that excuse, and if they didn't get it from Markarth they'd have tried to find it somewhere else, and I fully believe they would have. The Thalmor weren't passively hoping a bad treaty alone would cause things to turn hostile in Skyrim, they were actively stoking the flames.

Sorry, but "The Thalmor would magically be able to achieve the same result under all circumstances" isnt that compelling an argument to me. Ulfric already had a personal militia for like 20 years before he killed the king. The logistics for a civil war don't just happen over night.

Beyond that, even if another populist leader does emerge, theres nothing that says that he's as politically unsavvy as Ulfric. Surely "the elves want us to fight" would be a very strong idea if it were actually able to penetrate the Stormcloak psyche.

[Cikomyr2]

Sorry, but "The Thalmor would magically be able to achieve the same result under all circumstances" isnt that compelling an argument to me. Ulfric already had a personal militia for like 20 years before he killed the king. The logistics for a civil war don't just happen over night.

Beyond that, even if another populist leader does emerge, theres nothing that says that he's as politically unsavvy as Ulfric. Surely "the elves want us to fight" would be a very strong idea if it were actually able to penetrate the Stormcloak psyche.

He had "a militia" that allowed him to retake Markath from the Bretons for the Nord before the Empire legitimized them. But the Stormcloak as a full blown military organisation only been around since after Ulfric was released a 2nd time and became Jarl of Windhelm. I don't think we have a date how long before the Duel and Civil war that was.

So there was a time between Ulfric and his militia being arrested by the Thalmor and his liberation where there werent any Ulfric to tend the flames or gather strenght.

[Keltest]

He had "a militia" that allowed him to retake Markath from the Bretons for the Nord before the Empire legitimized them. But the Stormcloak as a full blown military organisation only been around since after Ulfric was released a 2nd time and became Jarl of Windhelm. I don't think we have a date how long before the Duel and Civil war that was.

So there was a time between Ulfric and his militia being arrested by the Thalmor and his liberation where there werent any Ulfric to tend the flames or gather strenght.

Do you mean imprisoned by the Empire? Because the Thalmor only captured him once that I'm aware of, during the Great War.

[Errorname]

Sorry, but "The Thalmor would magically be able to achieve the same result under all circumstances" isnt that compelling an argument to me.

It's not magic, it's covert ops. The Thalmor's spies can use proxies to back promising anti-imperial voices and use those anti-imperial activities to justify further crackdowns which increase support for the anti-imperial movement, and repeat until it gets to a point where the rebellion is self-sustaining, and from the Thalmor dossiers we know that this is literally what they did.

And I don't think it'd be the same outcome. Notably without a noble to stick on the throne there's way less of a path to victory for the rebels. But the thing the Thalmor need to create is conflict that wastes the strength of the Empire during the interregnum, and I absolutely believe they could do that. Scattered peasant uprisings aren't as good as an organized rebellion, but they'll do in a pinch.

Beyond that, even if another populist leader does emerge, theres nothing that says that he's as politically unsavvy as Ulfric. Surely "the elves want us to fight" would be a very strong idea if it were actually able to penetrate the Stormcloak psyche.

Given that in this scenario the most likely leaders are not educated nobles but rather veteran soldiers and well connected commoners I find it easy to believe, especially when the Elves are very prominently backing the other side in the war. The Empire allowing the Thalmor to operate within their borders alongside the Legions works against them. While the Imperial leaders know they're working against the elves, that's not how it looks to an outsider.

[Keltest]

It's not magic, it's covert ops. The Thalmor's spies can use proxies to back promising anti-imperial voices and use those anti-imperial activities to justify further crackdowns which increase support for the anti-imperial movement, and repeat until it gets to a point where the rebellion is self-sustaining, and from the Thalmor dossiers we know that this is literally what they did.

And I don't think it'd be the same outcome. Notably without a noble to stick on the throne there's way less of a path to victory for the rebels. But the thing the Thalmor need to create is conflict that wastes the strength of the Empire during the interregnum, and I absolutely believe they could do that. Scattered peasant uprisings aren't as good as an organized rebellion, but they'll do in a pinch.



Given that in this scenario the most likely leaders are not educated nobles but rather veteran soldiers and well connected commoners I find it easy to believe, especially when the Elves are very prominently backing the other side in the war. The Empire allowing the Thalmor to operate within their borders alongside the Legions works against them. While the Imperial leaders know they're working against the elves, that's not how it looks to an outsider.

The traditions and psyche of the disaffected demographic make peasant rebellion an unlikely outcome of social unrest in Skyrim. If someone thinks they can do a better job, they just walk up to the Jarl and say to their face "fite me, I can do better jerb." and then, most likely, they get handed a sword and the Jarl disembowles them, because being a Jarl lets you have access to a lot of martial training and good equipment, and being a peasant does not.

Changing the script a little bit so that you have someone like Galmar, a veteran soldier who is tactically wise but strategically kind of useless, he does the same thing to start his message, but then he gets stuck a little bit, because if he wins, now he has to actually do a better job than the other Jarl, which isn't something he's all that well equipped for, and the elves kind of lost the ability to overtly manipulate him at this point due to having enough power that he can just tell all their overt agents to pick out their own coffins, and they have to be careful not to taunt and antagonize him so hard that the Empire itself starts taking offense and tells them to hit the road. A slower burn than Ulfric's sudden murder of the king and power grab also gives the Imperials more ability to wield their own power, propaganda and just generally negotiate with the guy. A hypothetical Jarl Galmar is a problem, but not one that can only be solved with violence the way Ulfric murdering the High King was. Heck, you put Jarl Galmar in Ulfric's position where he challenged the king, and its STILL less likely to lead to civil war because Galmar can't use the Voice in the duel so he just fights Torygg conventionally, which makes the duel feel more legitimate to the Jarls and gives Torygg opportunity to surrender and yield to a superior combatant instead of getting murdered.

This is why I keep saying that Ulfric is one of the only ones to take advantage of the situation to actually escalate it to actual war and violence.

[Errorname]

The traditions and psyche of the disaffected demographic make peasant rebellion an unlikely outcome of social unrest in Skyrim. If someone thinks they can do a better job, they just walk up to the Jarl and say to their face "fite me, I can do better jerb." and then, most likely, they get handed a sword and the Jarl disembowles them, because being a Jarl lets you have access to a lot of martial training and good equipment, and being a peasant does not.

Skyrim has no shortage of skilled fighters and frankly most of the Jarls are not particularly impressive, but that doesn't matter because Nords are not Klingons and their nobility clearly does not actually work like this.

This is why I keep saying that Ulfric is one of the only ones to take advantage of the situation to actually escalate it to actual war and violence.

Ulfric is an optimal candidate for the Thalmor for a lot of reasons, but just because he kicked off the war by challenging Torygg to a duel doesn't mean that's the only way to kick the war off. If a bunch of rebels raid an imperial manned fort, that's kicking off a war. Or if a bunch of imperials crack down brutally on suspected rebels.

[Keltest]

Skyrim has no shortage of skilled fighters and frankly most of the Jarls are not particularly impressive, but that doesn't matter because Nords are not Klingons and their nobility clearly does not actually work like this.



Ulfric is an optimal candidate for the Thalmor for a lot of reasons, but just because he kicked off the war by challenging Torygg to a duel doesn't mean that's the only way to kick the war off. If a bunch of rebels raid an imperial manned fort, that's kicking off a war. Or if a bunch of imperials crack down brutally on suspected rebels.

Skyrim has no shortage of bandits. two dozen angry nords picking a fight with Imperial forces does not a war make.

[Errorname]

Skyrim has no shortage of bandits. two dozen angry nords picking a fight with Imperial forces does not a war make.

See, I always understood the massive Bandit problem in Skyrim as a pretty direct consequence of the Civil War.

[Keltest]

See, I always understood the massive Bandit problem in Skyrim as a pretty direct consequence of the Civil War.

Its really hard to say whether Skyrim even actually has a bandit problem. The Reach certainly, but the rest of Skyrim it doesnt really come up much, outside of radiant quests. Its a meme, but the prevalence of bandits relative to civilians and soldiers is obviously a gameplay effect.

[Cikomyr2]

Do you mean imprisoned by the Empire? Because the Thalmor only captured him once that I'm aware of, during the Great War.

Someone is arguing without actually bothering to learn the details of what he's arguing about.

The Thalmor detained Ulfric after the Markath incident, and was only released after his father died and he was the sole heir. For all we know, all of Ulfric's followers in Markath were killed in a Thalmor prison.

[Keltest]

Someone is arguing without actually bothering to learn the details of what he's arguing about.

The Thalmor detained Ulfric after the Markath incident, and was only released after his father died and he was the sole heir. For all we know, all of Ulfric's followers in Markath were killed in a Thalmor prison.

That someone being you, apparently, because Ulfric was detained by the Jarl of Markath and the Empire after the Incident, not the Thalmor.

[Cikomyr2]

That someone being you, apparently, because Ulfric was detained by the Jarl of Markath and the Empire after the Incident, not the Thalmor.

Goddamnit i apparently misread that paragraphs five times in the past month. Apologies for misremembering and putting that on you in a much uncouth, snarky way.

[Keltest]

Goddamnit i apparently misread that paragraphs five times in the past month. Apologies for misremembering and putting that on you in a much uncouth, snarky way.

Well. Apology accepted. At least we managed to get on the same page about something.

[veti]

And I believe there is an agent that gets into Windhelm as well.

Not - per canon, there isn't, but I'm pretty sure Niranye would spy for anyone who asked, and probably is.

I mean, fully if there is any city where somebody could just walk in with 30 bodyguards and nobody would even look twice, it would be Riften.

Oh, they'd look twice all right. Three or four times, even. Got to make sure they apply the correct gate tax. But sure, if the entrants are willing to pay the appropriate tax, possibly with a discretionary surcharge, the guard captain wouldn't bother to mention the presence of such (clearly) exemplary public citizens to anyone else.

Beyond that, even if another populist leader does emerge, theres nothing that says that he's as politically unsavvy as Ulfric. Surely "the elves want us to fight" would be a very strong idea if it were actually able to penetrate the Stormcloak psyche.

Like I said before, I'm pretty sure Ulfric already knows that. It's just that it makes no difference. He's still right. What's he going to do, give up and accept the destruction of everything he values just because the Thalmor don't want him to?

It's not magic, it's covert ops. The Thalmor's spies can use proxies to back promising anti-imperial voices and use those anti-imperial activities to justify further crackdowns which increase support for the anti-imperial movement, and repeat until it gets to a point where the rebellion is self-sustaining, and from the Thalmor dossiers we know that this is literally what they did.

And I don't think it'd be the same outcome. Notably without a noble to stick on the throne there's way less of a path to victory for the rebels. But the thing the Thalmor need to create is conflict that wastes the strength of the Empire during the interregnum, and I absolutely believe they could do that. Scattered peasant uprisings aren't as good as an organized rebellion, but they'll do in a pinch.

The Forsworn are an alternative model. They still have a figurehead, a "king", but he's been pretty much invisible for the last 20+ years without, seemingly, losing the enthusiasm of his fighters. Imagine a version of the Forsworn that operates in every hold (except, probably, the Reach, because the real Forsworn would keep them out of there).

There's a question I mentioned way earlier in this thread, that nobody's considered as far as I've noticed. The question is: where, exactly, did the original Stormcloaks come from?

I mean, at the end of a war that has supposedly sapped the military strength of everyone concerned, how come Ulfric, newly emerged from a Thalmor prison, suddenly has a fit and trained militia at his disposal? Why weren't they as drained by the war as everyone else?

And now I've got a new theory. Of course, they must have been other POWs. The Thalmor released them with Ulfric, as a show of generosity and good faith.