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Thread: "Double Bluff"
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2013-06-21, 02:20 PM (ISO 8601)
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"Double Bluff"
Why is so many people (including Haley in the comics) calling the stone pillar with the gate inside it a "double bluff"? If that gate is real, this looks like a straightforward bluff.
It would be a double bluff if the gate was, indeed, in another pyramid.
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/double_bluff
An action which is intended to be perceived as a bluff, but which is not.Last edited by Ellye; 2013-06-21 at 02:23 PM.
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2013-06-21, 02:24 PM (ISO 8601)
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2013-06-21, 02:26 PM (ISO 8601)
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2013-06-21, 02:40 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
Single bluff: You tell a lie.
Double bluff: You tell the truth, and then claim it was a lie.
In this case, the initial truth is that the pyramid is so well-defended because the Gate is there. Girard never put up a "GATE HERE" sign so it's an implication rather than a statement, but it counts.Originally Posted by The Giant
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2013-06-21, 03:22 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
Yeah, my question and my confusion were due to me believing that people (and Haley) were calling the stone, by itself, a double bluff.
But I see now that it makes sense to call the pyramid as a whole a double bluff, and that this is what Haley and Roy likely meant.Last edited by Ellye; 2013-06-21 at 03:22 PM.
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2013-06-21, 03:44 PM (ISO 8601)
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2013-06-21, 04:13 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
I find it convenient (for the triple bluff theory) that we cannot see inside the gate. We cannot see if the Snarl is there (which is what Girard might assume) or the world which Blackwing saw.
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2013-06-21, 04:32 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
If the entire pyramid was built around protecting this center room, and then the gate wasn't there, that would be a (single) bluff. To point everyone there, and then say it's not there when it actually is? That's a double.
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2013-06-21, 11:24 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
I think it's more a bluff or triple-bluff. A double bluff would be if the gate was in fact in another pyramid. A triple bluff is expecting it to be a double bluff.
Bluff: It's in another pyramid
Double-Bluff: It's in another pyramid (Expect people to think you're lying and waste time trying to find it in this pyramid.)
Triple-Bluff: It's in another pyramid (Expect people to think you are telling a double-bluff and wouldn't be so obvious to let them know it's somewhere else and think it is foolish for Girard to think he could trick you into wasting further time in this pyramid.)
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2013-06-21, 11:32 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
If you have nothing in your hand but you convince your opponents that you have pocket aces, that's a bluff. If you have pocket aces, but you convince your opponents that you're bluffing and have nothing, that's a double bluff.
Girard has pocket aces, and convinced Nale that the entire pyramid was a bluff. That's a double bluff.
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2013-06-21, 11:36 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
From wiki:
double bluff (plural double bluffs)
An action which is intended to be perceived as a bluff, but which is not.Concluded: The Stick Awards II: Second Edition
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2013-06-21, 11:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
The first bluff is not the text on the pyramid; it's the entire pyramid itself. The bluff is, "Hey, look, here's a pyramid filled with traps and illusions, don't you wonder what we're guarding with all this?"
The text on the pyramid, if taken in that context, is not a bluff—it's the "truth" that gets revealed when the bluff has been exposed. In the same way as the message that Girard recorded in the desert was not a bluff; the fake coordinates were. The message was just the reveal that the fake coordinates had been a bluff.
The default assumption is that if you go through a dungeon purporting to guard an artifact, that artifact will be there. When it's not there, then the builder of that dungeon "bluffed" you into exploring it. And when, after making you think you got bluffed in that manner, it turns out it really IS there, then that's a double bluff.
The message is critical because without the message, Nale would be far less likely to think that the Gate simply wasn't there at all. He would just think he hadn't found the right room yet. The main reason he accepts the words on the block is that it's the exact same set-up as the desert message: Here's a bluff, you fell for it, sucks to be you. It relies on the assumption of the target that Girard is likely to pull such a trick, which is a good assumption after you've seen him pull the exact same trick in the desert.Rich Burlew
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2013-06-22, 01:12 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
In short, it's like he's bluffing about a bluff. In that case he's lying about a lie (the lie being the text about the gate)
Ninja'd by the GiantLast edited by Vinsfeld; 2013-06-22 at 01:13 AM. Reason: Ninja'd by the Giant
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2013-06-22, 08:25 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
The so-called double bluff doesn't make any sense to me. Why, when presented with words inscribed on a big pillar from an illusionist, would you simply accept what it said at face value? More importantly, the labor required in getting through all the traps is more likely to make people emotionally invested in believing that something is there -- despite the message that there isn't -- due to the sunk cost fallacy.
In other words, if you've made it that far into the dungeon, you have very little to lose by disregarding what's inscribed on the pillar and continuing your search.
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2013-06-22, 08:32 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
He did it before, why wouldn't he do it again?
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2013-06-22, 08:37 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
What does Girard have to lose by attempting a double bluff?
If he does nothing, there is a giant gate sitting out in the open. (0% success rate at hiding)
If he encases it in a stone he runs the risk of someone hacking at it in frustration. (X% success rate at hiding)
By making a double bluff he gets Y percentage of people to buy the bluff and leave (And in so doing hope that Y is larger than X). He may hope for 100% success rate. He may only expect a 25% success rate. But even the latter is better than a 0% success rate at hiding it.Last edited by Porthos; 2013-06-22 at 08:41 PM.
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2013-06-22, 08:39 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
Well, Nale didn't accept it at face value right away. He had his casters cast Divinations on it, remember?
Roy and Haley are a bit more inclined to think beyond that because they were present when Girard pulled the same trick.
Xykon and Redcloak wouldn't fall for it either because they have the true coordinates of the Gates (something neither the Linear Guild or the Order has at this point).
Also, it could be that Nale is going to come back in the short term with a "Gotcha, morons. Everyone's been spewing that "let the heroes do it for you" stuff that I totally had to get in on it."
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2013-06-22, 08:41 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
Agreed about the sunk cost fallacy. Girard probably knew that this bluff was unlikely to work. However, why not throw it in there anyway? If it would convince even 10% of the folks who might potentially get to it, it'd be worth having. Once you erect the stone it costs nothing further to maintain, and there's something nice about a trick which involve no magic, unlike many of the pyramid defenses.
And from Nale's perspective -- well, Nale is rash, and a doofus, and quick to panic, and he falls into that 10%. So is Belkar, for that matter. But it didn't fool Roy, who has a decent wisdom. Not for a moment. It didn't fool Haley. I don't think it fooled Malack, either. So: yeah, it's not the highest percentage bluff, but that doesn't make it useless.
Edit: ninja'dLast edited by Bird; 2013-06-22 at 08:43 PM.
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2013-06-22, 08:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
There are a couple reasons I disagree with this reasoning.
1. There's a difference between me falsely telling someone I've buried a treasure in the desert, which is easy to do and costs me nothing, and me building an expensive deathtrap guarded by my family that contains nothing.
2. One pyramid is easier to search than an entire desert.
3. As I said before, people who make it that far into the pyramid will be emotionally invested in believing that something is in the pyramid due to the sunk cost fallacy (i.e., "We've sacrificed so much -- there has to be something here!").
4. He's an illusionist. Why take the stone pillar at face value?
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2013-06-22, 08:46 PM (ISO 8601)
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No matter how subtle the wizard, a knife between the shoulder blades will seriously cramp his style - Jhereg Proverb
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2013-06-22, 08:47 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
Like Haley says in this comic, "The message would actually increase the chances of someone finding the gate."
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2013-06-22, 08:48 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
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2013-06-22, 08:50 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
Meh, I just set it down to a verbal slip on Haley's part and left it at that. Our mouths don't always fire off finely crafted verbal perfection, after all.
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2013-06-22, 08:51 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
If you've got all the time in the world, and you're thinking clearly there's no reason to. But: imagine your party is wounded, and disoriented/confused by whatever the Draketooths have thrown at you, and that there are still some defenders running down the hall ready to get you. You might just panic and retreat in a fit of exasperation, giving the Draketooths time to rejigger their defenses.
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2013-06-22, 08:52 PM (ISO 8601)
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2013-06-22, 09:02 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
But Haley could be wrong. She isn't omniscient after all.
Again:
X percent of people would be fooled by a giant block with no writing.
Y percent of people would be fooled by a taunting message on a block.
Is X > Y? Unknowable. Completely and utterly unknowable. Girard is taking a calculated risk that people attempt to discover what is in the rock and fail (like Nale did) or leave completely.
Remember, it was Roy's knowledge of architecture, and not trying to figure out if Girard was lying or not, which sealed the deal.
Either way both X and Y are > 0. Sooner or later you just gots to go with what brought you to the dance. With Girard, that is trickery and misdirection. Thus he chose to go for Y. Which is perfectly in character for him.
After all, Girard isn't omniscient when it comes to what motivates people, either.Last edited by Porthos; 2013-06-22 at 09:03 PM.
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No matter how subtle the wizard, a knife between the shoulder blades will seriously cramp his style - Jhereg Proverb
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2013-06-22, 09:06 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
"Double bluffs work best when your target is so prepared for you to be lying that they never think to question your admission that you're lying."
Nale did question the admission, but he assumed magic would give him an accurate answer, and accepted the lie.Last edited by rodneyAnonymous; 2013-06-22 at 09:11 PM.
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2013-06-22, 09:07 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
That isn't smart, nor is it consistent with what an epic-level Illusionist would do. Refer back to Haley's explanation of shell games.
Why have something in the rock at all? Why not, say, have the gate under the floor instead of in the rock?Last edited by Vaylon; 2013-06-22 at 09:08 PM.
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2013-06-22, 09:11 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
This is the important part. When Nale was confronted with the message the very first thing he did was demand everyone attempt to see if it was real or not.
The only thing he didn't think of doing was hitting it with a stick.
Does that show he is unimaginative and/or over reliant on magic? Sure.
But that just means Nale falls in the Y% of people who will either accept the message at face value or attempt to figure out what is in the rock and fail.Last edited by Porthos; 2013-06-22 at 09:11 PM.
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No matter how subtle the wizard, a knife between the shoulder blades will seriously cramp his style - Jhereg Proverb
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2013-06-22, 09:11 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: "Double Bluff"
She was talking about the message in the desert, not the message on the stone.
The message on the stone can only increase the chances of someone finding the gate if that someone is wandering through the pyramid looking for the gate, but somehow doesn't suspect that it might be inside this huge, heavily guarded block of stone in the exact center of the pyramid. Such people are likely a vanishingly small fraction of the people who make it to the gate room.