Convoy VI: Run Bandit, Run

[Kish]

But when I go back through the Kish posts, these are the ones I found about AV. Am I missing something?

I explained why I wasn't voting for kgato503 literally right after something you quoted, so...I'd say yes, but it's apparent that you're, instead, seeing my explanation and dismissing it as too unconvincing to be relevant.

"Haven't pointed at anyone who wasn't town except when following the seer" is something you could say about most of the players in the game. Why is it more suspicious for me than for--Duck, say?

Regardless, kgato503 is the most suspicious person to me today (though if the wagon on me takes off and I die today, I hope you all look at Rain Dragon tomorrow).

Requilac, whether one of the truckers who died was the Snowman and Lex-Kat didn't mention that or not, there's no value in fixating on an assumption you made about the role like this.

[Requilac]

Requilac, whether one of the truckers who died was the Snowman and Lex-Kat didn't mention that or not, there's no value in fixating on an assumption you made about the role like this.

This is a game of assumptions Kish, some have voted for you because of an assumption and you have voted for Kgato because of an assumption. Mine I believe to be founded on the empirical evidence which I have observed. I am not merely suspicious of Extrail, I have indeed found out that he either has lied to us or he was somehow unaware of his role (the latter being extremely unlikely). Why would Lex-cat refuse to tell someone their role? there isn't any sort of good reason for that unless in the most niche cases. And Lex-cat herself mentioned that the Snowman's death would have great impact on the story, so I doubt she would forget about including that, especially considering that she would have become more careful after witnessing her mistake in the first game. It seems as if the most likely scenario is that Extrail has lied to us. Can I say for certain that Extrail has lied? No I cannot, but risks must be taken now. I have voted for Extrail on fact based information and probability, not hunches and my personal feelings, and thus I shall trust in my decision unless strong evidence proves its foolishness.

[Cuthalion]

I'm personally in agreement with Req about Extrail on the mechanical end of things.

[Extrail]

Rationale: I was told i was a trucker by lex-kat. I wasn't told what the snowman was. So i'm confused about who the snow-man is. So i operated under the assumption that i'm a trucker. So kill me if you must, because i highly doubt i'll be more useful alive, but i'm really confused right now. Heck if my death flag says i'm the snowman or it allows her to explain what the snow-man is absolutely fantastic.

I am a trucker. I've been told i was a trucker, and given no special powers. So as far as i'm concerned I'm a trucker. But that also means something must be really wrong. My only hypothesis is that the snow-man isn't shown up as the snow-man at death, or I'm secretly a role with no special powers. Both of which are equally likely for what i currently know. Of course I realize neither one seems likely to anyone else, so I'm immediately suspected as a wolf. I understand that, and why i actually asked lex-kat what was happening. Which she wasn't too helpful.

And I'll vote for Kgato for now.

[Rain Dragon]

I explained why I wasn't voting for kgato503 literally right after something you quoted, so...I'd say yes, but it's apparent that you're, instead, seeing my explanation and dismissing it as too unconvincing to be relevant.

"Haven't pointed at anyone who wasn't town except when following the seer" is something you could say about most of the players in the game. Why is it more suspicious for me than for--Duck, say?

I meant to point out not that you weren't voting for Kgato, but that you initially voted for AV because of just a feeling then kept stating AV got more sus but not why. I am not saying you never justified not voting for kgato, I was referring to the AV stuff.

This was meant to be in addition to other stuff, not conclusive evidence on its own. I was in fact looking at Duck too who I have a slight wolf lean on when I saw the odd posts.

[Kish]

Oh, I see. I suspected AV more that I had previously because of self-voting, acting overtly aggravated at having a wagon on him (in my prior observation he usually stayed more detached when he was town, even town who was about to die), and tunneling on Xihirli, who turned out to be town, for reasons I didn't consider compelling.

[Duck999]

I'll vote for Kish. I was suspicious yesterday, and nothing has been done to alleviate my suspicions. Someone who's keeping track? How many truckers do we have left, because that could be important information that I lost track of long ago.

[Requilac]

There are by my count 5 truckers and 3 bears left, +1 neutral hooper.

[Rain Dragon]

I can't respond too much right now, but I will later in the day.
Just quickly...

Rationale: I was told i was a trucker by lex-kat. I wasn't told what the snowman was. So i'm confused about who the snow-man is. So i operated under the assumption that i'm a trucker. So kill me if you must, because i highly doubt i'll be more useful alive, but i'm really confused right now. Heck if my death flag says i'm the snowman or it allows her to explain what the snow-man is absolutely fantastic.

I am a trucker. I've been told i was a trucker, and given no special powers. So as far as i'm concerned I'm a trucker. But that also means something must be really wrong. My only hypothesis is that the snow-man isn't shown up as the snow-man at death, or I'm secretly a role with no special powers. Both of which are equally likely for what i currently know. Of course I realize neither one seems likely to anyone else, so I'm immediately suspected as a wolf. I understand that, and why i actually asked lex-kat what was happening. Which she wasn't too helpful.

And I'll vote for Kgato for now.

So, this is a pretty clear vanilla claim.

Also, tbh the confusion seems genuine to me but I'm not so sure about the vote.
Why Kgato?
You agree that the no joking stance earlier is wolfy?
I'm fairly sure I haven't seen other arguments for the Kgato wagon.

There are by my count 5 truckers and 3 bears left, +1 neutral hooper.

Wait, so if we lynch a townie and the wolves kill a townie and not the neutral we're done.
So this is potentially lylo, right?

[Requilac]

Now that I come to think about it, why are you all voting for Kgato? I don’t recall anyone calling him out on acting suspicious. May I ask why some of you cast your vote for him? for the sake of maximizing information and all that.

Wait, so if we lynch a townie and the wolves kill a townie and not the neutral we're done.
So this is potentially lylo, right?

What is a lylo?

[Kish]

Could you confirm or deny that, Lex-Kat? Are we at LYLO?

[Requilac]

Could you confirm or deny that, Lex-Kat? Are we at LYLO?

Keep in mind that the baner is still active and could possibly protect the night kill target, so it’s not a pure LYLO scenario unless we accidentally lynch the baner. The odds of the baner guessing correctly are abysmal, but since it is possible, it can’t be LYLO.

[Rain Dragon]

What is a lylo?

It stands for lynch or lose.
It's a game state where if town mislynches town will lose.

When the number of town and wolves are equal or the wolves outnumber town, the wolves can gain just control the lynch and kill the remaining town so usually that's a wolf win.

I just realised it's kind of not a lylo because if the baner correctly banes the wolves' target we're also still ok and if we lynch the neutral then after the night if the baner doesn't bane correctly it's still 4 town 3 wolves.

But it's really close.

If we lynch a townie and the wolves know who the neutral is, it's all down to the baner, right?

EDIT - Oh, it seems like you found it yourself. =p

[Ramsus]

Looking things over, I think I'm going to vote for kgato503.

[Lex-Kat]

Could you confirm or deny that, Lex-Kat? Are we at LYLO?

Not LyLo. Unless I somehow miscounted, there are currently 9 players. You know how many "devil/wolves" there are, and how many are dead. So you should be able to tally how many are left. Hint: It's more than 1, less than 4. Depending on how well the Baner Bane's, and who you lynch today, you have at least one more day after this.

Is that giving away too much?

EDIT: Oops! I forgot about Hooper. So yeah, it could be LyLo. Except that there will definitely be a Night Phase.
2^nd Edit: I've decided, out of the kindness of my heart, to take a little pressure off. Just a little.

1. The Snowman doesn't know they are the Snowman.
2. There is no Hooper. He was cut before the game began.

Carry on.

[Requilac]

Edit: [/B]I've decided, out of the kindness of my heart, to take a little pressure off. Just a little.

1. The Snowman doesn't know they are the Snowman.
2. There is no Hooper. He was cut before the game began.

Carry on.[/COLOR]

Well, my arguments against Extrail have gone to dust then. I will have to put the pressure on Kish as he already has a bandwagon on him and I still don’t see the reason for lynching Kgato. Nobody really explained why they where voting for Kgato now that I come to think of it (or if someone did explain their rationale I completely forgot and can’t find the post).

[Rain Dragon]

Well, my arguments against Extrail have gone to dust then. I will have to put the pressure on Kish as he already has a bandwagon on him and I still don’t see the reason for lynching Kgato. Nobody really explained why they where voting for Kgato now that I come to think of it (or if someone did explain their rationale I completely forgot and can’t find the post).

I can help; I quoted one last page.
Today, Ramsus and Extrail haven't explained why Kgato and not an alternative.

...kgato503 looks exceptionally suspicious to me on further thought; every time I've seen a player be all, "no jokes, this game is serious business!" they've been a wolf trying too hard to look towny.

[Requilac]

Ah yes I see. To me I didn’t really see Kgato’s “serious” comment as wolfy at all, but judging by Kish’s explanation he is finding that suspicious because of his experience on such matters which I lack. I still think that’s kind of a weak reason to lynch someone, but then again, I am a newb so perhaps I don’t recognize the full implication of what he said. Still keeping my vote though.

[Kish]

You're saying you think it's a weaker reason to lynch someone than "based on an assumption about the Snowman which has subsequently been explicitly refuted by the narrator, Extrail must be lying"?

I have no particular brief for Extrail--they've talked so little I can't tell whether they're likely to be a wolf or not (which is itself mildly suspicious)--but what's your reason for keeping your vote? Because as far as I can tell, it amounts to not taking in anything contradicting your initial assumption.

[Requilac]

You're saying you think it's a weaker reason to lynch someone than "based on an assumption about the Snowman which has subsequently been explicitly refuted by the narrator, Extrail must be lying"?

I have no particular brief for Extrail--they've talked so little I can't tell whether they're likely to be a wolf or not (which is itself mildly suspicious)--but what's your reason for keeping your vote? Because as far as I can tell, it amounts to not taking in anything contradicting your initial assumption.

I don’t believe I understand what you are saying. I did change my vote from Extrail to you. Did you miss that post or am I missing something?

[Kish]

Ah, I did miss that post.

Carry on.

[Extrail]

I'm terrible at seeing who's suspicious but a gut judgement makes me think Kgato is a wolf. So I voted for him atm to put pressure on him to see if I can learn more info about him if he feels he might die. That's how this game works right? Still completely a newb so my rationale is going to be a bit weak.

Kgato? any rationale why we shouldn't lynch you?

9 people left.

3 (wolves) smokeys.
Sheriff T. Buford
Undercover Trucker
Deputy Enos Strate

Honestly We need to kill the devil if we're going to win as the truckers. Sheriff T. Buford, and wait one second how are the smokeys killing people?

So 6 people left. on the trucker side. Mr. B and hot pants 2 masons are dead, and 3 truckers dead. So
So the remaining roles on our side is
The Bandit(Baner)
Sugar Bear, and Little Beaver 2 masons lets hope they found other people to join their network.
Lisette(Fool)
1 trucker alive and the snowman?

That's the role count right now. And I have to ask again how are the smokeys killing people?

[Kish]

The wolves in Werewolf normally have an automatic night kill. There's no reason to think it's different in this game.

I don't think Extrail is a wolf. He stuck to claiming to be a vanilla Trucker even before the narrator explained why that was actually a plausible claim; someone who's lying would choose a lie that looked plausible from the information he had at the time. Extrail currently looks the most towny to me of anyone.

[Requilac]

9 people left.

3 (wolves) smokeys.
Sheriff T. Buford
Undercover Trucker
Deputy Enos Strate

Honestly We need to kill the devil if we're going to win as the truckers. Sheriff T. Buford...

So 6 people left. on the trucker side. Mr. B and hot pants 2 masons are dead, and 3 truckers dead. So
So the remaining roles on our side is
The Bandit(Baner)
Sugar Bear, and Little Beaver 2 masons lets hope they found other people to join their network.
Lisette(Fool)
1 trucker alive and the snowman?

That's the role count right now.

Yes that appears to be accurate to me.

And I have to ask again how are the smokeys killing people?

Every time the night phase occurs all of the bears vote on one trucker that they want to kill and the person who gets the most votes is knocked out of the game by the end of the night phase (unless the baner protects them that is).

[Logic]

Everyone but me has cast a vote. By my count we have:
Kish - 4 - (Rain Dragon, Kgato, Duck, Requilac)
Extrail - 1 - (Requilac, Cuthalion)
Kgato - 3 - (Kish, Extrail, Ramsus)

Cuthalion's vote is from prior to the narrator reveal about the Hooper, and probably why he is on Extrail instead of one of our other top candidates.
But what tips it for me is the following post by Kgato:

Kish

Rain Dragon makes some good points, and that coupled with my already aroused suspicion makes Kish a good lynch prospect for me. They have been doing a fairly good job of flying under the radar for a lot of the game, so I don't really have a lot to add.

This is demonstably false. Kish has been posting with far more frequency than all but myself, Requilac, and Xihirli.

But you, Kgato, are above only 3 living players: Extrail, Duck, and Cuth.

[Requilac]

Darn it, it seems highly likely that Cuthalion will switch his vote to Kgato and have him strung up, and I can’t allow that to happen. And I can’t allow it to happen because Kgato is Sugar Bear (a mason). Please don’t vote for Kgato or else you will be lynching a trucker. I know all of this because I am Little Beaver (a mason) and have been communicating with him for the entirety of the game. If you lynch a trucker today, I doubt we will make it through tomorrow.

[Extrail]

Well. I'm going to change my vote to Kish then. Sorry masons. Didn't know

[Kish]

Okay then. Not kgato503, not Requilac, not Extrail for the reasons I just explained...

Looking back over old posts, I'm going to say this looks suspicious, conspicuously flaunting how obviously towny the speaker is. So, Cuthalion.

[kgato503]

This is demonstably false. Kish has been posting with far more frequency than all but myself, Requilac, and Xihirli.

I meant that Kish hadn't managed to draw a lot of negative attention, especially compared to a number of other players (I was not referencing post numbers there).

And thank you Requilac. Yes, I am a Mason, who happens to have limited internet access right now.

[Rain Dragon]

I'm terrible at seeing who's suspicious but a gut judgement makes me think Kgato is a wolf. So I voted for him atm to put pressure on him to see if I can learn more info about him if he feels he might die. That's how this game works right? Still completely a newb so my rationale is going to be a bit weak.

Kgato? any rationale why we shouldn't lynch you?

9 people left.

3 (wolves) smokeys.
Sheriff T. Buford
Undercover Trucker
Deputy Enos Strate

Honestly We need to kill the devil if we're going to win as the truckers. Sheriff T. Buford, and wait one second how are the smokeys killing people?

So 6 people left. on the trucker side. Mr. B and hot pants 2 masons are dead, and 3 truckers dead. So
So the remaining roles on our side is
The Bandit(Baner)
Sugar Bear, and Little Beaver 2 masons lets hope they found other people to join their network.
Lisette(Fool)
1 trucker alive and the snowman?

That's the role count right now. And I have to ask again how are the smokeys killing people?

Yeah, that's a strategy that works in this game (at least, as far as I can tell).
It works better if you explain you're voting for them for pressure (and if you have them for answers to xyz or opinions on abc) because it can spark discussion from them and/or others and if it's the same as other peoples' reasoning well, one voice is easier to go unnoticed than several.

Your role count looks right to me. With the masons reveal, I can add them to the tally I was keeping... (There was a name I didn't colour so there could be other mistakes. Was it a useful tally for anyone else to look at?)

Okay then. Not kgato503, not Requilac, not Extrail for the reasons I just explained...

Looking back over old posts, I'm going to say this looks suspicious, conspicuously flaunting how obviously towny the speaker is. So, Cuthalion.

I've been very hesitant in town reads because of this sort of sentiment, funny enough.
It seems to me that people across various forums are split on whether saying someone looks towny is good for town or bad for town. I personally think it generates more discussion for us and from a wolf's PoV if we just omit all 'this person's towny' or 'this response is towny' then they can just remove people who are sus and look at who people are more or less never voting for and get more or less the same thing anyway? Better to put towny posts out into the open so people can agree/disagree and we can figure something out from that.

I'm not very sure about Cuth myself, but I'm hesitant to change my vote rn because of the alpha and I'm not convinced he's more wolfy than other players (Ramsus and Duck). If the lead wagon is the alpha, Kgato was the first to reach the two votes (tying with Cuth if I voted for him) and would get lynched which puts us in a bit of a pickle (next day, worst case scenario is we have 4 town 3 wolves and know the alpha). It's avoidable, so I'm able to check regularly until EoD in case we can avoid it.

I meant that Kish hadn't managed to draw a lot of negative attention, especially compared to a number of other players (I was not referencing post numbers there).

And thank you Requilac. Yes, I am a Mason, who happens to have limited internet access right now.

I had the impression 'flying under the radar' meant this sort of thing but quite deliberately. So, contributing to discussion enough that people don't think you're lurking (low post count) and think you're working with them but not enough to really stand out by being more outspoken.

Ah, I hope your internet woes aren't too annoying/stressful/lamebad!