Tactical importance of Jullians flyers?

[Mr White]

So Jullian will probably enter the battle. We know she is under 'subtle' control because Wanda said so. But until we know how subtle this control is, we must assume that Jullian will fight on the side of Ansom.

So how much can Jullians force damage Parsons attack?

I count 6 marshmellow peeps and Jullian herself. I don't know how strong the next dwagon wave will be but I assume that it will be as strong as the current. So this means that Jullian and her 6 peeps against several waves of at least 4 dwagons and a warlord.

The strength of Jullians force remains a mystery to me. On page 12 Jullian, riding a peep, defeated a blue dwagon but were both knocked down by a red dwagon. Neither of the small victories means a lot. Both victories/defeats were the result of being outnumbering/outnumbered.

My guess (please correct me if I'm wrong) is that both flyers are simular in strenght. This would mean that in a straight fight Jullian would be in an advantage, at least against the first wave of dwagons.
However, in light of the speed in which units are killed (on either side), the slightest advantage either side can get will be decisive. Both are unaware of each other, so whoever spots the other first has the best chance to win the engagement.

So assuming Jullian survives her first wave dwagons almost unharmed, It'll be highly doubtfull she'll survive the next wave. As Jullian is unaware of the location of the next wave of dwagons while they know her position.

Thus Jullian can at most, unless extremely lucky, defeat one wave of dwagons. This means a bit more time for Ansom to react and a bitless damage to his siege train. This may prove priceless in the future but will not change much to the result of this first attack.

What's your opinion?

[SteveMB]

So Jullian will probably enter the battle. We know she is under 'subtle' control because Wanda said so. But until we know how subtle this control is, we must assume that Jullian will fight on the side of Ansom.

So how much can Jullians force damage Parsons attack?

Not at all, since the dwagons will presumably be gone by the time they can get back (after Ansom's turn starts). Taking advantage of this window of opportunity (well, that and the fact that Parson needed to get some results before Stanley's patience ran out) is why the attack had to be done now.

[Flakey]

So how much can Jullians force damage Parsons attack?

What's your opinion?

None at all Parsons expects to be gone before the end of his turn. As Jillian said all shes doing is waiting for the start of her turn before she can go to rejoin Prince Ansoms column.

[Vreejack]

And Parson is already leaving. Now he might be able to capture Webinar and Dara on the way back. Or he might just want to avoid them and their archons. Or it might be an opportunity to eliminate the archons--he'll never get another opportunity like that to catch them alone without Jillian. How would three archons do against a stack of dwagons? It might be worth a couple of dwagons just to eliminate them.

Then again, as mercenary forces they may be operating under a time limit anyway. Perhaps they were only hired for a short duration? Charlie's monologue implied that they were purchased for the long haul but since Ansom only wanted them for single job they might might disappear in a couple of turns anyway.

[slayerx]

The strength of Jullians force remains a mystery to me. On page 12 Jullian, riding a peep, defeated a blue dwagon but were both knocked down by a red dwagon. Neither of the small victories means a lot. Both victories/defeats were the result of being outnumbering/outnumbered.

My guess (please correct me if I'm wrong) is that both flyers are simular in strenght. This would mean that in a straight fight Jullian would be in an advantage, at least against the first wave of dwagons.
However, in light of the speed in which units are killed (on either side), the slightest advantage either side can get will be decisive. Both are unaware of each other, so whoever spots the other first has the best chance to win the engagement.

I highly doubt that a gwiffen is as strong as a Dwagon... i mean for one, a gwiffen bite did damage to a dwagon, while a dragon bite croaked a gwiffen... dwagons are considered some of the more powerful units in erfworld, if gwiffens were just as strong than ansom probably wouldn't seen the dwagons as nearly as theatening

Jillian's group is not meant to fight off the waves of Dwagons... she is taking them to provide general air cover, not to fight off a major dwagon attack. If she knew what was happening right now, she would probably want every flyer she could possible get and not take such a small force... ofcourse, the damage she and those gwiffens could do would be better than nothing; at the very least she could make sure Parson suffers some losses

And Parson is already leaving. Now he might be able to capture Webinar and Dara on the way back. Or he might just want to avoid them and their archons. Or it might be an opportunity to eliminate the archons--he'll never get another opportunity like that to catch them alone without Jillian. How would three archons do against a stack of dwagons? It might be worth a couple of dwagons just to eliminate them.

doubtful... Parson plans to have no losses from this small battle... attacking the archons now would put the dwagons at risk, especially since all of dwagons have suffered damage from their fight... also, Jillian isn't going to leave until Ansom's turn starts, so if Parson were to attack them he would be doing so while the gwiffens and jillian were still there

also, i don't think Parson is leaving just yet, he just me callign back this wave to let the next one in... though it could be that this is the last wave we are seeing now,, so he is indeed done with his attack

[factotum]

also, i don't think Parson is leaving just yet, he just me callign back this wave to let the next one in... though it could be that this is the last wave we are seeing now,, so he is indeed done with his attack

Whatever he does, Jillian can't interfere with it until Ansom's turn starts. I'm sure Parson has made very sure that all the "attacking" dwagons will be safe and sound in their defended hex (the one surrounded by the stacks of slow dwagons) by the time that happens. The only forces of Ansom's that can react to the attack are the ones that are in hexes adjacent to the attacking dwagons, and I doubt Jillian is anywhere near that.

[Snaaake]

The way I see it (based on the klog with the tactics), Parson only started his dwagon attack this turn (at dawn): he moved the dwagons into position (croaking bat*21), and started attacking the column with his little warlord cycling system and slower dragons defending a base hex. When he's done with the attacks all his fast dwagons will be wounded and low on movement, and his slow dwagons just low on move (since he had to move the dwagons from Gobwin Knob to the forest area he's staging the attacks from), but still at full health to defend the wounded dwagons during Ansoms turn, if he tries to attack the 7-hex forest the dwagons are holed up in.

Then next comes Ansoms turn, and he does whatever. On Parsons next turn the dwagons all heal (to full), and afterwards, (and I quote) "[the dwagons will] hit the rest of the siege surgically and bring [the dwagons] home." Meaning he does the same as in the current turn, sorta, but reversed: first attack (making sure to save enough move), then take the long flight home. Without any air cover (and with some archers gone as well, thanks to *nom nom nom*), the column may anticipate being attacked again, but can do little or nothing to retaliate, so Parson is free to destroy any siege he still can. What I especially like is that he can, in fact, destroy any ground units he wants to as well if he finishes with the siege, since only archers can retaliate, and he can pick out single units from a stack: he could eg. take out healers (nasty for morale and for the larger battle later) or archers (thus making the dwagons even harder to kill in the future).

If Jillian and/or the Archons (it's been discussed they may be able to teleport) make it to the column during Ansoms upcoming turn, the situation is slightly better for Ansom, but they'd have to be spread either relatively thinly throughout the column or only protect parts of it anyway. So he's screwed, unless he only has very few stacks of siege left anyway, so he can protect them better, but in that case, he's pretty screwed already.

Another thing is, how powerful are the archons? Since it seems the Arkenhammer gives you control of apparently dozens of dwagons (46 are mentioned in klog #6) , and the Arkendish gives you three archons, it's entirely plausible that a single archon can wipe the floor with a stack(8) or more of dwagons (assuming the Arkentools are reasonably similar in power when you're attuned to them). Can't wait to see that fight.

P.S. Based on klog #6, it can also be noted that the current distance from Gobwin Knob to Ansoms column is at least 28 hexes or more, since the "B" dwagons that have less than 56 move (2*28) can't make it to the forest and back in one turn. Similarly, the clearing where Jillian was captured/released is within this back-and-forth range, since she was captured with one back-and-forth flight, and Wanda dropped her off in the same way (I would assume withing slow dwagon range since more fast dwagons is more offensive capability for Parson

P.P.S. THAT is a long post.

[Snaaake]

Whatever he does, Jillian can't interfere with it until Ansom's turn starts. I'm sure Parson has made very sure that all the "attacking" dwagons will be safe and sound in their defended hex (the one surrounded by the stacks of slow dwagons) by the time that happens. The only forces of Ansom's that can react to the attack are the ones that are in hexes adjacent to the attacking dwagons, and I doubt Jillian is anywhere near that.

Jillian originally flew 44 hexes (or maybe a bit less, it's the max move for the Orlies) from Ansoms columns location during the previous day when scouting, just before she croaked the twoll and 3 uncroaked infantry. I think at least several of the gwiffons can make the 44 hexes (plusminus a bit depending which direction the column's been moving the last 2 turns) to the column, and the archons probably as well (teleport), if they decide to go provide air cover.

[Zeku]

Archons are flyers. If Jillian is smart, she can wreak havoc on the weaker ring of defending dragons. (I thought we established that Archons are probably 2-10 times as strong as an individual dragon? If that's not the case, their presence is meaningless.)

[jindra34]

Archons are flyers. If Jillian is smart, she can wreak havoc on the weaker ring of defending dragons.

Jillian Smart? and we have no idea how an Archon matched up against a dwagon but a mob of many dwagons is likely out of their leaguge...

[normalphil]

The risk is that if Ansom's flyers do manage an intercept, a 'winner takes all' between Ansom's and Stanley's flyers is probably not at all in the good guys' interest.

For one, they could lose.

For two, if they lose and any significant number of Dwagons remain, Stanley's forces can just repeat these column raids every turn for the four or so remaining turns until Ansom's forces arive at Gobwin Knob, with impunity.

[jindra34]

The risk is that if Ansom's flyers do manage an intercept, a 'winner takes all' between Ansom's and Stanley's flyers is probably not at all in the good guys' interest.

For one, they could lose.

For two, if they lose and any significant number of Dwagons remain, Stanley's forces can just repeat these column raids every turn for the four or so remaining turns until Ansom's forces arive at Gobwin Knob, with impunity.

HOLD ON THERE! are you saying ansom's forces are the good guy's?

[Mr White]

I forgot about the turnbased style of play. With the pages being so far apart, I lost track of the game rules. Besides it's a style I'm not used to, being a MTW player (the older PC game) which is turned-based at strategy level but real-time at tactical level.

In that light, Jullian can't disrupt the dwagons attack (As some of you pointed out). And if dwagons are stronger than gwiffens, they don't stand a chance attacking the prepared positions of the defending dwagons.

I may be wrong again but the archons are those stewardesses right? I highly doubt they will fly off under Jullian seeing their body language on the last page.

P.S. Are those 6 gwiffens and the archons the only flyers left available to Ansom? I'm not counting Vinnies cambats as they don't put up much of a fight and they aren't expected to.
It was an immense mistake of Ansom not to have taken more flyers with him knowing dwagons are one of Stanleys biggest assets. And if Ansom only brought such a small group of air units, why risk a big part of them on a scouting mission if he had the cambats? Talk about a serious misuse of resources.

[the_tick_rules]

yeah but that's if they know about it in time, plus the archons remain untested.

[Scientivore]

P.S. Are those 6 gwiffens and the archons the only flyers left available to Ansom? I'm not counting Vinnies cambats as they don't put up much of a fight and they aren't expected to.
It was an immense mistake of Ansom not to have taken more flyers with him knowing dwagons are one of Stanleys biggest assets. And if Ansom only brought such a small group of air units, why risk a big part of them on a scouting mission if he had the cambats? Talk about a serious misuse of resources.

I count at least 8 gwiffons, 7 orlies and 5 unipegataurs. Those are the ones that had move left when Ansom got word from Webinar of Jillian's capture; it wasn't a scouting mission -- it was a rescue mission.

[Freederick]

Archons are flyers. If Jillian is smart, she can wreak havoc on the weaker ring of defending dragons. (I thought we established that Archons are probably 2-10 times as strong as an individual dragon? If that's not the case, their presence is meaningless.)

1. IF Jillian is smart. That's a big IF you've got there .

2. Ansom's side doesn't know much about the location of the "dwagon platter of doom" or, indeed, of it's existence. The proper way to attack the skulking dragons would be to saturate the forest with cambat scouts first, then bring in a strike force once the hideout is located. The execution of such a scheme, however, would require a positive answer to 1. above. Jillian's style, to the contrary, appears to closely resemble Leeroy Jenkins' (the WoW one). She is not much on schemes.

I may be wrong again but the archons are those stewardesses right? I highly doubt they will fly off under Jullian seeing their body language on the last page.

3. I couldn't have said it any better. Stewardesses, tee hee.

4. The only point where Jillian's eagerness could interfere with Lord Hamster's plan is on the return leg; she could put a crimp in the fly-by surgical strikes against the column on Stanley's next turn. Note, however, that Hamster has up-to-date info on the distribution of Ansom's forces, so he would be aware of her position before that turn starts. He will likely modify his moves accordingly.

5. Taking into account the disparity of forces, Hamster has nothing to gain by engaging in attrition battles, Dwagons against Archons or any other. The Dwagons are the only effective attack he has. There is no point in wasting them. Even if he can take out all the Archons and Gwiffins, it's still not worth the price of losing half the Dwagons. And Stanley would blow his top.

[Mr White]

I count at least 8 gwiffons, 7 orlies and 5 unipegataurs. Those are the ones that had move left when Ansom got word from Webinar of Jillian's capture; it wasn't a scouting mission -- it was a rescue mission.

Thanks for the head count.

With the scouting mission I was reffering to the mission Jullian was send on when she got captured. And I stand by my point that cambats would've been far better at this scouts role unless they move slower and or not as far as those combat flyers in which case they really suck at their most important task.

P.S. There is no supply train, right? Food and such just materialises in front of the unit as long as its upkeep is being paid, right?

[Freederick]

P.S. There is no supply train, right? Food and such just materialises in front of the unit as long as its upkeep is being paid, right?

I'm afraid so. But I like your way of thinking.

[SteveMB]

Thanks for the head count.

With the scouting mission I was reffering to the mission Jullian was send on when she got captured. And I stand by my point that cambats would've been far better at this scouts role unless they move slower and or not as far as those combat flyers in which case they really suck at their most important task.

It's been established that doombats (Move 22) are much slower than Jillian's gwiffon (Move 52). They're good for "short recon", but not so much at going out to get a look at the main enemy forces.

[Waldgeist]

I think Ansom's big problem is that he has no Lookamancers. This forces him to split his flyers for guarding the column AND long range reconnaissance.

But from his quote in the cast: "If a plan does not plan for problems outside the plan, then it's not a plan at all." I presume that he has some answer to an airstrike against his troops.

On the other hand it might be that "this royalty thing" has made led him to some overestimation of the coalition's chances in this war. Of course, he knew that the dwagons are a threat. But he did not expect them to attack him until he was close to Gobwin Knob. (Does Ansom know about the Tool's Lookamancers?)

I wonder how Ansom would have dealt with the dragon threat once the siege of Gobwin Knob had begun. Is he negotiating other tribes to join their fight, just like the Archons just did (for their "prize", but still, they're in)?

[slayerx]

Archons are flyers. If Jillian is smart, she can wreak havoc on the weaker ring of defending dragons. (I thought we established that Archons are probably 2-10 times as strong as an individual dragon? If that's not the case, their presence is meaningless.)

That's assuming she has the authority to order them to come with her... The last orders they recieved from charlie was to be the escort for all three of the commanders... with Jillian leaving, they may not follow her and stay with the main group... Ansom may be the only one who can give them a direct change of orders

I wonder how Ansom would have dealt with the dragon threat once the siege of Gobwin Knob had begun. Is he negotiating other tribes to join their fight, just like the Archons just did (for their "prize", but still, they're in)?

Ansom was planning on using Jillian and his flyers to fight them... his flyers maybe weaker than the dwagons, but he probably does have them well outnumbered... the main reason the column is hvaing so much trouble right now is because Ansom moved all of his flyers to the head of the column when he found out about Jillian's capture; instead of having them spread out... Parson is obviously attacking the parts of the column that has zero air cover

[jindra34]

Ansom was planning on using Jillian and his flyers to fight them... his flyers maybe weaker than the dwagons, but he probably does have them well outnumbered... the main reason the column is hvaing so much trouble right now is because Ansom moved all of his flyers to the head of the column when he found out about Jillian's capture; instead of having them spread out... Parson is obviously attacking the parts of the column that has zero air cover

Actually he sent the flyers outs to where ever Jillian might be...

[normalphil]

Ansom was planning on using Jillian and his flyers to fight them... his flyers maybe weaker than the dwagons, but he probably does have them well outnumbered... the main reason the column is hvaing so much trouble right now is because Ansom moved all of his flyers to the head of the column when he found out about Jillian's capture; instead of having them spread out... Parson is obviously attacking the parts of the column that has zero air cover

Spread out flyers would be Bat*21 on a theatre-scale, remember Parson is omniscient. He can scrub "Plan B" of making surgical strikes on the siege train for "Plan C" of making surgical strikes on the spead-out, unsupported flyer screen. And then next turn he can go back to Plan B.

[iabervon]

I wonder how Ansom would have dealt with the dragon threat once the siege of Gobwin Knob had begun. Is he negotiating other tribes to join their fight, just like the Archons just did (for their "prize", but still, they're in)?

I think Ansom's assumption was that he'd have a fair fight against the dwagons. That is, on Stanley's turn, dwagons croak some units and get damaged in turn; on Ansom's turn, his remaining units heal, then croak the damaged dwagons and maybe a few more dwagons and get damaged in turn; wash rinse repeat. Plus, non-flyers get to beat on the dwagons on Ansom's turn, because they're probably not going to be in heavy forest (I think the dwagons have to land when they run out of movement; otherwise heavy forest wouldn't matter to the rule in the Stupid Meal). Parson's not playing it that way. Ansom can only hit the dwagon stack ever with flyers or forest-capable units and can never hit the stack that got damaged on Stanley's turn unless they first croak a whole fresh stack.

Ansom was expecting to fight dwagons, but he wasn't expecting to fight them always at a major tactical disadvantage; he was expecting to be at a disadvantage on Stanley's turn and at an advantage on his own turn, and that would make his flyers sufficient to beat the dwagons reliably. Stanley isn't the type to carefully withdraw damaged units to a carefully secured location; he'd keep the dwagons attacking until they were croaked or out of movement (and doomed to be croaked by hordes of marbits on Ansom's turn).

[SteveMB]

I wonder how Ansom would have dealt with the dragon threat once the siege of Gobwin Knob had begun. Is he negotiating other tribes to join their fight, just like the Archons just did (for their "prize", but still, they're in)?

"Shady Elves and Woodsy Elves... I need your archers to cover the siege."

[teratorn]

Dwagons are only a danger to the column when with a warlord, without a warlord they would be forced to fight until they die.

Inside the column, if gwiffons remain at the flanks, supported by archers, they add a lot as protection. They can force dwagons (even with warlords) to engage giving time to the archers to really shoot them (I guess any stack of archers can shoot anything in range). That's why bats are crap (a small bite and they're finished) but facing gwiffons would mean damage from the gwiffons and long exposition to archers. That's dangerous for a stack with a warlord. Parson wouldn't be able to do what he is doing if Ansom had air support.

I don't think Ansom would want Jillian to go into the trees, but just to deploy her forces to stop any organized (that is warlord directed) attack. Of course Jillian would likely go against his wishes.

[Waldgeist]

Inside the column, if gwiffons remain at the flanks, supported by archers, they add a lot as protection. They can force dwagons (even with warlords) to engage giving time to the archers to really shoot them (I guess any stack of archers can shoot anything in range).

Some games have rules for shooting into melee. This includes lowered chances to hit or the possibility to hit your own units.

Furthermore the dwagons would probably attack from great hight (which is a huge advantage in air combat) and might draw the defenders to high up to be in the archeries range.

I think it could still be reduced to a pure flying unit vs. flying unit fight.

[teratorn]

So many questions after 50 pages! Despite Jillian's fight we know very little about air battles.

Some games have rules for shooting into melee. This includes lowered chances to hit or the possibility to hit your own units.

In order to waste warlord units it's not a big deal to shot your own (particularly if your flyer doesn't carry a warlord)..

The height thing is likely not a problem. First, we don't know if by going up you waste move. Second it could be just a question of waiting until they come down and intercept them before they reach a ground-based target. Jillian's battle with the dwagons has shown a huge distance between Blue Dwagon/gwiffon and other dwagons/ORLYs, so I guess the typical hex is quite large and thus a unit can move around a large area outside of their turn.

[Waldgeist]

In order to waste warlord units it's not a big deal to shot your own (particularly if your flyer doesn't carry a warlord)...

I don't know how YOUR allies react if you shoot their units. But I don't think Ansoms' allies will like having theirs shot as collateral damage to kill an uncroaked war lord.

[Etheric]

"Shady Elves and Woodsy Elves... I need your archers to cover the siege."

That was a good spot.

Anyway I don't think there is as much of a problem for Ansom as you might think.

What noone seems to be thinking about is this strategy with the dwagons requires warlords, and all the warlords are uncroaked. The arcenpliars turns uncroaked to dust, so "all" Ansom needs to do is get himself with a decent flying backup in combat with the dwagon stack with the warlords in, turn them to dust and get out. Assuming the combat is not "to the death" in terms of stack vs stack he should be ok with just killing the warlords and leaving most of the other dwagons alone.

So
1/ Find the guarded hex
2/ Kill one stack of the B dwagons exposing the centre hex
3/ Ansom goes in on his flying carpet thing and turns the uncroaked to dust
4/ He runs back to the column to be safe from any counter attack.

I am assuming that with a warlord stack vs warlord stack you can still selectively attack whichever enemy you want.

Julian is going to be invaluable in helping take out the single stack of B dragons I would say, and maybe for the fight at the centre hex too.