OOTS #1301 - The Discussion Thread

[arimareiji]

But Kubota was appearently the worst of a bad lot. It's quite possible, that had they known that the world was at stake, some or all of the other nobles would have pulled together.

OTOH Telling Kubota and anyone else like him a decade or two ago that there are a bunch of gates, and if you control one of them you may be able to blackmail the gods and the entire population of the world, and that one is built into the throne of the city; that just MIGHT be more of a hinderance to defending the gates than losing the other nobles' forces right before the goblins attack.

So all in all, I must say that not telling them seems like the right call to me.

FWIW, this was the comic I had in mind: https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0289.html

Indeed, he was the worst of a bad lot -- but to me, them being not as bad as Kubota wrt petty little power games (i.e. less than "suicidally obsessed", but cheerfully willing to kill for them) is still an extremely bad omen for being able to work together for the common good. Even when it's manifest that the common good is absolutely, unequivocally in their best interest.

Come to think of it, I wonder if this was their national pastime (with the nobles just being the worst examples). (^_^)º https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0533.html

[hroþila]

But Kubota was appearently the worst of a bad lot. It's quite possible, that had they known that the world was at stake, some or all of the other nobles would have pulled together.

When Azure City was under threat, the most powerful nobles chose to walk away to preserve their own forces and undermine their liege lord, even though the fall of Azure City would be catastrophic to their own interests. If they knew the world was in danger they'd absolutely want someone to save the day, but I don't imagine they'd be willing to make any sacrifices themselves unless the situation was so dire and so urgent that it was already too late

[Precure]

You have much more faith in humanity than I do. (^_^)º

It selves their self interests that the world stay.

(I am blinking at the idea that Kubota would consider "the world will die" worse than "you'll die, but the world will go on without you." Between me and Precure, one of us has apparently read Kubota quite wrong.)

I didn't even mention Kubota? Also never said that they'll sacrifice themselves.

When Azure City was under threat, the most powerful nobles chose to walk away to preserve their own forces and undermine their liege lord, even though the fall of Azure City would be catastrophic to their own interests. If they knew the world was in danger they'd absolutely want someone to save the day, but I don't imagine they'd be willing to make any sacrifices themselves unless the situation was so dire and so urgent that it was already too late

They were under the impression that Xykon has no interest in the city itself (which is technically true) and they underrated goblinoids's capabilities of ruling a city, assumed they could take it back.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0414.html
https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0453.html

[danielxcutter]

To be fair, undeniable evidence that there won't be a city left to take back, or a world for it to be in, is something that might shift the calculus a bit. Also, Kubota was the only one who actively sent ninjas to assassinate Hinjo during the actual battle.

[KorvinStarmast]

When Azure City was under threat, the most powerful nobles chose to walk away to preserve their own forces and undermine their liege lord, even though the fall of Azure City would be catastrophic to their own interests. If they knew the world was in danger they'd absolutely want someone to save the day, but I don't imagine they'd be willing to make any sacrifices themselves unless the situation was so dire and so urgent that it was already too late

Bingo. Something like "fiddling while Rome Azure City burned ... "

Also, Kubota was the only one who actively sent ninjas to assassinate Hinjo during the actual battle.

Quite the jerk move.

[Doug Lampert]

That's just it: you cannot blackmail all the gods. Even being close to gaining control of where the rift opens is enough to have the gods voting to destroy the world. The gods can unmake the world faster than the gate ritual can be performed. TDO would know this if he had maintained contact with the other gods.

All of the deities have a vested interest in not allowing anyone to manipulate the rifts. Because of their rules they mostly choose to not interfere other than through their clergy. So, trying to use the rift is little more than a complicated way to commit suicide, and that is all it ever was.

Kubota might think he can use the bluff of controlling the gate, but he was not suicidal.

It does not matter at all to the gate safety whether you can actually use it to blackmail the gods.

What matters is whether when you told the Azure city nobles the secret lore of the Saphire Guard, what would Kubota hear. I think when you tell him, "This is one of five patchs on reality holding out a god killing abomination that wiped out a world and an entire pantheon in seconds" that what he will hear is "this is a tool you can use to blackmail gods, and he will try to take control, and this will cause the very problem telling Kubota this sort of thing was supposed to help avoid.

"If you tell him, his inevitable evil plan won't work because the gods will destroy the world to prevent it" does not actually help to preserve the world.

[arimareiji]

To be fair, undeniable evidence that there won't be a city left to take back, or a world for it to be in, is something that might shift the calculus a bit. Also, Kubota was the only one who actively sent ninjas to assassinate Hinjo during the actual battle.

Redcloak may have overstated his case for not believing Durkon, but "During a crisis, the guy you've spent your life undermining and probably perceive as a borderline enemy tells a wild story about why you should support him. It also flies in the face of everything you think you know, and demands that you sacrifice your own interests." is the polar opposite of undeniable evidence.

The Oatmeal has a brilliant comic explaining the biology and logic behind the backfire effect, and why humans refuse to believe things they don't want to even when there is proof. It's invaluable for understanding that maddening trait... though I would note that if NSFW language offends you, you should click "Classroom-friendly version" (under the first panel): https://theoatmeal.com/comics/believe

[Unoriginal]

Redcloak may have overstated his case for not believing Durkon, but "During a crisis, the guy you've spent your life undermining and probably perceive as a borderline enemy tells a wild story about why you should support him. It also flies in the face of everything you think you know, and demands that you sacrifice your own interests." is the polar opposite of undeniable evidence.

I mean, Durkon was doing the opposite of demanding Redcloak sacrifices his interest. He went "alright, you can keep the city you've conquered, have the goblinoid sovereignty over the region officially recognized by the ruler you conquered said region from (which would remove most of the objections other countries have to refuse to officially recognize it), and we'll work to close the giant rift that's taking a lot of the sky over your territory. All you have to do in exchange is free the citizens you've enslaved, cast a spell on the Gate, and not try the 'blackmail the gods' plan." The problem is that Redcloak can't consider living in a world where he doesn't get victory (and his own definition of victory, at that) through the one plan he dedicated his life to to be in his interest.

As for the Azure City nobles, "the undead abomination cannot be bargained with, but we stand a better chance fighting if your military assets are on our side. Which would be in your interest to do because you having the kind of power you have now depends on Azure City existing as it does" isn't a wild story or flying in the face of everything (or really, anything) any of them would know.

[Kardwill]

Kubota might think he can use the bluff of controlling the gate, but he was not suicidal.

That's the thing, though : What matters in this case is not the truth, but whatever Kubota (or another overambitious noble) think they can pull.

The gods' hair trigger is a well kept secret (probably because "the big guys up there will throw us under the bus the second they think they're in danger" doesn't really encourage devotion). The gods make a point of leaving no witness every time they do it. The order (and the readers) only learnt of it when Roy attended the Godsmoot. Even Serini, who was one of the 6 most knowledgeable people of her time about the snarl, didn't believe the gods would pull the plug to stop Xykon.

And even if the information about the gods' serial worldicide was made public, you would still have "smart guys" thinking "they're bluffing. Nobody would destroy the world just like that. I mean, it's the World, right? The place where everyone keep their stuuf. Kinda important. I can pull it off!"

Azure city's nobility does not strike me as the reasonable kind. Several examples we get to see are either petty, murderous, or overzealous. According to Shojo and to some commoner soldiers discussing his assassination, litteral cutthroat politics is apparently their SOP. To the point of letting the city (and their domains) get destroyed by an evil horde just to score some points against the current ruler. Tell them about the all-powerful entity beyond the throne-room, and some idiot getting stupid ideas at some point is likely.

[alceryes]

That's gotta be at least 6d6 - 6d8 of jaw-torn-wide-open damage there! Unfortunately, Bloodfeast may have sufferred the same.

This also takes out Calder's bite attack and (maybe?) his verbal spell component. A pretty great outcome for OOTS, no?

[Provengreil]

Redcloak may have overstated his case for not believing Durkon, but "During a crisis, the guy you've spent your life undermining and probably perceive as a borderline enemy tells a wild story about why you should support him. It also flies in the face of everything you think you know, and demands that you sacrifice your own interests." is the polar opposite of undeniable evidence.

The Oatmeal has a brilliant comic explaining the biology and logic behind the backfire effect, and why humans refuse to believe things they don't want to even when there is proof. It's invaluable for understanding that maddening trait... though I would note that if NSFW language offends you, you should click "Classroom-friendly version" (under the first panel): https://theoatmeal.com/comics/believe

Man I love it when webcomic authors take something like this and boil it into something easily linked and digestible. It's not common, but they have a habit of hitting the nail on the head when they do it.

I mean, Durkon was doing the opposite of demanding Redcloak sacrifices his interest. He went "alright, you can keep the city you've conquered, have the goblinoid sovereignty over the region officially recognized by the ruler you conquered said region from (which would remove most of the objections other countries have to refuse to officially recognize it), and we'll work to close the giant rift that's taking a lot of the sky over your territory. All you have to do in exchange is free the citizens you've enslaved, cast a spell on the Gate, and not try the 'blackmail the gods' plan." The problem is that Redcloak can't consider living in a world where he doesn't get victory (and his own definition of victory, at that) through the one plan he dedicated his life to to be in his interest.

I've always been of the opinion that Durkon did a poor job of explaining the issue with the gods to Redcloak. RC, despite the high wisdom he'd need as a cleric of his power, has always leaned more towards the intellectual side, while Durkon is clearly better with emotions. This played out in their discussion, especially towards the end. Redcloak only got a partial explanation of the issue because Durkon didn't realize he should complete it. Thus, while Durkon's argument wrapped up with some pretty optimistic talk, Redcloak simply didn't believe the underlying arguments(The fact that he didn't want to believe wouldn't help, obviously). That heavily contributed to Redcloak's decision.

Now, on a Doylist level, that talk was never going to work, at least not immediately(we might well come back to it in some fashion). There's too much of the story still to tell. On a Watsonian level though, if Redcloak had gotten the more complete explanation of the world cycle and the needs of the gods that Thor gave us, he might have been convinced.

[hroþila]

They were under the impression that Xykon has no interest in the city itself (which is technically true) and they underrated goblinoids's capabilities of ruling a city, assumed they could take it back.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0414.html
https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0453.html

But that's the thing, they're too selfish and self-absorbed not to miscalculate. "It's not so bad, someone will take care of it, I should rather focus on figuring out how to take advantage of the crisis" and next thing you know BAM the Snarl has unmade you

[gbaji]

I think that a lot of the theories and speculation about what the Azure City nobles may or may not have done with knowledge about the gate ahead of time, suffers from assumptions that the only idea anyone would have with regard to "using a gate for our own purposes" is essentially a copy of TDOs "Plan".

We know, however, that that's not the only thing that one might think to do with a gate. In fact, Xykon, the highest level arcane caster we know of in the comic, not only doesn't even know about the "hold the gods hostage" plan. He actually thinks "do a ritual and gain masive magical power to control the world" is what's happening. Similarly, Tarquin thought he could control the gate, and also had no plan involving "hold the gods hostage by threatening them with release of the snarl" either.

The overwhelmingly most likely response to anyone learning about the gates is something closer to what Xykon and Tarquin thought could be done with one, than what TDO wants to do with one. So judging the Nobles possible actions by deciding how much they would or would not be willing to hold the gods hostage by using threat of releasing the snarl, seems to be a strange and unuseful method.

Assume that they assume that if they control a gate that they can use it for "power". Don't care what that means. But it's power. And they want it. Then assess what they would do to control it.

[KorvinStarmast]

Assume that they assume that if they control a gate that they can use it for "power". Don't care what that means. But it's power. And they want it. Then assess what they would do to control it.

What gate?

[arimareiji]

I mean, Durkon was doing the opposite of demanding Redcloak sacrifices his interest.

Spoiler: collapsed for space

Show

He went "alright, you can keep the city you've conquered, have the goblinoid sovereignty over the region officially recognized by the ruler you conquered said region from (which would remove most of the objections other countries have to refuse to officially recognize it), and we'll work to close the giant rift that's taking a lot of the sky over your territory. All you have to do in exchange is free the citizens you've enslaved, cast a spell on the Gate, and not try the 'blackmail the gods' plan." The problem is that Redcloak can't consider living in a world where he doesn't get victory (and his own definition of victory, at that) through the one plan he dedicated his life to to be in his interest.

Indeed, which makes it a lot easier to swallow. Except humans and goblinoids both can't set aside a lifetime of "This is why I'm right and everything I've done is good" so easily. (Heck, Javert from Les Miserables jumped into a river near flood stage to avoid thinking about it.)

As for the Azure City nobles, "the undead abomination cannot be bargained with, but we stand a better chance fighting if your military assets are on our side. Which would be in your interest to do because you having the kind of power you have now depends on Azure City existing as it does" isn't a wild story or flying in the face of everything (or really, anything) any of them would know.

We might be on two different pages... the wild story I thought was the subject at hand is "Hey the gem in the throne is really a locked-up gate imprisoning a gods-killing abomination and if Team Evil takes it whole then the gods might destroy the world to stop them so either we band together to stop them or we abandon the city and destroy the locked-up gate which will blow up the castle and cause a rift in reality."

Edit: Now thinking I might have misunderstood... were you raising the point that if they couldn't believe that (and they didn't), then there was no way in Retail they would buy the whole truth explaining why existence itself was at stake?

[Lord Torath]

The Oatmeal has a brilliant comic explaining the biology and logic behind the backfire effect, and why humans refuse to believe things they don't want to even when there is proof. It's invaluable for understanding that maddening trait... though I would note that if NSFW language offends you, you should click "Classroom-friendly version" (under the first panel): https://theoatmeal.com/comics/believe

Yeah, about that....

Turns out, the 'Backfire Effect' only showed up in two of five studies.

Since then many other studies have been done by myself and my co-authors and by many other scholars finding the backfire effects seem to be exceptionally rare.

Great comic, though!

[Wintermoot]

Yeah, about that....

Turns out, the 'Backfire Effect' only showed up in two of five studies.
Great comic, though!

I am having a backfire effect about you doubting the backfire effect! *seethe* *seethe* *froth* *froth*

[bunsen_h]

Potato tomato.

In fact, there's such a plant as a "pomato", but it's a graft rather than a hybrid.

[arimareiji]

Yeah, about that....

Turns out, the 'Backfire Effect' only showed up in two of five studies.
Great comic, though!

Interesting article, but I wish they'd given specifics* about what was disproven. As someone commented in the article, the middle ground of "It Depends" usually holds more truth than "This Is Gospel Truth 100.1% Of The Time" or "Every Aspect Of This Is False." (^_^)º

* - E.g. the explanation/"story" that it makes people think about all the reasons they originally believed it?
The prevalence?
The notion that everyone has it just as bad, versus in varying degrees (down to "negligible")?
Because as is said a few times in the article, it's describing a real observed phenomenon. And as Freud proved, even if an idea is a revolutionary advance... you can still make a mockery of yourself if you try to make it explain everything.

[Kardwill]

We might be on two different pages... the wild story I thought was the subject at hand is "Hey the gem in the throne is really a locked-up gate imprisoning a gods-killing abomination and if Team Evil takes it whole then the gods might destroy the world to stop them so either we band together to stop them or we abandon the city and destroy the locked-up gate which will blow up the castle and cause a rift in reality."

Edit: Now thinking I might have misunderstood... were you raising the point that if they couldn't believe that (and they didn't), then there was no way in Retail they would buy the whole truth explaining why existence itself was at stake?

And, who would have explained the entire story? AFAIK, nobody except the gods knew about the "preventive destruction" part. The Order didn't know, the Scribblers (or at least Serini) didn't know, Shojo didn't know, Redcloak and Xykon didn't know. Serini's scenario of "we all get to live under Xykon" would have been the expected scenario of letting Team Evil go unopposed. It could even have convinced the nobles that defending the gate was more dangerous than surrendering it to team evil. After all, that was exactly what Serini, the most informed living person at the time, decided when that choice was thrown upon her.

[danielxcutter]

I would like to nitpick that Serini was not exactly making that decision entirely (or even mostly) on facts and logic.

[Kardwill]

Yeah, she suffers from a severe mixture of PTSD and grief about Xykon's murder spree. That was still a mostly rational decision with the information she had at the moment, though ("certainty of having a world that suck" VS "real possibility of having no world at all" is not an easy choice to make). And, to her credit, she quickly changed plan when exposed to new informations explaining why her plan wouldn't work (big difference with RC, who resorted immediately to murder to protect his worldview)


But I'd nitpick back that nobody makes their decisions purely based on facts and logic. We always add our emotions and our worldview to the mix. And Azure City's nobility doesn't look like a shining beacon of reason. ^^

[Vikenlugaid]

I mean, only one Scribbler left fake coordinates and an explosive trap specifically to bait and kill someone and it sure wasn't Soon.

Honestly if it wasn't for V accidentally killing the Draketooth clan with Familicide, they probably would have scry-and-die'd the Order and the comic probably would have ended a couple strips after that. Look at the list of illusions they were casting; Screen and Shifting Paths are both 8th-level spells, so that means they had at least three sorcerers of 16th level or higher. The others listed are rather lower (mostly 2nd, a couple mid-level ones) but some of them may have been martial classes or multiclass builds. And if even all of them were single-classed sorcerers, the Order still would have been outgunned and outnumbered by a wide margin - and that's in a fair fight, which they almost certainly wouldn't have done.

And if they were indoctrinated by Girard to the point where they refused to be rezzed from a LG cleric who's god wasn't even in the same pantheon Soon worshiped then I'd bet a dozen quatloos that they absolutely would have sent a kill team after the Order.

You are forgetting something important, they would know that Soon's Gate had been destroyed, I don't think they would just ignored that fact.

[danielxcutter]

These are the people who refused resurrection on basis of alignment despite Durkon's god being from an entirely different pantheon and the Order was in contact with (the remnants of) Azure City.

[Coppercloud]

Similarly, Tarquin thought he could control the gate, and also had no plan involving "hold the gods hostage by threatening them with release of the snarl" either.

Nitpick: I think Tarquin's plan was more "If I can control the area where the Gate is located, I decide who gets access to it and can prevent anyone from using it against my interests. I will study it, destroy it if it proves a threat, or sell it to the highest bidder depending on what the casters I learn. Maybe I can get that sub-boss Zyklon that my son is so worried about to become my minion ; if I play my cards right I could convince Elan that he's secretly been working for me since the very beginning!"
Also, it was a ploy to save Nale from Malack and keep both working under him. Not that it worked out for either of them at the end.

[Vikenlugaid]

Yeah, she suffers from a severe mixture of PTSD and grief about Xykon's murder spree. That was still a mostly rational decision with the information she had at the moment, though ("certainty of having a world that suck" VS "real possibility of having no world at all" is not an easy choice to make). And, to her credit, she quickly changed plan when exposed to new informations explaining why her plan wouldn't work (big difference with RC, who resorted immediately to murder to protect his worldview)

But Serini believed that information cause Belkar and Haley managed to convince her.
Redcloak didn't believe that information cause, let's be honest, Durkon sucks at convincing someone, he just thought Redcloak was going to believe him just because, even if the informations is "so convenient" that is really suspicious.

Imsgine that Xykon suddenly comes to the Order and tella them that the Snarl doesn't exist ant that he is not evil and just want to open.the gate to live peacefully inside that "world"... Who would believe that?

These are the people who refused resurrection on basis of alignment despite Durkon's god being from an entirely different pantheon and the Order was in contact with (the remnants of) Azure City.

Well, they only tried to resurrect one corpse, and he didn't look like the leader. They should have tried to resurrect Girard.

[Ruck]

Well, they only tried to resurrect one corpse, and he didn't look like the leader. They should have tried to resurrect Girard.

Girard died of old age long before they showed up; that wouldn't have been possible.

[Kardwill]

Girard died of old age long before they showed up; that wouldn't have been possible.

And Girard was provably antagonistic and paranoid about the paladins. A rank-and-file member, who died after the Azure City gate had been destroyed, was a safer bet. Now, would "resurecting them randomly until one of them accepted" have been successful? It would depend on how brainwashed the Girard Family was (my guess? "A lot". Those people were an insular isolated cult reproducing by decieveing and robbing outsiders.)

[Ruck]

And Girard was provably antagonistic and paranoid about the paladins. A rank-and-file member, who died after the Azure City gate had been destroyed, was a safer bet. Now, would "resurecting them randomly until one of them accepted" have been successful? It would depend on how brainwashed the Girard Family was (my guess? "A lot". Those people were an insular isolated cult reproducing by decieveing and robbing outsiders.)

Hmm. I thought Durkon tried more than once, but now I'm less clear after re-reading #843 and #844-- it seems now like he tried once and then Roy decided not to try again with their last diamond dust based on Haley's reasoning. In any case, I think your guess is correct.

[danielxcutter]

That reminds me actually, why was Girard's corpse there? They had like a dozen sorcerers, they probably could have given him a better tomb than a glorified desk drawer.