A Small Wager – A Practical Guide to Evil

[Cazero]

And the hits on Persolus are unlikely to be from wolves or even serial killers. Hence, we got vigs. Plural.

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Well, one of those got claimed as a oneshot. So maybe singular.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Right, I see what you mean. There is indeed some info about her role there.
So, why is flat still more town-y?

I don't think that flat is necessary more town-y at this point. I think that flat's voting from D1 is better, and flipping him gives us pretty much no information because he hasn't really given reads on anyone.

You mean besides the fact Persolus apparently got hit five times?

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I should probably land a vote today.

Soooo, 3SecondCultist? Maybe?

I think Cultist reacted in a very townish way to me calling him a neutral, which was partially why I did it. I'm not saying he isn't a wolf, but between the fact that someone else is corroborating that Snow is likely town, I don't think he should be our target today. If we want to untangle the chain of Snow-Caedorus-Cultist, I think Snow would be the person to test there. But I am open to being convinced.

there were at least 6 hits. Remember I did claim to be attacked.

To both you and Cazero - we know from the end of D1 that Persolus was "struck thrice". At end of N1, we saw that he sustained two major and three minor injuries, but not necessarily during the night. It's likely that he was only hit by 1-3 things last night, depending on how major vs minor injuries are calculated. We know (theoretically) that Merel was one of them, but I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that other Town with offensive powers saw the not-dead wolf and shanked as hard as they could (with good reason). I think it's more likely that being voted inflicts injuries and reveals your role, and accumulating a certain number of them actually kills you.

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I suppose I'm okay with flat in the absence of any other real wagon. I'm increasingly on the fence about Merel. I'm heading into a meeting for a couple of hours but will review and vote when I'm back.

[Xihirli]

Unvote: Merelblackbird

Haven’t heard from CaoimhinTheCape all day. Not a lot to go on, but I’m happier with that than Merel right now.

[3SecondCultist]

I'm the Thief. I'd rather not give my aspects just yet but it's with one of those that I have gained information about Snow that makes me think she's town.

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Theoretically, I can win at the end of next day (so, three more phases from now including this one). However that's unlikely because it would require me to have incredible luck.

Hmm. I have thoughts on this (see below).

But then the question becomes... where do we think the wolves are hiding?

In consulting Cultist's list, Caedorus and Merel have both (partially) claimed. Snow, AV, and I are the other three. People are vouching for AV and Snow, and I will claim if necessary (though would prefer not to for several very valid reasons). I'd prefer we get a bit more information as to how the narrative of our posts can impact actual mechanics before I do so. I have non-mechanical reasons for reading Cultist as town at this point, but they're not definitive. Everyone else I have some reasons to townlean.

Speaking of which, Cultist, are you willing to comment on whether your source was Caedorus? No is a perfectly valid answer.

No comment on the source.

I feel like a lot of people are second-guessing the Merel wagon because they're townreading her posts. Which... fair, I guess? They read as someone new to the game who has no compulsions about dying. If I'm reading the hints right, there's a world I can see her as Above as well, though it's not a sure thing.

Xi moving off of Merel to Cao just now is interesting.

---

I need to consider my own reads, not analyze everyone else's. My wagonomics from D1 doesn't seem to have turned up anything of value - lots of people defending other people - and a lot of plausibly towny responses and defenses. Some notes from D2, just based on my review.

• 3SC has claimed that Snow is town, will not reveal his sources (honestly rude of him).
• There is a Providence mechanic in play, mostly confirmed. Narrator jumped in to resurrect Persolus when I declaimed 'he couldn't possibly have survived that'.
• Xi has supported AV, said she's playing towny. Potential pairing there.
• Merel apparently wants to die, is soft-claiming a certain Name to Above.
• Caedorus has also defended Snow, claiming information that she's town.

You know what? Maybe it's my tinfoil hat, but I am growing increasingly leery of the potential pocket from Caedorus. I don't need to test Snow to know she's town, but I don't trust another townie who is chiming in towards EOD to back up my position while providing no new information. Regurgitating evidence and making vague notions as well. The Thief, while ostensibly Neutral, could also be Below for story reasons that I'm not going to explain in full detail (spoilers). It'd be a decent way for a wolf to get to the late game without getting any bad looks.

Furthermore, would a Neutral really out their window for victory a full three phases away while wolfteam is still actively hunting people at night? That seems like the kind of thing that a Neutral would keep to themselves.

(There is a good chance I'm wrong, but I'm willing to put a vote and some pressure here for now).

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I realize that - despite my reply to Kraken above - a vote on Caedorus is indeed commenting on the source of my information. To be clear, that source is not Caedorus. Other than that, I'm not willing to comment.

[Athedia]

Question: Providence mechanic? Like a "of we suggest it" thing? Or as it amuses the Storyteller?

[Dakrsidder]

As there's less than an hour left, I'll just point out that the votes are pretty scattered. Currently, there's 2 for Merel, 1 for Persolus, 1 for flat_footed, 1 for Cazero, 1 for 3SC, 1 for Caoim, and 1 for Caedorus.

[Let'sGetKraken]

As there's less than an hour left, I'll just point out that the votes are pretty scattered. Currently, there's 2 for Merel, 1 for Persolus, 1 for flat_footed, 1 for Cazero, 1 for 3SC, 1 for Caoim, and 1 for Caedorus.

Meeting is done.

Cazero should not be voted here, being the fourth vote on Persolus. Though, hm. The options for counterwagon would have been switching to Xihirli (kind of sketchy) or him as the wagon, so I can plausibly see a wolf staying on Persolus here? Very unlikely though. Loses a teensy bit of towncred but is still above most everyone else.

Cultist is... I don't want to get rid of Cultist yet. I'm townreading him and he is being solvy. I'm not super actively against it - I don't think I'll vote to prevent it - but I won't vote there.

Cao could have shifted to Cazero to wagon him and actively declined to, but was never voting Persolus. I don't like it as a last-minute wagon. I think he's a very valid option for an opening pressure-vote tomorrow and absolutely deserves more scrutiny.

Caedorus is the safest bet, but I do see a reason for a claim here. It's not like he's going to be a priority nightkill target, especially while he is being at least somewhat helpful to town. I also want to encourage other neutrals to work with town if possible.

Flat gives us basically no information and did start the Persolus wagon.

I don't want to put more votes on Merel because I'm worried that the number of votes can correspond to injuries, based on the "struck thrice". But I am okay with Merel in the absence of strong feelings.

I'm tempted to vote for Persolus at the moment, just in case, but I think we can probably wait on that to see if we get any further indication.

I'll be here in case wolves try to pull a fast one, but no vote for now.

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I'll vote for Persolus as a placeholder. In case there is negative vote manipulation.

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Nah, Caedorus. I don't want him dead, but he's the second-best option here if there's vote manipulation and a Persolus vote gives us no information. Ideally this gets Merel with minimal injuries.

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Question: Providence mechanic? Like a "of we suggest it" thing? Or as it amuses the Storyteller?

The variant-specific rules mention Providence as a mechanic of some sort.

Speaking of which, ties are resolved not by random chance, but by another mechanic. [Redacted speculation for ties until the day ends]

[Book Wombat]

Day Two ends now, please wait for results.

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Fingers pointed at one another; father, daughter, son and mother. So in the end, there lies another friend. But he doesn't seem quite dead, just a little red.

flat_footed has been judged, and struck thrice.

White Knight (Above)
Above's merciless hand, a sword and shield against Below's forces, you are a blazing torch in the darkness.

Aspects:
- Smite
- Rise

---

Night Two starts now, it will in end in ~23 hours.

[MerelBlackbird]

Dumb guess: do only players with exactly three votes get lynched? The flavor does always say "struck thrice."

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I also did get a minor injury from that.

[Snowblaze]

Welp, got more distracted than planned.

Anyway, too tired for a votecount but unless I'm mistaken I was the only one voting flat. So vote manipulation is still in play. I... do actually have a theory about that but not sure if it's one I should mention.

Actual thoughts tomorrow at some point.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Dumb guess: do only players with exactly three votes get lynched? The flavor does always say "struck thrice."

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I also did get a minor injury from that.

Flat only got one visible vote, so I don't think it's that. I think we can either infer that wolves have a two-vote manipulation, or that being judged always counts as "struck thrice".

Hey flat, can you confirm whether you're still alive? Or you can wait until D3, but either way, would be helpful in figuring out mechanics and you giving reads now that you're confirmed town.

[3SecondCultist]

Flat only got one visible vote, so I don't think it's that. I think we can either infer that wolves have a two-vote manipulation, or that being judged always counts as "struck thrice".

Hey flat, can you confirm whether you're still alive? Or you can wait until D3, but either way, would be helpful in figuring out mechanics and you giving reads now that you're confirmed town.

My thoughts are leaning towards the latter: that judgment (through a lynch) counts as 'being struck thrice'. I do think there is a wolf with vote manipulation in play: likely a Chancellor or some other political Name.

Another theory from the lack of dead townies N1: wolves don't have a full NK. They can injure someone a certain amount of times, but it's not a full 3/3 death. I think that might be part of the bastard mechanic where wolves can come back if it seems to buck the genre to do so (see 'Cultist's cliff mistake').

[AvatarVecna]

Unvote: Merelblackbird

Haven’t heard from CaoimhinTheCape all day. Not a lot to go on, but I’m happier with that than Merel right now.

mmmm wonder why guess we'll never know

[flat_footed]

Flat only got one visible vote, so I don't think it's that. I think we can either infer that wolves have a two-vote manipulation, or that being judged always counts as "struck thrice".

Hey flat, can you confirm whether you're still alive? Or you can wait until D3, but either way, would be helpful in figuring out mechanics and you giving reads now that you're confirmed town.

I still live, for now

I assume I'll die tonight

Just like Persolus

[Let'sGetKraken]

I still live, for now

I assume I'll die tonight

Just like Persolus

Well, with your looming death, you want to give us reads?in either haiku or non-haiku form?

[Caedorus]

Ok I can either help town or wolves now

accepting bribes, go

[Let'sGetKraken]

Ok I can either help town or wolves now

accepting bribes, go

Wolves aren't going to spend time killing a neutral when they could kill town.

If you're working with wolves, it is absolutely in our interest to kill you. But if you're either just doing your own thing or helping us, there's no point to killing you.

Oh, and sorry about the vote - glad it didn't kill you, I was just hoping to avoid this exact scenario.

[Caedorus]

I'm satisfied with this for now.

Nah, Caedorus.

For small slights...

Wolves aren't going to spend time killing a neutral when they could kill town.

If you're working with wolves, it is absolutely in our interest to kill you. But if you're either just doing your own thing or helping us, there's no point to killing you.

Oh, and sorry about the vote - glad it didn't kill you, I was just hoping to avoid this exact scenario.

Apology accepted. For this I'll not Smite you. But I will have my long price eventually.

Also also I have confirmed flat is town but that's not really relevant since the narrator stole my rug :(

You have a point, so I won't help wolves, but I'll require more bribes before I'll help town. What's in it for me, you know.

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Let's raise the stakes a bit (because I'm bored and noone is responding). I could save flat. If paid enough.

[Snowblaze]

What sort of price are you looking for? I don’t mind helping a neutral out if it doesn't go against town's interests.

Do you have a vote manipulation power?

[Let'sGetKraken]

For small slights...

Apology accepted. For this I'll not Smite you. But I will have my long price eventually.

Also also I have confirmed flat is town but that's not really relevant since the narrator stole my rug :(

You have a point, so I won't help wolves, but I'll require more bribes before I'll help town. What's in it for me, you know.

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Let's raise the stakes a bit (because I'm bored and noone is responding). I could save flat. If paid enough.

If I have any positive powers, I'll use them to aid you at some point; if I have negative powers, I'll give you immunity. And a pledge to vote in your defense.

[Caedorus]

What sort of price are you looking for? I don’t mind helping a neutral out if it doesn't go against town's interests.

Do you have a vote manipulation power?

Mainly what Kraken offered, getting to live long enough to win.
Also, not currently.

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If I have any positive powers, I'll use them to aid you at some point; if I have negative powers, I'll give you immunity. And a pledge to vote in your defense.

That's a sweet deal.
Ok, Flat has been Protected

[Book Wombat]

Night Two ends now, please wait for results.

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The cover of night conceals many a plight. Shouts of terror and fright resound, yet at dawn none lying are found. Day breaks, and so do the stakes.

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Day Three starts now, and will in end in ~47 hours.

[MerelBlackbird]

I lost... something last night. No idea what.
Who stole from me, or is it from using my normal power...

[Snowblaze]

hums to self

Right, firstly I'm pretty sure I know what Caedorus's power is. It doesn't *confirm* him as neutral but makes it significantly more likely imo.

Secondly I acquired a major injury last night - I'm going to assume this was done by wolves and wolves don't actually have a full nightkill. So since that leaves me, uh, rather vulnerable...

Thirdly I'm going to partially claim. I have a one-shot vig that can be used in any phase. As in, full vig, straight-out kills people. And I'm using it this day phase.

Taking suggestions on who to shoot.

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Oh, also, can I request people claim what injuries they've had if they haven't already? Thanks!

[3SecondCultist]

I lost... something last night. No idea what.
Who stole from me, or is it from using my normal power...

That would be me. I went fishing, to confirm that you were not a wolf without having to resort to a lynch.

To everyone: I can confirm with some certainty that Merel is not a wolf. If she is the Name I believe her to be, there is a slim possibility she is one regardless (Apprentice was Below, after all).

I am willing to confer with townies about the Aspect I borrowed and whether they think that means they are a wolf.

hums to self

Right, firstly I'm pretty sure I know what Caedorus's power is. It doesn't *confirm* him as neutral but makes it significantly more likely imo.

Secondly I acquired a major injury last night - I'm going to assume this was done by wolves and wolves don't actually have a full nightkill. So since that leaves me, uh, rather vulnerable...

Thirdly I'm going to partially claim. I have a one-shot vig that can be used in any phase. As in, full vig, straight-out kills people. And I'm using it this day phase.

Taking suggestions on who to shoot.

I would suggest someone quiet, or someone in the initial POE not named Caedorus or Merel. A one shot vig narrows down your Name a fair bit (I was wrong initially about you), but I already knew you were Above so it’s a fairly short list.

I am willing to claim as well today - though anyone who has read the serial should already know who I am.

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I have a new list of reads, but at work. I will post them later this evening.

[MerelBlackbird]

That would be me. I went fishing, to confirm that you were not a wolf without having to resort to a lynch.

To everyone: I can confirm with some certainty that Merel is not a wolf. If she is the Name I believe her to be, there is a slim possibility she is one regardless (Apprentice was Below, after all).

I am willing to confer with townies about the Aspect I borrowed and whether they think that means they are a wolf.



I would suggest someone quiet, or someone in the initial POE not named Caedorus or Merel. A one shot vig narrows down your Name a fair bit (I was wrong initially about you), but I already knew you were Above so it’s a fairly short list.

I am willing to claim as well today - though anyone who has read the serial should already know who I am.

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I have a new list of reads, but at work. I will post them later this evening.

Ah, thank you! I may claim also later today. After all, you will probably out my role XD.

[3SecondCultist]

Ah, thank you! I may claim also later today. After all, you will probably out my role XD.

A full claim would be best, yes. That will help a lot in confirming stuff to the rest of town.

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After all… to defeat Evil, we have to Put a Band Together.

[Athedia]

That would be me. I went fishing, to confirm that you were not a wolf without having to resort to a lynch.

To everyone: I can confirm with some certainty that Merel is not a wolf. If she is the Name I believe her to be, there is a slim possibility she is one regardless (Apprentice was Below, after all).

I am willing to confer with townies about the Aspect I borrowed and whether they think that means they are a wolf.



I would suggest someone quiet, or someone in the initial POE not named Caedorus or Merel. A one shot vig narrows down your Name a fair bit (I was wrong initially about you), but I already knew you were Above so it’s a fairly short list.

I am willing to claim as well today - though anyone who has read the serial should already know who I am.

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I have a new list of reads, but at work. I will post them later this evening.

I can actually confirm that 3SecondCultist has this power due to *my* use of an aspect last night.

[MerelBlackbird]

A full claim would be best, yes. That will help a lot in confirming stuff to the rest of town.

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After all… to defeat Evil, we have to Put a Band Together.

I am the Alchemist. Did you get my set of one shot powers (imbue), or my regular power (brew)?

[Let'sGetKraken]

I also targeted Merel. Cultist taking her power would absolutely fit with my results. In fact, it would explain an otherwise puzzling outcome.

Cultist, the one character famously known for this ability was decidedly not aligned with the heavens, unless I am missing something here. Am I missing something here?

I am willing to claim in an extremely dramatic fashion if necessary. It might even work.