Ancestors seemed like the closest fit for a patron to me, but honestly, none of them really jumped out as being that close. A lot of it I think will come down to spell selection. You could focus on things that buff and debuff and just fluff it as manipulating probabilities.

There are a lot of good debuffs that are touch-based and if you wanted to use those as ranged-touch, Gravewalker comes with a nice perk for that. Then you'd be able to do things like Bestow Curse ranged.