More Shmuckers: Can it win the battle?

[Sir Paul]

So far, we know that the Tool has 150,000 shmuckers left from his original 500,000 after summoning Lord Hamster. While we don't know the upkeep costs of his troops, I'm going out on a limb and predict that he still has positive income from his production center (Gobwin Knob) even after summoning Lord Hamster. Lady Firebaugh was willing to spend the entire treasury to purchase one warlord, which indicates to me that the city makes enough money to cover the upkeep of the Tool, 'mancers, troops, and the new overlord.

Now, we know Shmuckers are used for buying services, items, artifacts, spells, and troop upkeep, but does recruitment take Shmuckers? If the Tool had additional Shmuckers, could he train some Dwagons or Gobwins, or do those just take turns? I bring this up because it is apparent that while Gobwin Knob may be limited on Shmuckers at the moment (only 150K left), they have items that are high in monetary value.

The most illustriative example of this is Lord Hamster's Mathemancy Armband. The Cheif Dirtamancer himself put the value of the Armband at 500,000 shmuckers, which could certainly buy many spells, perhaps some more dwagons, a horde of Gobwins, a set of Achrons, and enough left over to take the trolley from Powell and Market to Fisherman's Wharf.

As a wargamer, I'm sure Parson has dice probability ingrained into his memory, so he doesn't really need a watch calculator. Would you give up conveinince of your watch calculator for 500,000 shmuckers, the cost (with support plan) of one of the most expensive spells ever crafted? Does Gobwin Knob have some other items that could be sold and conerted into Shmuckers, which could then be exchanged for the military might necessary to boop the coalition?

[Winged One]

If Parson/Hamster actually does find his mathamantic gauntlet unneccessary, then they would still need to find a buyer who is able to get to Gobwin Knob before Ansom's column does, who isn't hostile to them, and who wouldn't rip them off. Also, he can use it to demonstrate to the Tool if something is a good or bad idea with more credibility than he would otherwise have.

[Hecore]

They'd also have to find a buyer who wouldn't use it against them at some later date or sell it to an opposing party. And seeing how beloved Stanley is I think it would be nearly impossible at this point in the story.

[SteveMB]

As a wargamer, I'm sure Parson has dice probability ingrained into his memory, so he doesn't really need a watch calculator. Would you give up conveinince of your watch calculator for 500,000 shmuckers, the cost (with support plan) of one of the most expensive spells ever crafted? Does Gobwin Knob have some other items that could be sold and conerted into Shmuckers, which could then be exchanged for the military might necessary to boop the coalition?

Parson's knowledge of math doesn't help him if he doesn't know the system on the basic mechanical level of translating the fighting units' Combat and Defense stats into the die rolls needed for a given outcome (which he doesn't). That's evidently a component of Mathamancy, and the armband interface presumably does that.

[Radar]

Parson's knowledge of math doesn't help him if he doesn't know the system on the basic mechanical level of translating the fighting units' Combat and Defense stats into the die rolls needed for a given outcome (which he doesn't). That's evidently a component of Mathamancy, and the armband interface presumably does that.

That and one more thing:
artifacts of such powers should never be sold, unless you want to risk your enemy having it. If you had luck to obtain a rare and powerful artifact, keep it.

[dither]

From the way Sizemore describes it, he's probably actually talking about the watch, not the gauntlet.

I'm with those who say not to sell it: if the item could replace a caster, no matter how much you could get for it, it's priceless. Putting it in someone else's hands is slitting your own throat.

[Leewei]

There's no guarantee that the wristwatch would work properly for anyone other than Parson. Selling it may not even be a real option.

[Sir Paul]

From my understanding of Erfworld, everyone has stats and bonuses that are applied to each other. Since these stats and bonuses are known, Parson could take the time to run through various scenarios to find the underlying math behind predicting outcomes. Perhaps it's offense times bonus + 8, or perhaps defense + bonus + 4, or what ever. In every wargame I've played, I know the probability of the outcome, as does my opponent. I'm sure the war council knew the probablility of success against a stack of wounded dwagons and three uncroaked warlords, simply by virtue of their experience. Parson, given a few hours, a pad of paper, and the math-glove, could learn those underlying formulas and be just as effective without the math-glove.

In Role-playing games, you always find some super-trinket and exchange if for some information or service. What good is Parson's super-trinket if he could do just as good of job without it? Since the Dirtamancer has been hanging out with every mancer in the Magic Kingdom, I bet Euros to Yen that he has several contacts with the Mathamancers, who would probably be able to find a buyer quickly, especially since this is a "rare, powerful, priceless item" as many of you claim.

Right now, I think Parson would be better served by boots on the ground than a convenience. For you Axis and Allies players, if you're Japan, would you rather have tech rolls or troops in Asia? I think the utility gotten from a fist-full of shmuckers is better than something that makes Parson's life easire.

Besides, Ansom has no 'mancers, not many items, and an untuned arkentool. They don't strike me as the bunch of alliances to blow 500,000 shmuckers on some magic-math-glove thing.

EDIT:

There's no guarantee that the wristwatch would work properly for anyone other than Parson. Selling it may not even be a real option.

It worked for the Dirtamancer, didn't it?

[Welf]

So far, we know that the Tool has 150,000 shmuckers left from his original 500,000 after summoning Lord Hamster.

He got 148.000 Schmuckers left. Parson's upkeep cost are "over a thousand schmuckers" and there were 2 turns up to now. So Parson will eventually disappear in 148 days if tool has no source of new schmuckers.

[SteveMB]

He got 148.000 Schmuckers left. Parson's upkeep cost are "over a thousand schmuckers" and there were 2 turns up to now. So Parson will eventually disappear in 148 days if tool has no source of new schmuckers.

That's assuming Gobwin Knob doesn't generate any income, which doesn't seem likely.

[Narkis]

That's assuming Gobwin Knob doesn't generate any income, which doesn't seem likely.

And that it's not paying upkeep on anything else, which is even less likely.

[ChowGuy]

From my understanding of Erfworld, everyone has stats and bonuses that are applied to each other. Since these stats and bonuses are known, Parson could take the time to run through various scenarios to find the underlying math behind predicting outcomes.

That only does not make running the calculations simple. One can from experience get a good feel for what the probabilities of various engagements are based on comparison of raw troop counts, but unless its a simple step function table look-up rule (ie results at 1:3, 1:2 ... 1:1 ... 3:1) then even if the underlying result probabilities for a single unit employing a given attack against another sigle unit are tiivial, the results of many such attacks whether executed in sequence or in parallel are more difficult to predict with accuracy. It involves concepts such as permutations, factorials, binomial (or more complex) distributions. Those are not things to be dismissed as "I can do that in my head" particularly if the goal is to optimally allocate your resources in advance of a battle.

In every wargame I've played, I know the probability of the outcome, as does my opponent.

But do you really? For engagements larger then single units/markers? For multiple engagements over the course of the game? And did you arrive at this magical degree of knowledge even before your first actual game, and never since been surprised at the outcome, or merely put it down to "really good/bad luck." (or the Random Number God "cheating")? And remember we're talking exact numeric probabilities here, not "gut feelings." These are the things that involve real number crunching, especially if you need to choose the best from among a number of alternative actions. If it were trivial, chess programs would be a snap to write, as they need only deal with one unit moving and one possible (immediate) outcome at a time. But they are not, precisely becasue they must take into account what possible subsequent moves that may entail, and chose the best root for one tree from an entire forest of possible long term results.

Just like adding more computing power to a chess program, the mathamancers, and Parson's new bracer, can help make that job doable within a reasonable time for plotting one's turn. And I suspect, just like chess programs and mathamancers, the bracer may also be able to call upon a great deal of "book knowledge" from specific past experience that Parson himself does not yet possess. Otherwise, I see no reason why it should "enhance" the abilities already available in his watch, rather then merely duplicate them.

[DDL]

Plus it doesn't appear to have any buttons (on the exterior surface, at least). So perhaps you have to ask it (like, verbally) "what is the chance of success in a battle involving X and Y" and it works out the answer via magic and calculator watch.

[Leewei]

[The watch] worked for the Dirtamancer, didn't it?

Looking at panel 1, it appears that Sizemore is in fact able to use the watch, which implies it can be used by others of the realm. I was thinking that the battery might run out, or that in the absence of Lord Hamster and his daily upkeep, the item might lose its value. Now that I think about it, I suppose this wouldn't keep him from selling the watch, albeit with the risk of making an enemy if any of that occurs.

[Ultimatum479]

I doubt buying troops is so easy to do. If that were the case, then Charlie wouldn't be able to sell his troops' services: Overlords would just buy troops of their own favorite type, and troops that are completely loyal to them, rather than purchasing Charlie's mercenaries.