[WW/Mafia] Prison Escape IC

[Xihirli]

Huh. Well I wasn't expecting that to get revealed while I was away.

Yes, we're blood brothers. Means we're a two-for-one special with the Night Kill too, so if the Baner could pick one of us I suppose that would be nice.

[flat_footed]

Sorry for my absence. I approved this thread and forgot to subscribe to it. XD

[DeTess]

Galls and guys, could you not do this thing where all the important revelations and vote moves happen after I've gone to bed? Thanks!

Anyway, I'm inclined to believe Caerulea's claim. I don't think there are enough people in this game to support two pairs of lovers, so a wolf claiming before they've been able to gather any information regarding the presence of a village pair is incredibly risky.

@Avatarvecna, will you tell us what Justicar's role did? Also, I assume kgato still being listed as on the Caerulea lynch when they switched to Jeenleen was an accident?

Now, I'm leaning slightly town on kgato. When they switched off of Caerulea the votes had been tied, and a wolf might have tried to keep their vote there for as long as possible under the guise of 'didn't see the claim untill too late'.That does slightly depend on whether kgato's schedule and posting times are a known quantity here. If he's know for beigna round each day at certain times then that's a fairly poor defense, and wolf!kgato wouldn't have been abel to get away with keeping their vote.

[Justicar]

And so an innocent man has died. *G* Good game everyone. Looking forward to seeing how the game turns out.

[Unavenger]

I was going to vote for Xihirli

Incidentally, Caerulea, I'm wondering if you have a good reason why you were planning on voting for your own blood sister?

[AvatarVecna]

@Avatarvecna, will you tell us what Justicar's role did?

Hmm...I'll do that for roles with hidden stuff, yeah. So:

Innocent – you’re a prisoner like the others, but you really are innocent. And during the riots, you managed to get proof. Now you just need to survive the night, reveal it to the outside, and you’re golden. But you realize that the corrupt guards will try to stop you, since they are part of why you are in prison.

During Night Phase, you can scry one person and identify them as the Corrupt Guard, Guard in Withdraw, or Other.

WIN CONDITION: survive + the Corrupt Guard is killed.

Also, I assume kgato still being listed as on the Caerulea lynch when they switched to Jeenleen was an accident?

Yes. Fixed.

[Caerulea]

Incidentally, Caerulea, I'm wondering if you have a good reason why you were planning on voting for your own blood sister?

I said that in the sign-up thread, before I got a role, because in general, she seems shifty. Of course, after I learned she was on my side, I change my mind.

Relevant Quote:

Sign me up. Then, get me out (of the prison). Also, Xihirli, I'm voting you day 1.

[Unavenger]

I said that in the sign-up thread, before I got a role, because in general, she seems shifty. Of course, after I learned she was on my side, I change my mind.

Relevant Quote:

Ah, fair enough. Objection retracted.

[DeTess]

I said that in the sign-up thread, before I got a role, because in general, she seems shifty. Of course, after I learned she was on my side, I change my mind.

Relevant Quote:

And here I thought it was just a little bit of distancing... XD

[Xihirli]

In case I do die tonight, I want to leave you all with a few insights.

Shadows are everywhere, and where they are, so am I.

Oh that was it.

[JeenLeen]

I just have a few moments to post today, but not much to say.

The Innocent was a wolf-friendly neutral, in that they wanted one of the Town to die, so I reckon that was a win for the Town overall. Not as good as Day 1 getting a wolf, but still good.

If X and C are confirmed as Town tonight, I hope to have time to look over Day 1 voting and see if that hints at anyone who might be Wolf.

Also, hope no offense as writing X and C instead of spelling out the name. I don't recall the exact spelling and copy-and-paste is a bit troublesome at the moment.

If we have an Armed Rioter, maybe Bane one of the two of them?

I also realize that I implied I'm not the Armed Rioter. That wasn't intentional, but since I said enough to imply that, I'll go outright and state it explicitly in hopes the wolves don't kill me tonight (that is, assuming X and C are wolf and they aren't on the chopping block.)
That is, I am not the Armed Rioter. But I do hope they have good luck in protecting X or C.

[DeTess]

I also realize that I implied I'm not the Armed Rioter. That wasn't intentional, but since I said enough to imply that, I'll go outright and state it explicitly in hopes the wolves don't kill me tonight (that is, assuming X and C are wolf and they aren't on the chopping block.)
That is, I am not the Armed Rioter. But I do hope they have good luck in protecting X or C.

*Insert squinting fry.gif*

And a princess bride reference as well, to top it off

Edit: oops, missed something that requires a more serious comment:

The Innocent was a wolf-friendly neutral, in that they wanted one of the Town to die, so I reckon that was a win for the Town overall. Not as good as Day 1 getting a wolf, but still good.

I see where you're coming from with this comment, but the lynch on a wolf-leaning neutral and a lynch on an actual wolf are two very different things. A lynch on a wolf generally comes with a massive load of information as you can look at who pushed that lynch and who tried to lynch someone else to get a pretty good idea of people's alignments. the lynch of a neutral will in most cases play out very similarly to the lynch on a towny, and those are a lot lighter on info, at least until a pattern can be established. So yeah, the lynch D1 could have gone worse, but lynching a potentially not entirely village-friendly neutral is a far cry from lynching an actual wolf in terms of game effect, and those on the lynch shouldn't really be regarded any differently than if Justicar had been a villager.

[JeenLeen]

*Insert squinting fry.gif*

Yeah, I see how it could seem wolfish to say this, but I'm willing to risk stating it out of self-preservation.

Also, as for earlier vote-changing seeming wolfish to kgato: I also see that. Changing votes frequently would allow one to vote for a wolf then move vote off (distancing move) or just spread some misinformation before seeming like you were 'convinced' to join a bandwagon.

I see where you're coming from with this comment, but the lynch on a wolf-leaning neutral and a lynch on an actual wolf are two very different things. A lynch on a wolf generally comes with a massive load of information as you can look at who pushed that lynch and who tried to lynch someone else to get a pretty good idea of people's alignments. the lynch of a neutral will in most cases play out very similarly to the lynch on a towny, and those are a lot lighter on info, at least until a pattern can be established. So yeah, the lynch D1 could have gone worse, but lynching a potentially not entirely village-friendly neutral is a far cry from lynching an actual wolf in terms of game effect, and those on the lynch shouldn't really be regarded any differently than if Justicar had been a villager.

[/quote]

Completely agree. Worth a lot less than a wolf kill in terms of info. Wolves didn't know he was a wolf-friendly neutral. I mainly meant it's better than a Town kill in terms of "until wolves outnumber town and they win".

---

With the role reveals already done, I'm wondering if I should go ahead and reveal mine. I won't yet, but I may soonish (e.g., Day 2 or Night 2).

[DeTess]

With the role reveals already done, I'm wondering if I should go ahead and reveal mine. I won't yet, but I may soonish (e.g., Day 2 or Night 2).

You shouldn't (unless revealing will allow the village to almost certainly get a wolf-lynch out of the deal). Even if your role isn't one that puts you on the priority list for the wolves, revealing that fact will make it easier for the wolves to find those who do have roles problematic for them.

[kgato503]

You shouldn't (unless revealing will allow the village to almost certainly get a wolf-lynch out of the deal). Even if your role isn't one that puts you on the priority list for the wolves, revealing that fact will make it easier for the wolves to find those who do have roles problematic for them.

I agree. Generally, you should keep your role hidden unless your life depends on it, it is the only way to steer the Town to a needed Wolf lynch (and even then you should be careful), or it is the only way to prevent the Town from making a catastrophic mistake that could cost your team the win (Note: these conditions are not mutually exclusive). Once you reveal, you cannot undo that, and it will give the Wolves information on who to (and not to) target. Part of the game play is figuring out how to put whatever information you gain to good use in achieving your goal, without getting yourself killed in a bloody and horrible fashion. And preferably not getting too many teammates killed in the process either .

So, yeah, wait to reveal if you can. That being said, timing is everything. If you are in the lead for the lynch in the later part of the day, and think revealing might save you, try to reveal sooner than, say, an hour before day's end. Not everyone is on at the same time, and waiting too long might still get you killed.

[AvatarVecna]

End Of Night One

The power flickers on and off for a few seconds, until eventually backup lights - dark red, barely enough to see by - flicker on. But between flickering lights, everybody suddenly moving to ready weapons in case they had to defend themselves, and the cramped metal spaces you were all moving within, nobody was looking in the right place to see where the shot came from, and it echoed too much to place by ear. By the time the full lights came back on, one of your own was left bleeding out on the floor. Yeah, kgato503 might've been a guard, but dangit he was an easily-bribed guard! More importantly, that's one less person who knows the faces of the guards hidden among you still...

kgato503 was killed. They were the Corrupt Guard.

Start of Day Two.

[Xihirli]

Well that's not good at all.

...Prison riot, guys?

[DeTess]

Has anyone had a PM with kgato? If someone did, did kgato mention talking to anyone else? I have a hard time figuring out the motive for this kill if the wolves didn't know about his role, as kgato had been the focus of some lynch discussion, so killing him is not a zero-info move, and there was the supposed juicy target of the blood-brothers right here.

[Grand Arbiter]

I’ll open with a pressure poke on flat_footed while I ponder a better candidate.

Has anyone had a PM with kgato? If someone did, did kgato mention talking to anyone else? I have a hard time figuring out the motive for this kill if the wolves didn't know about his role, as kgato had been the focus of some lynch discussion, so killing him is not a zero-info move, and there was the supposed juicy target of the blood-brothers right here.

My best guess is that the wolves didn’t want to deal with a 50-50 shot of picking the unprotected member of the pair, and instead went for another person. Seems they got lucky with pegging one of our scryers, but having the Armed Rioter alive means we still have a bane or night-kill in our court.

[Elenna]

Welp, at least we have another seer, once they figure out which one they are? (Reminder that both the Corrupt Guard and the Guard in Withdrawal are revealed as the Corrupt Guard on death.)

Has anyone had a PM with kgato? If someone did, did kgato mention talking to anyone else? I have a hard time figuring out the motive for this kill if the wolves didn't know about his role, as kgato had been the focus of some lynch discussion, so killing him is not a zero-info move, and there was the supposed juicy target of the blood-brothers right here.

Eh, there were some votes for kgato, but since they were all random votes and nobody else knew his role, I'm having trouble finding any information we can actually get from that. (Although if you have any thoughts, feel free to share them.) I'm inclined to agree with Libro, the wolves probably just didn't want to risk hitting the Armed Rioter bane if they went for the blood brothers. Not sure if they saw something about kgato that I missed, or if they just got lucky.
(Well, that or Caerulea and Xihirli are actually lying wolves, but I don't think it's likely that wolf!Caerulea would just volunteer the name of another wolf like that. Still, better to not forget about the possibility.)

[DeTess]

Eh, there were some votes for kgato, but since they were all random votes and nobody else knew his role, I'm having trouble finding any information we can actually get from that. (Although if you have any thoughts, feel free to share them.)

There's a couple of things, though no outright smoking guns. There was some pretty early push-back against the initial kgato wagon that made kgato a valuable slot to resolve, as with his role unknown, a team with kgato, me and JeenLeen wasn't inconceivable, for example. Kgato also voted very defensively, which I usually consider something of a wolf-trait, so his death actually removes a potential mis-lynch opportunity for the wolves (I think that I'd probably have pushed for their lynch otherwise). Kgato's death also makes both Caerulea (with the random vote that ended up adding on top of a villager) and Xihirli (she was considering voting on kgato, but held off, which could have been a pocketing attempt) look a bit suspicious, but given the attention they already got, I doubt they'd pick a target that'd make them look bad.

Anyway, I'm going to try another avenue of approach for now. The outsider, so far your only contribution has been to vote on Justicar because you wanted to see them talk a bit more. So, if at all possible, I'd like to see you t alk a bit more as well.

[Caerulea]

Shoot, forgot that we started. I’ll take a look when I get home and vote then.

Does it take 72 hours to get home, BasketOfPuppies? What do you have to say about the current state?
(I'll move my vote when you respond)

[Xihirli]

I'm going to second the vote on Justicar, just because I want to see them speak. (Hear? See?)
And for the record, Xihirli, I don't have a backstory. I appeared one day in a puff of narrative contrivance.

This second vote seems tailor-made to not make waves, and it was all the discussion we got from The Outsider. Let's start a wagon.

[The Outsider]

You know, remaining inconspicuous wasn't my intent when I voted, but I can see how it would appear that way to others. I legitimately wanted to see as many people talk as possible, so I could start analyzing them. Disclaimer: my instincts are wrong 75% of the time; case in point, I was suspicious of Xihirli until the blood brothers reveal. That being said, here are my thoughts on the current situation:
-DeTess gives me a wolf vibe, for no adequately explainable reason.
-JeenLeen also strikes me as shady, due to various comments made so far. Then again, DeTess indicated suspicion of JeenLeen, so they can't both be wolves...
-BasketOfPuppies has been rather inactive, but as the D1 lynch showed that's not really indicative of anything. Hell, I've been a bit inactive.
-Caerulea and Xihirli are most likely telling the truth, but that one might be a bit obvious.
I haven't managed to get a read on anyone else. Also, not gonna lie, I'm a bit terrified that I'll stumble onto the truth in my wild flailing and get night-killed for it. That being said, I'm going to avoid being inconspicuous and vote for DeTess.

[DeTess]

-DeTess gives me a wolf vibe, for no adequately explainable reason.
-JeenLeen also strikes me as shady, due to various comments made so far. Then again, DeTess indicated suspicion of JeenLeen, so they can't both be wolves...

I'm about to go to sleep, so I don't really have the time or the brain-power for any sort of in-depth response, so instead I want to ask you something. You've expressed suspicion of both me and JeenLeen. Your suspicion of me seems to be based on a gut-feeling, while your suspicion of JeenLeen is because of some suspicious things he said. Is there a reason why you're going with your gut over the suspicion based on Jeenleen's comments? And what were those comments by JeenLeen that struck you as suspicious?

edit:

I haven't managed to get a read on anyone else. Also, not gonna lie, I'm a bit terrified that I'll stumble onto the truth in my wild flailing and get night-killed for it.

Also, just a little comment/personal opinion on this: If you get killed as a villager because you got to close in your analysis, it means you where doing what you where supposed to do. If you get left alive until the end because you never got close then you weren't being a particularly good villager. When I am a villager, I always keep all my suspicions public. That might cause the wolves to kill me early, but if they do then at least the village is left with a lot of information and interactions to look through for evidence.

tl:dr; don't fear being killed for getting too close. Fear being left alive because the wolves think you're not a threat :P

(oh, and before I forget, I would like to note that this comment could also serve as a 'reminder' to everyone that you're a villager and fear the night-kill just as much as everyone else. I don't know yet if this was a genuine comment or a wolf plant, but its something that I feel is worth pointing out)

[BasketOfPuppies]

Does it take 72 hours to get home, BasketOfPuppies? What do you have to say about the current state?
(I'll move my vote when you respond)

Sorry about that, I thought I posted something the other day.

I think that chasing after reasoning for kgato dying is just gonna spiral into WIFOM- we don’t have enough info to say anything certain.

[The Outsider]

"Various comments" was probably the wrong way to phrase that. It might have had something to do with putting a positive spin on the neutral kill and implying things about their role, but really it's just another gut feeling and the one on you is stronger.

[JeenLeen]

I'm leaning now that X and C are lying wolves, but there's no bandwagon on them so voting on them doesn't do much good.

Libro is defending them, so I'm going to vote him. If he dies as wolf, then that puts evidence to X and C as wolves, too. If he is Town, then... well, doesn't prove X/C are innocent, but means I made a mistake...
I am willing to think that the wolves didn't want to risk X/C target and get the baned one, and that they are hoping we'll kill them for them.

Also, I have a new baby boy and am pretty tired. If I really screwed up some analysis, please point it out. Not sure if I'll be back online during this Day, though.

Lastly, in my QuickTopic I got this note "when the lights flickered back on." I think it was something I wrote earlier, and I'm not really sure of its import, but I'll post it here in case it matters. I, as a new player, aren't sure what it means to get something like this in QuickTopic, but I share it for the benefit of the Town. (I can't imagine any way my power would have given me this insight.)

"Interesting analysis point I noticed. If nobody dies, then X and C are probably telling the truth and the baner successfully protected them."

[Elenna]

Now, I'm leaning slightly town on kgato. When they switched off of Caerulea the votes had been tied, and a wolf might have tried to keep their vote there for as long as possible under the guise of 'didn't see the claim untill too late'.That does slightly depend on whether kgato's schedule and posting times are a known quantity here. If he's know for beigna round each day at certain times then that's a fairly poor defense, and wolf!kgato wouldn't have been abel to get away with keeping their vote.

Kgato also voted very defensively, which I usually consider something of a wolf-trait, so his death actually removes a potential mis-lynch opportunity for the wolves (I think that I'd probably have pushed for their lynch otherwise).

Any particular reason for the change of mind, DeTess? Feels like it could be a wolf forgetting who they're pretending to be suspicious of, since they know who's actually a wolf.

I haven't managed to get a read on anyone else. Also, not gonna lie, I'm a bit terrified that I'll stumble onto the truth in my wild flailing and get night-killed for it. That being said, I'm going to avoid being inconspicuous and vote for DeTess.

Besides what DeTess said, remember that there's going to be a villager night-killed most nights anyways. If you have a minor power or no power at all, it's actually better for town that you die rather than someone like the Seer dying. Yes, it sucks that if you die you don't get to play for the rest of the game. But remember that if town wins, all town players win, regardless of whether they survived.

I'm leaning now that X and C are lying wolves

Any particular reason for that?

- - - Updated - - -

Also, I have a new baby boy and am pretty tired. If I really screwed up some analysis, please point it out. Not sure if I'll be back online during this Day, though.

Congrats!

Lastly, in my QuickTopic I got this note "when the lights flickered back on." I think it was something I wrote earlier, and I'm not really sure of its import, but I'll post it here in case it matters. I, as a new player, aren't sure what it means to get something like this in QuickTopic, but I share it for the benefit of the Town. (I can't imagine any way my power would have given me this insight.)

A quick Ctrl-F didn't bring up that phrase anywhere in this thread, and I don't remember anyone saying anything like that (at least not publicly). My guess is a neutral who has the power to send anonymous messages to people?

[Xihirli]

I'm leaning now that X and C are lying wolves, but there's no bandwagon on them so voting on them doesn't do much good.

Libro is defending them, so I'm going to vote him. If he dies as wolf, then that puts evidence to X and C as wolves, too. If he is Town, then... well, doesn't prove X/C are innocent, but means I made a mistake...
I am willing to think that the wolves didn't want to risk X/C target and get the baned one, and that they are hoping we'll kill them for them.

Libro doesn't have anyone else voting for him either, JeenLeen. Is this analysis or is it just supposed to look a lot like it?