Phantom of the Opera Werewolf VIII: In Spaaace

[Deathslayer7]

maybe. but perhaps they don't want to claim publicly.

[Fleeing Coward]

maybe. but perhaps they don't want to claim publicly.

They're asking to be baned and they don't want to claim publicly? There is no reason to claim privately unless they're a wolf and they don't want to be caught out.

[Citizen Nij]

Citizen Nij is emphatically pointing at Luizeu for the circumstances of the both RNGs hitting each other. Are you sure you aren't just suspicious that Luizeu isn't casting an OMGUS vote your way?

If it was OMGUS and stated as such, I'd take that as an absolute neutral motivation. It is Day One after all, and lack of any other casus optio would make it the first among equally reasonable choice of votes.

But Luizeu tried to say it was random - well, we know the odds of that being true - and also earlier played the "no D1 lynch" card. With the amount of playing history and analysis available on GITPF alone, how often can a tactic with only two potential motivations (wolf and newbie) be accurately ascribed to the latter? Now they're asking for a free bane, for Night One, without even making a soft claim. How much circumstantial evidence can build up before it's actually substantial evidence?

[Fleeing Coward]

In this case I'm actually inclined to think that Luizeu is absolutely clueless at this game or a very good wolf that's doing his best clueless newbie imitation. He's just making too many silly mistakes.
However there's no reason for him not to claim publicly. This is an open setup and there is no voiders so you don't claim privately unless you're a wolf and afraid of getting counterclaimed.

- - - Updated - - -

Until he responds with a proper claim though, I'm switching to Luizeu. I don't trust anyone who says they'll claim then immediately goes offline and not make themselves open to answer questions.

[Ramsus]

Luizeu, since apparently you don't really want to lynch me, how about you switch you vote to someone else with any chance of them getting lynched instead of the two of us and I'll do the same. Although considering people keep crossing out votes I'm not sure who that would be right now.

Edit: Nvm apparently there was a sudden bandwagon against me out of nowhere so just Luizeu switching doesn't seem like it'll save me.

Murska, considering I've tried to persuade other people (so that's my vote in there too for free) not to lynch you day 1 multiple times do you think maybe you could show some thanks for that and not vote for me?

Deathslayer, seriously why did you switch to me after Luizeu didn't actually make a claim? Are you trying to encourage people do that in games? In that case I'll also claim I have a claim to make and suggest the baner bane whoever they like as a bonus for being less demanding with my vagueness. (Seriously... what?)

Hmmm.... already asked Haruki not to lynch me and he ignored me.

Uh... Sprig and/or Logic, don't suppose I could convince either of you to vote for Luizeu since I already publicly said I don't want to vote for either of you today?

[Luizeu]

Fleeing, well
If theres no help then. I'm the Seer.
And Ramsus, I agree. Who do you suggest?

[Fleeing Coward]

Fair enough, should have just said that from the start. Doing it in private only makes sense in games when the wolves have a way to void you.

[Ramsus]

Oh well. Hmmm. Not me and not anyone claiming Seer? I already said I don't want to vote for Sprig or Logic and I'd feel kinda bad if I went back on that. I'm trying not to vote for FC cuz... meta-reasons. Not Lex since she's only voting for you because I asked her not to vote for FC to avoid problems. Would it be weird to suggest Deathslayer for supporting your vague not-a-claim and hopping onto my wagon which at the time would look like a nice safe choice for a wolf? I dunno the logic there doesn't exactly feel right but it's day 1 and there's no way for any of us to know who would be. So... if not Deathslayer than someone who isn't RPing and has any votes on them?

(My request above to Murska, Sprig, and Logic to vote for someone else still stands btw. Just whoever Luizeu picks I guess. I'm not feeling picky right now for obvious reasons.)

[Luizeu]

How about elenna?

[Ramsus]

I... guess? They don't have any votes on them so far though. If we're picking people I've never played with before (and thus makes me feel a bit bad to vote for them on day 1) Citizen Nij at least has a vote on them. And we know FC is willing to vote for them (although not that he'd be willing to for my sake).

Edit: Also what the heck? Seer two games in a row? I kind of hate you now.

[Fleeing Coward]

I'm against an Elenna lynch since I think that's their first game here. Lynching new players day 1 in their first game without a really good reason is just bad form in my opinion.
If it comes down to it, I'd vote to lynch Ramsus if that's your choice even though I want to avoid it for other meta reasons if possible.

[Citizen Nij]

Either the Seer or the Fool, then. But we can't coin-flip for that on Day One. In that case, I would suggest then that "tonight", the Full Baner protects Luizeu, and the Half-Baner protects the Full Baner. So assuming Phantom's information is honest (Opera Ghost and two associates is three Wolves), and that Wolves play optimally tonight:

If Luizeu is the Seer, we've protected our two biggest assets and gained something for "tomorrow". It's a 1 in 12 that the Half-Baner is night-killed, but if we bane the other way around, we're risking three times as much bane ability at the same odds. Extra win conditions are nice, but there's no point having them if you don't actually win.

If Luizeu is the Fool, the Seer will have gained twice the information. The downfall is that we again run a 1 in 12 of losing them for nothing.

If Luizeu is a Wolf, then one of the Seer and Fool need to claim soon (hopefully the Fool, but we don't know which is which). That gives the other (hopefully the Seer) information on three people after one night. And if the Seer or Fool, claimed or otherwise, does end up being targeted when we protect Luizeu, then we'll find out for sure which is which. The remaining player can lock in their role and be in very good position after only one Day/Night.

[Luizeu]

Im ok with voting for Citzen Nij then

[Fleeing Coward]

There is no half baner, Christine is a day baner.

No other seer should claim unless they're certain that Luizeu is lying. The baner can't protect both of you.

[Ramsus]

Right then, Citizen Nij it is. And not to ignore the guy, how would the half-baner half-bane the baner they don't know who is? Also not really sure I agree the other Seer/Fool should claim as they could be the real Seer and thus be putting themselves out there for the wolves to kill for no good reason as Luizeu is probably fairly safe as the only publicly known role.

Edit: I should double check the rules when I think "wait that's a thing?" rather than assume other people know what they're talking about when they say something I think I might have forgotten about. Especially since I think this is the third game recently I've done so.

Edit 2: Luizeu, as of right now you don't appear to have crossed out your vote for me. (Though maybe you're like me and tend to make your new post and THEN cross out the old one and are just moving a bit slower than me. Either way, don't want to get lynched cuz you forgot to cross it out on accident.)

[Fleeing Coward]

I can get behind Citizen Nij for all those faulty claims.

[Luizeu]

My bad Ramsus.
Who should I scry during the night? Provided I survive this of course.
You can Pm suggestions if you prefer

[Sprig]

Kretorg felt much better, he stretched out his arms and flexed his bulging muscles. He offered thanks to Katrina Laraux and vowed to his God, Kahless 'If I am ever ordered to kill the humans, then Katrina will die a proud warriors death as thanks to her service rendered to me!'

Now that he was better he could take note of the discussion, 'I am a warrior not a diplomat' he thought bitterly to himself. But despite that he slowly started getting accustom to the human speech.

"Suggestion I present to you. Haruki-Kun would make a fine alternative. Dislike suggestions presented so far!"

[Fleeing Coward]

Actually, Haruki-Kun. Just checked and this is Citizen Nij's first game too so I can forgive his mistakes.

[Citizen Nij]

Guess that will teach me to skim the original post or try to make plans while studying. I'm only a backstage redshirt, so can't say I'm any great loss to Town, but it does leave only 11 goodie players on Day Two (or 12 if Baner strikes lucky).

Just gonna point out I did scratch my vote on Luizeu, even though it's 20% that they're lying to avoid lynch. And that Town should be wary of the people who are starting a bandwagon on me, the reasoning will be self-evident, assuming I'm lynched.

[Ramsus]

Um... ok Haruki-kun is fine too. He is voting for me and had plenty of time to change his mind so I don't feel too conflicted about that one.

[Luizeu]

Haruki-kun

[Citizen Nij]

Well, that's four votes for Haruki-kun, so at least one of them must be Town. Though the last one is also the claimed Seer, so the first three could be the Wolves making a bandwagon, as two of them were quick to jump on me as well. But then those two could be Masons, and the other indeterminate.

Spoiler: Trivial meta-game observation

Show

How do people play this game when there's such little information available?! That's coming from someone who is involved (and wins!) regularly in One Night Werewolf. What would people think of running that on the forum, I wonder? To the Central Thread with this idea!

[Sprig]

Well, that's four votes for Haruki-kun, so at least one of them must be Town. Though the last one is also the claimed Seer, so the first three could be the Wolves making a bandwagon, as two of them were quick to jump on me as well. But then those two could be Masons, and the other indeterminate.

All less likely that all us being all villager. Not that I can vouch for FC or Ramsus but it would be an extraordinarily bad wolf play if so.

Spoiler: Trivial meta-game observation

Show

How do people play this game when there's such little information available?! That's coming from someone who is involved (and wins!) regularly in One Night Werewolf. What would people think of running that on the forum, I wonder? To the Central Thread with this idea!

Spoiler: Meta reply

Show

Most day ones are guesses but active discussion and participation increases data for examination on later days. For players that have played with each other, there are patterns and behaviours that we can identify and compare to previous games.

[Citizen Nij]

All less likely that all us being all villager. Not that I can vouch for FC or Ramsus but it would be an extraordinarily bad wolf play if so.

This is why I thought the Masons may be involved. If they're two Town players voting the same way, then it's close to a coin-flip whether the third player is a Wolf. 48% is much better odds than 20%. If the Masons then claim openly, it gives us a good shot at knocking over a Wolf.

But yes, I see the flaw in this plan, never mind... if the Masons claim but the third player is Town, we lose two players and good information after one Day/Night. But it's 1 in 6 for lynching Devil on Day One!

[Fleeing Coward]

It's almost as bad a play for masons to expose themselves this openly as it would be for wolves. Just be glad that you're choosing to start playing forum WW/Mafia around here. Some of the shifts on other forums would make you think everyone is connected

[Lex-Kat]

Okay, well.... If you guys are all going to jump on the Haruki-Wagon, I'm going to go back to my original target, Fleeing Coward. Good luck with that Angel-lynching.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Katrina was happy to have been assistance to Kregor, though this was not a story she ever planned to share with her grand-children, assuming she lived that long.

[Citizen Nij]

Some interesting vote patterns so far, as well.

There is exactly one trio of players who have voted together at least twice.
Collectively, pairs of those players have voted together a total of nine times.
Each pair of those players have voted together on the other exactly once, before switching to other targets.
Only one other pair of players have voted together at least twice - and half of that pair is in the trio.

Now either I'm paranoid and reading too much into inconsequential/circumstantial numbers, or there's a set of three players all voting in remarkably similar ways, and can disavow each other by pointing out their respective votes for each other.

Damn, so little information so far! But so much potential for analysis later! Yeah!

EDIT: also, Ramsus.

[Ramsus]

I love how not a single person voting for me has anything remotely approaching a publicly given reason of any kind. Like usual.

[Citizen Nij]

I love how not a single person voting for me has anything remotely approaching a publicly given reason of any kind. Like usual.

TLDR: countering votes on Haruki-kun.

For me it's the culmination of 1. with the clique voting pattern mentioned earlier in mind, 2. you have the most votes beside Haruki-kun, but 3. there is no reason presented for voting Haruki-kun, yet 4. they have been targeted by the aforementioned clique.