Star Wars: The Acolyte official trailer

[Mechalich]

Palpatine has, at this point, almost complete control over the republic and embedded the Jedi within a massive army that he can turn against them with a single phrase. He has positioned it so that when the Jedi do act against him, he can counterattack with the full force of the new Empire. Even if Anakin sides with Mace, the Jedi will still be outlaws, Order 66 will still be put into place, there will still be an Empire. The win-state for the Jedi Order at this point is not "save the republic", it is "stay alive"

If the Jedi stay alive, they will save the Republic, period. You are absolutely correct that, from a logical, balance-of-power perspective that doesn't make sense, but the Force don't give a **** about any of that, and the Force ultimately gets to decide. Also, if the Jedi stay alive, they almost certainly assassinate Palpatine successfully (if Obi-Wan had gone with Yoda to face him, they might well have). Yes, there would still be a massive war, since there is a huge faction within the Republic that supports Palpatine, but there's also a large opposition faction that doesn't and is simply intimidated into silence and if the Jedi survive that intimidation fails and they join with the Jedi to fight. And the Jedi would ultimately win.

I think the Jedi being presented with an army of slave soldiers and reacting with "okay, cool, I'm a general now" without even looking the gift horse in the mouth is also pretty damning from both a moral and a pragmatic perspective, although I guess it makes sense that an order entirely composed of people taken from their families as young children and trained to be warriors might have a skewed perspective about that sort of thing.

The Jedi did look the gift horse in the mouth, they just didn't look close enough and didn't use the right tools. Notably, they relied heavily on their ability to sense things through the Force. That included evaluating the clones and discovering that they were heroic, valiant, and possessed of deep camaraderie. Everything the Jedi knew to trust told them 'the clones are cool, no worries' (TCW basically comes out and says this straight up in a council meeting at one point). That was a mistake, and a big one to be sure, decisive even, but it's not like the Jedi didn't investigate at all.

Part of the thing here is that because the Jedi had been essentially unchanging with regard to everything for 800 years - because of Master Yoda - Palpatine could study them and predict exactly how they would react to everything. And, because the Jedi had basically convinced themselves the Sith didn't exist anymore, they were almost completely blind to how vulnerable they were to this kind of predictive counter-planning.