Werewolf Classic XII

[Horoar]

Well F***...
That was unexpected.
Looks like his network is legitimised now.

I forgot that we had masons.

[billtodamax]

OKAY.

Stats time.

Table-top gamers claim their d20s "owe" them a 20 when it hasn't rolled one in a while. That is the same fuzzy logic you had that he should have gotten a correct hit by now. Each night his chance is still only around 1 in 4 (for right now... to be accurate its been 26%, 27%, 29%, and 31% for the first four nights, only IF he doesn't scry the night target and scries a villager).

Assuming, for a moment, his percentages correct (which I don't put too much faith in, mind you):

26% chance of scrying a wolf on the first night.

+

74% * 27% chance of scrying a wolf first on the scond night. (chance of missing on day one and of hitting on day two)

+

74% * 73% * 29% chance for first wolf scry on the third. (Chance of missing for the previous two days, plus the wolf hit.

+

74% * 73% * 71% * 31% chance for first wolf scry on the fourth night.

=

73.5% chance.

[/mathnerd]

You can all ignore that if you want.

[Ghanz Nmi]

OKAY.

Stats time.



Assuming, for a moment, his percentages correct (which I don't put too much faith in, mind you):

26% chance of scrying a wolf on the first night.

+

74% * 27% chance of scrying a wolf first on the scond night. (chance of missing on day one and of hitting on day two)

+

74% * 73% * 29% chance for first wolf scry on the third. (Chance of missing for the previous two days, plus the wolf hit.

+

74% * 73% * 71% * 31% chance for first wolf scry on the fourth night.

=

73.5% chance.

[/mathnerd]

You can all ignore that if you want.

Sweet, I didn't have to bust out the numbers myself.

[Horoar]

didn't we work that out a few pages back?
Sure it was the chance of not finding a wolf (26.5%). but hey...

EDIT: And congrats on your re-animation

[Internet Flea]

OKAY.

Stats time.



Assuming, for a moment, his percentages correct (which I don't put too much faith in, mind you):

26% chance of scrying a wolf on the first night.

+

74% * 27% chance of scrying a wolf first on the scond night. (chance of missing on day one and of hitting on day two)

+

74% * 73% * 29% chance for first wolf scry on the third. (Chance of missing for the previous two days, plus the wolf hit.

+

74% * 73% * 71% * 31% chance for first wolf scry on the fourth night.

=

73.5% chance.

[/mathnerd]

You can all ignore that if you want.

Now do it for finding two wolves!

[Horoar]

lostlittlebear, Strategos, The Cyberwolf and (name here) were autolynched.
They will be replaced by Internet Flea, billtodamax, Leta and bruntonspall.
Edit: lostlittlebear is away and therefore not autolynched, I forgot.

I assume the replacements are in that order. Ie. Strategos is replaced by IF etc...

[billtodamax]

You are a funny man IF.

A funny, funny man.

*eyetwitch*

[Alarra]

Stats time.

I took stats....twice. Why am I having such a hard time wrapping my head around this? This isn't a call for you to explain more, just lamenting that I seem to have gotten dumb in my old age.

[Horoar]

I took stats....twice. Why am I having such a hard time wrapping my head around this? This isn't a call for you to explain more, just lamenting that I seem to have gotten dumb in my old age.

It's a problem we all share. Apart form the old-age bit.

[Phase]

So Razovor is legitimized, meaning who's the bad guy now? Imperial Psycho, was it?

[Horoar]

That was the protocol.

[Annon]

OKAY.

Stats time.



Assuming, for a moment, his percentages correct (which I don't put too much faith in, mind you):

26% chance of scrying a wolf on the first night.

+

74% * 27% chance of scrying a wolf first on the scond night. (chance of missing on day one and of hitting on day two)

+

74% * 73% * 29% chance for first wolf scry on the third. (Chance of missing for the previous two days, plus the wolf hit.

+

74% * 73% * 71% * 31% chance for first wolf scry on the fourth night.

=

73.5% chance.

[/mathnerd]

You can all ignore that if you want.

Wait, are you adding those together? Wait...

Oh, I see. You are looking at the union of the individual probabilities of finding a wolf each night, and I was finding the intersect of finding a villager every night (i.e. finding no wolves) and subtracting from one. I think if we were assuming the same number of wolves (I assumed 1/5, and you 1/4) we would have come up with the same answer...

[billtodamax]

Probably, but someone gave me some percentages, so I rolled with them.

[Thufir]

I assume the replacements are in that order. Ie. Strategos is replaced by IF etc...

Indeed, as you will see if you look at the player list.

[TheBritish]

*cough cough* Well... that was... embarassing :)

If he turned out to be a villager, I'd have gone after IP, but still not completely trusted the network yet... but considering he was a Mason... I feel... somewhat stupid and offer my neck to the network :) Sorry fellas :)

[bruntonspall]

I had also totally forgotten that masons were in this game.

Now I find myself hoping that somebody else will get bored and get autolynched and I'll get to rejoin...

[Julian84]

So, of course, no need to remind you all of the bargain.

[TheBritish]

Also, Annon giving Thufir the idea to keep one of the villager network dead makes me suspicious of him all over again :) But that doesn't really matter for today. We all know who we're voting for :)

[Gray Mage]

Also, Annon giving Thufir the idea to keep one of the villager network dead makes me suspicious of him all over again :) But that doesn't really matter for today. We all know who we're voting for :)

Why is it suspicious? If one of the auto-lynchers was a wolf and he gets the role it'd be extremely bad for town, as the wolves would know who is in the network and most likely the seer.

[TheBritish]

Why is it suspicious? If one of the auto-lynchers was a wolf and he gets the role it'd be extremely bad for town, as the wolves would know who is in the network and most likely the seer.

Ah... you know what... I didn't realise that. Please ignore me :) I seem to be doing more harm than good in this game :)

[bruntonspall]

Huh, that actually does make the concept of AutoLynch replacements far more difficult, as Thufir can't possibly know all the networking and PM'ing that is going on, so as the game gets longer, the more likely that one of the dead people was in some way in a network of some form. Hmm

[Annon]

Huh, that actually does make the concept of AutoLynch replacements far more difficult, as Thufir can't possibly know all the networking and PM'ing that is going on, so as the game gets longer, the more likely that one of the dead people was in some way in a network of some form. Hmm

Kinda figured we were on the honor system for that.

Regardless Thufir knows who the Seer has scried and who the masons and wolves are. Beyond that, any information from PMs is really only slightly more privileged than what information you get from the thread, really.

[bruntonspall]

Ok, one last question (because I'm trying not to interfere with the game). In this game, do the werewolves and devil know each other from the start like the masons? How does the voting from the werewolves work, does it have to reach a consensus (i.e. 50%) or is it a case of last wolf to post to Thufir selects the target?

[Helgraf]

Ok, one last question (because I'm trying not to interfere with the game). In this game, do the werewolves and devil know each other from the start like the masons? How does the voting from the werewolves work, does it have to reach a consensus (i.e. 50%) or is it a case of last wolf to post to Thufir selects the target?

Typically the wolves select someone to take the duty of sending the kill PMs, but there isn't a restriction keeping any member of the wolf team from doing so.

It's not a democracy, though there is sometimes some debate before the kill is submitted.

[Horoar]

Bruntonspall is obviously a wolf. ... ... oh wait...

[bruntonspall]

Bruntonspall is obviously a wolf. ... ... oh wait...

One of the reasons I wanted to ask now, rather than once I'm back in the game is so nobody can accuse me of being a wolf since I'm currently a very dead villager.

[Alarra]

Ok, one last question (because I'm trying not to interfere with the game). In this game, do the werewolves and devil know each other from the start like the masons? How does the voting from the werewolves work, does it have to reach a consensus (i.e. 50%) or is it a case of last wolf to post to Thufir selects the target?

Here ya go:

The devil does not know the ordinary wolves.

[Horoar]

So this has turned out to be relatively quite night cycle.

[Rogue Nine]

Typically the wolves select someone to take the duty of sending the kill PMs, but there isn't a restriction keeping any member of the wolf team from doing so.

It's not a democracy, though there is sometimes some debate before the kill is submitted.

So would you consider it a Wolf-agarchy? Wolf-tatorship? Or possibly a Wolf-amentary Republic?

/Thanks to the nerds at Wikipedia for the 'Forms of Government' list.

[Horoar]

So would you consider it a Wolf-agarchy? Wolf-tatorship? Or possibly a Wolf-amentary Republic?

/Thanks to the nerds at Wikipedia for the 'Forms of Government' list.

You forgot the wolfocracy