Parson's lucky boop up, and the road to victory

[The Anti Hero]

At first glance, things look bad for team Parson. His dwagon nest is getting the stuffing kicked out of it and now that Vinnie and Ansom have joined the fight is pretty much assured that the rest of the dwagons are dead. However, in this incredible disaster, Parson may have just made the move that's going to win him the war.

Ansom tends to "conserve and protect the units under his command" and that makes him "pretty reckless" with his own life. In the words of Jillian, "He needs saving sometimes" Right now we have a classic example of Ansom's recklessness at work. Even though it was his plan to send Jillian on the hunt and even though she had a 61% chance of completely knocking out Parson's dwagons, he joined the fight. And while admittedly yes, he may have saved Jillian by entering when he did, by no means did he save the fight. Which really does bring me to my point.

Ansom is the alliance's chief in command, and he seems to be a fairly capable leader. Vinnie is a straight man that watches out for Ansom's vices. Jillian is a competent fighter, and the archon's are arguably incredibly strong. By the end of this turn they're all going to be in the same hex, at the very least somewhat depleted from knocking down a nest full of half dead dwagons (How much damage the dwagons are going to incure upon them is arguable. Even though it looks like the dwagons aren't even touching them, remember that when the dwagons raided the column it looked like the dwagons didn't get too hurt). The crux of the issue is that the alliances "rock" so to speak is going to be sitting over a lake after finishing a fight, without any move left to run away. There are 24 completely unhurt dwagons with full move sitting just a few hexs away from them. These dwagons could potentially tear through Ansom, Vinnie, and Jillian, capture the leadership of the alliance, kill the archons, and above all, steal the arkenpilers. This would lead to a nice advancement to the plot. Wanda could beat up Jillian for betraying her, Parson could wreak havoc on the alliance since it lost its leadership, and Stanley could do... whatever Stanley does.

Of course, this might not happen. The leadership may have the move nessesary to run away. The leadership bonuses of Ansom and the power of the archons might be to large to overcome. Hell, Stanley might not want to risk losing any more dwagons. The important thing to note is that there is a chance that this could be Parson's chance to win the war, or at the very least turn the tide.

[Querzis]

Jillian, the Archons and the birds had enough move to get to the colum. Vinny and Ansom just have to mount a bird and they'll get to the colum...thats all I had to say.

[Tirian]

Looks like Ansom can already engage flying units, what with his rocketcycle and all.

[the_tick_rules]

i'd say parson did good. even with the potential loss of the dragon unit he still wiped out a alot of siege engines.

[SteveMB]

Jillian, the Archons and the birds had enough move to get to the colum. Vinny and Ansom just have to mount a bird and they'll get to the column.

If they survive -- we've seen one get hit with a flame blast, and there are still quite a few dwagons to go....

[Begle1]

What it comes down to now is whether or not Parson uses his dragons next turn to attack the rest of the siege, or whether or not he uses them to attack Ansom and all the fliers. Right?

[sihnfahl]

What it comes down to now is whether or not Parson uses his dragons next turn to attack the rest of the siege, or whether or not he uses them to attack Ansom and all the fliers. Right?

It took all of Parson's strongest dwagons, using hit and run attacks, to take out 40% of Ansom's siege engines - and it cost them dearly.

Parson's now down basically half of his dwagon force that he sent out and, from the looks of things, will only be capable of doing hit and run attacks if he sacrifices a dwagon to get a warlord out to the dwagon fort.

He might get another large chunk of siege, but not all.

Ansom, Vinnie and Jillian are tempting targets, but they likely have the move to get back to the gump hex and make themselves even less of a tempting target for Parson. Vinnie gave their chances as even with ALL the dwagons still intact; Parson just lost a good chunk of them at a cost of fewer units on Ansom's side. (19 dwagons and 3 warlords for 4 gwiffons, the way this fight's turning out...)

[SteveMB]

It took all of Parson's strongest dwagons, using hit and run attacks, to take out 40% of Ansom's siege engines - and it cost them dearly.

Parson's now down basically half of his dwagon force that he sent out and, from the looks of things, will only be capable of doing hit and run attacks if he sacrifices a dwagon to get a warlord out to the dwagon fort.

Unless he has at least one dwagon in reserve back at GK (possible, perhaps even probable, but not established as fact), that'll probably take more than one turn. That would give Ansom time to redeploy his air cover.

Ansom, Vinnie and Jillian are tempting targets, but they likely have the move to get back to the gump hex and make themselves even less of a tempting target for Parson. Vinnie gave their chances as even with ALL the dwagons still intact; Parson just lost a good chunk of them at a cost of fewer units on Ansom's side. (19 dwagons and 3 warlords for 4 gwiffons, the way this fight's turning out...)

If they lose the gwiffons (and if they either lose the Archons or the Archons can't carry them), they can't get back to the gump hex. If Ansom and Vinny have three move left now, then they had six move left when they were in the middle of the dwagon ring. If so, Vinny wouldn't have suggested punching through the six-dwagon hex to get back to the column -- at worst, they could get there by punching through a four-dwagon hex and moving around the ring from there.

[sihnfahl]

Unless he has at least one dwagon in reserve back at GK (possible, perhaps even probable, but not established as fact), that'll probably take more than one turn. That would give Ansom time to redeploy his air cover.

The Warlord rides the dwagon in to the fort. He leaves it there since it doesn't have the move to get back. This means he takes a full-move dwagon as a mount and swings on back to GK with the dwagon fort, hitting siege along the way.

If they lose the gwiffons (and if they either lose the Archons or the Archons can't carry them), they can't get back to the gump hex. If Ansom and Vinny have three move left now, then they had six move left when they were in the middle of the dwagon ring. If so, Vinny wouldn't have suggested punching through the six-dwagon hex to get back to the column -- at worst, they could get there by punching through a four-dwagon hex and moving around the ring from there.

Hm, true. But then Ansom's move would have been REALLY silly. He's jumping into a fray where, in the end, he may only have 6 units left at best. The three archons, himself, Jillian and Vinnie. That means, next turn, all the dwagon fort (what was it, 24 left?) pummel them mercilessly.

[Pyrian]

But then Ansom's move would have been REALLY silly.

...But very much in character.

[sihnfahl]

...But vey much in character.

So he'd turn his back on the responsibility of leading all the Alliance troops to victory, putting his life on the line, all those currently under his command, and all those to come after them...

... just to be happy for a turn.

[Halfpunch]

So he'd turn his back on the responsibility of leading all the Alliance troops to victory, putting his life on the line, all those currently under his command, and all those to come after them...

... just to be happy for a turn.

Quite possibly he is doing it to be happy for the rest of his (potentially short) life...

[SteveMB]

So he'd turn his back on the responsibility of leading all the Alliance troops to victory, putting his life on the line, all those currently under his command, and all those to come after them...

... just to be happy for a turn.

Again, that's if the gwiffons and Archons can't carry them clear. Ansom presumably intends to croak the dwagons with as few casualties as possible. (Also, remember that his estimates of enemy acumen are still based on his experience with Stanley.)

[Lamech]

So he'd turn his back on the responsibility of leading all the Alliance troops to victory, putting his life on the line, all those currently under his command, and all those to come after them...

... just to be happy for a turn.

Or to save Jillian. If one peep survives Jillian can run for it. Sacrificing himself to save Jillian would be such a noble thing to do. Also as pointed out he thinks he is dealing with Stanley, who probably hates Ansom and Ansom probably assumes want that Stanley want to kill Ansom.

Of course Parson should have no trouble convincing Stanley to hit the units with move to stop the Arkenpliers from leaving.

[Begle1]

We don't know of a rule saying that Ansom, Vinny and Jillian can't all pile onto one peep, do we?

I like the picture...

[SteveMB]

We don't know of a rule saying that Ansom, Vinny and Jillian can't all pile onto one peep, do we?

Unknown. We know that a dwagon can carry two riders, but we have no information about the carrying capacity of gwiffons (either the African or European variety).

[teratorn]

We don't know of a rule saying that Ansom, Vinny and Jillian can't all pile onto one peep, do we?

Nah, they'll get a deal with Charlie and they will mount the Archons.

Three warlords, three Archons... easy math.

[Theodoriph]

Nah, they'll get a deal with Charlie and they will mount the Archons.

Where can I sign up for that deal?

[Robak]

Vinny can fly by himself and if Ansoms carpet is anything like a motorcycle, Jillian can ride with him on it.

[Dwagon]

Without any Warlords to concentrate attack on single targets the cost for attacking Ansom and crew would be to high I think. It could even fail with the dragons left.

Also, without warlords he can't use his rotation tactics to finish off the siege.

So what Parson'll do next turn is probably fall back and prepare another plan for the next day. We know it will take another 3 or 4 days for Ansom's army to arrive at GK. He still has time to tilt the odds.

[Belphegor]

Nah, they'll get a deal with Charlie and they will mount the Archons.

Three warlords, three Archons... easy math.

I wanna mount the Archons

BTW anyone thinks that Parson is attuned to the Arkenpliers? My guess that is his secret weapon of mass destruction.

[One Skunk Todd]

By the end of this turn they're all going to be in the same hex, at the very least somewhat depleted from knocking down a nest full of half dead dwagons (How much damage the dwagons are going to incure upon them is arguable. Even though it looks like the dwagons aren't even touching them, remember that when the dwagons raided the column it looked like the dwagons didn't get too hurt).

The problem is, when Ansom's turn ends a new day will start and everybody will be completely healed (At least that's how I understand it) Unless the turn order changes sometimes, this is a real disadvantage for Stanley as it means he will ALWAYS be attacking units with full health and will never have the luxury of finishing off wounded stacks.

Edit for thinking about it some more:
I wonder what would happen if Ansom tried to end his turn with enemy units the same hex. Maybe you have to fight until one side completely wipes out the other. That would mean the side commanders must have some way of knowing whether or not any of their troops, anywhere, were in the same hex as/or fighting, the enemy.

[sihnfahl]

The problem is, when Ansom's turn ends a new day will start and everybody will be completely healed (At least that's how I understand it)

Stanley's units heal at dawn (the start of his turn).

Ansom's units heal at the end of Stanley's turn (the start of his turn).

[Ben]

Vinny can fly by himself and if Ansoms carpet is anything like a motorcycle, Jillian can ride with him on it.

Vinnie and Ansom can fly, but as Steve pointed out above, they don't have enough move to get anywhere useful. The forest units are out of move, and Ansom and Vinnie used the rest of theirs to get to Jillian. And by Jillian's reckoning, they had exactly enough mounts (gwiffons) to get back to the column before engaging the dwagons (1 mount didn't have the move, 4 did, so Jillian, Ansom, Vinnie and Tarfu climb on and ride to safety). 1 gwiffon has already bitten it in this battle, meaning there's a 3 in 4 chance that Ansom will already have to make some difficult choices about who gets to run and who gets to stay and get dwagonned. And there's still at least half the dwagons left. If Parson realizes this soon enough (like next comic, coming out real soon I hope), he'll go for the gwiffons. I bet 21 fully healed B dwagons will be able to take that group of heroes sans cannon fodder. Especially if 1 or 2 gwiffons live. Would Ansom leave, hoping the remaining warlords aren't a big enough target? Probably not; both because he's not the type to run and leave others behind and because high-level warlords like Vinnie and Jillian are very valuable (to deny Ansom their skills and/or as bargaining chips). If Ansom sends them off, then the "stay and fight" group is that much weaker.

My prediction (for those who keep track, my last one was wrong, but hey, I'm not gonna let that stop me):
Parson orders Phat-singh to target the gwiffons, realizing he can still salvage something. Either he craftily orders her to leave one, or she gets croaked before she can finish them all off, so one survives, heavily wounded, and with just enough movement left to save one warlord. Ansom orders Jillian to retreat back to the column, and after a heated discussion, she does. Ansom and Vinnie stick around to make their stand (too bad Vinnie predicted his own death; I like him). The archons might stick around too, or they might escort Jillian... but either way, 24 dwagons can probably do for 'em, with or without a warlord. The only reason "the stand" might have worked was because of all the gumps and woodsy elves getting leadership bonuses up the wazoo. (We can probably infer by Parson's desire to keep the warlords together for the siege strikes that they stack to some extent).
So anyway, the dwagons croak Ansom and take the arkenpliers, Jillian is left to lead the alliance forces in chapter 2, and Stanley's dwagon and warlord forces are mostly depleted... so Parson needs to find another strategy.

Just watch.

[Thes Hunter]

Something to consider....


Wanda's spell could still be active. She said it was complex. Jillian is just a more complex person than Wanda had anticipated. I do not think Wanda factored in the possibility that Jillian had actual feelings for Ansom, into whatever equations Wanda was making her schemes on.

This means Wanda's spell didn't work the way she intended it to work, but that it is still working. However, since Parson ordered Jillian to be croaked, and Ansom and Vinny are witnesses to this use of lethal force, Jillian has just gained a bunch of trust that she otherwise was on the verge of losing.

I do not know how Wanda's spell might continue to play out in this scenario, but I feel that if anything changed Jillian's feelings towards Ansom, she would then become the key factor in victory.

And yes, I do believe that Parson is the protagonist in this conflict. And that Parson is the one who will come out 'ahead' after this whole thing is over. However, I remain reserved as to whether Ansom or Stanley is the antagonist... but I am leaning towards Stanley.

But there is always the possibility that pclips completely intended for there to be no protagonist, or antagonist. As Stanley gave in his little speech about good and evil, things aren't always that clear cut.

[teratorn]

So anyway, the dwagons croak Ansom and take the arkenpliers, Jillian is left to lead the alliance forces in chapter 2, and Stanley's dwagon and warlord forces are mostly depleted... so Parson needs to find another strategy.
Just watch.

Since we are talking about scenarios that will never happen:

Spoiler

Show

Wanda takes over Jillian's body. Ansom sees her change, stab him and take the arkenpliers. Vinny makes a last stand so the archons can save heavily wounded Ansom and take him to safety, croaks Jillian but is killed by Lady Phat Singh. Stanley gets the pliers and two new uncroaked warlords.

That would make me so happy.

[sihnfahl]

I do not think Wanda factored in the possibility that Jillian had actual feelings for Ansom, into whatever equations Wanda was making her schemes on.

No, Wanda knew Jillian was in love with Ansom.
Here.

Parson: She loves Ansom?
Stanley: She hates me?
Wanda: Indeed.

[Wender]

No, Wanda knew Jillian was in love with Ansom.
Here.

Parson: She loves Ansom?
Stanley: She hates me?
Wanda: Indeed.

Right. Wanda's flaw as a strategist is on full display in the pages leading up to that exchange: Her need for control translates into a need for certainty. Jillian will not do this or that, she says. One of the things that speaks to Parson's ability as a commander is that absolutes are not in his vocabulary. His mathamancy device allows him to run a simulation and come out with a number, but this would not even be useful if he was not always aware that he was playing the odds, that the events he considered unlikely could in fact happen and he'd have to be ready when they did.

As for the thread topic, GK has a few advantages as of this page: Parson is indisputably the sole and senior commander of Stanley's forces (Stanley doesn't seem disposed to interfere for now). The tactics and strategies deployed are his alone as of the previous update. The vast majority of Ansom's air power will be parked over a lake at the end of his turn, out of move or nearly so, while all his woodsy forces are stuck without any senior command right near the Party Platter (did Vinnie leave his bats in their own hex nearby? If so, ouch), and we've only seen the "opener." Parson will not start his side's turn in a good situation, but that's nothing new. Even if Ansom's side wipes out the A dwagons, there will definitely be situations that he can exploit to considerable advantage.

[sihnfahl]

The vast majority of Ansom's air power will be parked over a lake at the end of his turn

Nope. Jillian took all the units that could reach Ansom. They weren't in range of the lake. Only the 5 gwiffons, Jillian and the 3 archons had the move to reach the lake. So now it's down to 4 gwiffons, 3 archons, Jillian, Ansom and Vinnie over the lake. No more reinforcements.

while all his woodsy forces are stuck without any senior command right near the Party Platter (did Vinnie leave his bats in their own hex nearby? If so, ouch)

He left them over the elves. THey're useless in combat. As for the elves, they have one warlord with them (Tarfu), but they're in no danger. The siege and Ansom are far more valuable targets than the elves.

[SteveMB]

Right. Wanda's flaw as a strategist is on full display in the pages leading up to that exchange: Her need for control translates into a need for certainty. Jillian will not do this or that, she says. One of the things that speaks to Parson's ability as a commander is that absolutes are not in his vocabulary. His mathamancy device allows him to run a simulation and come out with a number, but this would not even be useful if he was not always aware that he was playing the odds, that the events he considered unlikely could in fact happen and he'd have to be ready when they did.

Thinking about this led down avenues that seemed to call for a new thread.

He left them over the elves. THey're useless in combat. As for the elves, they have one warlord with them (Tarfu), but they're in no danger. The siege and Ansom are far more valuable targets than the elves.

If they had enough move to reach the wounded dwagons, leaving them behind would be a mistake -- with lots of high-value targets that can be taken out with a few more hits, every extra attacker -- even if it's generally "crap in combat" -- is valuable. Even if they can't inflict any hits at all, we know from Vinny's Option 1 that they can run interference against dwagons.

Of course, it's likely that after scouting the area, the bats don't have enough move (they'd need one move for Option 1, but three move to reach the lake), in which case bringing them wasn't an option.