Harry Potter Werewolf

[Captain Cap]

Sorry for the lateness, have been busy.

Am I missing something? Besides claiming in a game without roles known (which isn't a bad move if ALL do so, I think) you are claiming as a character from another series, google tells me. Like, what?

Should elaborate on the first point. You are making a claim right off the bat, with people having no reason to trust you besides not seeing a counter-claim which may not come if you fake the role you claimed.

Also, assuming Google isn't wrong, this claim strikes me as false also because, well, wrong series. Anything to say?

It seems that Valmark started with the art of "writing a lot about unimportant matters". I'm keeping an eye on you, Valmark, no ... I'm not holding a grudge for the last time ... when you shattered my trust in you ... no, don't worry.

It's not that I don't like day 1. You need a day 1 to get a day 2. Except in that one game that was out of order that one time, but that's beside the point. I'm just really bad at day 1.

And the rng machine says Snowblaze, so I guess I'm with AV on forcing her to update her sig.

Jumping on a vagon for RNG reason, like others already pointed out. Suspicious, but maybe too blatant.

If Valmark is a wolf, he and I have definitely cooked up these interactions in our private thread. I love me a bit of meticulously planned Scum Theatre.

It's settled then, you and Valmark are wolves.

I'm going to note that while Mrs McGinty is basically acting the same way she did last time, that kind of playstyle adapts quite well to both town and wolf: it could be part of a masterful strategy that crosses multiple games.

For now I'm going with Valmark, maybe I'll change later for more meaningful options.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: Current Vote Count

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Snowblaze 3 (Duck999, gac3, AvatarVecna)
Caerulea 2 (flat_footed, Snowblaze)
JoyWonderLove 1 (Xihirli)
JeenLeen 1 (Caerulea)
flat_footed 1 (kgato503)
AvatarVecna 2 (Mrs McGinty, DukeGod)
Duck999 2 (CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark)
DukeGod 1 (JeenLeen)
Mrs McGinty 1 (Lord Athos)
Valmark 1 (Captain Cap)
Posted without voting: JoyWonderLove
Didn’t post: flyinglemur

@JoyWonderLove, I see you're not voting. Why is that? Got any suspicions yet?

I think I'll try putting some pressure on Caerulea. No-one's really pinging my radar, so let's see what happens when I go for someone flying under it.

[AvatarVecna]

Pressure-vote sounds good to me, although might be good to poke our remaining inactive at some point. Will probably switch off is Caerulea shows up to contribute more, though.

[Valmark]

It seems that Valmark started with the art of "writing a lot about unimportant matters". I'm keeping an eye on you, Valmark, no ... I'm not holding a grudge for the last time ... when you shattered my trust in you ... no, don't worry.

You know how it is, you need to... Uh... Break a bone to put it back together?
Not sure where I was going with this.

Threw me for a loop too when I read the definition.

I'm curious now- I can't seem to find a definition.

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Also @Captain, you quoted one of the posts where I was talking about the game, hironically, instead of a post where I was joking or something :p

[JoyWonderLove]

Spoiler: Current Vote Count

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Snowblaze 3 (Duck999, gac3, AvatarVecna)
Caerulea 2 (flat_footed, Snowblaze)
JoyWonderLove 1 (Xihirli)
JeenLeen 1 (Caerulea)
flat_footed 1 (kgato503)
AvatarVecna 2 (Mrs McGinty, DukeGod)
Duck999 2 (CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark)
DukeGod 1 (JeenLeen)
Mrs McGinty 1 (Lord Athos)
Valmark 1 (Captain Cap)
Posted without voting: JoyWonderLove
Didn’t post: flyinglemur

@JoyWonderLove, I see you're not voting. Why is that? Got any suspicions yet?

I think I'll try putting some pressure on Caerulea. No-one's really pinging my radar, so let's see what happens when I go for someone flying under it.

This is my second game, but I thought as town we were supposed to be slowing things down (not jumping on people in groups, like they're doing to you) and trying to piece information together? I don't really know who to vote for yet and I'd rather not attack someone innocent. It's not helpful. How long do we have until the day vote closes?

Also, I got a PM from someone yesterday. I'm guessing that person is the role they asked me if I was? They're smart enough to do that kind of thing, but again, I'm not sure what's normal and what's not in this game.

[Valmark]

How long do we have until the day vote closes?

There should be... 16 hours? My converter tells me it's around 7 AM there

[JoyWonderLove]

It seems that Valmark started with the art of "writing a lot about unimportant matters". I'm keeping an eye on you, Valmark, no ... I'm not holding a grudge for the last time ... when you shattered my trust in you ... no, don't worry.

I'm going to note that while Mrs McGinty is basically acting the same way she did last time, that kind of playstyle adapts quite well to both town and wolf: it could be part of a masterful strategy that crosses multiple games.

On a totally shallow point, Valmark has a name like Denmark. And everyone loves Denmark. So common sense says, then, that Valmark is innocent.

I agree that Mrs McGinty seems more like a broad reaching approach? She's saying a lot of things that you wouldn't say unless you want to draw attention to yourself, or you want to give yourself a smokescreen, or she's just having a lot of fun regardless. So I can't tell right this second, but I think we should be leaning towards innocent until proven guilty with everyone to start. Again, we slow the game down, we gather info, we make better decisions.

There should be... 16 hours? My converter tells me it's around 7 AM there

Fantastic. Ty.

Spoiler: Current Vote Count

Show

Snowblaze 3 (Duck999, gac3, AvatarVecna)
Caerulea 2 (flat_footed, Snowblaze)
JoyWonderLove 1 (Xihirli)
JeenLeen 1 (Caerulea)
flat_footed 1 (kgato503)
AvatarVecna 2 (Mrs McGinty, DukeGod)
Duck999 2 (CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark)
DukeGod 1 (JeenLeen)
Mrs McGinty 1 (Lord Athos)
Valmark 1 (Captain Cap)
Posted without voting: JoyWonderLove
Didn’t post: flyinglemur

Ok, if I can do some blind analysis, AV might be partially voting for Snowy because he has two votes on him, in addition to whatever actual reasons he has. Snowy is putting some pressure on Caerula to get some info, which I think is a good sign of potential innocence. She could have just voted for AV if she was an actual bad guy.

I think there's bare basic evidence for us to step away from grouping up on anyone atm.

[Captain Cap]

Also @Captain, you quoted one of the posts where I was talking about the game, hironically, instead of a post where I was joking or something :p

That's the point, my friend (enemy?), it's a post about the game without real substance: are you purposely filling post to appear town?

EDIT: I realized just now that the day ends at 11 PM instead of AM. I wasn't that late then.

[JeenLeen]

The heat on Snowblaze has dispersed.
I'm not certain, but I'm worried Snowblaze might be a wolf and the wolves have slowly done damage control. How she's acted is how she acted as a wolf, but it's also how she said she'd act as Town--so null read. Regardless, I'm going to move my vote to Snowblaze to put them back in the lynching position. Even if it's a mistake, their death should yield intel on who is town and who wolf.

Also, I got a PM from someone yesterday. I'm guessing that person is the role they asked me if I was? They're smart enough to do that kind of thing, but again, I'm not sure what's normal and what's not in this game.

Was it AvatarVecna? She seems to try networking with folk and soliciting what info they'll give. It's normal for her, and what she's done when Town. But I wouldn't put it past her doing it as a wolf (or neutral), either.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Caomhin's post has significantly villainous overtones.

Uhh, explain?

I feel very misrepresented. No matter what my beliefs actually are, you could at least quote correctly what I say they are. First of all, I did show up and vote day 1 last game. I was only so late because I got my role PM and then didn't notice the game begin and promptly forgot for a hot second. Secondly, my point is not against day 1 or voting on day 1. It's against the heavy analysis and strong reads people often form on day one. You can have reads, but I would hesitate to call any strong.

If I misrepresented you, sorry - my initial vote was just to have a vote out there, the reasoning of "doesn't like day 1" wasn't serious. But the fact that it contributed to a really early wagon is why I am keeping it there for now.

How long do we have until the day vote closes?

BEGIN DAY 1. It will end at 11 PM EST on April 21st.

As of this post, it's about 14 hours (and 10-15 minutes) until deadline. Plenty of time for votes to change, but I won't be around for the last few hours of the Day myself. No idea what time it ends for other people (I'm EST) so not sure who will be on to make last minute changes.

[JoyWonderLove]

The heat on Snowblaze has dispersed.
I'm not certain, but I'm worried Snowblaze might be a wolf and the wolves have slowly done damage control. How she's acted is how she acted as a wolf, but it's also how she said she'd act as Town--so null read. Regardless, I'm going to move my vote to Snowblaze to put them back in the lynching position. Even if it's a mistake, their death should yield intel on who is town and who wolf.

Was it AvatarVecna? She seems to try networking with folk and soliciting what info they'll give. It's normal for her, and what she's done when Town. But I wouldn't put it past her doing it as a wolf (or neutral), either.

About Snowy......call it frenemy courtesy, call it intuition, call it just being nice.....but I don't think Snowbluff is guilty. Not based on what everyone has said, at least.

You're totally correct about AV, though. The fact that that's normal is a good sign? Maybe town. Did Elena say we had neutrals in this game?

[Snowblaze]

The heat on Snowblaze has dispersed.
I'm not certain, but I'm worried Snowblaze might be a wolf and the wolves have slowly done damage control. How she's acted is how she acted as a wolf, but it's also how she said she'd act as Town--so null read. Regardless, I'm going to move my vote to Snowblaze to put them back in the lynching position. Even if it's a mistake, their death should yield intel on who is town and who wolf.



Was it AvatarVecna? She seems to try networking with folk and soliciting what info they'll give. It's normal for her, and what she's done when Town. But I wouldn't put it past her doing it as a wolf (or neutral), either.

You are making a mistake. And... why am I not surprised that AV is being AV?

About Snowy......call it frenemy courtesy, call it intuition, call it just being nice.....but I don't think Snowbluff is guilty. Not based on what everyone has said, at least.

You're totally correct about AV, though. The fact that that's normal is a good sign? Maybe town. Did Elena say we had neutrals in this game?

Thank you for your faith in me. I am actually innocent this game. As far as I know there could be neutrals. Certainly no-one's said there aren't. And I'd be very careful about trying to read AV.

[JeenLeen]

You are making a mistake. And... why am I not surprised that AV is being AV?

It does seem statistically unlikely that you'd be a wolf another game in a row, if RNG was used to determine wolf status. And if it wasn't, even more unlikely.
If you have anything in your defense (such as a claim you could possibly verify in the night actions), feel free to PM me.

But, just on the probability, I may consider shifting my vote. On the other hand, you survived 'til the end of the other games, so you dying D1 seems reasonable to let others play. And it would yield intel.

[Snowblaze]

It does seem statistically unlikely that you'd be a wolf another game in a row, if RNG was used to determine wolf status. And if it wasn't, even more unlikely.
If you have anything in your defense (such as a claim you could possibly verify in the night actions), feel free to PM me.

But, just on the probability, I may consider shifting my vote. On the other hand, you survived 'til the end of the other games, so you dying D1 seems reasonable to let others play. And it would yield intel.

Yes, true. I'd really rather not die, though. And I'm not claiming to anyone in private without a solid reason to trust them.

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Also, that's clearly statistical bias - if RNG determined who was a wolf, the probability of my being a wolf is completely independent of previous games.

Actually, I think I'll switch my vote to my main suspect, Valmark. As Captain Cap said, he has been posting a lot but without much actual game-related content. And then there's the slightly defensive reaction to Mrs McGinty's joking about their being wolf-buddies...

Not much to go on, but it's the best I've got right now.

[AvatarVecna]

It does seem statistically unlikely that you'd be a wolf another game in a row, if RNG was used to determine wolf status. And if it wasn't, even more unlikely.

You would argue with Gambler's Fallacy, since you and Snowblaze are, statistically speaking, both wolves.

Please ignore that half the reason to assume I'm town is because I wanna play wolf and RNGesus hates me recently for some reason.

[JeenLeen]

Yes, true. I'd really rather not die, though. And I'm not claiming to anyone in private without a solid reason to trust them.

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Also, that's clearly statistical bias - if RNG determined who was a wolf, the probability of my being a wolf is completely independent of previous games.

Actually, I think I'll switch my vote to my main suspect, Valmark. As Captain Cap said, he has been posting a lot but without much actual game-related content. And then there's the slightly defensive reaction to Mrs McGinty's joking about their being wolf-buddies...

Not much to go on, but it's the best I've got right now.

Yeah, that's fair. Well, Valmark only need 1 more vote to get lynched, so maybe you'll get your wish.
Actually, it'd be interesting to see if JoyWonderLove backs up his support of you with a vote. That could be interesting info if you, he, or Valmark either are revealed wolf.

So, JoyWonderLove, willing to put a vote to back up your belief?

the above is purposefully bold, not red. Not shifting my vote.

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You would argue with Gambler's Fallacy, since you and Snowblaze are, statistically speaking, both wolves.

Please ignore that half the reason to assume I'm town is because I wanna play wolf and RNGesus hates me recently for some reason.

And I have a Master's Degree in statistics!

[Snowblaze]

You would argue with Gambler's Fallacy, since you and Snowblaze are, statistically speaking, both wolves.

Please ignore that half the reason to assume I'm town is because I wanna play wolf and RNGesus hates me recently for some reason.

Technically I'm only 50% wolf by statistics. Does that make me a neutral?

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Yeah, that's fair. Well, Valmark only need 1 more vote to get lynched, so maybe you'll get your wish.
Actually, it'd be interesting to see if JoyWonderLove backs up his support of you with a vote. That could be interesting info if you, he, or Valmark either are revealed wolf.

So, JoyWonderLove, willing to put a vote to back up your belief?

the above is purposefully bold, not red. Not shifting my vote.

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And I have a Master's Degree in statistics!

...um, no. Valmark is on two votes, I'm on three. That means I still die because tie rules.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm curious now- I can't seem to find a definition.

Linkee loo

[Captain Cap]

It does seem statistically unlikely that you'd be a wolf another game in a row, if RNG was used to determine wolf status.

If RNG is reliable, everyone has the same chance to be a wolf in the running game, the past extractions don't matter: if I roll a fair coin 5 times and always get head, next time tail is not going to be more probable.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, fine. I'll be honest here. I completely agree that after surviving four games it would be fair to lynch me. However, lynching me would be a very bad idea for town. I might not be able to get on again before EOD, so it's do this now or take the risk. I'm role-claiming.

Okay, hardclaiming Miss Cackle. (That is the name, right? I never watched the TV series and I haven't read the books in years.)

Anyone spot the soft-claim hidden in the joke claim? No? Didn't think so. It was kind of subtle. Miss Cackle is the headmistress in the Worst Witch books, and I am the headmaster of Hogwarts, Albus Dumbledore.

I am the Seer. You really shouldn't lynch me.

Now please, please, please tell me there are protective roles out there and the wolves don't have an unblockable nightkill. Because there's a pretty high chance I'm dead otherwise.

[Valmark]

Linkee loo

I saw that one too- tecnically doesn't really explain why is it called "3x3"

If RNG is reliable, everyone has the same chance to be a wolf in the running game, the past extractions don't matter: if I roll a fair coin 5 times and always get head, next time tail is not going to be more probable.

This- assuming everyone has the chances it becomes roughly 50% chance. I think. I'm not working out the math.

[Captain Cap]

I am the headmaster of Hogwarts, Albus Dumbledore.

I am the Seer. You really shouldn't lynch me.

I think a Divination professor would fit better the role of the Seer, like Sybill Trelawney and the centaur whose name I don't remember.

This- assuming everyone has the chances it becomes roughly 50% chance.

More precisely, is M/N, where N is the total number of players and M the number of wolves.

[Valmark]

Now please, please, please tell me there are protective roles out there and the wolves don't have an unblockable nightkill. Because there's a pretty high chance I'm dead otherwise.

I'd like to point out that telling you this would be like painting a giant target on one's back. And you painting a target on your own back is no real reason to trust you, since if you are a wolf there is no actual reason for you to be afraid- while if you don't get killed you can just go "they probably thought I was defended" because one assumes there's at least one protective power in this game.

And you're smart enough to prepare it in advance.

So yeah, null at best, wolf at worst. I'm betting on null because you didn't otherwise feel like a wolf up to now.

[AvatarVecna]

I think a Divination professor would fit better the role of the Seer, like Sybill Trelawney and the centaur whose name I don't remember.

Seer role isn't about literally seeing the future, it's about spotting alignments. Dumbledore's good for that. Plus, it'd be kinda funny for the exact reasons behind this post, if Dumbledore the divination skeptic was the Seer and the actual in-universe Seer (Trelawney) was the Fool.

Not that I necessarily believe this claim, mind you. But it'd be funny.

[Valmark]

I think a Divination professor would fit better the role of the Seer, like Sybill Trelawney and the centaur whose name I don't remember.

Dumbledore supposedly reads minds though? In the books at least.
Not that you aren't right, just that it can make sense for Dumbly to be a Seer.

[Snowblaze]

Just one quick thing - it’s highly, highly likely that there is a Seer in this game, and it’s highly, highly likely that Albus Dumbledore is in this game. If either of those roles are not me, they can counter-claim and I’ll be lynched.

Of course, there’s a not insignificant possibility that a wolf will counter-claim to get the Seer lynched. But lynching any Seer claimant without proof is a Bad Idea.

Please don’t do it. If I’m a wolf, it’ll become clear soon enough if the real Seer or Dumbledore dies. Wolf!me would only be buying time here.

[Captain Cap]

If either of those roles are not me, they can counter-claim and I’ll be lynched.

If they counter-claim, they'd put themselves in a dangerous position.

[Valmark]

Just one quick thing - it’s highly, highly likely that there is a Seer in this game, and it’s highly, highly likely that Albus Dumbledore is in this game. If either of those roles are not me, they can counter-claim and I’ll be lynched.

Of course, there’s a not insignificant possibility that a wolf will counter-claim to get the Seer lynched. But lynching any Seer claimant without proof is a Bad Idea.

Please don’t do it. If I’m a wolf, it’ll become clear soon enough if the real Seer or Dumbledore dies. Wolf!me would only be buying time here.

It's a bastard game- there could be two Seers, as unlikely as it gets. Or someone like the Fool believing to be a Seer (I think that was the name anyway)

True, someone could counter-claim Dumbledore, but that would mean exposing themselves as Dumbledore- which could be a bad idea depending on the power they have. I know I wouldn't, seeing as you are the current lynch favorite. If you think you are dying either way, trying to out "famous" roles is something you could do.

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You know what, Snowblaze. This move reeks too much.

[AvatarVecna]

If they counter-claim, they'd put themselves in a dangerous position.

If they don't counter-claim, they risk letting a wolf in seer's clothing lead town around by the nose all game. Keeping quiet makes sense if they think it's a seer/fool setup, but not if they think it's a lone seer setup.

[JeenLeen]

If they don't counter-claim, they risk letting a wolf in seer's clothing lead town around by the nose all game. Keeping quiet makes sense if they think it's a seer/fool setup, but not if they think it's a lone seer setup.

If they counter-claim, they'd put themselves in a dangerous position.

If she's not truly the Seer, the Seer could scry someone Night 1 and form a network against Snowblaze. Then claim Day 2 when they have time to be safe and get Snowblaze lynched (or get lynched themselves.) So I think there's a way to keep a counter-claim away.

If I were a wolf, I'd claim but not make such a bold claim. Also, I would have taken up someone asking for a PM-claim (that is, what I asked her to do) before risking a public claim. But she did neither. So, as she is not acting like I think a wolf would act... I think she's legit.

All that said, I could really see Trelawney as a false seer and the centaur/Dumbledor as a real seer.

It's a bastard game- there could be two Seers, as unlikely as it gets. Or someone like the Fool believing to be a Seer (I think that was the name anyway)

True, someone could counter-claim Dumbledore, but that would mean exposing themselves as Dumbledore- which could be a bad idea depending on the power they have. I know I wouldn't, seeing as you are the current lynch favorite. If you think you are dying either way, trying to out "famous" roles is something you could do.

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You know what, Snowblaze. This move reeks too much.

And that reeks wolfish to me, Valmark. Albeit I'm mostly just moving my vote off of Snowblaze, loathe as I am to shift my vote this much Day 1.