Stormcloaks Or Empire (One Of The Three Certainties Of Life)

[Batcathat]

Like I said before, I'm pretty sure Ulfric already knows that. It's just that it makes no difference. He's still right. What's he going to do, give up and accept the destruction of everything he values just because the Thalmor don't want him to?

If he thinks that another war with the Dominion is likely to happen in the not too distant future then yes, accepting a rather awful situation is better than the Imperial and Stormcloak forces grinding each other down to make things easier for the Dominion forces they're both likely to face in the next war.

If he thinks the Empire will literally never stand up against the Dominion (and the Dominion will never attack first), then his actions make sense, but that seems unlikely.

Fittingly, Ulfric is faced with a similar choice that he presented Torygg with. Do the thing that's "right" in some lofty moral sense or do the thing that's actually smart. And like Torygg, he seems to have picked the former.

[GloatingSwine]

If he thinks the Empire will literally never stand up against the Dominion (and the Dominion will never attack first), then his actions make sense, but that seems unlikely.

There's pretty good empirical evidence that the Empire will either not stand up to the Dominion again or do so worse than Skyrim could alone.

The Empire is a busted flush.

[veti]

If he thinks that another war with the Dominion is likely to happen in the not too distant future then yes, accepting a rather awful situation is better than the Imperial and Stormcloak forces grinding each other down to make things easier for the Dominion forces they're both likely to face in the next war.

If he thinks the Empire will literally never stand up against the Dominion (and the Dominion will never attack first), then his actions make sense, but that seems unlikely.

Fittingly, Ulfric is faced with a similar choice that he presented Torygg with. Do the thing that's "right" in some lofty moral sense or do the thing that's actually smart. And like Torygg, he seems to have picked the former.

Ulfric very much does not believe the Empire has what it takes to fight the Dominion. And that belief is, as I've been arguing for what feels like half a thread now, not baseless.

Look at the final dialogue with Tullius in the "Stormcloak victory" scenario. It's one of very few instances in Skyrim where the writing actually moves me:

Ulfric: "This is it for you. Any last words before I send you to Oblivion?"
Tullius: "You realize this is exactly what they wanted."
Galmar: "What who wanted?"
Tullius: "The Thalmor. They stirred up trouble here. Forced us to divert needed resources and throw away good soldiers quelling this rebellion."
Ulfric: "It's a little more than a rebellion, don't you think?"
Galmar: "Heh."
Tullius: "We aren't the bad guys you know."
Ulfric: "Maybe not, but you certainly aren't the good guys."
Tullius: "Perhaps you're right. But then what does that make you?"
Ulfric: "You just said it yourself."
Galmar: "It makes us right."
Tullius: "And if I surrender?"
Ulfric: "The Empire I remember never surrendered."

I think this little scene shows both sides at their best. Neither Tullius nor Ulfric is blind, but they're both convinced of their own rightness. Ulfric says "The Empire... never surrendered" - which implies that the Empire stopped being the Empire when it signed the Concordat. The Markarth Incident was Ulfric giving the Empire a chance to redeem itself, and it blew it - as it's blown every opportunity since to actually stand up to its new overlords.

I don't really see how you can expect Ulfric to put any faith in the Empire, after that.

[Batcathat]

I don't really see how you can expect Ulfric to put any faith in the Empire, after that.

Sure, Ulfric's reaction (and the Stormcloak rebellion in general) is quite understandable, I just don't think it's the smart choice, as every soldier killed during the civil war is one less to defend against the Dominion (and even if we assume the next war is far enough off for them to rebuild, it'll still probably leave them weaker than they would've been).

As for questions like how likely a united empire would be to eventually stand up against the Dominion or how capable an independent Skyrim would be of doing so, I think there are too many unknown variables to say for certain either way.

[Cikomyr2]

I believe that even if Titus Medes II's preparations over the past 25 years, the large army Ulfric fears would cross over from Cyrodill if he killed the Emperor personally, and all of these preparation actually succeeded in booting out the Thalmor from Tamriel and the Empire reinstated Talos's worship..

The Empire would still be heading on a path toward its own oblivion.

[druid91]

This is true, but it's also irrelevant. The Legions might think that a war with the Dominion is coming but the more likely option for an Imperial victory in the civil war is the Dominion working its way further and further into the Empire's power structures until the Empire can't resist anymore.

This is shown in Solitude, in that the Thalmor own or have the support of half the Jarl's court including Elisif, the Imperials own candidate for high queen.

[Keltest]

This is true, but it's also irrelevant. The Legions might think that a war with the Dominion is coming but the more likely option for an Imperial victory in the civil war is the Dominion working its way further and further into the Empire's power structures until the Empire can't resist anymore.

This is shown in Solitude, in that the Thalmor own or have the support of half the Jarl's court including Elisif, the Imperials own candidate for high queen.

Even the Imperials know that Elisif is not a strong or independent queen. She may or may not end up deferring entirely to Tullius during her reign as queen, but the Dominion being able to get in the good graces of her court means very little.

[druid91]

Even the Imperials know that Elisif is not a strong or independent queen. She may or may not end up deferring entirely to Tullius during her reign as queen, but the Dominion being able to get in the good graces of her court means very little.

Ah yes. The Dominion having a direct in with the power players of Skyrim as they cull the rebellious ones by pinning them with Talos worship, whether they are or not, and buying their replacements totally won't have a negative effect on the Empire.

[Keltest]

Ah yes. The Dominion having a direct in with the power players of Skyrim as they cull the rebellious ones by pinning them with Talos worship, whether they are or not, and buying their replacements totally won't have a negative effect on the Empire.

The Thalmor can't actually do that though. They can't even really competently do it to actual Talos worshipers. Ironically, you seem to be more afraid of the Thalmor than the Empire is. They aren't a joke, but they aren't a particularly large political risk either. The danger of the Dominion has always been their military, not their subterfuge.

[GloatingSwine]

The danger of the Dominion has always been their military, not their subterfuge.

Subterfuge is how the Dominion became the Dominion. They covertly supported one of the factions among the Bosmer and took over in a succession crisis/coup and claimed credit for the return of the moons after the Void Nights to use the Khajiit’s religion to dupe them into service (as there’s no actual evidence the Altmer had anything to do with the moons’ return beyond predicting it would happen)

The danger of the Dominion is political. They beat the Empire by aiming at a political weakness, they lost to a determined Hammerfell when the contest was one of arms above politics.

[Keltest]

Subterfuge is how the Dominion became the Dominion. They covertly supported one of the factions among the Bosmer and took over in a succession crisis/coup and claimed credit for the return of the moons after the Void Nights to use the Khajiit’s religion to dupe them into service (as there’s no actual evidence the Altmer had anything to do with the moons’ return beyond predicting it would happen)

The danger of the Dominion is political. They beat the Empire by aiming at a political weakness, they lost to a determined Hammerfell when the contest was one of arms above politics.

They beat the empire by invading it, crushing their armies and occupying their lands, what are you talking about?

[GloatingSwine]

They beat the empire by invading it, crushing their armies and occupying their lands, what are you talking about?

They beat the Empire by invading Cyrodiil. They didn't invade the whole Empire, just the soft bit where the political pressure to capitulate would be strongest.

[Keltest]

They beat the Empire by invading Cyrodiil. They didn't invade the whole Empire, just the soft bit where the political pressure to capitulate would be strongest.

Thats... no. They crushed the Empire's armies. They didn't pull a runaround by beating up their heartland to avoid having to fight their direct military might, they just marched in and tackled them directly.

[Batcathat]

The danger of the Dominion is political. They beat the Empire by aiming at a political weakness, they lost to a determined Hammerfell when the contest was one of arms above politics.

Unless I'm missing something, all we know for sure is that they reached a point where to keep fighting Hammerfell was no longer worth it. Was that point when they had used up literally every soldier not crucial to their defense? Perhaps, but it could just as easily have been that they decided that Hammerfell wasn't important enough to spend more than X amount of their forces there. There are plenty of examples of wars in the real world where one side gave up, despite having the ability to continue.

Again, we don't know enough details to say for certain, so let's not act as if either interpretation is uncontested truth.

[GloatingSwine]

Thats... no. They crushed the Empire's armies. They didn't pull a runaround by beating up their heartland to avoid having to fight their direct military might, they just marched in and tackled them directly.

You'll note they did not invade, occupy, or fight much against the armies of High Rock, Orsinium or Skyrim, still parts of the Empire at the time. (Not counting Morrowind because it was still largely ruined).

They fought the Imperial Legion in Cyrodiil and crushed its political will to resist without it mobilising all the forces that it should have been able to call upon from its vassal provinces. Instead of the Imperial government relocating to the provinces and continuing the fight with all of the power available to it, it capitulated.

And there is simply no argument that there was insufficient strength to resist in the provinces which stands up to the fact that the Dominion was unable to subdue Hammerfell fighting alone. There was not some great new threat that would divert the forces they had been fighting all of the Empire with, it does not take all of that force to garrison the border, they would have had a much greater proportional force advantage and still could not prevail.

Unless I'm missing something, all we know for sure is that they reached a point where to keep fighting Hammerfell was no longer worth it. Was that point when they had used up literally every soldier not crucial to their defense? Perhaps, but it could just as easily have been that they decided that Hammerfell wasn't important enough to spend more than X amount of their forces there. There are plenty of examples of wars in the real world where one side gave up, despite having the ability to continue.

Fighting past your opponent's will to continue is called winning a war, irrespective of what undermines that will. The Dominion lost the war against Hammerfell and left without anything it wanted from that province, whereas it got everything it demanded from the Empire. Also Hammerfell fought alone for longer than the Empire as a whole had done (5 more years after the end of the four year "great war").

The Empire lost because the government had insufficient will to fight. The Empire is the problem.

[Keltest]

You'll note they did not invade, occupy, or fight much against the armies of High Rock, Orsinium or Skyrim, still parts of the Empire at the time. (Not counting Morrowind because it was still largely ruined).

They fought the Imperial Legion in Cyrodiil and crushed its political will to resist without it mobilising all the forces that it should have been able to call upon from its vassal provinces. Instead of the Imperial government relocating to the provinces and continuing the fight with all of the power available to it, it capitulated.

And there is simply no argument that there was insufficient strength to resist in the provinces which stands up to the fact that the Dominion was unable to subdue Hammerfell fighting alone. There was not some great new threat that would divert the forces they had been fighting all of the Empire with, it does not take all of that force to garrison the border, they would have had a much greater proportional force advantage and still could not prevail.

The armies of High Rock and Skyrim are the Imperial Legion and they were fighting in Cyrodiil! We're flat out told as much in game! Thats where Ulfric got captured! They tried to pull the armies from Hammerfell too, which only had moderate success.

[Batcathat]

Fighting past your opponent's will to continue is called winning a war, irrespective of what undermines that will. The Dominion lost the war against Hammerfell and left without anything it wanted from that province, whereas it got everything it demanded from the Empire. Also Hammerfell fought alone for longer than the Empire as a whole had done (5 more years after the end of the four year "great war").

Sure, I'm not disagreeing that it was a victory for Hammerfell, just pointing out that the Dominion failing to conquer Hammerfell doesn't automatically mean that they would've lost a continued war against the entire Empire.

As for the Empire giving the Dominion literally everything they asked for, I absolutely agree that was a major loss for the Empire diplomatically and politically. I can sort of understand it if the Dominion was likely to win a continued war (in which case it could make strategic sense to accept even a deal like that to gain some time), but assuming they were as worn out as the Empire, they got kind of an insane deal. I'm frankly surprised there haven't been even more rebellions in the time since the Concordat (especially once it became apparent that it wasn't just something to endure for a few years).

[veti]

They beat the empire by invading it, crushing their armies and occupying their lands, what are you talking about?

They could never have beaten the Empire's armies unless they had first seduced Elsweyr and Valenwood to their side. And let's not forget the (near-)annihilation of the Blades.

No, the Thalmor are way more than a purely military threat. It's their diplomacy, coupled with the Empire's gullibility, that's started the Civil War in Skyrim.

Unless I'm missing something, all we know for sure is that they reached a point where to keep fighting Hammerfell was no longer worth it. Was that point when they had used up literally every soldier not crucial to their defense? Perhaps, but it could just as easily have been that they decided that Hammerfell wasn't important enough to spend more than X amount of their forces there. There are plenty of examples of wars in the real world where one side gave up, despite having the ability to continue.

Or, they'd achieved what they wanted in Hammerfell and had no reason to keep fighting there.

I don't personally believe it - I think they were whupped fair and square, having already lost too much of their strength in the war in Cyrodiil - but for completeness' sake it should be considered as a possibility.

[GloatingSwine]

The armies of High Rock and Skyrim are the Imperial Legion and they were fighting in Cyrodiil! We're flat out told as much in game! Thats where Ulfric got captured! They tried to pull the armies from Hammerfell too, which only had moderate success.

That's not been the case during any of the games. The provinces have always had their own local forces as well as the Legion, and even wars between them (eg. the war over Betony between Daggerfall and Wayrest). When the Legion gave up in Hammerfell the fight was continued by exactly those forces.3

Or, they'd achieved what they wanted in Hammerfell and had no reason to keep fighting there.

I don't personally believe it - I think they were whupped fair and square, having already lost too much of their strength in the war in Cyrodiil - but for completeness' sake it should be considered as a possibility.

Given that what they wanted in Hammerfell was to own bits of it and they ended up owning none of it, it's very unlikely they got what they wanted.

[veti]

Given that what they wanted in Hammerfell was to own bits of it and they ended up owning none of it, it's very unlikely they got what they wanted.

That's what they demanded, but what they actually wanted may be something else. Like, access to the Adamantine Tower.

Did the Thalmor ever capture the tower? Even for an hour or so?

[GloatingSwine]

That's what they demanded, but what they actually wanted may be something else. Like, access to the Adamantine Tower.

Did the Thalmor ever capture the tower? Even for an hour or so?

If they wanted that, why demand southern Hammerfell? The Adamantine Tower is on the isle of Balfiera at the far end of the Iliac Bay. And it's not even in Hammerfell it's in High Rock, which they don't invade.

More likely they wanted a foothold on the mainland that they could leverage into snipping off the gold coast and linking their territory up with Valenwood.

[Keltest]

That's not been the case during any of the games.

You mean besides Morrowind, where the Legion garrisoned all over the wilderness, Oblivion which is in Cyrodiil, and Skyrim where the Legion specifically is there because the Imperial aligned forces don't have enough of an army of their own? Its also mentioned in Oblivion that the Legions arent available to help with the Oblivion Crisis because theyre off being the armies for the other provinces, and in Skyrim that the Dunmer didnt have a standing army without the Legion.

The provinces may be able to levy troops, but they don't have armies remotely equivalent to the Legions.

[GloatingSwine]

You mean besides Morrowind, where the Legion garrisoned all over the wilderness, Oblivion which is in Cyrodiil, and Skyrim where the Legion specifically is there because the Imperial aligned forces don't have enough of an army of their own? Its also mentioned in Oblivion that the Legions arent available to help with the Oblivion Crisis because theyre off being the armies for the other provinces, and in Skyrim that the Dunmer didnt have a standing army without the Legion.

The provinces may be able to levy troops, but they don't have armies remotely equivalent to the Legions.

The Legion has garrisons all over Morrowind (because they're supposed to stick out as an occupying force) but the Ordinators still exist as the primary armed force of the Tribunal, the Buoyant Armigers are Vivec's private force, the houses still have their own armed men, and so do the Ashlanders.

Daggerfall and Wayrest were able to muster armies and go to war with each other.

And it's always been like that, whether there have been Emperors on the Ruby Throne or not, the provinces have held their own forces and used them to fight internal and external foes. When a punitive expedition was needed against the Sload it was the combined forces of the nations that formed the All Flags Navy not the Empire, even though there was an Emperor at the time.

[druid91]

They beat the empire by invading it, crushing their armies and occupying their lands, what are you talking about?

Except they literally didn't. When it actually came down to a contest of arms and not a sucker punch the Dominion immediately started losing. After the first victories the powers that be in Cyrodiil took the white gold concordat to stop any potential attack to themselves.

The Empire never actually lost. They were winning when they signed the Concordat. The Dominion eliminated the blades and then launched a surprise attack of Cyrodiil. A costly surprise attack. When legion forces from other provinces actually showed up, the Dominion forces were wiped out.

[Keltest]

Except they literally didn't. When it actually came down to a contest of arms and not a sucker punch the Dominion immediately started losing. After the first victories the powers that be in Cyrodiil took the white gold concordat to stop any potential attack to themselves.

The Empire never actually lost. They were winning when they signed the Concordat. The Dominion eliminated the blades and then launched a surprise attack of Cyrodiil. A costly surprise attack. When legion forces from other provinces actually showed up, the Dominion forces were wiped out.

You have an interesting definition of winning, having your armies shattered and your political and economic heartland sacked and looted. They fought hard enough to get favorable terms of surrender, but that's it.

[Cikomyr2]

You have an interesting definition of winning, having your armies shattered and your political and economic heartland sacked and looted. They fought hard enough to get favorable terms of surrender, but that's it.

You are right. But he's also right. That is the point made. The rest of the provinces would have kept fighting, they were not spent. But Cyrodill spoke, and in the Medes Empire when Cyrodill speaks then its law.

The empire is structurally, fundamentally weak to violence to its capital region. Which makes sense, but is also a proof of weakness of an overlord. Hammerfell stood alone, and didnt had to give up Talos worship. Ulfric thinks the same should be true of Skyrim.

Cyrodill is perceived as a liability by the likes of the Stormcloaks. The Empire can be brought to its knee simply by striking there.

[druid91]

You have an interesting definition of winning, having your armies shattered and your political and economic heartland sacked and looted. They fought hard enough to get favorable terms of surrender, but that's it.

https://elderscrolls.fandom.com/wiki/Great_War

The Dominion launch a sneak attack and cause damage to the closest province which happens to be Cyrodiil, the capital province of the empire. They also launch a lesser invasion of Hammerfell.

They see great initial success. Gaining a strong hold on southern Hammerfell and after seeing the disarray in Cyrodiil, commit all available forces and take the Imperial city. That 'Commits all available forces' bit is important because once troops from Skyrim and Hammerfell show up in Cyrodiil, the battle of the Red ring happens, the battle where the army of Lord Naarifin, consisting of literally every available soldier the Dominion had that was not in Hammerfell at the time, is entirely wiped out. Dead. Every one of them. Total defeat. Heavy losses for the Imperials as well, but the Dominion is basically defenseless at this point and the Empire could have just launched a counter-invasion of the Dominion. The only soldiers they have left are their forces in Hammerfell.

Immediately following this victory which utterly broke the back of the Dominions ability to make war, the Imperials offer the White Gold Concordat to the Dominion.

[Keltest]

https://elderscrolls.fandom.com/wiki/Great_War

The Dominion launch a sneak attack and cause damage to the closest province which happens to be Cyrodiil, the capital province of the empire. They also launch a lesser invasion of Hammerfell.

They see great initial success. Gaining a strong hold on southern Hammerfell and after seeing the disarray in Cyrodiil, commit all available forces and take the Imperial city. That 'Commits all available forces' bit is important because once troops from Skyrim and Hammerfell show up in Cyrodiil, the battle of the Red ring happens, the battle where the army of Lord Naarifin, consisting of literally every available soldier the Dominion had that was not in Hammerfell at the time, is entirely wiped out. Dead. Every one of them. Total defeat. Heavy losses for the Imperials as well, but the Dominion is basically defenseless at this point and the Empire could have just launched a counter-invasion of the Dominion. The only soldiers they have left are their forces in Hammerfell.

Immediately following this victory which utterly broke the back of the Dominions ability to make war, the Imperials offer the White Gold Concordat to the Dominion.

Now we're just back to you not understanding how war works. The Dominion is not defenseless, they did not pull literally every soldier they have to Hammerfell and Cyrodiil. They still have garrisons, forts, all the good stuff back home, to say nothing of how completely awful it has been to invade Valenwood every time someone has tried it.

[druid91]

Now we're just back to you not understanding how war works. The Dominion is not defenseless, they did not pull literally every soldier they have to Hammerfell and Cyrodiil. They still have garrisons, forts, all the good stuff back home, to say nothing of how completely awful it has been to invade Valenwood every time someone has tried it.

No. The lore literally says as a blunt fact, they pulled all available troops into the invasion of Cyrodiil because they thought they could conquer the empire then and there. They might have some Garrisons, but frankly, those would likely be under-manned because again, they literally thought they had the Empire on the run and were going to win the war and rule all of Tamriel mere days before their entire army in Cyrodiil was dead.

As for Valenwood, you get assistance from a Bosmer Rebel during the game which doesn't paint a good picture of ongoing Aldmeri control there. If the Empire invades the Somerset Isles, Valenwood is not coming to the rescue.

In 4E 174, the Thalmor leadership committed all available forces to the campaign in Cyrodiil, gambling on a decisive victory to end the war once and for all.

Instead of a decisive victory, they got a decisive defeat, and the total loss of all forces committed to the Cyrodiil campaign.

[Keltest]

No. The lore literally says as a blunt fact, they pulled all available troops into the invasion of Cyrodiil because they thought they could conquer the empire then and there. They might have some Garrisons, but frankly, those would likely be under-manned because again, they literally thought they had the Empire on the run and were going to win the war and rule all of Tamriel mere days before their entire army in Cyrodiil was dead.

As for Valenwood, you get assistance from a Bosmer Rebel during the game which doesn't paint a good picture of ongoing Aldmeri control there. If the Empire invades the Somerset Isles, Valenwood is not coming to the rescue.



Instead of a decisive victory, they got a decisive defeat, and the total loss of all forces committed to the Cyrodiil campaign.

That "available" qualifier there is a very important one that youre ignoring. The garrison of a border fort is not an available force. Its busy occupying the fort! Its highly unlikely that the Summerset Isles lent their navy to the campaign against the majority-landlocked Cyrodiil, so thats still a thing they have to contend with as well even if they were to attempt to bypass Valenwood for some reason.