[WW/Mafia] Prison Escape IC

[Caerulea]

JeenLeen seems kind of all over, trying to cover his bases. Like he is trying to vote but avoid any repercussions, and I did say I'd move off of BasketOfPuppies.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I’m gonna hop on theJeenLeen wagon because it looks like he’s a wolf trying to look helpful.

[DeTess]

Any particular reason for the change of mind, DeTess? Feels like it could be a wolf forgetting who they're pretending to be suspicious of, since they know who's actually a wolf.

Or it could be because I don't have perfect info and will therefore be changing my mind after looking over someone again? His death triggered me to look over his posts again, and the defensive voting coupled with low activity would have caused some suspicion. Its kinda a moot point given that kgato is ready dead, but it made me wonder even more about why he got targeted.

I'll take a slightly more in-depth look over everyone in a bit.

[The Outsider]

Yeah, my suspicion of JeenLeen just increased a substantial amount.

That being said, congrats on the baby!

[DeTess]

Well, then, time for a first in-depth look over the player list. I'll not go over Xihirli and Caerulea, as their alignment is a simple case of whether I think they are lying or not about their role, and so far I have no reason to believe they are lying. I'm als skipping flat_footed and basketofpuppies because they've said (almost, in basketofpuppies case) nothing.

Elenna
There's some interesting bits. She voices support for a the lynch on Caerulea, but doesn't reinforce the wagon, working under the assumption that that lynch is already locked in. Instead, she adds a second vote on flat-footed, creating a three-way tie (and therefore reducing the odds of Caerulea getting lynched). After the role reveal, she supported the lynch on Justicar to ensure Caerulea didn't die.

D2, she put in a reminder that Xihirli and Caerulea could still be lying wolves and put in a vote on me because I changed my mind on kgato.

Overall, I don't have a strong read on her, but she is active enough that it should resolve in time. I would like to note that if Xihirli and Caerulea end up being wolves after all, I think Elenna has a decent chance of being one of their teammates. The way she voiced support for the Caerulea lynch but then didn't contribute to it, and the way she kept the option of her lying open, but didn't really acting on it could have been distancing.

I am assuming something about the rules that avatarvecna implied, but I don't think she confirmed it publicly. @avatarvecna, what happens on a tie?

flyinglemur
Lemur has yet to post this day, and their posts D1 where NAI or wolfish in that they where about avoiding attention and getting a vote of their back.

Conclusion: lemur, like flat-footed and basketofpuppies really needs to talk more.

Libro
Libro has been flying under the radar as well. So far they've only been poking people, which creates something of an illusion of activity, but not much more than that in terms of information.

I'm leaning slightly wolf on him, given that his activity is enough to not immediately be lumped in the 'isn't saying anything' bin, but he hasn't done anything besides poke-voting so far.

The Outsider
The outsider was very low-profile during D1, but got more involved in the talk during D2. I wish they could provide some more reasons for their suspicions, but I don't think that's necessarily alignment indicative. Trying to start a wagon based on a gut read is actually a bit of a risky move for a wolf, because if its a miss there isn't any reasonable sounding argument to hide behind.

Conclusion: very slight village lean, but needs to keep activity and talk up so that people can read them as well. (so I'm retracting my vote on the outsider)

Unavenger
I'm having a bit of trouble getting a read on Unavenger. Vote-wise, they've only poked so far, but they've had some other interactions. Some of their comments suggest that they're rather new (such as complaining about unfamiliar mind-games or only having RNG-votes as a talking option D1), but their familiarity with roles like the jester and preference for starting conditions suggest that they've played this game quite a bit. I'm bringing this up, because it actually influence my read on them. If they're fairly new, then they do seem to be reasonably relaxed and casual in their interactions, which makes me lean a bit more town. If they're experienced, then their lack of committing in votes makes me lean slightly wolf.

JeenLeen
First of all, congratulations with the birth of your son!

Secondly, based on his posts, I'd say JeenLeen is a very new player. He said as much, of course, but his constant worrying about things seeming wolfy pretty much confirms it. However, I think this worrying on its own is almost entirely NAI. Its something I've found new players of both alignments tend to do this, though new wolves can be more self-conscious about it than new villagers. On the other hand, a new wolf will also usually get told very quickly by more experienced players not to keep bringing that up.

If he's a wolf then I don't really understand why he's reopening the Xihirli and Caerulea issue. I reckon that without a proper smoking gun, or at least a significant chunk of evidence against them, mis-lynching them will be very tricky, and it'd be easier to just chuck in the night-kill against them.

But on the other hand, some of his comments about being a new player and a villagers and the like are almost ridiculously blatant? For example:

I, as a new player, aren't sure what it means to get something like this in QuickTopic, but I share it for the benefit of the Town.

Conclusion: I'm really not sure. He doesn't really seem like he has a wolf team backing him up and providing advice, but the amount of selfconciousness in his posts means that its a bit tricky top read him as village either, as I don't often see villagers,e ven completely new ones, that are so worried about if they're seen as village.
***

I'm going to vote on libro for now, but I might join the JeenLeen wagon later if the vote on libro doesn't take off.

Anyway, for all those that are currently in my 'isn't saying enough category', maybe a question will help you talk more? I'd like to know who you currently trust most (and if its the bloodbrothers, who you trust most after them), and also who you think is most likely to be a wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

I am assuming something about the rules that avatarvecna implied, but I don't think she confirmed it publicly. @avatarvecna, what happens on a tie?

If there is a tie in vote totals, whoever reached that total first gets lynched.

[Caerulea]

JeenLeen
If he's a wolf then I don't really understand why he's reopening the Xihirli and Caerulea issue. I reckon that without a proper smoking gun, or at least a significant chunk of evidence against them, mis-lynching them will be very tricky, and it'd be easier to just chuck in the night-kill against them.

I would assume, based on the fact that we're not dead, that the wolves thought that if we weren't killed the town would lynch us the next night. With this, JeenLeen could be trying to cause that to happen. Or not, who knows? But I wouldn't be suprised if we die tonight.

[DeTess]

If there is a tie in vote totals, whoever reached that total first gets lynched.

Huh, okay. Good thing I asked then, as I was running under the assumption it would be random.

That changes my read on Elenna slightly, or at least makes her votes around Caerulea D1 less ambiguous. I still find it striking that she voiced support for a lynch that was far from being locked in, but then didn't vote on it.

[Justicar]

Well, it appears that, when y'all searched my corpse, you found the papers with evidence about the Corrupt Guard. I have been avenged! Kinda... sorta... not really.

[flat_footed]

I'll do a better post soon, but the JeenLeen wagon has gathered a lot of steam in a very short period of time. Here's a vote for Libro mostly so we have a counter wagon.

[JeenLeen]

Thanks for the congrats.

As for the wagon on me: I can see why some of my actions seem wolfish, but it is mostly my trying to offer sincere analysis and there not being a lot of conclusiveness. I think the biggest "unknown" now is if X and C are wolves or town. I can see it either way. I think they might be lying wolves (to answer X's question) because they are still alive. But I think they might be town because the wolves coulda left them alive in hopes the town kills them off.

I might've shifted my vote, but the libro wagon seems my best bet to stay alive, so I'll stick to it.

I'll also do a partial role reveal in hopes of staying alive, both in alleviating wolf concerns about me and maybe getting some votes off of me. I'm a neutral -- so some of my actions are that I don't really care if the Town or Wolves win. My power and win condition is wolf-friendly: I can scry to detect if somebody is a particular town role (one of the weaker ones, in my opinion), and I win if I survive and that person is dead. But as long as the game lasts enough to give good odds that person dies, I win, so I'm fine with supporting the town.

If this reveal leads to my death, well, I know more from experience of how to play next game.

[DeTess]

As for the wagon on me: I can see why some of my actions seem wolfish, but it is mostly my trying to offer sincere analysis and there not being a lot of conclusiveness.

[snip]

If this reveal leads to my death, well, I know more from experience of how to play next game.

I can't speak for everyone else, but what stands out to me in your posts isn't a lack of certainty or conclusiveness, but rather that you often include sections in your posts which seem to be intended solely to remind us that you're not a wolf. Here are some examples of what I mean:

Lastly, in my QuickTopic I got this note "when the lights flickered back on." I think it was something I wrote earlier, and I'm not really sure of its import, but I'll post it here in case it matters. I, as a new player, aren't sure what it means to get something like this in QuickTopic, but I share it for the benefit of the Town.

I also realize that I implied I'm not the Armed Rioter. That wasn't intentional, but since I said enough to imply that, I'll go outright and state it explicitly in hopes the wolves don't kill me tonight (that is, assuming X and C are wolf and they aren't on the chopping block.)
That is, I am not the Armed Rioter. But I do hope they have good luck in protecting X or C.

Things is, statements like that aren't really useful. You aren't proving that you're not a wolf with those statements, yet they seem intended to make us think you're not a wolf nonetheless. Proving that you're nota wolf is a case of 'show, don't tell'. Don't tell us that you're not a wolf, show us by trying to find the wolves. Does that make sense?

That having been said, I'm inclined to believe your claim of Neutrality. It matches with you wondering about role-claiming back in N1, at the very least.

Since you mentioned moving your vote, but not wanting to die, who would you move to if that wasn't a concern?

[Grand Arbiter]

@DeTess

Libro has been flying under the radar as well. So far they've only been poking people, which creates something of an illusion of activity, but not much more than that in terms of information.

I'm leaning slightly wolf on him, given that his activity is enough to not immediately be lumped in the 'isn't saying anything' bin, but he hasn't done anything besides poke-voting so far.

I’ve been quiet until I had time and more info/posts to work with. I don’t like making assumptions without something to work upon, nor writing walls of text without meaning to them (role-play being in a different category). The former is shoddy theorycrafting and the latter is giving the appearance of contributing without actually doing so.

That said, my reads:
1. BasketOfPuppies: Null read. Not enough text to base anything on.
2. Caerulea: Uncounterclaimed Blood Brother. Town
3. DeTess: Most likely town based upon tone and content, but am not 100% certain as there were some really vocal wolves last game.
4. Elenna: Pinging them as neutral at best. They have a lot of text but it reads like fluff written to seem like they are contributing, yet actually not doing all that much.
5. flat_footed: Null read. Few posts.
6. flyinglemur: Also Null read due to insufficient posting.
7. JeenLeen: Wagon feels kinda flimsy to me, both the one on him and the one on me.

Libro is defending them, so I'm going to vote him.

I stated my opinion that the wolves shot for a different townie rather than have a 50-50 chance of a kill with targeting one of the Blood Brothers. In other words, the wolves shot someone that would likely be unprotected rather than try to guess which of the two Blood Brothers wasn’t baned by the Armed Rioter. Frankly, it’s a smart choice from the wolves.

If he is Town, then... well, doesn't prove X/C are innocent, but means I made a mistake...

Mistake is tying my identity to X/C. If they’re wolf then town is in a helluva hole.
8. Justicar: Innocent, Day 1 lynch
9. kgato503: Corrupt Guard, Night 1 wolf kill.
10. Libro: Me, myself, and I. Town
11. The Outsider: Mild town read based on tone.
12. Unavenger: similar to The Outsider, mild town read.
13. Xihirli: as Caerulea

While I’d like to have my vote on Elenna, especially with JeenLeen claiming neutral while I composed this (albeit wolf-friendly), I’m going to play towards self-preservation and vote for JeenLeen. I don’t want to take the risk of a vote-reduction power leading to me being lynched. If enough people move to Elenna then I will gladly change my vote.

Posted via mobile between classes, please forgive spelling/grammar/formatting errors.

[Caerulea]

I think the biggest "unknown" now is if X and C are wolves or town.

Town.

I'll also do a partial role reveal in hopes of staying alive, both in alleviating wolf concerns about me and maybe getting some votes off of me. I'm a neutral -- so some of my actions are that I don't really care if the Town or Wolves win. My power and win condition is wolf-friendly: I can scry to detect if somebody is a particular town role (one of the weaker ones, in my opinion), and I win if I survive and that person is dead. But as long as the game lasts enough to give good odds that person dies, I win, so I'm fine with supporting the town.

JeenLeen is a self-proclaimed 'wolf friendly neutral', who wants to kill someone in the town. I'm pretty sure that Libro is town, and while murdering JeenLeen doesn't provide much more than confirmation of his role, at least it removes someone working against the town. It's a safe lynch, if we don't have better candidates.

The current votes, to my knowledge are:
(1) flat_footed: Libro,
(2) DeTess: Elenna
(2) Elenna: The Outsider, DeTess, Caerulea
(2) Libro: JeenLeen, flat_footed
(5) JeenLeen: Xihirli, BasketOfPuppies, The Outsider, Libro

[DeTess]

JeenLeen is a self-proclaimed 'wolf friendly neutral', who wants to kill someone in the town. I'm pretty sure that Libro is town, and while murdering JeenLeen doesn't provide much more than confirmation of his role, at least it removes someone working against the town. It's a safe lynch, if we don't have better candidates.

I've got to disagree with you here. The only lynch that's safe for the village is one that's guaranteed to hit a wolf. Any other lynch has a chance (or in this case, a guarantee) to reduce the amount of mislynches we can make before we lose.

Anyway, I'm seeing a lot of people saying things along the lines off 'I believe JeenLeen is neutral, but don't want to lynch Libro', so let's see if this triggers any movement: Libro, Elenna.

(note, I'm used to using green to indicate a retracted vote, but I'm not sure what the standard is here?)

Edit: @Libro, I can understand wanting to wait for people to talk more before commiting more than a poke-vote, but if everyone does that than no information besides vote patterns (which would take 3-4 cycles to be established) is gained. I'd prefer it fi everyone started out with some 'shoddy theory-crafting', because at least it shows something about how someone is looking at the game, and whether they have any biases in favor of certain other people.

[AvatarVecna]

(note, I'm used to using green to indicate a retracted vote, but I'm not sure what the standard is here?)

There isn't, not really. You can go back and cross out your old vote (although some people frown on editing old posts so YMMV there), you could do a Unvote in your post, or you could just post your new vote. I'm only gonna count your most recent one regardless.

[The Outsider]

Speaking of biases, I'd really rather not vote up a neutral that we can theoretically win with. It just doesn't sit right with me, so I'm going to shift my vote to Elenna.
I dislike being this shifty with my votes, but... yeah. Both my suspicions so far have given me reason to reconsider.

[Caerulea]

It is safe in the sense that it is less bad for the town than lynching a town would be. That said, I am fine switching to Elenna.

[Unavenger]

Unavenger
I'm having a bit of trouble getting a read on Unavenger. Vote-wise, they've only poked so far, but they've had some other interactions. Some of their comments suggest that they're rather new (such as complaining about unfamiliar mind-games or only having RNG-votes as a talking option D1), but their familiarity with roles like the jester and preference for starting conditions suggest that they've played this game quite a bit. I'm bringing this up, because it actually influence my read on them. If they're fairly new, then they do seem to be reasonably relaxed and casual in their interactions, which makes me lean a bit more town. If they're experienced, then their lack of committing in votes makes me lean slightly wolf.

I'm mostly used to Town of Salem (in which D1 is 10 seconds long and only exists so that Jailer can use their day ability).

Imma pile on the Elenna wagon, not out of really knowing why so much as trusting the people who are already on the wagon.

[Grand Arbiter]

Edit: @Libro, I can understand wanting to wait for people to talk more before commiting more than a poke-vote, but if everyone does that than no information besides vote patterns (which would take 3-4 cycles to be established) is gained. I'd prefer it if everyone started out with some 'shoddy theory-crafting', because at least it shows something about how someone is looking at the game, and whether they have any biases in favor of certain other people.

I can see your point, and probably should commit to a cause more D1/D2. It just bothers me to vote someone out without something backing it up, even if lynch data can be of use.

Also, I hope nobody took offense at my statement of "shoddy theorycrafting". That was aimed at myself, since I put a helluva lot of time even into simple posts. I spent 40 minutes on my previous post during my break between classes, and it still felt too rough, rushed and thrown together. Hence the "please forgive spelling/grammar/formatting errors", despite the fact that i probably caught them all.

Anyway, I'm seeing a lot of people saying things along the lines off 'I believe JeenLeen is neutral, but don't want to lynch Libro', so let's see if this triggers any movement: Libro, Elenna.

Seems to be enough people that I'm not sitting in lynch territory, so I can get behind that motion. Elenna

The current votes, to my knowledge are:
(1) flat_footed: Libro,
...

Just giving notice that I struck through that vote when I compiled my previous post, as I will strike through my vote for JeenLeen after posting this.

[flyinglemur]

Sorry for the inactivity, school stuff happened. Looking over the situation, it seems like Elenna is the one to vote for here. JeenLeen seems genuine, they were very open about their role, and if what they say is true then they should be willing to support the town most of the time. Might as well take the risk and gain new information from the lynching.

[Elenna]

Welp I should have checked the game upon being of work apparently JeenLeen for the self-preservation vote (I think they have more votes than Libro still?)

I'm seeing a lot of votes on me without a ton of reasoning given. Kinda hard to argue against my lunch in that case. Especially since I don't have any strong suspicions I can offer as an alternative. Although I would mention that wolves don't often get a bunch of people piling on them like this with no attempts at a counterwagon. WIFOM, I know.

Imma pile on the Elenna wagon, not out of really knowing why so much as trusting the people who are already on the wagon.

*side-eyes* why do you trust them? Do you have any other people you're suspicious of?

- - - Updated - - -

@Libro (not going to quote your post because phone editing sucks): Yeah, I haven't really had time to look over things much, and nobody has really jumped out at me on first glance. But I don't think I'm doing much less analysis then most other posters - it just looks like more fluff because I have a tendency to talk a lot regardless of role.

- - - Updated - - -

Huh, okay. Good thing I asked then, as I was running under the assumption it would be random.

That changes my read on Elenna slightly, or at least makes her votes around Caerulea D1 less ambiguous. I still find it striking that she voiced support for a lynch that was far from being locked in, but then didn't vote on it.

It was less "I think Caerulea should die" and more "I think she's a better option than Justicar but I want to find a third option instead."

- - - Updated - - -

And I think that's it for actual arguments against me? Everyone else seems to be voting either for self defense or just to jump on the bandwagon, which seems... odd.

[JeenLeen]

Elenna, mostly to guarantee own life and her RNGness in D1 seemed suspicious.

Thanks to those who pointed out why I seemed extra shifty. I appreciate the advice.

As for who I would vote for if no self-perservation: X or C, as I don't believe their claim with confidence. But Elenna is the one I'd next peg as wolf. Libro seemed to defend himself well.

[Caerulea]

Okay, what does WIFOM mean? I've seen it a couple of times now, and can not figure it out.

[AvatarVecna]

Okay, what does WIFOM mean? I've seen it a couple of times now, and can not figure it out.

WIFOM explanation.

End Of Day Two

Quiet whispers and guarded looks through the day gradually spread a very particular message around the small group of rioters as they explored the depths of the prison looking for escape: more than a couple people had seen Elenna skulking around where she oughtn't've been when the power was flickering...and now that you think on it, it seems like that's all most of you can ever remember her doing while you were still locked up. Always watching and listening when she shouldn't be...and usually right before someone got in serious trouble.

When the mob descended upon her, the eventually found an incriminating letter on her person - some tripe from the warden about "good behavior" and "in thanks for your cooperation". She was no mere snitch working for a rival gang, she had been snitching on them all to the guards! Well..."had" being the operative word. Dead men tell no tales, and all that.

Elenna died. She was the Inside Man.

Night Two Begins

Spoiler: Vote Count

Show

JeenLeen: Xihirli, BasketOfPuppies, Elenna
Libro: flat_footed
Elenna: DeTess, The Outsider, Caerulea, Unavenger, Libro, flyinglemur, JeenLeen

[Xihirli]

Huh. I was alright with icing a Neutral that we can't guarantee won't switch sides in the late game, but this is even better.

And @JeenLeen: If me and Caerulea are wolves, then that means that there are no Blood Brothers in this game, something Caerulea could not have known when she claimed. If there were blood brothers to counterclaim us, they would have and the Village would have bagged two wolves instead of the one they were after when Caerulea role-claimed.

If there are any Blood Brothers who want to counterclaim, please go ahead so village can kill me and Caerulea and we can get three wolves in as many days.

Also, as far as nicknames for me go I prefer Xi to X.

[DeTess]

Okay, what does WIFOM mean? I've seen it a couple of times now, and can not figure it out.

WIFOM means 'wine in front of me'. I linked a short clip from the princess bride earlier in the thread which should demonstrate what it means :P

Edit: anyway, time to take another look at today's lynch.

The final tally was:

JeenLeen: Xihirli, BasketOfPuppies, Elenna
Libro: flat_footed
Elenna: DeTess, The Outsider, Caerulea, Unavenger, Libro, flyinglemur, JeenLeen


If I'm not mistaken, Caerulea's vote tied Elenna and Jeenleen, and then Unavenger's vote put Elenna in the lead. At that point, the other votes on Elenna where the outsider's and mine. I think it's safe to say that all these people are likely to be village. Libro is likely village as well, as he was the spiritual start of the wagon, but I can't be quite as sure because it could have been a wolf-wolf distancing technique in the light of a likely lynch.

So, if we exclude these people, we're left with the following pool of suspects:

BasketOfPuppies
flat_footed
flyinglemur
JeenLeen
Xihirli

Xihirli can be dropped from the suspect pool, because she can't be evil if Caerulea is considered to be good, while JeenLeen has a fairly convincing Neutral claim. So we're left with just three players: BasketOfPuppies, flat_footed and flyinglemur. Unfortunately, these are also some of the least talkative people in the game currently, so figuring out which of them needs to be lynched will be tricky. Of course, if they were all to suddenly talk and participate more then maybe it'd be easier to avoid lynching the wrong ones... *Wink* wink*, *nudge* *nudge*

[BasketOfPuppies]

I avoided talking during the latter part of d2 because I didn’t have anything new to add and didn’t just want to make noise. Elenna seemed a little more suspicious than Jeen to me, but I didn’t want to just keep swapping my vote to the latest bandwagon; that’s a great way to get misidentified as a wolf. I’d also rather lynch a wolf-leaning neutral than someone who might be a wolf or might be a townie who messes up. Sure, I was wrong this time, but over time I feel that this is more consistent.

[JeenLeen]

And @JeenLeen: If me and Caerulea are wolves, then that means that there are no Blood Brothers in this game, something Caerulea could not have known when she claimed. If there were blood brothers to counterclaim us, they would have and the Village would have bagged two wolves instead of the one they were after when Caerulea role-claimed.

If there are any Blood Brothers who want to counterclaim, please go ahead so village can kill me and Caerulea and we can get three wolves in as many days.

Also, as far as nicknames for me go I prefer Xi to X.

Good point. At this point, the Blood Brothers would probably out y'all instead of staying hidden. And there seem to be enough players that I think it's likely all Town roles exist, unless there's more neutrals besides me and Justicar. So I'll trust y'all.

Going on DeTess' analysis, choosing BasketOfPuppies. Choosing him out of the others mostly 'cause they voted for me and flat_footed helped the anti-killing-me last day.

EDIT: well, you can tell how tired I am. Forgot it was Night phase, not day.

[BasketOfPuppies]

Also you called me “him” when my pronouns are they/them.