Mafia/WW Red Atlantic Cruise

[gac3]

For a minute I almost suggested that the medic only announce if they didn't block something. Then we could feel confident the theory was correct. But maybe that's the wolf plan because that actually sounds like a decent plan if I was them. So I'm on "medic say nothing."

[Grek]

	Medic/Blocker targets Caerula/Wolves...	Neither Medic nor Blocker did so...
Wolves targeted Caerula...	Wolves used block-proof NK N1 on the narrator??? Why?	Consistent with observations, but weird for the Wolves to do.
Wolves target elsewhere	Inconsistent with observations, indicates narrator 'death' was a red herring/joke about night lynches. But implies some other reason for no other deaths.	Consistent with observations, but statistically unlikely as it would require the medic/blocker blindly match the wolves target/identity.
Wolves target noone.	Inconsistent with observations, indicates narrator 'death' was a red herring/joke about night lynches. Explains the lack of NK.	Consistent with observations, but requires wolves to be AFK/intentionally not killing for some reason.

The only reasonable conclusion is that either one of the medic/blocker was successful through blind luck, or the wolves failed to use a night action. And given that one of the reasons to refrain from using a night kill N1 is to make the medic come out with bad information about who is/is not town...

[gac3]

Grek, don't forget that we could have town kills. So the narrator death could possibly be a town kill victim. It doesn't change much about the rest of what you said But I don't think the narrator's death was meant as a joke or a commentary itself. I fully believe somebody killed him.

[JeenLeen]

If there is just one wolf, or a relatively small wolf faction, I could see them possibly avoiding a NK in order to spread certain misinformation. That theory seems a stretch, and I'm not certain what misinformation that might be, but it's possible.

But I'm guessing it's that they targeted whoever the medic was protecting.

[Valmark]

To be honest if they really avoided killing then yes, they managed to spread misinformation since suspects fell on Xeno and Flying, assuming they aren't really wolves. That said, this still favors town, doesn't it? There will still be more time for us to discover them.

Alright, it ensured that we lynched some specific person, but I don't see much of a gain.

I like to think that the madman is secretly taking notes on all those who say that it doesn't make sense in order to get revenge later.

[Xihirli]

Now look, once we arrived here we all gave each other a message: we are willing to kill one another. The same message we give when we live at or run a B&B. One of us is acting on that message, and we need to find that person. But on the way we're going to kill a lot of people. And I'm perfectly fine with hunting them based on who was most likely to miss, since this person who's killing us all isn't killing us all properly.

[Elenna]

One of us is acting on that message, and we need to find that person.

Except the reason we're killing people is because they didn't kill anyone last night.

...it sounded so much more reasonable before I phrased it that way

[gac3]

Guys... How ridiculous would it be if there were no wolves and this is about to be a hunger games last Man standing scenario

[The Outsider]

No worries. If we all threaten to commit suicide at once, they'll have to let us all win. Trust me, it worked last time.

[Xihirli]

As I recall, the only time we all won was when we found out we were all in the Illuminati.

I'm not saying that won't happen.

[Caerulea]

Guys... How ridiculous would it be if there were no wolves and this is about to be a hunger games last Man standing scenario

*Starts scribbling down notes*

[gac3]

I mean nobody died day one. From what I have seen, we have heard there is a madman and suddenly started killing people and electing a mayor.



... Or maybe we need to revisit the whole "night kill immunity" thing.

[Xenopax]

Just a quick pop in to say that I am existent!

[Xihirli]

Not for long!

[gac3]

If you do not post either in here, or in your quicktopic (should you have one) by the end of night two, you will be replaced by kgato503, if they are willing, or just autolynched.

.... Did anyone else notice this? Unless we just have some vanilla town, I'm trying to figure out the bold part.

I feel 99% sure that the vanilla town explanation is not the case.

[Valmark]

Except the reason we're killing people is because they didn't kill anyone last night.

...it sounded so much more reasonable before I phrased it that way

It's like Psycho Pass, we are doing prevention work.

.... Did anyone else notice this? Unless we just have some vanilla town, I'm trying to figure out the bold part.

I feel 99% sure that the vanilla town explanation is not the case.

Isn't it obvious? If you have a QT you can post there and not get auto-lynched.
Which doesn't mean you can not post here, you saw how it went down.

What I do want to know is, can you vote in the QT?

[gac3]

It's like Psycho Pass, we are doing prevention work.



Isn't it obvious? If you have a QT you can post there and not get auto-lynched.
Which doesn't mean you can not post here, you saw how it went down.

What I do want to know is, can you vote in the QT?

I meant more the "if you have one". Do people not have one? Why wouldn't someone have one.

[Valmark]

Well, Caerulea did say "should you have one", presumably it's possible someone doesn't have it.

[Xihirli]

Maybe the wolf has no QT and must get their target across subliminally.

[Silent_Interim]

....ugh. It has way too long since I've done forum WW, and I am very out of practice. The dynamics are so very different from doing it in-person.

I recognize in retrospect that my request for the medic to come out was fishy. Mea culpa on that: I'm extremely rusty. I'm also very used to in-person games, and so being able to perform pretty reliable gut checks on whether or not people are lying and such. This is, as you might imagine, requiring some re-adjustment from me. I agree that it is a tactically iffy move for the medic to reveal themselves at this juncture, although given that they know whether or not they stopped an NK... I dunno. If the consensus is no, then ignore me, I'm making everything up from scratch as I go.

I do maintain that it's probably not one of the inactive posters, but I'm willing to sacrifice one of them to prove that theory. I think that, if we lynch one of them and they turn up town, then we should look to the wagons on them for suspects next. I'm especially keeping an eye on the people who actively advanced the theories rather than passively following the wagon.

If someone doesn't have a QT, it's probably because they don't have a night action. Or maybe the narrator is just, like, messing with us and everyone's got a QT, night action or no. Who knows! Not me.

[Grek]

Okay, so Xenopax has shown up. flyinglemur, do you exist?

[gac3]

Okay, so Xenopax has shown up. flyinglemur, do you exist?

They also checked in.

[Valmark]

....ugh. It has way too long since I've done forum WW, and I am very out of practice. The dynamics are so very different from doing it in-person.

I recognize in retrospect that my request for the medic to come out was fishy. Mea culpa on that: I'm extremely rusty. I'm also very used to in-person games, and so being able to perform pretty reliable gut checks on whether or not people are lying and such. This is, as you might imagine, requiring some re-adjustment from me. I agree that it is a tactically iffy move for the medic to reveal themselves at this juncture, although given that they know whether or not they stopped an NK... I dunno. If the consensus is no, then ignore me, I'm making everything up from scratch as I go.

I do maintain that it's probably not one of the inactive posters, but I'm willing to sacrifice one of them to prove that theory. I think that, if we lynch one of them and they turn up town, then we should look to the wagons on them for suspects next. I'm especially keeping an eye on the people who actively advanced the theories rather than passively following the wagon.

If someone doesn't have a QT, it's probably because they don't have a night action. Or maybe the narrator is just, like, messing with us and everyone's got a QT, night action or no. Who knows! Not me.

To be honest I find more suspicious you saying that it was a bad move because you are rusty and you said a suspicious thing. I feel like a wolf is more likely to worry about sounding suspicious.

Aside from that, I don't think that if Xenopax or Flying results town then we should turn to the ones who were pushing for that theory. On one side, yes, it could've been the wolves' objective to make us suspicious of them... On the other side, I think it's both an unwise move for the wolves to make 'cause more people favors town and we really only have a 50% chance to get it right if only one of them is a wolf.

On the QT thing... Honestly, I feel like Caerulea is just bluffing, but it could be true that there is no QT.

Okay, so Xenopax has shown up. flyinglemur, do you exist?

Well, Flying had already shown up (though they only posted once to vote in self-defence)

[gac3]

I feel, with each passing game, I understand it less.

[flyinglemur]

Yes, I am here. And for the record, I posted before xenopax did.

[Grek]

Didn't spot that. Vote retracted.

[gac3]

Didn't spot that. Vote retracted.

So does that mean you are back to Xenopax?

[Grek]

As it stands, I'm not voting for anyone. FOS on Xenopax (they still haven't contributed anything) and Silent_Interim (see Valmark's post), but I'm not sure enough about either to vote.

[Caerulea]

In the spirit that it's getting late, it's christmas eve (for me), and gitp is lagging very, very, badly, the day will end in 55 minutes. I apologise for the inconvenience, and for not announcing it earlier (I was with family), but I want to ensure I can go to sleep at a reasonable time. Please submit your votes by 23:00 EST.

[Elenna]

I don't agree that it's necessarily suspicious that SI said they were suspicious. Personally, even when I'm town I have some idea of how suspicious I currently look just because I don't want town to waste a lynch on me. And when multiple people say your idea is anti-town, it doesn't exactly take a lot of thought to realize they might suspect you.

That being said, I still think SI is suspicious for posting the anti-town plan in the first place...
Leaving my vote where it is for now because lemur saying that they forgot to post D1 kinda does make me wonder if they also forgot to act N1... I'm also fine with the Xenopax lynch, though, if only because based on their actions so far they seem less likely to contribute in the future than lemur does.