Harry Potter Werewolf

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Just one quick thing - it’s highly, highly likely that there is a Seer in this game, and it’s highly, highly likely that Albus Dumbledore is in this game. If either of those roles are not me, they can counter-claim and I’ll be lynched.

Of course, there’s a not insignificant possibility that a wolf will counter-claim to get the Seer lynched. But lynching any Seer claimant without proof is a Bad Idea.

Please don’t do it. If I’m a wolf, it’ll become clear soon enough if the real Seer or Dumbledore dies. Wolf!me would only be buying time here.

I don't like the wording of the first paragraph, even if it's supposed to be from someone else's perspective.

The way I see this, it could go either way. Town seer wouldn't want to die and so would reveal. Wolf who may be lynched would want to draw out the Seer into a counter claim and make their death worth something.



I'm still too worried about this being actual Seer, so I really don't want to lynch Snow today.

[Captain Cap]

It's a bastard game- there could be two Seers, as unlikely as it gets. Or someone like the Fool believing to be a Seer (I think that was the name anyway)

True, someone could counter-claim Dumbledore, but that would mean exposing themselves as Dumbledore- which could be a bad idea depending on the power they have. I know I wouldn't, seeing as you are the current lynch favorite. If you think you are dying either way, trying to out "famous" roles is something you could do.

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You know what, Snowblaze. This move reeks too much.

There are definitely reasons to suspect Snowblaze, but isn't lynching her too precipitous at this point? To confirm or disprove the claim won't be too difficult in the next days, and if she's really the Seer, we lose a valuable ally.

[Valmark]

There are definitely reasons to suspect Snowblaze, but isn't lynching her too precipitous at this point? To confirm or disprove the claim won't be too difficult in the next days, and if she's really the Seer, we lose a valuable ally.

That's true, but I also have no better target. And just like I didn't like Gac3 voting someone 'cause they could be good wolves in a previous game I'm not going to avoid trying to lynch someone because they could be good townies, if there aren't better target.

It tecnically could also be considered self-defence since Snow was already voting me I guess, but I'm not worried about that. Me dying as Town should give people plenty to go after anyway

[Snowblaze]

There are definitely reasons to suspect Snowblaze, but isn't lynching her too precipitous at this point? To confirm or disprove the claim won't be too difficult in the next days, and if she's really the Seer, we lose a valuable ally.

This. Exactly. My wolf read on Valmark got an awful lot stronger; I can’t see why any townie would add a vote to someone for claiming Seer.

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That's true, but I also have no better target. And just like I didn't like Gac3 voting someone 'cause they could be good wolves in a previous game I'm not going to avoid trying to lynch someone because they could be good townies, if there aren't better target.

It tecnically could also be considered self-defence since Snow was already voting me I guess, but I'm not worried about that. Me dying as Town should give people plenty to go after anyway

There is a big difference between being a good player and having a good role. If you don’t lynch wolf!me and lynch a townie instead, that’s bad. But it’s not as bad as lynching town!me because that would be losing the most valuable role we have.

[Valmark]

This. Exactly. My wolf read on Valmark got an awful lot stronger; I can’t see why any townie would add a vote to someone for claiming Seer.

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There is a big difference between being a good player and having a good role. If you don’t lynch wolf!me and lynch a townie instead, that’s bad. But it’s not as bad as lynching town!me because that would be losing the most valuable role we have.

It's the context and way of claiming it that made me jump- claiming a high-priority role when you risk getting lynched while at the same time asking for confirmation of another relevant role (the... Medic? The one that protects) is a sufficiently good wolf move I think. At worst, you get lynched anyway, at best you get to survive and figure out a possible medic.

And yes, mislynching you would be worst then mislyinching someone else- if I already think you're wolf I'm willing to bet, since my istincts have been proven to be right on average.

[Snowblaze]

I wasn’t asking for confirmation - maybe you misinterpreted me, I was just hoping. Because I don’t want to die.

That being said, if you are town your instincts are wrong this time. And I don’t believe that you are.

[JeenLeen]

I read Snowblaze's earlier post NOT as asking for the medic/baner to reveal themselves (either publicly to to her privately), but rather asking them to protect her tonight as a seer-claimant.
So, Valmark, if you are Town, I think some of what you saw as brazenness (and wolfish info-gathering) was actually just misunderstanding.

That's part of why you shifting your vote to her looked so wolfish to me.

[Valmark]

Well, there's also to say that if I was a wolf this would be a pretty stupid move on my part. It's more likely to be wrong Town- there again, of course I'd say that about myself.

[Xihirli]

Someone claimed Seer? Better read back.

[Valmark]

I read Snowblaze's earlier post NOT as asking for the medic/baner to reveal themselves (either publicly to to her privately), but rather asking them to protect her tonight as a seer-claimant.
So, Valmark, if you are Town, I think some of what you saw as brazenness (and wolfish info-gathering) was actually just misunderstanding.

That's part of why you shifting your vote to her looked so wolfish to me.

I wouldn't call it brazeness, if she thinks she's gonna die there's literally zero risk involved. Could be a misunderstanding, yes.

[Xihirli]

Just one quick thing - it’s highly, highly likely that there is a Seer in this game, and it’s highly, highly likely that Albus Dumbledore is in this game. If either of those roles are not me, they can counter-claim and I’ll be lynched.

Of course, there’s a not insignificant possibility that a wolf will counter-claim to get the Seer lynched. But lynching any Seer claimant without proof is a Bad Idea.

Please don’t do it. If I’m a wolf, it’ll become clear soon enough if the real Seer or Dumbledore dies. Wolf!me would only be buying time here.

If they counter-claim, they'd put themselves in a dangerous position.

1-for-1 trade Seer for Wolf is a spectacular one for Hogwarts (town). If there is a Dumbledore, please stand up. I'm sure there is one.
Also I'm gonna agree with the person who said Valmark trying to kill an uncounterclaimed seer is something only a death eater or a psychopath would do. And I'm over here.

[Duck999]

I wouldn't call it brazeness, if she thinks she's gonna die there's literally zero risk involved. Could be a misunderstanding, yes.

That was very early to be confident enough for a fake claim. I don't necessarily fully believe Snowblaze, but in my experience, you generally don't lynch a seer-claimant until there's proof against them or more suspicion than there is right now.

I don't know if Valmark has been in this kind of situation before, but switching to Snowblaze there is incredibly sketchy. Seeing as my vote was on the seer claimant which is the opposite of where I want it, I'll be switching to Valmark.

[Snowblaze]

1-for-1 trade Seer for Wolf is a spectacular one for Hogwarts (town). If there is a Dumbledore, please stand up. I'm sure there is one.
Also I'm gonna agree with the person who said Valmark trying to kill an uncounterclaimed seer is something only a death eater or a psychopath would do. And I'm over here.

I never thought I’d find myself agreeing with you, but I do... there’s a first time for everything, I guess.

[Duck999]

1-for-1 trade Seer for Wolf is a spectacular one for Hogwarts (town). If there is a Dumbledore, please stand up. I'm sure there is one.

Note that this is 1-for-1 at worst. If this is a fake claim and someone counter-claims, we presumably have a baner somewhere to protect the seer tonight.

And I agree, there almost certainly is a Dumbledore role, which is a more direct role to counterclaim than seer, since we know there only would be one.

[Xihirli]

Here, allow me to recite the summoning chant for Dumbledore!

Wailing audible from the depths of the darkness so thick, be wrapped in the armor of Death itself and show yourself!

No wait that's dementors. Close.

[DukeGod]

I wouldn't expect counter claims so soon. If Sybil Trelawney IS in the game, then there's quite a good possibility the Seer gets wrong results just as often as correct results. Or just wrong results since random seers are never fun...

[Valmark]

Eh, I guess I'll hope to be wrong. There again, if the wolves play tactically, it's likely we'll both be dead by next day if Snow is indeed Town.

Later I'll post my thoughts on people- since my role will get confirmed they might actually be useful.

[Mrs McGinty]

[*]I'll probably give the wolves a few villager roles that they can safely fake-claim (i.e. roles that don't actually exist in the game) in order to prevent the game being broken by making everyone claim.

This seems like it could be important right now.

Does the character Snowblaze is claiming seem like one that wouldn't "actually exist in the game" unless put in as a cover role?

Uhh, explain?

It was 1.30am and I'd been on the brandy.

Honestly not sure what I saw, or even if I was actually serious.

[Snowblaze]

I may be slightly biased here, but definitely not.

[Valmark]

This seems like it could be important right now.

Does the character Snowblaze is claiming seem like one that wouldn't "actually exist in the game" unless put in as a cover role?

I may be slightly biased here, but definitely not.

I had forgotten about that, but I find unlikely that Dumbledore of all people would be a fake role- he is a major character after all. Not only that but if Voldemort is present as a role, Dumbledore should be.

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It is homewever something possible, although I didn't need more convincing.

[Xihirli]

If I were going to fake-claim Seer I’d name my character Firenze. Less likely to be in the game than Dumbledore, a good match to the idea of a Fool Trelawney.

[Mrs McGinty]

I'd say lynching a non-counterclaimed character that isn't likely to be a fake claim and who says they are a seer would seem unlikely to be a good move, but ymmv.

[gac3]

Hmm... So snowblaze is claiming seer...

Valmark is playing poorly... I'm still inclined to believe them town (due to having talked to them)...

Also somebody mentioned "the person who messaged me is probably the roll they asked if I was"

Since that person messaged presumably everyone, I bet they are who they claimed...

So I'm really wanting to move my vote to someone else. What is the next biggest waggon for someone who isn't Snowblaze or Vallmark?

[Valmark]

If I were going to fake-claim Seer I’d name my character Firenze. Less likely to be in the game than Dumbledore, a good match to the idea of a Fool Trelawney.

Lol, I had to google this. Wonder why in the italian translation they changed an italian name to another italian name.

Anyway:

Spoiler: Thought list

Show

Kgato, AV and Gac3 I think are more likely to be town- especially Gac3, I'd heavily trust them. This because I've talked to them in private and none of them seem to have lied when cross-referenced. Gac3's way of speaking suggests much more Town, but elaborating on this would mean revealing details they might not want known- thus, up to them.

DukeGod had the same thought process towards the counter-claim, or at least similar. This doesn't really prove anything, but it's the only thing I can note.

I was gonna say that Xihirli was oddly silent, but they came as soon as something interesting happened so no real comment.

Duck999 has the thing about piling on Snow for random's sake going against him, nothing else to add. Would be my second or third choice.

Nothing to comment on Snow- with that claim I don't think she'll survive past Night 2 if she's Town, but could survive as a Wolf if no one counter-claims. Assuming night kills don't get stopped or misdirected, of course.

Captain Cap was the first to poke at me with a reason- saying that I don't really say much when I make reasonings. Only qualm is, I was the first (or second) to make any kind of reasoning that wasn't joking, so it's uhm. Not really something to go on, though.

Ginty heavily strikes me as town- their behavior is completely coherent with previous game, acting in a wild way and provoking people to see their reaction then asking third parties to judge said reactions. Though this time around it was far more obvious, but that could be because we've already played a game together.

I think I'm too biased to judge Joy, she's been gathering my simpathy since the other game with every post. Didn't do anything incriminating that I can think of anyway.

Anyone else? No thoughts on.

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So I'm really wanting to move my vote to someone else. What is the next biggest waggon for someone who isn't Snowblaze or Vallmark?

I think AV has two votes on her? Though I'd prefer getting lynched then AV, she's the better player and I think she's Town.

[AvatarVecna]

I had forgotten about that, but I find unlikely that Dumbledore of all people would be a fake role- he is a major character after all. Not only that but if Voldemort is present as a role, Dumbledore should be.

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It is homewever something possible, although I didn't need more convincing.

Depends on what point in canon this is taking place in. Although given that Dumbledore is mentioned in the opening post of of the recruitment thread, it's safe to say that he's at least a potential role, and maybe even a likely one.

I think AV has two votes on her? Though I'd prefer getting lynched then AV, she's the better player and I think she's Town.

*sigh* You put so much effort into looking like a sloppy wolf, and what do people do? Assume you're lock town. smh my head

EDIT: Oh right, gotta vote the seer-sniper. Valmark.

[Lord Athos]

Moving from solo-wagoning Cao to solo-wagoning MMG isn't a huge change exactly. What are your thoughts on the Duck and Snowblaze wagons?

I never said it was a huge change, it just seemed like a reasonable thing to do, as I'm not convinced by either the Duck or the Snowblaze wagons.
The Duck Wagon seems to be based on history from a former game, which means nothing to me, and Snowblaze seems reasonable to me in her replies.

That said - my son needs to be brought to bed so I'll share more thoughts later

[JoyWonderLove]

Hmm... So snowblaze is claiming seer...

Valmark is playing poorly... I'm still inclined to believe them town (due to having talked to them)...

Also somebody mentioned "the person who messaged me is probably the roll they asked if I was"

Since that person messaged presumably everyone, I bet they are who they claimed...

So I'm really wanting to move my vote to someone else. What is the next biggest waggon for someone who isn't Snowblaze or Vallmark?

I was the one that mentioned the PM sent to me, and Jeen asked if it was AV at least a page ago. It was. But AV does this PM stuff every game? So they're playing normally for them. I'm not going to mention what role AV asked about, in case that's giving away a little too much information right now.

Instead of us focusing on Valmark (active player, level headed enough to say we're too nice to each other, gee thanks ) or Snowbluff (active, potential Seer, really bad if we lose her if she's being honest) why not vote for a totally inactive player? I don't think flyinglemur has actually said anything yet. No one loses anything if we vote for an inactive player, but we at least have more perspective for the back-forth debate. Yes, I'm still all about deescalation and calm right now. No one has done enough to say even with 90% 'wolf'.

[Lord Athos]

After reading all this, I'll change my vote to Valmark. Changing one's vote to a possible seer that is uncounterclaimed is indeed suspicious.
Not really much to say otherwise. Snowblaze has a point, if Fumbledore or the Seer end up dead, we know where to find a wolf in any case.

[AvatarVecna]

I was the one that mentioned the PM sent to me, and Jeen asked if it was AV at least a page ago. It was. But AV does this PM stuff every game? So they're playing normally for them. I'm not going to mention what role AV asked about, in case that's giving away a little too much information right now.

Instead of us focusing on Valmark (active player, level headed enough to say we're too nice to each other, gee thanks ) or Snowbluff (active, potential Seer, really bad if we lose her if she's being honest) why not vote for a totally inactive player? I don't think flyinglemur has actually said anything yet. No one loses anything if we vote for an inactive player, but we at least have more perspective for the back-forth debate. Yes, I'm still all about deescalation and calm right now. No one has done enough to say even with 90% 'wolf'.

I'm all for killing off inactives if they're gonna auto, cuz letting them auto only helps the wolves. But we're not at the point where they're gonna auto yet. Better to deal with the seer-sniper today, and then if we don't have good feelings about a wolf tomorrow, better to lynch the inactive than let them auto and accidentally lynch a useful villager.

[Valmark]

I'm all for killing off inactives if they're gonna auto, cuz letting them auto only helps the wolves. But we're not at the point where they're gonna auto yet. Better to deal with the seer-sniper today, and then if we don't have good feelings about a wolf tomorrow, better to lynch the inactive than let them auto and accidentally lynch a useful villager.

Hironically you are doing just that, lynching a useful player (well, that's subjective, I think of myself as useful at least) when there's an inactive player around.

There again, given the general reaction, I can't exactly blame you :p it'll be experience for next time.

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Instead of us focusing on Valmark (active player, level headed enough to say we're too nice to each other, gee thanks )

(Also no, I'm EEEEEEVIL)