Erfworld 69, page 63

[Zeku]

There's a definite pro-dwagon sentiment on the board here, all arguments pointing to the assumed infallibility of Parson's plan. I may have contributed to that a little, as well.

However, some more dwagons are almost certainly going to die. This is a story about characters, not a story about strategy. It's a very fun discussion, but we might as well accept that some non-strategic things will happen, and things aren't just going to keep going perfectly for Stanley. This is not because failure is inevitable, but because PLOT is inevitable.

[ChowGuy]

The question is what Jillian & Company might be sent to search for. To someone who believes Jillian's story, a tunnel entrance doesn't need searching for -- she already knows where a relatively unguarded one is, the same way she knew where she croaked the twoll and skellies. To someone who doesn't find her story credible, there's no point in asking her to search for anything; she might lie about that, too.

One word: TWAP!

A few more words: Jillian may know that she didn't come out a tunnel entrance, but Ansom doesn't. He might (or ought to) know by now that his opponent likes to set traps, possibly more then one, and "allowing" Jillian to escape through the tunnels is a good way to bait one. OK, the Dwagons didn't hit there, but are there ground forces waiting to flank him as well? He doesn't know. Neither does Webinar.

Yet more words: As pointed out, they need to verify a secure corridor for the rest of the column. I don't know where the idea that they're still "four days away" without the siege units came from, but that's not what Ansom says. Anywhere.

What he in fact says here is "the Lofty Elves and Shady Elves arrive in two turns. We'll move forward at that time." Translation: we are holding position here, waiting for more forces, before making the final (slow) climb up the volcano with the siege units." That was (at least) two turns ago, and in no way means that the faster units cannot now be within reach of the base of said volcano (where the tunnels ought to be)

He also says herein two turns, we will rendezvous at the foot of Gobwin Knob." ("we" taken to include siege units) An to "Let the Marbits break off into the tunnels, whether we've joined you or not." That was last turn. Now for that to be meaningful, they (and the troops behind them) have to already be within range to make it a plausible attack.

If Stanley (Parson) manages to destroy the siege, he has to head for the tunnels, and he knows it. Parson knows it as well, and counts on that being the result. Which in turn, is something [Ansom must realize. So, if he extricates himself from the current predicament, where do he and his staff head next? Straight into another trap? Hmmmm....

Actually, the usual theory is that Ansom is trying to reverse the surgical strike tactic by taking out the uncroaked warlords (thus denying Stanley's side the ability to use that method again).

Which theory depends entirely on the assumption that "selective targetting" means she can choose any set of targets, anywhere in the battle zone, and attack them before they can take any action to stop her, and that none of the other targets even be allowed a single "turn" while she takes them out. Even if she is going after them, there are supposed to be "up to two dozen" Dwagons there people (only 19 actually, but still a lot). And none of them ever get to do anything at all except (maybe) the one she actually attacks? I hate to fall back on it as an argument, but I heard of any Wargame, TBS or otherwise, that has that mechanic. It is NOT a reasonable theory, unless there is some [unknown] reason why she can pull such a thing off. Particularly given we know she's already lost one fight, to a much smaller and leaderless group of Dwagons.



Meh. You're probably right though. I do think too much. Or has on more then one occasion been pointed out (with some exasperation) I'm "every GM's fondest dream and worst nightmare - a smart player!" Not "worst nightmare" in the sense of Doug Lochery's "#2 - The rules Lawyer" but more in the sense of #9 - The Sherlock"

The Sherlock

Quote: "So, the Duke was a bit furtive when we asked about the village, eh? Well, he must be the one doing the murders. Therefore there must be a passage in this room allowing him to leave and do his dirty deeds... A-HA! I'm right!"

Description: The Sherlock is a master of deductive logic. After a couple of minutes of careful thought, he has usually cracked the mystery wide open.

Good points: Deep, thought-provoking scenarios really get him involved.

Bad points: That convoluted plot that you're so proud of? It will be busted in the blink of an eye if you aren't careful.

I do try to keep myself in check though. No point in spoiling things for the rest. Much. But by definition this is a speculation thread - 'Spoilers' allowed as long as they're only speculative.

[Scientivore]

I started from 1. the presumption that a Hunt would be for something valuable, vulnerable and hidden (or at least unlocated) and 2. the observed context in which Ansom had just rejected option 2 for not saving the siege. I reasoned inductively backward from there to the conclusion that somehow Jillian and the Archons must be able to make a difference against the 'A' dwagons and their warlords. And, the three uncroaked warlords are the really high leverage targets in that hex.

Some other people have strong opinions about whether the attacker or defender strikes first. All that I could tell was that archers went before dwagons regardless of which one was offense or defense. So, it's plausible to me that maybe nine hard-hitting attackers (one of whom is a 9) could (at least) selectively re-croak three warlords before falling themselves.

[ChowGuy]

So, it's plausible to me that maybe nine hard-hitting attackers could (at least) selectively re-croak three vulnerable targets before falling themselves.

Only if you do assume there are nine "hard-hitting" attackers, who do get to attack first, without worrying about the defenders trying to stop them despite the fact that we have seen Jillian herself, while defending, order her Orlies to "keep those others off my back." But we only know of one hard-hitting attacker who can (with the help of a Gwiffon, take out a Dwagon [leaderless]. You only assume, as do others here, that the Gwiffons individually are enough to do so, or even keep that many at bay, and that the Archons have any overwhelming combat stats at all. I most certainly do not assume the latter, at the very least, as there has been nothing to suggest as much.

Oh yeah, I know. "Defender moves first when it's Jillian, and attacker moves first when it's Jillian, and anyway everything we've see is just "artistic license" to make the battle come out the way it has to." Sorry, I know that wasn't your line, but still...

[benthehater]

Meh. You're probably right though. I do think too much. Or has on more then one occasion been pointed out (with some exasperation) I'm "every GM's fondest dream and worst nightmare - a smart player!" Not "worst nightmare" in the sense of Doug Lochery's "#2 - The rules Lawyer" but more in the sense of #9 - The Sherlock"

I do try to keep myself in check though. No point in spoiling things for the rest. Much. But by definition this is a speculation thread - 'Spoilers' allowed as long as they're only speculative.

*blink blink*

Why are you talking about yourself?

[Scientivore]

You only assume, as do others here, that the Gwiffons individually are enough to do so, or even keep that many at bay, and that the Archons have any overwhelming combat stats at all.

Actually, that was my conclusion. My initial premises were the implications of a "Hunt" and the plot context of Ansom's preference for one.

I used a form of inductive reasoning because there isn't enough explicit evidence available yet. Sound deductive justifications would've been preferable if possible but what I did is not the same as simply assuming.

[Surfing HalfOrc]

Someone brough up that Charlie's Angels were more infiltration units than combat units. Since Ansom knows that standing and fighting as is will result in a thorough beatdown, and that if he brings in Jillian and her team, Stanley will fall back, and continue to harass the siege units, what other options does he have?

Fighting the dwagons head on is no longer a real possibility for Ansom and Co. But an infiltration unit hitting Stanley in his own house?

If Stanley can veil his troops, it makes sense that the Archons can put up their own veil, penetrate Gobwin Knob, and hit Stanley on his own ground. Maybe not enough to defeat the entire standing army of GK, but certianly enough to shake Stanley.

Think that might be enough to cause Stanley to recall the dwagons rather than using his next turn to beat the stuffing out of Ansom?

[sihnfahl]

<snip>Fighting the dwagons head on is no longer a real possibility for Ansom and Co. But an infiltration unit hitting Stanley in his own house? <snip>Think that might be enough to cause Stanley to recall the dwagons rather than using his next turn to beat the stuffing out of Ansom?

Jillian, Webinar and the Archons all agree that they are performing a search.

If infiltration was Ansom's plan, Webinar wouldn't be willing to go out two hexes and come back for a fresher mount, nor let Dora take other mounts and do the same thing in a different direction. He'd make a beeline for GK. When Jillian ordered him to go out two hexes and come back, he'd have said: But that isn't Prince Ansom's plan! He wants us to go with the Archons to GK.

[Surfing HalfOrc]

Jillian, Webinar and the Archons all agree that they are performing a search.

If infiltration was Ansom's plan, Webinar wouldn't be willing to go out two hexes and come back for a fresher mount, nor let Dora take other mounts and do the same thing in a different direction. He'd make a beeline for GK. When Jillian ordered him to go out two hexes and come back, he'd have said: But that isn't Prince Ansom's plan! He wants us to go with the Archons to GK.

No, Webinar is doing a search. As in, "Hey little guy! If you go ask mom for a dollar, we'll take you to the movies!" Then big brother takes off with his girlfriend while his little brother runs back into the house.

Jillian has her own plans, and Webinar is not a part of them. By the time Webinar gets back, it will be too late to go running to mom.

Of course, Jillian had BETTER win, or it is "Disobeying a direct order, during a time of war." I don't know about Erfworld, but the UCMJ takes a mighty dim view of that sort of activity.

[sihnfahl]

No, Webinar is doing a search. As in, "Hey little guy! If you go ask mom for a dollar, we'll take you to the movies!" Then big brother takes off with his girlfriend while his little brother runs back into the house.

Webinar's a level 5 warlord and he has the hat to communicate with. A valuable asset; we saw his strength since he solo'd a spidew (which is presumably a Heavy unit, considering one took out a Cloth Golem on its own). And, of all the commanders Ansom has, who does he send out on a rescue mission for Jillian, knowing dwagons would probably be involved?

Jillian has her own plans, and Webinar is not a part of them. By the time Webinar gets back, it will be too late to go running to mom.

Yes, we all know Jillian has her own agenda.
However, Webinar has the hat. When he gets back and finds Jillian gone, he'll immediately fire off a message to Ansom; Ansom can, in turn, fire a thinkagram off to the Archons to find out what Jillian ordered them to do. If they don't jibe with his original orders, his commands will countermand Jillians...

Of course, Jillian had BETTER win, or it is "Disobeying a direct order, during a time of war." I don't know about Erfworld, but the UCMJ takes a mighty dim view of that sort of activity.

Fighting the dwagons head on is no longer a real possibility for Ansom and Co. But an infiltration unit hitting Stanley in his own house?

So, which is it? Is Jillian on an infiltration mission as ordered by Ansom, or is she trying an infiltration mission on her own to get in tight with Ansom?

[Surfing HalfOrc]

So, which is it? Is Jillian on an infiltration mission as ordered by Ansom, or is she trying an infiltration mission on her own to get in tight with Ansom?

My guess? She's on an infiltration mission on her own. The "That was mean" is the same type of line a girlfriend will tell her boyfriend after they have successfully ditched a pesky younger brother or sister.

As the eldest child, I, of course, would never pull such a tricky, underhanded move on one of my younger siblings. Never.

[sihnfahl]

My guess? She's on an infiltration mission on her own. The "That was mean" is the same type of line a girlfriend will tell her boyfriend after they have successfully ditched a pesky younger brother or sister.

And the Archons?

They're obviously intelligent, self-directed mercenary units. Their loyalty is not to Jillian, but to Ansom. If the orders Jillian gives (infiltrate Gobwin Knob) differs from Ansom's orders (search for the uncroaked warlords)... what do you think their reaction will be?

[jindra34]

And the Archons?

They're obviously intelligent, self-directed mercenary units. Their loyalty is not to Jillian, but to Ansom. If the orders Jillian gives (infiltrate Gobwin Knob) differs from Ansom's orders (search for the uncroaked warlords)... what do you think their reaction will be?

She's not saying infilrtate... she's saying lets look in this direction.

[Surfing HalfOrc]

And the Archons?

They're obviously intelligent, self-directed mercenary units. Their loyalty is not to Jillian, but to Ansom. If the orders Jillian gives (infiltrate Gobwin Knob) differs from Ansom's orders (search for the uncroaked warlords)... what do you think their reaction will be?

What the orders seemed to reinforce is the chain of command Jillian and Webinar fall under. At the moment, Webinar is below Jillian, while the Archons are roughly equivelent (as mercenary units tend to be). As a unit commander Jillian has a lot more leeway than almost any other unit, including even Vinny. Only Ansom seems to have more autonomy.

Jillian is well within her authority to send Webinar on a wild-dwagon chase, while she follows her orders from Ansom. So the question is, what are those orders? Perform a search for dwagons. Protect the column. Use the Archon to the best of their abilities.

There have been many threads on the Archon's powers, but from the TV series (Good Lord! Am I really that old?!?! Sorry, side tracked), the Angels were spies, infiltrators, and preferred to sow hate and discontent from within. They weren't really meant to go toe-to-toe with the bad guys, they were meant to outsmart them, and screw up their plans from within. Jillian can solo a dwagon, so most likely so can the Archons. But it's still four against 19, plus 3 warlords. Kind of a tough fight.

On the other hand, infiltrating GK puts them up against Wanda (tough), Bogroll (Are you kidding me?), Parson (See entry on Bogroll) and Stanley (Meh... Make your own opinion) plus assorted guards (Redshirts).

Them ditching Webinar is like the Angels ditching Bosley. Happened almost every episode. Of course, the Bad Guy of the episode usually kidnapped Bosley, so don't write him out just yet.

"Going to war without Webinar is like going to war without your tuba. All you're leaving behind is a bunch of noisy baggage."

[jindra34]

What the orders seemed to reinforce is the chain of command Jillian and Webinar fall under. At the moment, Webinar is below Jillian, while the Archons are roughly equivelent (as mercenary units tend to be). As a unit commander Jillian has a lot more leeway than almost any other unit, including even Vinny. Only Ansom seems to have more autonomy.

Jillian is well within her authority to send Webinar on a wild-dwagon chase, while she follows her orders from Ansom. So the question is, what are those orders? Perform a search for dwagons. Protect the column. Use the Archon to the best of their abilities.

There have been many threads on the Archon's powers, but from the TV series (Good Lord! Am I really that old?!?! Sorry, side tracked), the Angels were spies, infiltrators, and preferred to sow hate and discontent from within. They weren't really meant to go toe-to-toe with the bad guys, they were meant to outsmart them, and screw up their plans from within. Jillian can solo a dwagon, so most likely so can the Archons. But it's still four against 19, plus 3 warlords. Kind of a tough fight.

On the other hand, infiltrating GK puts them up against Wanda (tough), Bogroll (Are you kidding me?), Parson (See entry on Bogroll) and Stanley (Meh... Make your own opinion) plus assorted guards (Redshirts).

Them ditching Webinar is like the Angels ditching Bosley. Happened almost every episode. Of course, the Bad Guy of the episode usually kidnapped Bosley, so don't write him out just yet.

"Going to war without Webinar is like going to war without your tuba. All you're leaving behind is a bunch of noisy baggage."

Are you suggesting Webinar will walk into the dwagon nest?

[Surfing HalfOrc]

Are you suggesting Webinar will walk into the dwagon nest?

No, I'm suggesting that Webinar will return to find nothing there. Kind of like the pesky little brother from my earlier post coming back outside to find his older brother and the older brother's girlfriend long gone.

What can he do at this point? "MOOOOOMMMMM! Jillian ditched me! It's not fair!"

And that's about it.

[Lombard]

Agreed they'll return to find nothing there... where are you getting these Charlie's Angels comparisons though? Clearly the Archons are supposed to look like stewardesses.

[Surfing HalfOrc]

Agreed they'll return to find nothing there... where are you getting these Charlie's Angels comparisons though? Clearly the Archons are supposed to look like stewardesses.

Archons are a different term for Angels in D&D. The Blue Uniform also implies a connection to the Blue Angles, the Navy's exibition flying unit. The Blue Angels are extremey good pilots, and also had an impressive kill record when they were deployed during (I think) the Vietnam War.

Sort of a double reference...

[Elderac]

The Blue Angels are an aerial demonstration team. While the individual pilots may have flown in Viet Nam or other conflicts, they do not deploy as a unit.

I think Wanda should have a big bead of sweat right now, but then, she is totally confident her spell will work.

[Pepz]

pretty late by now I guess :P but lovely to see a new update! :)

saw the breakdown between the leaders coming, especially with Stanley at the head of them, and Wanda doing whatever she likes, there had to be a moment when they clashed :) let's see if they can fix it tho :)

[Scientivore]

Agreed they'll return to find nothing there... where are you getting these Charlie's Angels comparisons though? Clearly the Archons are supposed to look like stewardesses.

They're Charlie's Archons. I think that they're dressed as blue flight stewardesses as a secondary reference to the Blue Angels.