Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)

[Fleeing Coward]

So either 2 minions or 0 minions(I know that's not possible unless there were 3 minions on mission 2) on that mission. 1 minion will always fail that mission.
Anyone disagree with that statement?

I can now also mechanically prove that either I am or Legato is loyal by sending the same 4 plus Legato or me on the next mission.
The reason minions had to gamble rather than both vote fail is because otherwise, they mechanically clear both me and Legato heading into mission 4.

Troll, I suggest you scry Legato or myself and then we will move from there depending on your result.

If you scry anyone else, I'm calling you my lock minion.

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Also, if Percival knows for certain that there are minions on the mission he claims now, not on mission 5.

[Rofltrollcopter]

Cool, your my lock minion too.

Percival: If you are reading this, do not reveal until the last possible moment. We have a good chance of winning mission four without you revealing. If your hidden, then your one more potential candidate to be Merlin.

[Fleeing Coward]

Thanks for saying we should pass down to Logic, Troll.
My minion team is now Logic, Troll, Axl and Jojolagger.

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Answer me this Troll: do you agree there's 2 or 0 minions on mission 3 since a solo minion will always fail mission 30. If you disagree, show me the reason.

If you agree with my above statement, give me one good reason why we need to pass down to Logic rather than agree to my proposed team of the 4 plus either Legato or Myself (I'll even let everyone else decide which). A team like that ensures victory if there's indeed 0 minions on the team and mechanically clears 1 knight if there were minions on the team and pretty close to clears both.

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Finally, guess who makes the final 3 choosers on mission 5 if mission 4 fails?
Axl, Jojo and Troll...

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One last thing, this is why mission 3 succeeded - the minions worked out that if they both failed it:
Me and Legato gets cleared, forcing Troll to pass the lady to one of us. If he doesn't, he confirms that he's a minion and a third knight in Eloel. If he does, we can scry Eloel or Troll and still have 3 cleared knights by the final mission.

Why did they still accept the mission anyways? Because they knew I was a loyal knight, I publicly said that I believed Eloel to be innocent and Troll to be minion so the alternative was rejecting and letting me pick. I only then had to pick 2 out of 4 loyal knights to end the game and between two bad options, they had to choose the less bad option which was to accept Duck's proposal rather than passing it to me.

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OK, I promise this is my final update - that's why the first proposed team for mission 3 was also so resoundingly rejected. There were 3 minions on that mission so they couldn't possibly accept it.
The only thing I wasn't sure about up until recently was whether the last minion was Tanar or Logic but Troll's rash proposal to pass it to Logic makes me believe that it is more likely Logic than Tanar.

[Rofltrollcopter]

meh, your right that Legato and you are probably on the same team at this point. If you or Legato scry as minions, then we know mission 3 was all loyalists. If one of you is good, things get interesting...


I'm not going to respond to anything else you say until you address the points I laid out that explained why I was good and Eloel is bad.

[Fleeing Coward]

So you're agreeing with me that there's no harm in sending either me or Legato plus the 4 on mission 3 for the 4th mission. Either we win the game right there or one of us gets mechanically proved. That's why I asked you to scry one of us.

[Eloel]

we can scry Eloel or Troll and still have 3 cleared knights by the final mission.

Good luck with that, we'd have both used scry, you can't shoot it back.

[Fleeing Coward]

1. Eloel tried to justify hiding information from the table.

I may have missed it since i read through the thread pretty quickly but where did he do that?

2. I downvoted two missions with bad people on them.

That is actually a mark against you. There's usually 0 reasons not to accept mission 1 where there is 0 information. The fact that you rejected it and is now claiming how that is a good thing makes me suspect you more.

3. From an objective mathematical standpoint, Eloel is more likely to be a minion then me.

Anything other than a 100% mechanical proved villager is open for debate, you been more mathematically likely to be a knight does not preclude you from been a minion

4. I was just on a mission that succeeded.

And I am almost certain that there is 2 minions on that mission since I know I'm innocent and I believe Legato to be too and explained why I believe the mission succeeded already.

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Good luck with that, we'd have both used scry, you can't shoot it back.

Well, my group has been playing with the wrong rules this whole time then (We allowed the final scry to scry anyone since there is no more scries after that)
But Legato could still have scried someone else which would have resulted in either 3 mechanically confirmed knights or 2 mechanically confirmed knights plus a minion.

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Actually, since Troll made it clear he wouldn't be scrying either me or Legato, I'll just propose my team now. If he changes his tune, I'll alter my team but otherwise my proposed team is:

Sir Tristram
Sir Troll
Sir Fidious
Sir Immer
Lady Lexington

I dare anyone to give me one good reason as to why we should reject this team.
With this team we either:
a) Win the game right here if by some strange coincidence, there were 3 minions in mission 2 and a minion or two was crazy enough to accept the last mission ; or
b) Legato will be picking for mission 5 as a mechanically confirmed Knight and I have faith in his ability to choose correctly if it comes down to that.

[Eloel]

I may have missed it since i read through the thread pretty quickly but where did he do that?

People tend to see my confusion on whether to expose information to both sides as evil, the fact that I caved in to the requests probably doesn't bode well for me either, but it had to be done so I would not get falsely identified as a minion. The minions seeing me as definitely loyal (and identifying Troll in case he's Oberon - or giving Oberon information on a minion if he's not Oberon) made everyone happier, apparently. In return, the loyals gained no information except "hey, one of the two is a minion".

[Legato Endless]

I'll need to take a bit of time to reflect on it, but on first look FC's plan seems quite solid frankly. I'm leaning heavily approve.

[Rofltrollcopter]

Heads up folks. I know I said I wasn't go scry anyone out of the group of Axl, Eonas, and Jojo.




I lied.
Legato is a Minion


As F-C explained, he and Legato are on the same team. As unlikely as it was, we hit the four good people in the subset of Logic, Tanar, F-C, myself, Legato, and Duck. We have a guaranteed group that will win mission 4.

Remember when we got to this point in the first game? Our objective now is to preserve Merlin's identity. The minions still have a chance to win this. Do not talk, do not offer analysis, do not get provoked by a minion into responding. Every bit of information helps them deduce Merlin's identity.

Just downvote to Logic, he will run the same mission + someone from mission 2 who is not Eloel.

[Silent_Interim]

I agree with Troll in the light of this information. Worst come to worst, we now have mission 5.

[Fleeing Coward]

Heads up folks. I know I said I wasn't go scry anyone out of the group of Axl, Eonas, and Jojo.

I lied.
Legato is a Minion


As F-C explained, he and Legato are on the same team. As unlikely as it was, we hit the four good people in the subset of Logic, Tanar, F-C, myself, Legato, and Duck. We have a guaranteed group that will win mission 4.

Remember when we got to this point in the first game? Our objective now is to preserve Merlin's identity. The minions still have a chance to win this. Do not talk, do not offer analysis, do not get provoked by a minion into responding. Every bit of information helps them deduce Merlin's identity.

Just downvote to Logic, he will run the same mission + someone from mission 2 who is not Eloel.

And now I got you hook, line and sinker Troll. Explanation incoming.

[Eonas]

Heads up folks. I know I said I wasn't go scry anyone out of the group of Axl, Eonas, and Jojo.




I lied.
Legato is a Minion


As F-C explained, he and Legato are on the same team. As unlikely as it was, we hit the four good people in the subset of Logic, Tanar, F-C, myself, Legato, and Duck. We have a guaranteed group that will win mission 4.

Remember when we got to this point in the first game? Our objective now is to preserve Merlin's identity. The minions still have a chance to win this. Do not talk, do not offer analysis, do not get provoked by a minion into responding. Every bit of information helps them deduce Merlin's identity.

Just downvote to Logic, he will run the same mission + someone from mission 2 who is not Eloel.

Wait, how does that work? Why would you lie about who you'd scry?

Also, "don't talk and don't offer analysis" sounds like a great thing to say if there actually are multiple minions on the team despite everything.

[Fleeing Coward]

There is at least 2 Minions between those 4:
Lord Edward Ruthven
Sir Axl
Sir Myles
Lord of Shallot

Troll claims Sir Galavant is also a minion.

That means there can only mechanically be 1 minion in my proposed team of:
Sir Tristram
Sir Troll
Sir Fidious
Sir Immer
Lady Lexington

if Troll is telling the truth

That means that there is 0 reason now to reject my mission since there needs to be 2 fails to fail the mission and if Troll is telling the truth, there can only be 1 minion in my team so my mission is a guaranteed success.

If the mission fails, it proves Troll is lying as Legato will be mechanically proven to be a loyal knight. That means Eloel is most likely telling the truth and thus a loyal knight and Troll is mechanically proven to be a minion since he lied about Legato.
Legato then also gets a scry which will result in us effectively heading into mission 5 with either 2 confirmed minions and 2 confirmed knights or 3 confirmed knights and a confirmed minion.

Since there is now 0 reason for any loyal knight to reject my mission thanks to Troll, I rest my case.

[Eloel]

FC's team looks reasonable to me, I'll accept that

[Fleeing Coward]

I'm of course accepting this mission.

Minions, feel free to reject and make it even easier for us. My logic is perfect here since I double checked it yesterday in case Troll blunders into scanning me or Legato and then claiming that he got a guilty scan.

[Legato Endless]

Well that answers that question.

I accept this mission.

[axl]

Apologies for being out the last few days. I see that a lot has happened since then. I won't comment on everything but let me just say this regarding FC's proposed team of Tristram/Troll/Fidious/Immer/Lexington.

Right now, I'm leaning towards this being a good team to send for mission 4. If mission 3 was indeed all-loyal, then we win the game, or at least the missions part of it (we just need to pray that the minions can't identify Merlin)

On the other hand, if mission 4 fails, then we can be certain that:
1. Legato is loyal. Therefore,
2. Troll is a minion.

In this worst-case scenario, one positive thing is that, with Legato holding the LotL, he can hopefully use it to find the minion among Tristram/Fidious/Immer/Lexington. If he is successful in minion-hunting, he can propose a team of himself plus the three other loyalists outside Quest2 plus 1 more from Quest2. He just needs to find one loyalist from Quest 2.

I know this may seem to be a lot of pressure for Legato, but seeing how he worked our first game, I have no doubt that he can find the minion among Duck/FC/Logic/SI and identify one loyalist among Axl/Eonas/Jojo/Eloel.

So unless someone comes up with a reasonable argument why I/we shouldn't, I'd be voting to accept this team.

[Duck999]

Remember to PM your accept/fail

[Eloel]

I don't think he officially proposed a team?

[Fleeing Coward]

The team I bolded is my official proposal.
In an ideal world I'd actually go for a different team that I believe could win us the game without a 5th mission but my proposed team is one that gives us the most information.

[Silent_Interim]

I apologise for my earlier behaviour, to FC and others. I had not considered much of the recent logic given. I also was slightly biased in my opinion. I'll accept in a moment. Mechanically, this should now win.

[Fleeing Coward]

I'd be very surprised if the game actually ends on this 4th mission. The only way it'll end here is if Troll was actually telling the truth about Legato been a minion in which case, the minion on mission 3 made a huge error in judgement in succeeding the mission.
However, I'm pretty sure that Troll knows he's been caught out and is now wisely choosing to remain completely silent to not accidentally give away any more information so that's a very long shot.

The reason I proposed the team I did is not because I expect the game to end in mission 4 but because if it does fail as I expect it to, it will give us the most mechnically confirmed information possible heading into mission 5 with a mechnically confirmed leader that I have absolute faith in picking for the deciding mission.

[Eloel]

Gah, FC, stop messing with my head, it has been a long day.

[Fleeing Coward]

I'm not trying to mess with anyone's head here. Everything I said about the current team composition is entirely check-able so if I was wrong, someone would have pointed it out.

This team won't win us the game unless Troll is telling the truth but it's main advantage is that it hedges against Troll lying since if the mission fails, we enter the final mission with multiple mechanically confirmed players and a mechanically confirmed knight as leader.

That's why I expect all loyal knights at least to accept since my stated facts are check-able and I expect even the minions to accept if Troll is lying because if they reject it, all they're doing is giving themselves away.

[Eloel]

Dudes and dudettes, get voting.

[smashbro]

I feel confident that this mission will succeed." Lady Patronia beckons to the new addition to the team to follow as they leave.



Send in your votes guys!


In the mean time, feel free to talk amongst yourselves.



Approved: (7)

Sir Axl (axl)
Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter)
Sir Tristram (Silent_Interim) (Tanar Aerdoth)
Sir Immer (Duck999)
Lady Lexington (Fleeing Coward) (Lex-Kat)
Sir Fidious (Logic)
Lord of Shallot (Eloel)


Rejected: (3)

Lord Edward Ruthven (Eonas)
Sir Myles (jojolagger)
Sir Galavant (Legato Endless)

Quest 1	Quest 2	Quest 3	Quest 4	Quest 5
3	4	4	5 (two fails)	5
Lord Edward Ruthven Sir Axl Sir Myles	Lord Edward Ruthven Sir Axl Sir Myles Lord of Shallot	Sir Tristram Sir Troll Sir Fidious Sir Immer	Sir Tristram Sir Troll Sir Fidious Sir Immer Lady Lexington	--- --- --- --- ---
Success Success Success	Fail Fail Success Success	Success Success Success Success	--- --- --- --- ---	--- --- --- --- ---

			Lady of the Lake
Lord Edward Ruthven	Sir Axl	Sir Myles	Sir Troll	Sir Tristram	Sir Immer	Lady Lexington	Sir Galavant	Sir Fidious	Lord of Shallot
Eonas	Axl	jojolagger	Rofltrollcopter	Tanar Aerdoth	Duck999	Lex-Kat	Legato Endless	Logic	Eloel

[Logic]

With that approval rate, I feel less confidant on the success of this mission.

But, Lady Lexington and Sir Galavant have had opposite votes for what appears to be the first time. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

[Duck999]

With that approval rate, I feel less confidant on the success of this mission.

That or the minions are confident of who Merlin is. I'm not sure what to think of this:
Someone lied
Someone counted and did logistics wrong
or
Something's up

[Eloel]

My first instinct is that this puts Eonas, jojo, Legato and Troll as minions. Troll's try on covering himself by throwing Legato under the bus didn't last long.

Edit:

Wait, that makes no sense either - I don't see why any minion would ever say Yes to this mission if there aren't at least 2 minions in there.