WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Batcathat]

Would it help if I said that being in deadchat would help me aim my kill better? Since I can see who all yall suspect, but also I can get the opinions of people I know are town?

Probably a stupid or at least obvious question, but have you checked whether you could aim your kill at yourself?

[MerelBlackbird]

Hi!

This issue between Athedia and JeenLeen is reminiscent of my first MU game. A wolf and a town player acting like this, and I then townread both of them. I think it's possible that all of Athedia, JeenLeen, Cazero, are town, but it's not likely at this point.

Well. I would have voted AV to void this, but AV may be able to self target.

Athedia

Spoiler: Random Mafia-related thoughts I have no one to tell

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Someday I really want a mime game here, just to see what y'all do when the lynch is unsafe. Well, more unsafe.

All the times I've ever won a game of forum Mafia, I was roleplaying a black cat. Strange.

(I still want to get bladescape eventually, he's not quite himself this game, too certain on me for one).

(Arrggh, and I really believed Cao! I hate this crazy vote altering mechanic.)

I was a wolf in two MU games that nearly coincided with Hivemind, now I find myself lonely without people to run ideas by. Sometime I want to be a Mason.

[JeenLeen]

Vote-count (which I'm pretty sure is accurate but I might've missed someone):
JeenLeen (4): Book Wombat, Athedia, Batcathat, bladescape
Athedia (3): JeenLeen, Cazero, LetsGetKraken
Lentrax (1): Illven
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna

I'm not in the lead enough that I want to claim, but I'll give the 2nd half of my post. Which is my "okay, I kinda get lynching AV or Cazero, but would still rather get Athedia". Redacting some stuff that gives away my role. Also edited to leave my vote on Athedia.

Kraken, I know I still owe an ISO -- or at least a reread -- on BCH.

----

I wouldn't completely put it past AV that this is some sort of reverse psychology to make us not vote them (in which case it's kinda brilliant), but it does seem less likely.

I don't put it past AV as this being a wolf or serial killer trying to coast to endgame. The fact we haven't had 2 kills doesn't preclude a serial killer; if AV were one, I can see her not shooting N1 to avoid suspicion, and we have a jailer, a <my role>, and for all we know a <another role that can block a kill> going around.

::squints:: Would it be too much to have a lot of ways to block kills? I mean, maybe Murska did do a really good bus on Cazero, and Cazero is lying about his role. He hasn't said anything disproveable about his jail power's void (targeted self N1, didn't claim N2 target), so no way to disprove him... and jailers sometimes can't target themselves so that might be an inconsistency...
Does anyone else have a really specific role, like his claim? (Not asking you to put your role, just a yes/no.) So far we've seen vague names, besides Murska's; maybe Cazero's fakeclaiming, but picked something reasonable to Fallout yet he was pretty sure nobody else would have?

Athedia seems to have persuaded y'all about me, but a lot of this (besides slopppy play argument) is based on Cazero's alignment. <CUTTING OUT PART WHERE I VOTE CAZERO, LEAVING MY VOTE ON ATHEDIA>
If he does flip wolf, I understand if y'all still wanna kill me, but it'll clear Athedia.

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EDIT/NINJA'd: votecount is now 4 vs 4 on me vs. Athedia. Ninja'd by Merel's vote.

[Athedia]

"Jeen, I will admit to suspecting Cazero far more than you. But Cazero claimed a role that I want to see if I can observe tonight. I won't role claim but I will say my role has been in front of everyone since literally my first post this game. Though let us look at who suspects me, the two I suspect of being a wolf. The one I suspected last round. And Merel, who while lovely company is easy to overwhelm and be lead down false paths. Like she is right now. Though I am glad she is finally voting instead of waffling helplessly for a while. One note. If I die from this please make sure both Jeen and Cazero leave. It will be rather amusing to watch Jeen make excuses once I am revealed to be town."

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"To be clear I am happy to leave it at a tie. I mean it is worse for us in the long run but as I see it, either I die and JeenLeen and Cazero have to explain that and face some justice. Or I don't and one of them will have. Though I will concede that voting patterns might implicate Kraken. I will amend my wolf guesses to Murska/Cazero/JeenLeen/Kraken/Illven with one of them (obviously not Murska) being neutral or town. Probably Kraken as Illven just seems to have gotten tunnel vision."

She turned to her lone player.

"This may be the final hand."

She slowly laid out the four cards.

🃅🃏

Spoiler: Persolus

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🂪🃊

[Persolus]

I stand! That looks like a mighty fine hand to me.

[Batcathat]

"Jeen, I will admit to suspecting Cazero far more than you. But Cazero claimed a role that I want to see if I can observe tonight. I won't role claim but I will say my role has been in front of everyone since literally my first post this game. Though let us look at who suspects me, the two I suspect of being a wolf. The one I suspected last round. And Merel, who while lovely company is easy to overwhelm and be lead down false paths. Like she is right now. Though I am glad she is finally voting instead of waffling helplessly for a while. One note. If I die from this please make sure both Jeen and Cazero leave. It will be rather amusing to watch Jeen make excuses once I am revealed to be town."

The timing of this post is kind of funny to me. Just like an hour or two before, I thought about when Athedia was innocently accused (primarily by me ) in Mountain Time and how she got pretty salty about it and I felt like I hadn't seen much of that this game. Now, I usually try not to read into that sort of reaction very much, as it can depend a lot on out of game factors, but I will say it does calm my paranoia a bit.


(Of course, if it turns out to have been fake, my paranoia about Athedia will be tenfold next game )

[Let'sGetKraken]

Would it help if I said that being in deadchat would help me aim my kill better? Since I can see who all yall suspect, but also I can get the opinions of people I know are town?

This is fair and reasonable honestly but I still think we should try to hit a wolf today, sorry. If you can aim your kill at yourself, I'd recommend doing that.

I am increasingly concerned that the wolves are the less active players, possibly including Bladescape here, who I am literally never able to read correctly but like has come across as a bit wolfier for whatever reason? I need to look back at my thoughts on him D1 and D2.

[JeenLeen]

"Jeen, I will admit to suspecting Cazero far more than you. But Cazero claimed a role that I want to see if I can observe tonight. I won't role claim but I will say my role has been in front of everyone since literally my first post this game. Though let us look at who suspects me, the two I suspect of being a wolf. The one I suspected last round. And Merel, who while lovely company is easy to overwhelm and be lead down false paths. Like she is right now. Though I am glad she is finally voting instead of waffling helplessly for a while. One note. If I die from this please make sure both Jeen and Cazero leave. It will be rather amusing to watch Jeen make excuses once I am revealed to be town."

Nah; no excuses. It'd be a waste of a lynch and get us closer to LYLO, but I accept that's the path if you flip town.
If you die and flip town, town should 100% kill me or Cazero next Day. (Or scry one of us tonight.) Even if all three of us are town, we can't really proceed otherwise.
AvatarVecna, could you assist by killing me or Cazero, or do you need to be dead first?

"To be clear I am happy to leave it at a tie. I mean it is worse for us in the long run but as I see it, either I die and JeenLeen and Cazero have to explain that and face some justice. Or I don't and one of them will have. Though I will concede that voting patterns might implicate Kraken. I will amend my wolf guesses to Murska/Cazero/JeenLeen/Kraken/Illven with one of them (obviously not Murska) being neutral or town. Probably Kraken as Illven just seems to have gotten tunnel vision."

If I read the rules right -- and I admit I might've made a mistake again -- in the case of a tie, the first to reach the tied amount dies. So I'm sure you'd be happy to leave it as a tie, since that means I die.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Nah; no excuses. It'd be a waste of a lynch and get us closer to LYLO, but I accept that's the path if you flip town.
If you die and flip town, town should 100% kill me or Cazero next Day. (Or scry one of us tonight.) Even if all three of us are town, we can't really proceed otherwise.
AvatarVecna, could you assist by killing me or Cazero, or do you need to be dead first?



If I read the rules right -- and I admit I might've made a mistake again -- in the case of a tie, the first to reach the tied amount dies. So I'm sure you'd be happy to leave it as a tie, since that means I die.

It doesn't feel like LYLO and with a stated town-aligned killer in AV, this makes me feel like Athedia is the best betz though Jeen being this certain is... worrying.

[Batcathat]

It doesn't feel like LYLO and with a stated town-aligned killer in AV, this makes me feel like Athedia is the best betz though Jeen being this certain is... worrying.

This might just be me tunneling on Jeen, but I kinda suspect that he might be a wolf hoping to trade his own life for two townies (we vote Athedia now, she flips town and then Caz is either NK'd by AV or yeeted and also flips town). It's not ideal from a wolf perspective, but for someone already this suspected, it might not be a bad plan.

[Let'sGetKraken]

This might just be me tunneling on Jeen, but I kinda suspect that he might be a wolf hoping to trade his own life for two townies (we vote Athedia now, she flips town and then Caz is either NK'd by AV or yeeted and also flips town). It's not ideal from a wolf perspective, but for someone already this suspected, it might not be a bad plan.

I mean, we solve this by yeeting Jeen next.

Though your statement could also very well be a wolf defending a wolf partner is Cazero. Something to keep in mind.

[AvatarVecna]

I don't have to be dead to use my kill, it's just better to aim it using the feedback of people I know are town. It will hijack the yeet vote again, though.

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I literally can't NK.

[Batcathat]

I mean, we solve this by yeeting Jeen next.

Right, but my point was that Jeen might be setting us up to kill Caz afterwards, hence his "Yeah, if Athedia flips town you should totally kill me and Caz" logic. It's just a theory, of course, but also something worth keeping in mind.

[Athedia]

I stand! That looks like a mighty fine hand to me.

The dealer flipped over her hidden card, a nine of diamonds. As it was less than 17 she drew again.

🃅🃉🂧

Spoiler: Persolus

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🂪🃊

[/QUOTE]

"I am sorry, you did not beat the dealer I am afraid. Would you like to try again?"

Nah; no excuses. It'd be a waste of a lynch and get us closer to LYLO, but I accept that's the path if you flip town.
If you die and flip town, town should 100% kill me or Cazero next Day. (Or scry one of us tonight.) Even if all three of us are town, we can't really proceed otherwise.
AvatarVecna, could you assist by killing me or Cazero, or do you need to be dead first?



If I read the rules right -- and I admit I might've made a mistake again -- in the case of a tie, the first to reach the tied amount dies. So I'm sure you'd be happy to leave it as a tie, since that means I die.

"No in this one case the mistake is mine. I forgot that this was not left up to chance. However if you are concerned about wasting time, why not focus on someone else who might give you more information? All killing me will do is make you look guilty."


With that she put up a small sign at the table, strangely printed with a very specific message.

[Let'sGetKraken]

[QUOTE=AvatarVecna;25972482]I don't have to be dead to use my kill, it's just better to aim it using the feedback of people I know are town. It will hijack the yeet vote again, though.

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I'm super down to yeet you tomorrow, but right now I think we need the info flip from a leading wagon.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler

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My power is the ability to hijack the lynch with a giant pile of votes; upside is that I can use it while dead, downside is that the first time I use it, I have to target myself. Can you believe flat would give me that kind of power? It feels pretty bastard to require a self-kill, especially when he knows it's not actually a self-kill but I don't know that until after D1.

D1, Murska votes Cazero over Cao, at a time when we didn't know the lucky number shifted wagon-targets. That could easily have been one wolf saving another. D2, Cao claimed an info power unprompted while not even on the chopping block (he was "getting voted" but with the understanding that votes would be shifting away from him). I see I can use my power to take out Cao (since targeting myself shifts votes to him). Can you blame me for taking the shot? He looks pretty sus.

This is also why I had this reaction to finding out votes can be shifted:

Hehe

Hehe hehe

Ohohoho

I like this mechanic.

And is also why I asked this question:

Opinions on Cao?

As my first shot hijacked the yeet and took out a townie (an info power at that), I'm not entirely trusting my own aim right now. I would rather get help from people I can trust are town who maybe have more info than I do, and that means getting into dead chat as soon as possible.

If we're not dunking me today, I'd like to vote out Cazero.

[Athedia]

"Oh I would also push those who haven't spoken much. Honestly there should be a punishment for staying to quiet. It makes it so hard to play a fun game."

[Let'sGetKraken]

Right, but my point was that Jeen might be setting us up to kill Caz afterwards, hence his "Yeah, if Athedia flips town you should totally kill me and Caz" logic. It's just a theory, of course, but also something worth keeping in mind.

Ah, good point. Still pairs you with Cazero, though, to keep in mind.

Athedia, you have put so much effort into this that I genuinely feel bad about killing you. I'm sorry. You've been delightful.

[Athedia]

Ah, good point. Still pairs you with Cazero, though, to keep in mind.

Athedia, you have put so much effort into this that I genuinely feel bad about killing you. I'm sorry. You've been delightful.

"I do so hope you are a wolf my dear. Otherwise I shall have to hold a small grudge."

[Let'sGetKraken]

Spoiler

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My power is the ability to hijack the lynch with a giant pile of votes; upside is that I can use it while dead, downside is that the first time I use it, I have to target myself. Can you believe flat would give me that kind of power? It feels pretty bastard to require a self-kill, especially when he knows it's not actually a self-kill but I don't know that until after D1.

D1, Murska votes Cazero over Cao, at a time when we didn't know the lucky number shifted wagon-targets. That could easily have been one wolf saving another. D2, Cao claimed an info power unprompted while not even on the chopping block (he was "getting voted" but with the understanding that votes would be shifting away from him). I see I can use my power to take out Cao (since targeting myself shifts votes to him). Can you blame me for taking the shot? He looks pretty sus.

This is also why I had this reaction to finding out votes can be shifted:



And is also why I asked this question:



As my first shot hijacked the yeet and took out a townie (an info power at that), I'm not entirely trusting my own aim right now. I would rather get help from people I can trust are town who maybe have more info than I do, and that means getting into dead chat as soon as possible.

If we're not dunking me today, I'd like to vote out Cazero.

Can I ask what your win condition is, if you're up for sharing? This absolutely checks out though.

[bladescape]

(I still want to get bladescape eventually, he's not quite himself this game, too certain on me for one).

Make yourself less readable.

After seeing your wolf game properly last game your towngame is super easy to see.

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Idk why you're acting like you're about to die Ath. P sure Jeen is "technically" ahead still.

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Can I ask what your win condition is, if you're up for sharing? This absolutely checks out though.

AV has claimed a few times they don't know what their wincon is.

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99% sure AV is lying on something here but I cannot work out what rn so I'm gonna ignore it.

I do hate that there's someone who can hijack the yeet vote though. Re: Me not liking ruining the sanctity of day votes.

[Athedia]

Make yourself less readable.

After seeing your wolf game properly last game your towngame is super easy to see.

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Idk why you're acting like you're about to die Ath. P sure Jeen is "technically" ahead still.

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AV has claimed a few times they don't know what their wincon is.

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99% sure AV is lying on something here but I cannot work out what rn so I'm gonna ignore it.

I do hate that there's someone who can hijack the yeet vote though. Re: Me not liking ruining the sanctity of day votes.

"Because at the end of the day I am overly dramatic. Also I made the sign and did not want it to go to waste. Plus with all the yeets, you lot have been remarkably unwilling to play. And I do want players. Also Blade, it is a bastard game. I am pretty sure ruining sanctity is what those are about."

[AvatarVecna]

AV has claimed a few times they don't know what their wincon is.

flat even reacted to me mentioning it publicly by calling me a loser so I might've failed my wincon already.

[bladescape]

"Because at the end of the day I am overly dramatic. Also I made the sign and did not want it to go to waste. Plus with all the yeets, you lot have been remarkably unwilling to play. And I do want players. Also Blade, it is a bastard game. I am pretty sure ruining sanctity is what those are about."

I mean it's already ruined the sanctity like every day so far.

Spin the wheel and see who gets yote is a... fun game.

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flat even reacted to me mentioning it publicly by calling me a loser so I might've failed my wincon already.

Hi fight club

[Cazero]

And now I want to yeet AV, but she doesn't have a wagon.

[Batcathat]

I should be off to bed soon, so I probably won't be around more before EoD (it's at 6 AM my time and I'm too old to stay up that late but too young to get up that early). I think Jeen remains the best option

This, again.

[flat_footed]

Day 3 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[flat_footed]

The group has mostly turned away from gambling, instead preferring to keep to themselves. Fierce debate echoes across the Casino, dying down only when the familiar sounds of an approaching Securitron reach your ears, but thankfully not coming too close. It's obvious not all of your number are to be trusted, but no one can seem to agree on who. Food and water are easy enough to find here, and those that can force themselves to eat and drink.

All too soon, weariness begins to nag at your thoughts, another weight added to the many you bear. The approach of a Securitron startles you all to awareness, though it's noticeably larger than the other ones. The face that greets you on its screen is no longer a cartoon smile; a nightmare seems to glare down at you all.

The eyes focus on a single figure huddled away from the majority of the others, back turned. The Securitron tears forward, metallic parts screeching against each other as it bears down on the hapless figure. The man's head quirks, not even turning to face the robot as it comes close to running him over. "Not now Yes Man, are you trying to get me caught?!"

The pair of clawed hands lance forward, closing painfully around the man's midriff and jerking him several feet above the ground. Shock, followed by pain and terror show on his face. A veritable avalanche of numbers flicker across the Securitron's face in response, far eclipsing that which Yes Man's screen had shown.

Spoiler

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01010101 01110011 01100101 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01011001 01100101 01110011 00100000 01001101 01100001 01101110 00100000 01010011 01100101 01100011 01110101 01110010 01101001 01110100 01110010 01101111 01101110 00100000 01101000 01100001 01110011 00100000 01100010 01100101 01100101 01101110 00100000 01100100 01100101 01110100 01100101 01110010 01101101 01101001 01101110 01100101 01100100 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01100010 01100101 00100000 01100001 00100000 01110011 01100101 01100011 01110101 01110010 01101001 01110100 01111001 00100000 01110100 01101000 01110010 01100101 01100001 01110100 00101110 00100000 01011001 01101111 01110101 01110010 00100000 01100001 01110100 01110100 01100101 01101101 01110000 01110100 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110011 01110000 01100101 01100001 01101011 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01101001 01110100 00100000 01110000 01110101 01110100 01110011 00100000 01001100 01110101 01100011 01101011 01111001 00100000 00110011 00111000 00100000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01110010 01101001 01110011 01101011 00101110 00100000 01000001 01101110 01111001 00100000 01110010 01101001 01110011 01101011 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01000011 01100001 01110011 01101001 01101110 01101111 00100000 01110111 01101001 01101100 01101100 00100000 01100010 01100101 00100000 01100101 01101100 01101001 01101101 01101001 01101110 01100001 01110100 01100101 01100100 00101110

Returning to the leering face, the Robot wastes no time in carting the man off to the rear of the Casino.

JeenLeen has been busted. They were Benny.

Night 3 has begun and will end in ~23 hours.

[AvatarVecna]

Didn't even bother with a votecount this time. I wonder if that means something.
Well, it probably means that the vote got completely hijacked, unlike my previous partial hijack.

[flat_footed]

No sooner had the pair disappeared, a door slamming open, followed by the sounds of a figure frantically running can be heard. A familiar face, bruised and dripping with sweat tears past tables and weaves through the machines before collapsing in the middle of your group. Shouts can be heard from where he came from, but they quickly move off in a different direction.

corncobweb has returned to the game.