A Small Wager – A Practical Guide to Evil

[Snowblaze]

...great I kind of townread that last Kraken post. All I need.

I will say the cliff thing 3SC did is making me paranoid considering there is a not insignificant chance stuff like that could in fact have an influence on the story of this game. It's a lot harder to come up with narrative reasons to make someone stay dead though.

...I now have a theory about 3SC which I don't want to state out loud rn. Actually wait no that's a lie I have two theories about 3SC, neither of which I want to state out loud.

And yeah, agreed no resistance to Merel is not exactly ideal but.

I just don't think anything we have so far is actually a strong argument against anyone.

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Also: I trust Xihirli's ability to read AV and am hence not interested in killing the latter today.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

1. Cao, was your initial vote on me random?

Yeah, in general page 1 votes are random unless otherwise stated. I didn't consider anyone I was less familiar with and probably new, but other than that I was just putting down a vote.



I will say I disagree with giving flat enough credit for a Town lean based on the first vote. Wolf!Flat could have planned to move the vote later and just got busy and wasn't able to. There's nothing else particularly townish from Flat so I'd put Flat as neutral/not sure.

Athedia is a bit in the same boat as flat? Being the second vote on Persolus is better, but bussing with a second vote on a buddy isn't unheard of. Like flat, she didn't post after the vote and possibly wasn't around to remove it. Better than flat and maybe I'm nitpicking but I wouldn't give them as much of a town read as Kraken did.

AV is in my unsure/neutral bucket as well. Seems very in character for AV, though I don't know if that means Town or Wolf.

Caedorus/Merel are ones I'd want more info from, hence my vote there.

Xi is Town for me due to being the other option vs a wolf. Snow and Kraken are town for how their posts sound. Cazero as well, for being the fourth vote on the wagon when no one else was close.

Dakrsidder I think is new? Waiting to see more, not interested in voting atm.

3Sec. Am watching. Not sure I get a Wolf vibe from them. But has a lot to say and seems invested.

[Persolus]

"Didn't you see Persolus fall off that cliff? There's no way he could have survived that."

Ah, yes, how does the saying go... "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

[Book Wombat]

The apparently-not-so corpse of the Apprentice mutters, suddenly showing up over the cliff's edge before dropping back into the void.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Ah, yes, how does the saying go... "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

See? See?

It's possibly unrelated but let's avoid leaning into wolf-favouring tropes in the thread until we're sure.

[3SecondCultist]

See? See?

It's possibly unrelated but let's avoid leaning into wolf-favouring tropes in the thread until we're sure.

That's really funny. If it's true, that means that we can steer Providence as the Narrator as Above even harder.

After all, Good Always Wins.

[Let'sGetKraken]

That's really funny. If it's true, that means that we can steer Providence as the Narrator as Above even harder.

After all, Good Always Wins.

That's what I was hoping for with my declaration, but apparently it wasn't enough (or is just a flavour thing).

It would be funny to vote Persolus again just to be sure, but... eh.

[Xihirli]

Always double-tap.
That’s a zombie trope, right?

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I want to say that I don't love that there's no resistance to Merel here, tbh, but if Merel flips wolf I will eat **** for it and rightfully so.

No, this is a good point. The wolves are, at the least, playing a very dangerous game waiting for town to get off its ass and change on their own.

I don’t want to kill Snowblaze because town or not she’s chatty.
I don’t have a strong suspicion for anyone. We could Murder the quiet, that sometimes turns up wolves when we have little else to go on.

[Dakrsidder]

Haven't said anything this round up until now, as I didn't really have anything to say or add that hadn't already been said, and I still don't, but might as well just poke my head out. Much like has already been discussed, no strong leans, but while there's been just as odd behavior from another, unless they speak up or there's a new development, I'm thinking Merel simply due to the lack of justification, at least from my perspective in breaking the 3-way last minute in favor of a wolf.

I want to say that I don't love that there's no resistance to Merel here, tbh

When there’s a lack of data to draw conclusions from you have to grasp at straws, so that’s a given. If Merel were to find time to clear up the air, things might be different, but there isn’t much to go on to begin with.

[flat_footed]

Okay so, the storyteller cleared some stuff up for me RE the wounds. Also I think I may have been attacked last night.

Also this is making me want to read the story now (aka move it up the to do list). Is there a more convenient method than the blog (like did they make a pdf or put it on AO3 or something?)

This stands out to me

Why do you think you were hurt

Minor or major?

[Athedia]

This stands out to me

Why do you think you were hurt

Minor or major?

Received a Fate, and I don't know if I should disclose at this time. I thought it was related to an aspect but the Storyteller says it isn't necessarily.

Did anyone else have effects during the night?

[MerelBlackbird]

Hello. With the mechanics in this game, I would actually like to be lynched to prove my innocence. Unless I just die. Eeek! Also, I'm starting ceramics again tomorrow! Yay!!

I... don't have much to say. Kind of a new experience for me, as far as Mafia goes. I'm not even keeping much of a diary.

I haven't met Dakrsidder. Would like to know better - unfamiliar people will always be my weakness in Mafia.

I don't see how Persolus has survived all the stuff we've thrown at him. I used my only harmful power use on him! I might need that later! (If he has survived. I am not quite sure. But there has been no message saying he was removed from the game).

Okay but what if I REALLY want to?

I’m going to poke Merel; who do you suspect, person?

Uh - Persolus? I honestly have nothing else right now, but I will do my homework and try to get my thoughts in order.

Town read right now are AV and Snow though. Serious trouble reading flat, so I hope I do not get stuck in the final day with him.

Ah, yes, how does the saying go... "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

ARGH STOP DOING THAT PERSOLUS!!!!

(if he really isn't dead. I just cannot tell this game).

[Snowblaze]

...and, you guessed it, I now townread that Merel post.

Which leaves me with no wolfreads.

People I have some reason to townread: 3SecondCultist, Athedia, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Cazero, Let'sGetKraken, MerelBlackbird, Xihirli

May he never return and may he appreciate the reference: Persolus

Other people: Caedorus, flat_footed, Dakrsidder

...that's it? Okay I am definitely setting my bar for town points too low. This is very much not a final reads list.

Can I get the bottom three's thoughts on each other, Merel, and anyone else they have thoughts on please?

[Xihirli]

Yeah I as well.
Maybe we’re all town.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Yeah I as well.
Maybe we’re all town.

Maybe the real town was the friends we made along the way.

I'm also townreading Merel and am.increasingly convinced she's a scapegoat here. But at the same time, the "I'm okay with dying!" thing seems like a good wolf bluff too.

Do we think there's any correlation between number of votes and injuries suffered? If so, is there a way to yeet Merel with only a couple of votes?

[Caedorus]

...and, you guessed it, I now townread that Merel post.

Which leaves me with no wolfreads.

People I have some reason to townread: 3SecondCultist, Athedia, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Cazero, Let'sGetKraken, MerelBlackbird, Xihirli

May he never return and may he appreciate the reference: Persolus

Other people: Caedorus, flat_footed, Dakrsidder

...that's it? Okay I am definitely setting my bar for town points too low. This is very much not a final reads list.

Can I get the bottom three's thoughts on each other, Merel, and anyone else they have thoughts on please?

If I mention that I have good reason to think you're town will you not kill me if I claim neutral?
Purely hypothetically, of course.

[Let'sGetKraken]

If I mention that I have good reason to think you're town will you not kill me if I claim neutral?
Purely hypothetically, of course.

I'm provisionally okay with sparing you for now, so long as you give us your Role and any other relevant information. Otherwise, in the absence of a good yeet, I think you're the best pick.

[Caedorus]

I'm provisionally okay with sparing you for now, so long as you give us your Role and any other relevant information. Otherwise, in the absence of a good yeet, I think you're the best pick.

I'm the Thief. I'd rather not give my aspects just yet but it's with one of those that I have gained information about Snow that makes me think she's town.

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Theoretically, I can win at the end of next day (so, three more phases from now including this one). However that's unlikely because it would require me to have incredible luck.

[Dakrsidder]

Hello. With the mechanics in this game, I would actually like to be lynched to prove my innocence. Unless I just die. Eeek!

Would it not be better to try to avoid being lynched? If you really are town, then the lynch could be used to reveal someone else's role, shortening the list of potential wolves. While it could prove one innocent and potentially doesn't auto-kill, it seems like a waste of a lynch to not utilize it to find more wolves. That said, I can't in good conscious swap to another without some nugget of an explanation.

I haven't met Dakrsidder. Would like to know better - unfamiliar people will always be my weakness in Mafia.

But that’s the best

...and, you guessed it, I now townread that Merel post.

Which leaves me with no wolfreads.

People I have some reason to townread: 3SecondCultist, Athedia, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Cazero, Let'sGetKraken, MerelBlackbird, Xihirli

May he never return and may he appreciate the reference: Persolus

Other people: Caedorus, flat_footed, Dakrsidder

...that's it? Okay I am definitely setting my bar for town points too low. This is very much not a final reads list.

Can I get the bottom three's thoughts on each other, Merel, and anyone else they have thoughts on please?

I don’t really have much of anything to say tbh. Both haven’t said much this round with flat_footed fixating on the potential attack, which might be an important detail or something, but I can’t tell. Caedorus mentioning they’re neutral is risky, would seem especially bold for a wolf who lost one of their own so soon to essentially guarantee not being town, but it does happen I suppose.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'm the Thief. I'd rather not give my aspects just yet but it's with one of those that I have gained information about Snow that makes me think she's town.

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Theoretically, I can win at the end of next day (so, three more phases from now including this one). However that's unlikely because it would require me to have incredible luck.

I'm satisfied with this for now. The Thief is a role that could very plausibly be neutral, for story* reasons that I won't discuss. There's an argument to be made that testing you gives us more information on Snow, but so long as you're not acting in a way that explicitly harms town I think your information-gathering is useful.

Dakrsidder, do you have reads on other people? I personally think you're not a wolf but more reads from you would be helpful while you're around, if you have them. Just people that are pinging you on either direction.

[Dakrsidder]

Dakrsidder, do you have reads on other people? I personally think you're not a wolf but more reads from you would be helpful while you're around, if you have them. Just people that are pinging you on either direction.

I don't have actual reads, but I suppose I have scattered thoughts; most aren't anything new.

Athedia, as mentioned, voted second on a wolf and stook with it, and additionally might've suffered some kind of attack. Seems most likely to be town from my perspective.

Both Snow and AV have had someone vouch for them; one was likely an aspect-related vouch while the other appeared intuition-based. I'm more keen to give points for the former, but a vouch is a vouch.

Xihirli got voted against a wolf and was pulled over by 1 point last second, so I find it relatively hard to suspect they're a wolf.

As far as I'm concerned, no one else has any real leg to stand on for being town, with two having made a bad play for town last round and another claiming neutral. Making a bad play doesn't necessarily make one guilty, but I would say they're on thinner ice as far as evidence goes.

Edit: oh, and Cazero also voted 4th on a wolf, which counts for something; I suppose it’s a leg up

[Let'sGetKraken]

But then the question becomes... where do we think the wolves are hiding?

In consulting Cultist's list, Caedorus and Merel have both (partially) claimed. Snow, AV, and I are the other three. People are vouching for AV and Snow, and I will claim if necessary (though would prefer not to for several very valid reasons). I'd prefer we get a bit more information as to how the narrative of our posts can impact actual mechanics before I do so. I have non-mechanical reasons for reading Cultist as town at this point, but they're not definitive. Everyone else I have some reasons to townlean.

Speaking of which, Cultist, are you willing to comment on whether your source was Caedorus? No is a perfectly valid answer.

I want flat to comment. Athedia potentially getting attacked feels a little too wishy-washy to put her as definitively town, but in concert with the second vote I think she gets solid townpoints. Flat is absolutely the calibre of player that could bus like that, though, and he's next up on my list, so while I wouldn't want to yeet him over Merel, I do want more from him in terms of gamestate.

[Snowblaze]

If I mention that I have good reason to think you're town will you not kill me if I claim neutral?
Purely hypothetically, of course.

That would, purely hypothetically, depend on what neutral role you claimed.

I'm the Thief. I'd rather not give my aspects just yet but it's with one of those that I have gained information about Snow that makes me think she's town.

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Theoretically, I can win at the end of next day (so, three more phases from now including this one). However that's unlikely because it would require me to have incredible luck.

This one? Yes, that's good enough to not kill you for today.

Dakrsidder passes the "has mostly coherent thoughts about the game" test, which I guess by POE leads me to flat_footed. I am not remotely convinced that he's a good kill or particularly likely to flip wolf but I don't have a decent argument to suggest he isn't and I need to vote for someone, so...

(Distracted by RL stuff, will check in intermittently between now and EOD.)

[Cazero]

Something comes to mind. Voting off people apparently doesn't kill them immediately, which mean we rely on some kind of vig to finish off the wolves. And with the number of hits on Persolus, it seems to be vigs, plural.
Not going to try for them to claim, but it does indicate that a wolf could make a fuss about taking a wound without lying.

[Caedorus]

In consulting Cultist's list, Caedorus and Merel have both (partially) claimed.

I can't find this merel claim you speak of?

Snow, AV, and I are the other three. People are vouching for AV and Snow, and I will claim if necessary (though would prefer not to for several very valid reasons). I'd prefer we get a bit more information as to how the narrative of our posts can impact actual mechanics before I do so. I have non-mechanical reasons for reading Cultist as town at this point, but they're not definitive. Everyone else I have some reasons to townlean.

Speaking of which, Cultist, are you willing to comment on whether your source was Caedorus? No is a perfectly valid answer.

If the answer is yes I have no knowlege of it. I have no ties to either a cultist or Cultist.

I want flat to comment. Athedia potentially getting attacked feels a little too wishy-washy to put her as definitively town, but in concert with the second vote I think she gets solid townpoints. Flat is absolutely the calibre of player that could bus like that, though, and he's next up on my list, so while I wouldn't want to yeet him over Merel, I do want more from him in terms of gamestate.

...You wouldn't want to yeet him over merel... Who you earlier in the post said had claimed?

In unrelated news, I may have found another neutral.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Hello. With the mechanics in this game, I would actually like to be lynched to prove my innocence. Unless I just die. Eeek! Also, I'm starting ceramics again tomorrow! Yay!!

I... don't have much to say. Kind of a new experience for me, as far as Mafia goes. I'm not even keeping much of a diary.

I haven't met Dakrsidder. Would like to know better - unfamiliar people will always be my weakness in Mafia.

I don't see how Persolus has survived all the stuff we've thrown at him. I used my only harmful power use on him! I might need that later! (If he has survived. I am not quite sure. But there has been no message saying he was removed from the game).



Uh - Persolus? I honestly have nothing else right now, but I will do my homework and try to get my thoughts in order.

Town read right now are AV and Snow though. Serious trouble reading flat, so I hope I do not get stuck in the final day with him.



ARGH STOP DOING THAT PERSOLUS!!!!

(if he really isn't dead. I just cannot tell this game).

I can't find this merel claim you speak of?

If the answer is yes I have no knowlege of it. I have no ties to either a cultist or Cultist.

...You wouldn't want to yeet him over merel... Who you earlier in the post said had claimed?

In unrelated news, I may have found another neutral.

Not a neutral, which is a shame, since I enjoy playing odd neutral roles. I find they tend to be more interesting.

I don't mean role-claimed; I suggest you read the quoted post from Merel. I mean that Merel has volunteered that she has a) one-time use powers, and b) an offensive power, which has been used. Given this, I can hazard a guess as to her role, which in Guide would be one aligned with Above. Especially since she is willing to die, which is a bit of a gamble. And so while none of this is definitive, and I still think that she's probably a better yeet than Flat, I am considering this a partial claim.

[Caedorus]

Not a neutral, which is a shame, since I enjoy playing odd neutral roles. I find they tend to be more interesting.

I don't mean role-claimed; I suggest you read the quoted post from Merel. I mean that Merel has volunteered that she has a) one-time use powers, and b) an offensive power, which has been used. Given this, I can hazard a guess as to her role, which in Guide would be one aligned with Above. Especially since she is willing to die, which is a bit of a gamble. And so while none of this is definitive, and I still think that she's probably a better yeet than Flat, I am considering this a partial claim.

Right, I see what you mean. There is indeed some info about her role there.
So, why is flat still more town-y?

[Athedia]

I did not comment on possible application of Guide Names into WW archetypes. For the most part, the Names speak for themselves - an Augur for town is almost certainly a seer, for instance, while Hunter is probably a vig - but the Apprentice flip seems to indicate a departure from strict Guide canon, so Aspects are not guaranteed to be the same as in the serial. Speculation at this point would be narrowing the possibilities of what people can do needlessly.

Something comes to mind. Voting off people apparently doesn't kill them immediately, which mean we rely on some kind of vig to finish off the wolves. And with the number of hits on Persolus, it seems to be vigs, plural.
Not going to try for them to claim, but it does indicate that a wolf could make a fuss about taking a wound without lying.

Cazero I have a question, you mention vig roles. 3SecondCultist did as well, but in a less certain manner. What makes you so certain Vigilante is a role type that is needed here?

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Also did anyone *else* have any effects in the night?

[Cazero]

Cazero I have a question, you mention vig roles. 3SecondCultist did as well, but in a less certain manner. What makes you so certain Vigilante is a role type that is needed here?

You mean besides the fact Persolus apparently got hit five times?

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I should probably land a vote today.

Soooo, 3SecondCultist? Maybe?

[Athedia]

You mean besides the fact Persolus apparently got hit five times?

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I should probably land a vote today.

Soooo, 3SecondCultist? Maybe?

there were at least 6 hits. Remember I did claim to be attacked.