A Small Wager – A Practical Guide to Evil

[Snowblaze]

According to you. I'm giving this the same weight I'm giving Athedia's claim - a good deal, but not absolute. Especially if what Caedorus says is true, he took a wound protecting flat last night - meaning that two people were attacked. Very possible in a game where wolves don't have an immediate kill.

I realize I'm supposed to be convincing you not to kill me, but still. It'd be remiss if we treated this as absolute.

Yeah, fair, it is not absolute. That was me being a little snarky because of Athedia claiming she was attacked in the same way and then asking me why I should be townread. Sorry.

Day one, visitor.

My fate: minor injury.

No other effect.

Night one, visitors.

One is the same as before,

But also two more.

They bring injury,

But I could not be sure who.

No other effect.

Day two, nobody.

My fate: as of yet, unchanged.

My concerns abate.

Night two, visitor.

The same from first day and night.

But no injury.

Spoiler: D1 Votes

Show

Based on Persolus,

Unlikely that my own wounds

Due to votes/wagons.

Based on my info,

One visitor is town vig

With a night power.

Night power is safe.

They visited on both nights,

But I was hurt once.

Basic conclusion:

Day injury from dayvig.

Night injury, not.

Other visitors

Caused the second injury.

But just one of them.

I know which one harmed,

Because the other just watched,

But saw Snow instead.

They're looking for me,

But I had hidden myself

Away, behind her.

That means injury

Is from the third visitor.

...but are they below?

I think they're above,

But mama didn't raise no snitch.

Secret's safe with me.

Night two, I hide again.

This time, behind the player

Who visited me thrice.

If their night power

Does no harm to their target,

They would find themself.

So, translating these for clarity, you're claiming:

You have a passive self-watch, informing you who targets you each phase. You can also hide behind a player each night phase, so that each non-harmful action targeting you targets them instead.

Day One you were visited by [redacted] and received a minor injury. Night One you hid behind me, and were visited by [redacted] again and two others, and one of the new players visiting you gave you a second minor injury while the other was redirected to me. No-one visited you Day Two. Night Two you hid behind [redacted] and received no injuries.

Correct me if I'm misinterpreting anything, please.

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I would rather not claim my evidence in favour of Cazero atp. It's less convincing than I thought given other claims we've had, so I wouldn't put any weight on it. He was still fourth vote on Persolus though.

Xihirli, does what you said mean you retract your AV townread?

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Declaring intent to shoot CaoimhinTheCape

If you have evidence to suggest that's a bad idea, speak within the next ~12 hours or forever hold your peace.

[AvatarVecna]

So, translating these for clarity, you're claiming:

You have a passive self-watch, informing you who targets you each phase. You can also hide behind a player each night phase, so that each non-harmful action targeting you targets them instead.

Day One you were visited by [redacted] and received a minor injury. Night One you hid behind me, and were visited by [redacted] again and two others, and one of the new players visiting you gave you a second minor injury while the other was redirected to me. No-one visited you Day Two. Night Two you hid behind [redacted] and received no injuries.

Correct me if I'm misinterpreting anything, please.

Apologies for

Translation requirement.

But yes, that is right.

No apology

For hiding behind you, Snow.

Harm still hits me.

I would rather not claim my evidence in favour of Cazero atp. It's less convincing than I thought given other claims we've had, so I wouldn't put any weight on it. He was still fourth vote on Persolus though.

Fourth vote? I missed one!

And he was counterwagon

To Persolus too.

Xihirli, does what you said mean you retract your AV townread?

In truth, a fair stance,

Since I am neither with you,

Nor against you. Fun!

(Realistically...)

(I'm sort of with you, above!)

(As is tradition.)

Declaring intent to shoot CaoimhinTheCape

If you have evidence to suggest that's a bad idea, speak within the next ~12 hours or forever hold your peace.

I'm holding my peace,

But not forever, I think.

I have noticed things.
Pressure means nothing.
I'm having fun, so I'll die
Before this bit does.

[3SecondCultist]

Ohhhhh. Obviously.

AV, I had it wrong. I think I know who you are.

[AvatarVecna]

Ohhhhh. Obviously.

AV, I had it wrong. I think I know who you are.

If this is about

The "as is tradition" line,

I meant in werewolf.

Neutrals will townside

Unless they really shouldn't.

Just our default play.

On the other hand,

If this is about not that,

Keep it to yourself.

[Snowblaze]

Ohhhhh. Obviously.

AV, I had it wrong. I think I know who you are.

...yup, I think I have the same theory.

So, uh, given [MAJOR PGTE SPOILERS], how concerned should we be?

[Let'sGetKraken]

...yup, I think I have the same theory.

So, uh, given [MAJOR PGTE SPOILERS], how concerned should we be?

I don't know how I didn't put it together earlier. If she's telling the truth, she's definitely is no Villain, if we're on the same page. Also, AV has not read Guide, importantly.

It does mean that we might have a Below-aligned Neutral. Which is concerning. I don't think Book would include major story spoilers, so not the one you're thinking of Snow/Cultist.

Also, since Cultist spent time looking into it and I think my hints were largely too obscure - none of my hints (other than just straight-up talking about my night effects) have been directed towards my abilities. They've all been about the exact type and nature of my Role.

I am increasingly concerned that some of the wolves are just playing nice., and that Snow/Cultist/Athedia absolutely contains at least one wolf.

AV, you've mentioned that you're on our side, somewhat. Do you feel comfortable disclosing your win condition?

[Caedorus]

1. I’m pretty.
2. Cape and AV. In that order. I know what I said.
3. Darksider smells nice.
4. You! Ya!

How do I smell? :P

...yup, I think I have the same theory.

So, uh, given [MAJOR PGTE SPOILERS], how concerned should we be?

Oh that's NOT FAIR

I'm so close to the end, I've just started the last book, and I still don't get it

[3SecondCultist]

I have pretty much answered these in earlier posts

I didn't vote because it seemed more scummy for me to wagon when my actions were only marginally less suspicious, hence why I listed myself as the next best option; don't have much else to offer

Generally if I'm casting suspicion on someone or a small group, I will put my vote there to actually create pressure and a conversation, ideally with the person involved so that wolfslips can happen and facts can get checked. The interaction is usually played out more when an actual vote is involved. Wagons aren't inherently bad - right or wrong, they advance the gamestate. Here on D3 with one outed (dead) wolf and a bunch of claims that seem to verify each other to create the perception of a towncore (as Snow likes to say, shut up tinfoil voice).

Listing yourself as the next best option after mentioning two other potential wolves isn't a great defense either, imo.

Declaring intent to shoot CaoimhinTheCape

If you have evidence to suggest that's a bad idea, speak within the next ~12 hours or forever hold your peace.

Go for it. Should help solve a few other people, depending on the flip.

[Snowblaze]

Have submitted the action. I believe it won't resolve until end of phase though.

Given that votes on Caoimhin are rather pointless, so we should probably start some other wagons.

Dakrsidder, anyone?

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Oh, also, to clear up some confusion:

Cazero's vote on Persolus was the fourth at the time he placed it; Kraken then abandoned that wagon, meaning Persolus had three votes at EOD1. I was getting slightly confused with the four votes Xihirli had as well, though.

[3SecondCultist]

...yup, I think I have the same theory.

So, uh, given [MAJOR PGTE SPOILERS], how concerned should we be?

If that's your comment, your theory is different from mine.

I don't know how I didn't put it together earlier. If she's telling the truth, she's definitely is no Villain, if we're on the same page. Also, AV has not read Guide, importantly.

It does mean that we might have a Below-aligned Neutral. Which is concerning. I don't think Book would include major story spoilers, so not the one you're thinking of Snow/Cultist.

Also, since Cultist spent time looking into it and I think my hints were largely too obscure - none of my hints (other than just straight-up talking about my night effects) have been directed towards my abilities. They've all been about the exact type and nature of my Role.

I am increasingly concerned that some of the wolves are just playing nice., and that Snow/Cultist/Athedia absolutely contains at least one wolf.

AV, you've mentioned that you're on our side, somewhat. Do you feel comfortable disclosing your win condition?

I agree that AV is probably not a Villain. Reading between the lines (yes I clocked that AV hasn't read the serial, so it's her take on the role assuming it isn't a prerequisite to posting, which is a possibility), I don't think she's THAT role.

Also, rude. I'm not going to give you OMGUS points, suspecting that which has not been flipped is still fine. It would be weird if you weren't suspicious of all these claims and verifications - if I wasn't in the loop, I'd also be looking for a wolf there. It's still possible in particular that Athedia is not who I think she is (my original guess of Squire is a lot less likely now that flat has flipped as White Knight).

I would also like to hear AV's wincon, though.

- - - Updated - - -

Have submitted the action. I believe it won't resolve until end of phase though.

Given that votes on Caoimhin are rather pointless, so we should probably start some other wagons.

Dakrsidder, anyone?

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, also, to clear up some confusion:

Cazero's vote on Persolus was the fourth at the time he placed it; Kraken then abandoned that wagon, meaning Persolus had three votes at EOD1. I was getting slightly confused with the four votes Xihirli had as well, though.

I mean, if you're shooting Cao, then it doesn't make much sense for me to leave a vote there. See my prior comments about Dakrsidder's posting and why they're a wolfread for me.

I'll throw my vote in for Dakrsidder, if only to see some more engagement.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Actually, yes, Athedia, in terms of transitory names you could have, I'm not really seeing any options for you other than Squire, which is admittedly still compatible with Above, but given that we do have a White Knight already, concerning. Do you mind claiming?

[3SecondCultist]

Generally if I'm casting suspicion on someone or a small group, I will put my vote there to actually create pressure and a conversation, ideally with the person involved so that wolfslips can happen and facts can get checked. The interaction is usually played out more when an actual vote is involved. Wagons aren't inherently bad - right or wrong, they advance the gamestate. Here on D3 with one outed (dead) wolf and a bunch of claims that seem to verify each other to create the perception of a towncore (as Snow likes to say, shut up tinfoil voice).

I realized that I didn't finish my thoughts from this post. Sorry it's early and I just got to work.

What I started to say was:

Here on D3, town has less risk from a mislynch. I believe we are generally in a pretty good spot, in terms of the ratio of 'information to living townies with votes' that seems to determine these games. I believe in most of the claims at this point, which may be a problem down the line but is really helping to clear up the POE pool.

We did get lucky on the randvotes for a wolf, though, which has really helped town.

[Athedia]

If that's your comment, your theory is different from mine.



I agree that AV is probably not a Villain. Reading between the lines (yes I clocked that AV hasn't read the serial, so it's her take on the role assuming it isn't a prerequisite to posting, which is a possibility), I don't think she's THAT role.

Also, rude. I'm not going to give you OMGUS points, suspecting that which has not been flipped is still fine. It would be weird if you weren't suspicious of all these claims and verifications - if I wasn't in the loop, I'd also be looking for a wolf there. It's still possible in particular that Athedia is not who I think she is (my original guess of Squire is a lot less likely now that flat has flipped as White Knight).

I would also like to hear AV's wincon, though.

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I mean, if you're shooting Cao, then it doesn't make much sense for me to leave a vote there. See my prior comments about Dakrsidder's posting and why they're a wolfread for me.

I'll throw my vote in for Dakrsidder, if only to see some more engagement.

Actually, yes, Athedia, in terms of transitory names you could have, I'm not really seeing any options for you other than Squire, which is admittedly still compatible with Above, but given that we do have a White Knight already, concerning. Do you mind claiming?

Ouch that hurts (but not really)



Flat is a better bet, I am also using a defensive power on him at night as given my name I think it is fitting.

Does that answer your question? If not I can be more obvious.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Does that answer your question? If not I can be more obvious.

There are five transitory names in the setting (though Book could have invented more). Squire, Cursed, Heir/Heiress, Apprentice, and Young Slayer. Of that, the only ones that you could realistically have is Squire. None of the others fit that particular ability.

Squires traditionally end up as knights of some sort. White Knight (taken) and Black Knight (not a good look) are the standard options, but not the only ones, which makes this plausible but again, not a great look.

I'm sharing this because it is a bit unfair if Snow, Cultist, and I are the only ones with this meta knowledge.

[Dakrsidder]

Generally if I'm casting suspicion on someone or a small group, I will put my vote there to actually create pressure and a conversation, ideally with the person involved so that wolfslips can happen and facts can get checked. The interaction is usually played out more when an actual vote is involved. Wagons aren't inherently bad - right or wrong, they advance the gamestate. Here on D3 with one outed (dead) wolf and a bunch of claims that seem to verify each other to create the perception of a towncore (as Snow likes to say, shut up tinfoil voice).

Listing yourself as the next best option after mentioning two other potential wolves isn't a great defense either, imo.

Ah, I suppose that makes sense

You misunderstand what I meant; it’s in no way a defense, nor do I intend to give one, so we’ll be finding out on the lynch

[Athedia]

Okay since I apparently do need to spell it out, I want you to reveal at least part of your Name or aspects first. Because you really seem to want to make me a target even though I think I spelled it out pretty clearly. I laid the hints so those who read the story would get them on purpose, btw I have not. But I can google my Name.

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Also to bring up that the internet exists (and TV tropes as well is part of that) so people can do some research into the story on their own.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Okay since I apparently do need to spell it out, I want you to reveal at least part of your Name or aspects first. Because you really seem to want to make me a target even though I think I spelled it out pretty clearly. I laid the hints so those who read the story would get them on purpose, btw I have not. But I can google my Name.

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Also to bring up that the internet exists (and TV tropes as well is part of that) so people can do some research into the story on their own.

You stated you had a transitory name - can you clarify whether you're on that list, or whether I am misunderstanding and you have a name a character held before getting another, which is a very different thing. Maybe that's the issue here and I am misunderstanding you.

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Though I would really strongly suggest people avoid spoilers for the sake of it, Guide is really quite phenomenal.

[Athedia]

You stated you had a transitory name - can you clarify whether you're on that list, or whether I am misunderstanding and you have a name a character held before getting another, which is a very different thing. Maybe that's the issue here and I am misunderstanding you.

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Though I would really strongly suggest people avoid spoilers for the sake of it, Guide is really quite phenomenal.

1st, there have been studies that show exposing yourself to spoilers actually makes the experience more enjoyable as you have anticipatory feelings/don't feel as blindsided/can see the events falling in place.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10....56797611417007
https://www.jbe-platform.com/content...ssol.3.1.09lea

And yes, I understand that. Except in this game no one had a Name before being given one. And I specifically did call out me being aligned with one person

[Let'sGetKraken]

Also, I'm not trying to make you a target, but you're getting a lot of towncred and I think the justification for that is solid but certainly not ironclad. Especially because the wolves have to be somewhere, and that pool is closing dramatically.

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1st, there have been studies that show exposing yourself to spoilers actually makes the experience more enjoyable as you have anticipatory feelings/don't feel as blindsided/can see the events falling in place.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10....56797611417007
https://www.jbe-platform.com/content...ssol.3.1.09lea

And yes, I understand that. Except in this game no one had a Name before being given one. And I specifically did call out me being aligned with one person

See, that's fair. I will accept this for now.

[Athedia]

Also do you really think I am that stupid that knowing because I can look things up that I would lay down clues to what I think is pretty obvious if I were Below? No, I wouldn't have said anything because that would be incredibly stupid. Sadly playing town means I have to be a bit stupid to try to share information.

[flat_footed]

Speaking of which, flat? Know you're busy, but anything to report on the boost side?

No boosts as of yet, still sitting at 3 minor injuries.

[Athedia]

No boosts as of yet, still sitting at 3 minor injuries.

Flat darling, that's the Black Knight. :P

[Let'sGetKraken]

Also do you really think I am that stupid that knowing because I can look things up that I would lay down clues to what I think is pretty obvious if I were Below? No, I wouldn't have said anything because that would be incredibly stupid. Sadly playing town means I have to be a bit stupid to try to share information.

Athedia, I don't think you're an idiot. I am pressing you for information. There is a difference. I think it's perfectly reasonable to - when someone hints at a role that could be questionable - force them to provide more information in order to potentially catch them in a lie. This is not personal, this is me trying to win us the game by not letting wolves pocket town, which I think mathematically needs to be the case.

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But you did ask for more information on my Role, so I will say - my Role is among those we've seen written in the thread by people not me already.

[AvatarVecna]

I don't know how I didn't put it together earlier. If she's telling the truth, she's definitely is no Villain, if we're on the same page. Also, AV has not read Guide, importantly.

It does mean that we might have a Below-aligned Neutral. Which is concerning. I don't think Book would include major story spoilers, so not the one you're thinking of Snow/Cultist.

Also, since Cultist spent time looking into it and I think my hints were largely too obscure - none of my hints (other than just straight-up talking about my night effects) have been directed towards my abilities. They've all been about the exact type and nature of my Role.

I am increasingly concerned that some of the wolves are just playing nice., and that Snow/Cultist/Athedia absolutely contains at least one wolf.

AV, you've mentioned that you're on our side, somewhat. Do you feel comfortable disclosing your win condition?

I can at least say,

Searching my name, my fluff is

like, Selfish Neutral?

Not above-aligned,

At least within the story.

But I'll still townside.

In order to win,

I must end the game alive.

Full stop. Period.

My only concern:

Aspects/names can change with time?

Maybe wincons too?

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Like, this sounds bad but,

My first thought reading wiki:

"Can I be culted?"

With my powers known,

Culting me doesn't help wolves.

Since people won't look.

And if they don't look,

Antimemetics don't matter.

No secret vortex.

- - - Updated - - -

As we're short on time,

And I gutlean them above,

"[REDACTED]" is Cape.

[Snowblaze]

In other words: Caoimhin caused minor injury to AV Day One, and visited them both Nights One and Two with no observable effect (and may possibly have been redirected to me and themselves respectively).

Caoimhin, is this accurate?

Everyone else, thoughts?

Actually didn't Merel claim to have received a minor injury during D2? It could be that that wasn't due to the votes as we suspected, but due to Caoimhin shooting them. And if that's the case... need to go ISO Caoimhin now.

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No mention of AV in Caoimhin's ISO D1. They did vote Merel D2.

I feel like there's something wrong here. What am I missing? Who am I misclearing?

My AV theory is probably wrong.

There's a lot of stuff I'm probably wrong about.

Tinfoil voice says I could be very pocketed by 3SC rn. I don't want to listen to tinfoil voice.

What are numbers? Thirteen players, one dead wolf, two town die today + one tonight, let's assume three wolves and two neutrals, that's then 5:2:2 which is not ideal but also not game over. And part of me hopes that it'll be the last desperate stand of the heroes against the forces of Below and thus we'll have Providence in our favour if it comes to that.

I guess the question is: do people still believe that Caoimhin and Dakrsidder are the best kills for today?

[MerelBlackbird]

In other words: Caoimhin caused minor injury to AV Day One, and visited them both Nights One and Two with no observable effect (and may possibly have been redirected to me and themselves respectively).

Caoimhin, is this accurate?

Everyone else, thoughts?

Actually didn't Merel claim to have received a minor injury during D2? It could be that that wasn't due to the votes as we suspected, but due to Caoimhin shooting them. And if that's the case... need to go ISO Caoimhin now.

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No mention of AV in Caoimhin's ISO D1. They did vote Merel D2.

I feel like there's something wrong here. What am I missing? Who am I misclearing?

My AV theory is probably wrong.

There's a lot of stuff I'm probably wrong about.

Tinfoil voice says I could be very pocketed by 3SC rn. I don't want to listen to tinfoil voice.

What are numbers? Thirteen players, one dead wolf, two town die today + one tonight, let's assume three wolves and two neutrals, that's then 5:2:2 which is not ideal but also not game over. And part of me hopes that it'll be the last desperate stand of the heroes against the forces of Below and thus we'll have Providence in our favour if it comes to that.

I guess the question is: do people still believe that Caoimhin and Dakrsidder are the best kills for today?

I did get a minor injury D2, yes. And Caoimhin and Dakrsidder do seem like the best kills today.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

In other words: Caoimhin caused minor injury to AV Day One, and visited them both Nights One and Two with no observable effect (and may possibly have been redirected to me and themselves respectively).

Caoimhin, is this accurate?

Yeah, that's mostly accurate. Dayvig is too strong of a word to describe it, but yes, one of my abilities is to give minor injuries. I wasn't trying to actually visit AV Night 1 (Persolus was the intended target) so I'm not sure what happened there.

[Xihirli]

Have submitted the action. I believe it won't resolve until end of phase though.

Given that votes on Caoimhin are rather pointless, so we should probably start some other wagons.

Dakrsidder, anyone?

Dakrsidder is town.
Unvote: whoever it was I was voting for

Am I missing why a Cape vote would be a waste? Sorry, I’m kind of at work at this moment.

CaoimhinTheCape to try a counter wagon.

And dang it, may as well.
I am the Seer, Dakrsiddar is town. I thought AV was town as well but I think that night power was tampered with.

[AvatarVecna]

Dakrsidder is town.
Unvote: whoever it was I was voting for

Am I missing why a Cape vote would be a waste? Sorry, I’m kind of at work at this moment.

CaoimhinTheCape to try a counter wagon.

And dang it, may as well.
I am the Seer, Dakrsiddar is town. I thought AV was town as well but I think that night power was tampered with.

I suspected this.

It's why when you townread me,

I townread Snowblaze.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Dakrsidder is town.
Unvote: whoever it was I was voting for

Am I missing why a Cape vote would be a waste? Sorry, I’m kind of at work at this moment.

CaoimhinTheCape to try a counter wagon.

And dang it, may as well.
I am the Seer, Dakrsiddar is town. I thought AV was town as well but I think that night power was tampered with.

Interesting. Are you claiming your Role is seer, or that you are mechanically a seer?