Dethy VI: Now with 50% less fat - GAME OVER

[Saposhiente]

Dethy VI

Dethy is a werewolf game of logic, where everyone has a scry and is trying to find the liar.
Taking exactly 5 people, no exceptions, so sign up fast!
Rules:

• The stuff at WW Central
• The game begins in Night Zero, where there are scries but no nightkill
• Day ends when a majority of living players vote to lynch another living player, or after 72 hours, when the lynch will be decided randomly. Not lynching is not an option. You can choose to have your vote not count for the purpose of ending day for the first 48 hours by specifying that it is a deadline vote. After 48 hours, deadline votes will be counted as normal votes.
• Night ends when actions are in, with a deadline of 48 hours. No-killing is not an option; if necessary the kill will be decided randomly.
• Roles are not revealed upon death
• No PMs
• No Cryptography. I don't care if I'm the only one who has tried it.

Roles:
All roles have a scry action at night. The Mafia's goal is to eliminate the Cops, and the Cops' goal is to lynch the Mafia. Cops are not told which Cop they are, only that they are a Cop.

• Mafia: Except on Night Zero, he must nightkill a player every night. His scries determine the exact role of the scried.
• Sane Cop: He scies people accurately
• Insane Cop: He scries people as Innocent when Guilty and as Guilty when Innocent
• Naive Cop: He scries everybody as Innocent
• Paranoid Cop: He scries everybody as Guilty

About the stuff I changed from the previous:
The different system of lynching: Because I wanted to see how it would change the dyamic. It is commonly used on other forums.
No PMs, no role reveal upon death, Cops scrying people as Innocent/Guilty instead of a specific role, Mafia getting a scry: Because I did the math and town had a significant advantage (and it still has one)
Player List:
5/5 players

1. Internet Flea
2. cd4
3. Lex-Kat
4. Khal
5. BobTheFerret

People reserving a spot for Dethy VII:
(no reserving if you're playing in this one)

1. bladescape

[Lex-Kat]

Dethy V

Wait, is this Dethy V or VI? Can I play?

[Khal]

In, if possible.

[BobTheFerret]

In, if I haven't been ninja'd.

[Saposhiente]

Wait, is this Dethy V or VI? Can I play?

What stupid copypasta mistake? I don't see any copypasta mistake >_>

Giving Internet Flea time to confirm.

[bladescape]

I'm signing up for the next one.

[Internet Flea]

I guess I should find out how often I'll need to be on; my internet is rather limited right now.
If I can play effectively in an hour a day, I'll join.

EDIT: That is, I can vote and scry fine, but am I expected to argue strategy throughout the day like the Witchhunt folks?

[Saposhiente]

The level of strategy where you talk throughout the day is the point where you question if the .5% increased chance of winning is worth it. Two people should be able to figure out the town confirmed players, and that's what's important.

[cd4]

I am ready when the rest are. I am quite able to do some analysis for anyone.

[Internet Flea]

The level of strategy where you talk throughout the day is the point where you question if the .5% increased chance of winning is worth it. Two people should be able to figure out the town confirmed players, and that's what's important.

...I'm taking this to mean I can function adequately.

I'm in.

[Saposhiente]

Same drill as last time. If you didn't get a PM, you're a Cop.

Night Zero starts now and ends when all actions are in or after 48 hours

[Internet Flea]

Looping around the list to find player 17 gives me cd4, so that's who I'm scrying.

The rest of you will probably want to build the scry web around that, as it's not changing anytime soon.

[Khal]

Looping around the list to find player 17 gives me cd4, so that's who I'm scrying.

The rest of you will probably want to build the scry web around that, as it's not changing anytime soon.

Scry the person below you, then?

IF->cd4
cd4->Lex-kat
Lex-kat->Khal
Khal->BobTheFerret
BobTheFerret->IF

For reference, if we go with that.

[Saposhiente]

First game phase prods sent to those without actions or posts.

[Saposhiente]

End of Night Zero
Scries happened
Day 1 begins now and ends when it does

[Internet Flea]

cd4 is Guilty.

So either I am Sane and cd4 is the mafia, or some other thing that isn't worth considering because I'm totally Sane.

Totally.

[Lex-Kat]

Khal seems guilty, to me.

[cd4]

Well I scried Lex-kat as Innocent.

[BobTheFerret]

I got a Guilty on Internet Flea.

[Khal]

I'm going to start this post off with an apology, because I'm a moron and was waiting for someone to confirm my idea before scrying. My bad.

However, with the information, we don't lose too much.

Analysis(someone please note if anything here is incorrect)

Starting with Bobtheferret, we have a chain down to Lex-Kat in scries.

For reference, Bobtheferret scryed Internet Flea, Internet Flea scried cd4, cd4 scried Lex-Kat, and Lex-Kat scried Khal. Khal was a complete idiot and sat at home eating cheetoes. Guilty and Innocent used for colors.

From this, we can gather that:
Bobtheferret can be Sane, Insane, Paranoid, or Mafia.
Internet Flea can be Sane, Insane, Paranoid, or Mafia.
cd4 can be Sane, Insane, Naive, or Mafia.
Lex-Kat can be Sane(I'm not mafia), Insane, Paranoid, or Mafia.
Khal can be Sane, Insane, Paranoid, Naive, or Mafia(see above).

From this, we have the rather long chain which follows.

Starting with Bobtheferret in all of these.

If Bobtheferret is sane, then Internet Flea is mafia, cd4 is naive, Lex-Kat is paranoid, and I'm insane.

If Bobtheferret is insane, then Internet Flea is either sane or paranoid, which means that in the case of Internet Flea being sane, cd4 is mafia, but if Internet Flea is paranoid, cd4 can be either sane or naive. Lex-Kat must be mafia, as no other options are possible, and I'm either sane or naive.

If Bobtheferret is paranoid, then Internet Flea can be sane, insane, or mafia.

This branches off into a multitude of possibilities.

If Internet flea is sane, cd4 is mafia, Lex-Kat is insane, and I'm naive.

If Internet Flea is insane, cd4 is either naive or sane, Lex-Kat is either sane or mafia, and I'm either naive or mafia.

If Internet Flea is mafia, then cd4 is either sane or naive, Lex-Kat is insane, and I'm either sane or naive.

If Bobtheferret is mafia, then Internet flea is either insane or paranoid, cd4 is either naive or sane, Lex-kat is either insane or paranoid, and I'm either naive or sane.

Now, I know I'm not mafia(If I was, this would be an incredibly stupid play.) I'm ok with being lynched to prove this, but the problem results that not much information is gained from my lynch, as only 1 line of reasoning closes off.

I'm leaning towards either cd4 or Bobtheferret being mafia, as an early mafia post can result in a 4 guilty or 4 innocent stated scry game, which makes it very, very easy for the mafia to be found out.

[BobTheFerret]

What? No Khal scry? Gaaah. I find his analysis a bit hard to follow as well.

I made us some pretty data to look at... I'm pretty sure this chart is accurate but let me know if it isn't. (I used a program to make it, and I don't think it has any bugs...) This is a list of all of the possibilities for role we haven't ruled out yet.

Spoiler

Show

Dethy VI
Possible Lineups (14)
{table=head]Internet Flea|cd4|Lex-Kat|Khal|BobTheFerret
Mafia|Sane|Insane|Naive|Paranoid
Mafia|Naive|Insane|Sane|Paranoid
Mafia|Naive|Insane|Paranoid|Sane
Mafia|Naive|Paranoid|Insane|Sane
Sane|Mafia|Insane|Naive|Paranoid
Sane|Mafia|Paranoid|Naive|Insane
Insane|Sane|Paranoid|Naive|Mafia
Insane|Naive|Mafia|Sane|Paranoid
Insane|Naive|Sane|Mafia|Paranoid
Insane|Naive|Paranoid|Sane|Mafia
Paranoid|Sane|Insane|Naive|Mafia
Paranoid|Naive|Mafia|Sane|Insane
Paranoid|Naive|Sane|Mafia|Insane
Paranoid|Naive|Insane|Sane|Mafia
[/table]

Hmm. Looks like I'm tied with Internet Flea for most likely to be Mafia, by this data. But then, I'm not Mafia, and I wouldn't be posting this data if I were, so I'm pretty sure the Mafiaman is Internet Flea. However, the data doesn't rule anybody out yet... so Khal should garner a little bit of suspicion for conveniently forgetting to scry.

[Internet Flea]

Well three Guiltys means that either the Mafia is one of us, or the Sane Cop actually found them.

I'm going to believe Khal, as a Mafia claiming he didn't scry anyone probably would have happened before literally every other player revealed their scry result. So assuming Lex-Kat's Insane or Paranoid, that leaves Bob, me and cd4. Bob's Insane or Paranoid because I'm not Mafia, and cd4 scried Lex as Innocent, so in order for all Guilty scries to be from townies I would be Sane, cd4 would be mafia and Khal would be Naive.

Otherwise, one of BobTheFerret, me and Lex-Kat is Mafia. Bob being Mafia means I'm Insane or paranoid, cd4 is Naive, Lex-Kat is Insane or Paranoid, and Khal is Sane.
I'm not Mafia, so I'm ignoring that chain.
Lex-Kat being Mafia means cd4 is Naive, Bob and I are insane or paranoid, and... Khal is Sane.
...

Khal why didn't you scry anybody arghhh!

EDIT: And BobTheFerret's done a chart already. That knocks him down my list a little.

EDIT EDIT: Forgot to ask my question.
Sapo, can we scry dead players, or just the living ones? Can we scry ourselves?

If we can scry dead players, I think everyone should scry whoever gets lynched today. If people can't scry the dead but can scry themselves, I think we should all pick the same target and scry them.
Otherwise, it should probably be the person above you on the list. Except Khal, who still needs to scry Bob.

[Khal]

What? No Khal scry? Gaaah. I find his analysis a bit hard to follow as well.

I made us some pretty data to look at... I'm pretty sure this chart is accurate but let me know if it isn't. (I used a program to make it, and I don't think it has any bugs...) This is a list of all of the possibilities for role we haven't ruled out yet.

Spoiler

Show

Dethy VI
Possible Lineups (14)
{table=head]Internet Flea|cd4|Lex-Kat|Khal|BobTheFerret
Mafia|Sane|Insane|Naive|Paranoid
Mafia|Naive|Insane|Sane|Paranoid
Mafia|Naive|Insane|Paranoid|Sane
Mafia|Naive|Paranoid|Insane|Sane
Sane|Mafia|Insane|Naive|Paranoid
Sane|Mafia|Paranoid|Naive|Insane
Insane|Sane|Paranoid|Naive|Mafia
Insane|Naive|Mafia|Sane|Paranoid
Insane|Naive|Sane|Mafia|Paranoid
Insane|Naive|Paranoid|Sane|Mafia
Paranoid|Sane|Insane|Naive|Mafia
Paranoid|Naive|Mafia|Sane|Insane
Paranoid|Naive|Sane|Mafia|Insane
Paranoid|Naive|Insane|Sane|Mafia
[/table]

Hmm. Looks like I'm tied with Internet Flea for most likely to be Mafia, by this data. But then, I'm not Mafia, and I wouldn't be posting this data if I were, so I'm pretty sure the Mafiaman is Internet Flea. However, the data doesn't rule anybody out yet... so Khal should garner a little bit of suspicion for conveniently forgetting to scry.

That is a far, far better looking way of saying what I was trying to say. I only came up with 1 way for me to be mafia in my data though, so I'll look back over it.

As for internet flea being mafia: Posting scries without an idea of how the other scries are looking seems very, very dangerous, though I'm not sure why yet. Can I grab the code you used, and see if I can simulate it out?

And yes I'm a moron for not scrying x.x Feel free to lynch me, I'm not going to put up a fight for being an idiot.

[Khal]

Except Khal, who still needs to scry Bob.

I don't know if it's best to have 2 people scrying 1 person, and 1 person not getting scried. Seems like an easy mafia kill.

[Internet Flea]

I don't know if it's best to have 2 people scrying 1 person, and 1 person not getting scried. Seems like an easy mafia kill.

We've already scried everyone; now we're just seeing who's results change with their targets.

EDIT: And realistically, we want Mafia to kill Mafia suspects, and we want Mafia to kill people being scried. "Scried known good as guilty" means more than "scried unknown as guilty".

[Lex-Kat]

So, are we killing anyone today? Because I think we should kill Khal, for not going along with his own plan.

[Saposhiente]

Sapo, can we scry dead players, or just the living ones? Can we scry ourselves?

No and No
(Scrying people who die the night you scry them is fine though)

[Internet Flea]

We have to kill someone; it's a rule.

I vote either Bob or Lex-Kat, then Khal can scry the other one tonight, everyone else scries the person above them and hopefully we get enough information to finish the Mafia off tomorrow.

[Khal]

Lex or Bob seem good, though I'm leaning more towards lex. Not voting currently because putting people at 1 vote away from lynch, this early isn't a good thing with this little talking going on.

[Lex-Kat]

I suggest keeping it to either Khal or I. I know I'm a cop, and I was the only one scried innocent. So killing me, gives information. So please, keep the choices right there.