WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Persolus]

Hello! I'd be down to play blackjack!

[Athedia]

I would strongly, strongly suggest not revealing your role names. I suspect Athedia needs to assign a certain number of titles to players to win, or else has a mechanism of shooting via roleguessing (though AV is a strong contender for that as well).

"I have told the truth this entire game. And I will tell it to you again. My role has no ability to kill. No benefit for knowing role names. No alternative win condition. And it is not effected by people sitting down and playing blackjack. I have no way to prove this of course, but none of you can prove your abilities to me either. I will point out that once a wagon had started on JeenLeen, Cazero was very quick to accuse me and draw attention away from Jeen."

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Hello! I'd be down to play blackjack!

"Wonderful! Give me a little for other parties to join and then I will deal out a hand!"

[Illven]

Wait, what? Sorry, are you talking about the types of roles that exist, or did I miss information (or are you claiming to know) that the only non-wolf killing roles in this game are vig and SK?

I meant in general.

At least as far as I'm aware there's three roles that can kill. (Although since I never played with the third I forgot it existed.) Vig, Serial killer, and then Feuder.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I meant in general.

At least as far as I'm aware there's three roles that can kill. (Although since I never played with the third I forgot it existed.) Vig, Serial killer, and then Feuder.

Gotcha. I've be careful at assuming those are the only types of killers that could potentially exist, but not something suspicious, then.

"I have told the truth this entire game. And I will tell it to you again. My role has no ability to kill. No benefit for knowing role names. No alternative win condition. And it is not effected by people sitting down and playing blackjack. I have no way to prove this of course, but none of you can prove your abilities to me either. I will point out that once a wagon had started on JeenLeen, Cazero was very quick to accuse me and draw attention away from Jeen."

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"Wonderful! Give me a little for other parties to join and then I will deal out a hand!"

Forgive me if I take "trust me bro" with a little grain of salt, given the type of game we're playing. I don't think you're a wolf necessarily, but in-game I trust you about as far as I can throw you. And my monitor's pretty heavy.

No vote for now.

How do people feel about BCH?

[Athedia]

Gotcha. I've be careful at assuming those are the only types of killers that could potentially exist, but not something suspicious, then.



Forgive me if I take "trust me bro" with a little grain of salt, given the type of game we're playing. I don't think you're a wolf necessarily, but in-game I trust you about as far as I can throw you. And my monitor's pretty heavy.

No vote for now.

How do people feel about BCH?

"No hard feelings. Same here and my monitor is actually a stand with 4 screens. Just laying out my cards. Annoyingly I have been attempting to use my power each time I can and have gotten nothing so far. As for BCH, unknown honestly, I wasn't focused on him."

[Batcathat]

How do people feel about BCH?

I've heard he can bench-press trains and is handsome enough to melt anyone who dares gaze upon him.

[AvatarVecna]

Quick reminder, for those at home who are scratching their heads about the supposed vig claim. Here's my "vig claim" in its entirety:

*waves a gun around*

Who keeps giving me these? This isn't funny.

This is, apparently, a strong enough vig claim that if I ever claim to not be a vig, it's a good argument for immediately killing me for "lying about being a vig". Or at least, it's that strong that it warrants killing me if I "walk it back", according to Murska (dead wolf) and Illven (who I'm sure is very trustworthy).

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That being said, if it's all the same for y'all, I'd actually like to get dunked today. So "jk lol" and AvatarVecna.

If it sweetens the deal, I promise I'm not a beast of any kind, and that I'm actually a town-aligned neutral, so my death won't advance us towards LYLO (or at least, advances us slower than if we yeeted a real townie).

[Athedia]

Quick reminder, for those at home who are scratching their heads about the supposed vig claim. Here's my "vig claim" in its entirety:



This is, apparently, a strong enough vig claim that if I ever claim to not be a vig, it's a good argument for immediately killing me for "lying about being a vig". Or at least, it's that strong that it warrants killing me if I "walk it back", according to Murska (dead wolf) and Illven (who I'm sure is very trustworthy).

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That being said, if it's all the same for y'all, I'd actually like to get dunked today. So "jk lol" and AvatarVecna.

If it sweetens the deal, I promise I'm not a beast of any kind, and that I'm actually a town-aligned neutral, so my death won't advance us towards LYLO (or at least, advances us slower than if we yeeted a real townie).

"So my confusion about any vig was fair and it wasn't intentional. Okay I feel a little better now. Which... why was Illven buying in so deep on it. I can see Illven, Murska, Jeen and Cazero on a wolf team together. Also sorry AV, but why would you like to get dunked?"

[Cazero]

"I can see Illven, Murska, Jeen and Cazero on a wolf team together."

That would be too many wolves IMO.

[Athedia]

That would be too many wolves IMO.

"A little under 25%. That seems pretty average to me?"

[AvatarVecna]

"So my confusion about any vig was fair and it wasn't intentional. Okay I feel a little better now. Which... why was Illven buying in so deep on it. I can see Illven, Murska, Jeen and Cazero on a wolf team together. Also sorry AV, but why would you like to get dunked?"

Looks fun!

[Persolus]

Quick reminder, for those at home who are scratching their heads about the supposed vig claim. Here's my "vig claim" in its entirety:



This is, apparently, a strong enough vig claim that if I ever claim to not be a vig, it's a good argument for immediately killing me for "lying about being a vig". Or at least, it's that strong that it warrants killing me if I "walk it back", according to Murska (dead wolf) and Illven (who I'm sure is very trustworthy).

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That being said, if it's all the same for y'all, I'd actually like to get dunked today. So "jk lol" and AvatarVecna.

If it sweetens the deal, I promise I'm not a beast of any kind, and that I'm actually a town-aligned neutral, so my death won't advance us towards LYLO (or at least, advances us slower than if we yeeted a real townie).

a "town-aligned neutral"?

As opposed to a wolf-aligned neutral?

Doesn't neutral just mean, y'know, neutral?

[Athedia]

a "town-aligned neutral"?

As opposed to a wolf-aligned neutral?

Doesn't neutral just mean, y'know, neutral?

"Not always, you have neutrals that can still win if wolves win. Or have no reason to go against town. It is just they don't need to die for the game to end."

[Cazero]

That would be too many wolves IMO.

Wait, you counted the dead Murska in your list. Objection retracted.

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a "town-aligned neutral"?

As opposed to a wolf-aligned neutral?

Doesn't neutral just mean, y'know, neutral?

Neutral design can be tough. Sometimes they have nothing to lose and everything to gain to just play with town even though they win separately.

[Persolus]

"Not always, you have neutrals that can still win if wolves win. Or have no reason to go against town. It is just they don't need to die for the game to end."

ohhh true. i was used to thinking the default neutral was "survivor" - i.e. true neutral, doesn't take away from anyone else - or "serial killer" - chaotic neutral, takes away from *everyone* else.

[AvatarVecna]

a "town-aligned neutral"?

As opposed to a wolf-aligned neutral?

Doesn't neutral just mean, y'know, neutral?

"Town Aligned Neutral" is all I've been informed of. I wasn't kidding when I said flat hadn't given me a wincon.

[Illven]

.....

.....

Kraken. Feel free to not answer, but what's your alignment?

[AvatarVecna]

When I'm not on mobile I'm gonna check to see if my role name has come up inthread yet. Odds are low, but not zero.

[Let'sGetKraken]

.....

.....

Kraken. Feel free to not answer, but what's your alignment?

My alignment? I hate to shoot down whatever theory you have here, but I am Town. Sorry.

[AvatarVecna]

When I'm not on mobile I'm gonna check to see if my role name has come up inthread yet. Odds are low, but not zero.

Was basically a coinflip, but the coin landed on the other face. My role name's not come up.

[bladescape]

That would be too many wolves IMO.

4 seems about right to me?

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Was basically a coinflip, but the coin landed on the other face. My role name's not come up.

Guess we flush that theory then.

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JeenLeen

I think Athedia is town now as well.

Though I disagree with their Caz read.

AV, why do you wanna die?

[AvatarVecna]

4 seems about right to me?

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Guess we flush that theory then.

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JeenLeen

I think Athedia is town now as well.

Though I disagree with their Caz read.

AV, why do you wanna die?

General principle. We've got a vig claim, and a seer who died due to obvious sabotage. Really it's surprising that I'm the one who's gotta get the "check the vig claim" wagon rolling. Additionally, as mentioned, losing a neutral is a better idea for town than gambling on an unknown and yeeting a townie.

Would it help if I actually took credit for the kill? I mean, blame for the kill?

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Oh if you want the fun of guessing the rolename...

Spoiler: Hint

Show

Dangerous search

[bladescape]

General principle. We've got a vig claim, and a seer who died due to obvious sabotage. Really it's surprising that I'm the one who's gotta get the "check the vig claim" wagon rolling. Additionally, as mentioned, losing a neutral is a better idea for town than gambling on an unknown and yeeting a townie.

Would it help if I actually took credit for the kill? I mean, blame for the kill?

... What?

Are you saying you caused the votes on Cao?

[JeenLeen]

General principle. We've got a vig claim, and a seer who died due to obvious sabotage. Really it's surprising that I'm the one who's gotta get the "check the vig claim" wagon rolling. Additionally, as mentioned, losing a neutral is a better idea for town than gambling on an unknown and yeeting a townie.

Would it help if I actually took credit for the kill? I mean, blame for the kill?

Cao wasn't a seer seer, but seeing power roles. Or at least that's what he claimed, right? That's not nearly as powerful as a seer.
Are you saying you did do whatever happened D2 (something screwing with the votes) that led to Cao dying instead of whoever should have?

Of course we'd rather lynch a neutral than a townie, especially if you're honest about being town-leaning and that part of your power works when dead.
But there's opportunity cost.

First cost: not getting a wolf.
I still got a feeling Athedia's a wolf. I think she made a bold move today (voting Caz), panicked some at my retort, and then is capitalizing on some mistakes I made (voting near end of D2, misunderstanding vote crossouts).
And, yes, I realize this is what she's accusing me of: being a wolf scrambling to make some defense. But perhaps that was on her mind because that's what she's doing?

Second cost: no real intel.
Town might be better off lynching Athedia, Cazero, or me. Gives info at least about others' alignment. If Athedia seems suspicious to you, vote her. If Caz or I do... well, analysis-wise I lean voting Cazero because Athedia's argument for me seems to be "Cazero and I are scumbuddies", and her argument for Caz being a wolf is Murksa voted him.
Given Cazero's claim, I can understand if folk want to test things on me rather than him. My power is good, but not as potentially useful as Jailer.
But, really--especially if I take a step back and look at it objectively, ignoring I'm one of the potential lynchees--it seems to boil down to 3 good options today:

• Lynch Athedia. If she's wolf, clears me/Cazero. If she's town, maybe there is a vig that can kill one of us or a seer that could confirm. If not, lynch me or Caz next Day.
• Lynch Cazero. If he's wolf, clear Athedia and mislynch me (I get I look too wolfy if Caz flips wolf, so no hard feelings there). If he's town, lynch Athedia.
• Lynch JeenLeen. If I'm wolf, clear Athedia and makes sense to lynch Cazero. When I flip town, lynch Athedia.

What is possible but bad if is all three of us are town, but, well, that's why I'd hope a seer or vig (preferably seer) would clear me if Athedia dies today and flips town.

With any of these, between this Day and next Day, we hopefully lynch a wolf and clear at least one townie. If things go as I expect and hope, it'd be lynch Athedia (wolf) and clear me and Cazero this Day. But I reckon we're early enough in the game, and with 1 dead wolf already, we can afford a mislynch today.

How do people feel about BCH?

From D1, a slight townlean. He found and shared flat's dice-roll thread. A wolf can be helpful if the helpful thing is eventually going to get discovered anyhow; that tidbit was unlikely to be discovered. So sharing it publicly gave me a townlean to him.

But my townlean's gotten weaker since then. I'll try to reread him tomorrow. I'm not super feeling a BCH wagon, but not super opposed to it either. Unless you have a strong wolf read on him, I think it's better to stick in the Athedia/Jeen/Caz circle.

[AvatarVecna]

... What?

Are you saying you caused the votes on Cao?

Sure! Why not

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Honestly, is it really that unbelievable?

[initially was gonna make a case against myself here, but got bored collecting all the seeded evidence proving this lie. You should believe me when I say I killed Cao, and should not believe the me that wrote the previous sentence calling it a lie.]

[Athedia]

"Fun thing about committing to the bit. None of my actions are that of a panicked mind. I am town, won't share more of my role but I will share that much. I think AV is to desperate to die. Sorry, but that makes me not wish to vote for you. Though maybe the wolves will take pity? Also what about any of this has constituted scrambling for a defense. I thought I laid things out plainly. And for your information I base my suspicion on you mainly on the fact that you are not usually this sloppy."

She pushed her new glasses up her nose and flipped her freshly cut hair. When she had found time for either of those appointments no one would know.

"At least I have laid out theories and backed them up. And put a few names forth as potential wolves."

[Batcathat]

Not sure what to think about AV, but even if they're honest I feel like it's not in our best interest to kill them since that means we don't really learn anything about anyone else and start D4 where we're at right now, only presumably with one less townie (and one less town-siding neutral).

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I wouldn't completely put it past AV that this is some sort of reverse psychology to make us not vote them (in which case it's kinda brilliant), but it does seem less likely.

[JeenLeen]

I plan to claim in the next few hours if I stay the lead wagon.
Post is written, and I admit I have some reason to vote AV and Athedia's convinced me maybe it's good to vote Cazero. I still have a strong townread on Cazero, but I get the argument.

Post is not posted yet because:
Hey, inactives, can you post and weigh in on whether you trust me, Caz, or Athedia more after all this? I'd rather not give the wolves info on my power if I'm going to survive.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Any chance we can get a vote count from someone?

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I don't love the Jeen wagon. Cazero has a legitimate enough claim even if I don't trust him. I don't trust Athedia but I'm not convince she's a wolf. And AV... if this is all IC I don't think we should play along without a stronger case, and if it's OOC I would suggest a replacement player. We want to hit a wolf, and AV probably isn't one.

So all that boils down to.... I don't like any of the current wagons, but of them I like Athedia the most.

[AvatarVecna]

Would it help if I said that being in deadchat would help me aim my kill better? Since I can see who all yall suspect, but also I can get the opinions of people I know are town?