State of the Great Western Conflict

[tomaO2]

Okay, I was really, really upset when the dwagons got wiped out. I would have liked to have stopped reading the comic at that point but it's kind of hard to resist with the way this website makes sure you always know when a new update of that comic pops up, even if I only want to read OOTS. So I kept reading but I made a promise to not comment on it anymore until I felt I saw a way for Person to still win that acknoledged that he was in an unwinnable situation without being a deus ex meca (did I spell that right?).

I think the idea of breaking up the alliance is a good one and something I had never personally considered beforhand so after mulling it over for a number of pages and looking at the story as a whole (5 months later. Last post in this forum was November) I take back my bad thoughts on the matter and say that the authors are doing/have done a good job and the story is enjoyable for me to read again.

That said, this isn't a cake walk people, lets review.

Parson cannot win against the full alliance. He just can't. He can't even win against half. The alliance had 4 times what they needed to win at the start of this game and that ratio has grown, in Ansom's favor (even without counting the late alliance with Charlie). Yes, Ansom lost 40% of his siege but Stanly suffered far worse comparative losses. Parson's plan failed. Any momentum he might have gained from his cleverness was erased when the damaged dwagons were killed. It was a win for Ansom, it SHOULD have been a win for Parson but was not and saying it should have been does nothing to help fracture Ansom's alliance.

Stanley's greatest threat is from his dwagons. The air units had the smallest advantage here and they would have to shoulder the burden alone. Getting rid of both air forces, again, favors Ansom, as it is in his ground forces that he truly shines in overwhelming firepower.

The one spot where Parson is a bit better is in the reduced siege. However, half the siege is still enough to take down the walls though and, don't forget, the undead fighters are unlikely to be used much until Wanda is better. That cuts his forces down even worse.

Let's review Parson's plan. In honesty, I don't see it as being all that good at the moment (I assume there are factors we don't see as to why that's not the case but they are not evident at the moment). Let's look at why.

-The tunnels were never designed to be used defensively. Think about this. Yes, Sizemore has been working a bit on defenses and Parson gave him some new ideas but that's not the same as having a dedicated structure. The walls of the city ARE dedicated to being defensive. I seriously doubt that one caster could have built them and yet we are suppost to believe that Sizemore, essentially alone, could make a defense that rivals the toughest defensive fortifications in, perhaps, all of the Erf? Seems unlikely.

-Parson must move his best tunnel fighters to the walls to deceive Ansom. I don't remember anyone pointing this out but gobwins are his best tunnel fighters. They are smiler to Marbits in that fashion as both get a bonus to fight underground. So what is being used then? All I know of, is a few golems. They are powerful but not enough to block a large attack. Any fighters that he uses will be mostly sub-optimal. While Ansom can move his best tunnel fighters into the fray.

-Sizemore. Or more exactly, Ansom's knowledge of Sizemore. Does he have any? If not, then Parson has a chance to really make a suprise. If he does though (and why wouldn't he? Sizemore popped up in King Saline's reign. Casters are rare and important and it strains credulity that no one would have information on what casters a prosperous and well known kingdom like Gobwin Knob would have), then they would know what to expect. Forewarned is forearmed. In any case, the suprise value can only work for one turn and Ansom is prepared for a long grind.

-Attacking the tunnels just makes sense. Ansom is down siege, and most (not all) of his fliers are going away to handle Stanly. Both factors make a wall assult MUCH more constly but matter not at all if the main assult is in the tunnels. As an aside, I'd like to point out that, contrary to popular belief, the bats will remain with Ansom. They don't have enough move to go after Stanley as Jillian said she can't take units that are slower then 26 move. If there is ANY flying unit that would be good for tunnel fighting, it would be bats.


My opinion of this "trap" is that it's not really a trap at all. It's not a trap like the dwagons attacking the siege is a trap. Parson has simply looked at the two options and decided that he can inflict heavier losses in the tunnels. If the alliance is under the impression that the tunnels could be taken relatively bloodlessly, then that could start doubts and begin a chain reaction to breaking up the alliance but it's important to remember that Parson can't win militarily here. Had he killed all the seige then he might have been able to win a defence, military victory but he did not. Nothing he does at this point can kill enough enemies to win. Parson is like Ender in his fights at battle school. Sure the other commanders are not as clever as him but they did learn and their forces got continally stronger. Eventually the odds got so bad that had ne not been able to cheat in the last fight, Ender would have lost.

In this case Parson has to cheat by breaking up the alliance. However, if the coalition stays strong, Parson dies.


Aside from the tunnels, we have Ansom planning a double move. This is very smart. Stanley has had exactly 2 moves now since leaving the city. Jillian will now get 2 moves on her own with her coming double turn. This will put her at roughly the same location that Stanley is shen she finishes. Her plan is not to look for him though, as she knows he likely is using his foolmancer to hide. It is instead to pass him and block him off from the city. With her knowledge of the area she is going to, I have no doubt she will succeed in this. What happens after though, is anyone's guess. It's not good odds for Stanley however.

Parson goading Ansom was a good start but it didn't do enough. Not near enough. I was hoping that he would get irrational and accuse people of dealing with Parson but that did not happen. This latest strip implies that Stanley intrupting did not help Parson out at all. That's not good. Still, showing Vinny being upset shows some cracks. Better yet, Ansom's best council is leaving. He's already angry and with no one to restrain him he will very likely go overboard if he suffers higher casualties then expected in the tunnels. He has shown himself to have almost as short temper as Stanley when it comes to bad news or if he is not shown a proper lack of respect.

If Pason can hold him off next turn. If he can make Ansom erratic. If he can get Wanda better the next day and gain advantage to her undead bonus so that he can delay Ansom for another turn. If Ansom doesn't know about the Dirtmancer. If a number of Ansom's allies can be convinced to change sides after losses start mounting. If, if, if.

It's possible. A way shows itself (if it didn't I wouldn't be posting) but there is no reason at all to be sanguine. Parson himself is very aware that he is very likely to lose here and no one should underestimate what is coming.

[SteveMB]

My opinion of this "trap" is that it's not really a trap at all. It's not a trap like the dwagons attacking the siege is a trap. Parson has simply looked at the two options and decided that he can inflict heavier losses in the tunnels.

My guess is that the point of the "hit one stack of scouts with excessive force while ignoring the rest" tactic was to give Ansom an apparent tempting target -- a large portion of the enemy force with poorly guarded approach routes -- in order to draw him into committing a large force. And, in fact, that's just how Ansom interpreted the reports, and he is at least strongly considering making his main attack through the tunnels.

If Ansom sends in (or, better, personally leads in) a large force and makes a concentrated attack on this "target", Parson will be able to croak or isolate those units by collapsing a relatively small number of tunnels (i.e. not enough to risk bringing down the city). IMO, that's what Parson is aiming for.

[Lord_Butters_I]

Random and pointless, but why purple text?

[The_Alec]

-Attacking the tunnels just makes sense.

I disagree on your thoughts about the tunnels. The main advantage that Ansom possesses is that his forces out number Gobwin Knob’s by 25 to 1. To fully utilise this advantage he needs to be able to fight on a battle ground where he can send all of his forces in at once. The tunnels may not have been designed with defence in mind but the very fact that they will place a limit on the number of troops that can sent in to attack at once will only work in Parson’s favour. Thus the original plan was to attack the walls.

While loosing a significant amount of the siege and having the bulk of his air force engaged else where will make an assault on the walls significantly more costly I don’t think there is any doubt that Ansom would eventually succeed. The lure of the tunnels is that Parson has fooled Ansom into thinking that they have been left undefended in order to reinforce the walls. Thus Ansom faces the prospect of an assault on the walls that will result in higher than expected casualties or the possibility of an easy victory by making a surprise attack through the tunnels. But of course we know that an attack on the tunnels won’t come as a surprise at all.

-Parson must move his best tunnel fighters to the walls to deceive Ansom.

My guess is that Parson has figured out that the bonus that Golems and Uncroaked receive while being lead by their related casters is greater then the bonus that Gobwins receive while fighting in tunnels. He is probably aiming for a 300 type scenario where a small force of superior soldiers can hold off a much larger army by fighting them on a battleground where the attackers can only field a small part of their forces at any one time.

Of course this could all be made redundant if Jillian manages to croak Stanly and all the Gobwin Knob forces have to disband.

[tomaO2]

Ooooh, good point. I'd forgotten about the chokeholds keeping a lot of the army out. It would be interesting to manage a 300 type situation. That's more information we just don't know though.

One reason I'm not sure that if it's workable though is because if the main attack comes from underground then a significant amount of resourses would have to be moved there. Parson can't just sit on the entrance. That's what Ansom expects so he'll have to spread out on the tunnels and since they already know the general area of where to go to get to the mining entrance so having a lot of dead ends won't help, unless Sizemore can change the layout on Ansom's turn.

I'm pretty sure that the Golem's are not enough to handle this alone though and the uncroaked don't get their bonus until Wanda is better. Still doesn't look good. With the info we have. I do love the strategy component of this comic though so I can't wait to get more details so we get a better picture of what's going on. :)

As for why I use Indigo font. I like it and I can take an extra 20 seconds to make my posts to stand out a bit. Just because Black is the standered doesn't make it the be all, end all.

[BarGamer]

It's spelled "Deus ex machina." :)

I'll have to agree with the Opening Post. If Ansom, Vinny, the Archons, and supposedly Jillian were able to wipe out a lot of uncroaked warlords and wounded dragons, then Vinny, Jillian, the Archons, and bunch of other troops should be able to cream Stanley, his 3 knights, the Foolamancer, and 4 dragons. (Assuming Stanly fails the Int check to remember the Foolamancer's name, and gets him working. My money's on Vinny. XD)

On Parson's side, unless he pulls out another genius tactic or two, gets another conveniently-awesome Stupid Meal Toy, AND shatters the Coalition, he's booped. At the moment, the Coalition's only split in two, but those are still two VERY big pieces.

Also, is the Table still working? Can Parson still tell when Jillian and Vinny And Co fly off to chase Stanley?

[krossbow]

Madness?


THIS. IS. GOBWIN KNOBB!









While the Movie 300 was a horrible exagerration which frankly makes me puke at its artistic "liberties", the simple fact is, a group of suicidal, and superior units can hold a overwhelmingly larger force at bay in a bottleneck, as long as the opposing units are inferior in training, equipment, or simply ability.

[slayerx]

If Ansom sends in (or, better, personally leads in) a large force and makes a concentrated attack on this "target", Parson will be able to croak or isolate those units by collapsing a relatively small number of tunnels (i.e. not enough to risk bringing down the city). IMO, that's what Parson is aiming for.

I'm guessing along the same lines here...
It may even be possible that Parson could trap them in the tunnels by collapsing the front and back but also collapsing in the middle to not only trap but separate the forces... Depending on what the rules are for tunneling, this could do wonders for Parson. If Ansom's forces need to spend a turn or two to dig through collapsed tunnel, then that would mean that Parson can fight the alliance forces a few at a time; instead of taking on Ansom's forces all at once, he could fight them in waves... If parson cane make sure to minimize his losses by cycling damaged units for healthy units, each turn the Paron's units will be restored to full health and be ready for the new wave; this would seriously lower the advantage Ansom has with numbers.

It's like by the time Ansom's leading force breaks into GK through the tunnels, Parson will have already destroyed the feint that was attacking the wall and now move most of his forces in front of the tunnel entrance to take on Ansom's tunnel forces one by one

[Lamech]

Parson cannot win against the full alliance. He just can't. He can't even win against half. The alliance had 4 times what they needed to win at the start of this game and that ratio has grown, in Ansom's favor (even without counting the late alliance with Charlie). Yes, Ansom lost 40% of his siege but Stanly suffered far worse comparative losses. Parson's plan failed. Any momentum he might have gained from his cleverness was erased when the damaged dwagons were killed. It was a win for Ansom, it SHOULD have been a win for Parson but was not and saying it should have been does nothing to help fracture Ansom's alliance.

Stanley's greatest threat is from his dwagons. The air units had the smallest advantage here and they would have to shoulder the burden alone. Getting rid of both air forces, again, favors Ansom, as it is in his ground forces that he truly shines in overwhelming firepower.

I think Parson's situation has gotten better in terms of units, the dwagons may be gone, but can the alliance really risk losing mountain capable units in combat, if Jillian messes up. If Stanley comes back with 50 dwagon, a luckamancer, and a really huge artifact bonus and they sent to many of those mountain capable out its over, the alliance loses, 100% kill rate, Stanley takes the pliers, and adds a huge army of uncroaked. The alliance can't let that happen. Also if the alliance loses a small advantage they still lost an advantage.

-Parson must move his best tunnel fighters to the walls to deceive Ansom. I don't remember anyone pointing this out but gobwins are his best tunnel fighters. They are smiler to Marbits in that fashion as both get a bonus to fight underground. So what is being used then? All I know of, is a few golems. They are powerful but not enough to block a large attack. Any fighters that he uses will be mostly sub-optimal. While Ansom can move his best tunnel fighters into the fray.

But the feint is coming first in Ansom's plan. Parson can move them back, and he can uncroak the ones who die (Parson said he really needs Wanda), further increasing the bonus of them. If Parson can uncroak enemies so much the better. Also maybe the marbits simply don't suffer a penalty, all we know is their Ansom's best tunnel fighters.

As an aside, I'd like to point out that, contrary to popular belief, the bats will remain with Ansom. They don't have enough move to go after Stanley as Jillian said she can't take units that are slower then 26 move. If there is ANY flying unit that would be good for tunnel fighting, it would be bats.

I would like to point out there are 28 and they are crap in combat. Won't help all that much.

[PyritePyro]

I think Parson's situation has gotten better in terms of units, the dwagons may be gone, but can the alliance really risk losing mountain capable units in combat, if Jillian messes up. If Stanley comes back with 50 dwagon, a luckamancer, and a really huge artifact bonus and they sent to many of those mountain capable out its over, the alliance loses, 100% kill rate, Stanley takes the pliers, and adds a huge army of uncroaked. The alliance can't let that happen. Also if the alliance loses a small advantage they still lost an advantage.



But the feint is coming first in Ansom's plan. Parson can move them back, and he can uncroak the ones who die (Parson said he really needs Wanda), further increasing the bonus of them. If Parson can uncroak enemies so much the better. Also maybe the marbits simply don't suffer a penalty, all we know is their Ansom's best tunnel fighters.



I would like to point out there are 28 and they are crap in combat. Won't help all that much.

Yes, but they are also light, and can probably be stuck on gwyphonback, so they don't make Vinny ill when they get croaked by the Jestone alliance. I don't think that the doombats are really going to be an issue though.

[tomaO2]

I think Parson's situation has gotten better in terms of units, the dwagons may be gone, but can the alliance really risk losing mountain capable units in combat, if Jillian messes up. If Stanley comes back with 50 dwagon, a luckamancer, and a really huge artifact bonus and they sent to many of those mountain capable out its over, the alliance loses, 100% kill rate, Stanley takes the pliers, and adds a huge army of uncroaked. The alliance can't let that happen. Also if the alliance loses a small advantage they still lost an advantage.

Your forgetting that Stanley left with the dwagons. If Ansom had just sent his air units off for no reason then you would be right but having the air units gone from both sides is a net Ansom advantage.

But the feint is coming first in Ansom's plan. Parson can move them back, and he can uncroak the ones who die (Parson said he really needs Wanda), further increasing the bonus of them. If Parson can uncroak enemies so much the better. Also maybe the marbits simply don't suffer a penalty, all we know is their Ansom's best tunnel fighters.

You assume that Wanda can raise the undead of the opposing army. That is not established. Even if that WAS true, how is she going to do that when bodies dissapear at the "start of the next turn" It will be gone by dawn and Wanda will not be healed before then.

I would like to point out there are 28 and they are crap in combat. Won't help all that much.

That's why it was more of a side note. I read a few comments that the bats would be going with Jillian and wanted to correct that.

PS. No, the table is no longer working. The Lookmancer is also dead so he can't have a cool tactical overview of the fight.

I loved that table...

[Lamech]

Your forgetting that Stanley left with the dwagons. If Ansom had just sent his air units off for no reason then you would be right but having the air units gone from both sides is a net Ansom advantage.

No, the alliance air forces where stronger than Stanley's if that wasn't the case Parson would have destroyed the alliance air forces, and he would be preforming the hit and runs right now with all the dwagons. It is an advantage for Parson, that the air units have canceled. Also the alliance can't risk its mountain capable units now; meaning he gets another advantage in ground units, and a big one since they have no idea how powerful Stanley might be.

You assume that Wanda can raise the undead of the opposing army. That is not established. Even if that WAS true, how is she going to do that when bodies disappear at the "start of the next turn" It will be gone by dawn and Wanda will not be healed before then.

It should stay around for a whole turn, like the trash it wouldn't make sense for some things to stay around for longer than others. Two, even if only slain goblins are uncroaked they get Wanda's bonus now so thats still a net gain. Plus Parson's units might level, so even better. Of course, as Parson said he needs Wanda.

[Ptorquemada]

I read a few comments that the bats would be going with Jillian and wanted to correct that.

The bats MAY not go with Jillian, but they probably CANNOT stay with Ansom. They're Transylvito forces, and as far as I know Vinny is the only Transylvito leader around. They can't stay with Ansom because if they do so without a leader they'll automatically attack adjacent unallied stacks (which Ansom's troops will be at that point).

My guess is that Vinny will have the bats move as far as they can following the main force so that he'll have some recon on the way in case Stanley doesn't show up on schedule. Remember, they don't actually KNOW that Stanley is headed for Faq, they just believe that he is.

If they turn out to be wrong, then they've commited significant troops, including at least five EXTREMELY powerful units shown to be capable of taking out dwagons, to an eventuality that failed to eventuate and they don't know where Stanley is or what he's doing. Recon would be an exceptionally good thing to have at that point.

It's at least theoretically possible that Stanley went somewhere completely different (or changes his mind on the way... maybe he comes back to get some spellcasty-type help from Maggie with the Foolamancer, or something), and that he's going to arrive back at GK at the start of his turn immediately following the new Transylvito Alliance's first move.

Can you imagine Parson's face as he realizes they suddenly, miraculously, have total uncontested air superiority, with no enemy aerial forces available for at least two turns?

Please note that I don't expect that to happen, but it would be lovely to see.

By the way... I'm going to remember the phrase "Deus ex Mecha" and pull it out next time I want to cheese off some Gundam fanboy.

[tomaO2]

It's at least theoretically possible that Stanley went somewhere completely different (or changes his mind on the way... maybe he comes back to get some spellcasty-type help from Maggie with the Foolamancer, or something), and that he's going to arrive back at GK at the start of his turn immediately following the new Transylvito Alliance's first move.

Can you imagine Parson's face as he realizes they suddenly, miraculously, have total uncontested air superiority, with no enemy aerial forces available for at least two turns?

Please note that I don't expect that to happen, but it would be lovely to see.

Oh God yes Ptorquemada. I thought the exact same thing when I looked at that last strip. I don't know why it didn't some to me sooner. It would have been brillant. Just completely brilliant if Stanley could pull a 180 like that.

Would be so cool. I really doubt it will happen (or I would have suggested it before) but then again Parson really needs an edge and edges are not in high abundance.

And good points about the bats. I had assumed that you could dissolve half the troops of an alliance and keep the rest. There is nothing to really support that viewpoint. Nothing against it either though but I guess the idea of the bats hitching a ride on the bigger fliers is a reasonable one. We'll have to wait to find out.

[slayerx]

It's at least theoretically possible that Stanley went somewhere completely different (or changes his mind on the way... maybe he comes back to get some spellcasty-type help from Maggie with the Foolamancer, or something), and that he's going to arrive back at GK at the start of his turn immediately following the new Transylvito Alliance's first move.

Can you imagine Parson's face as he realizes they suddenly, miraculously, have total uncontested air superiority, with no enemy aerial forces available for at least two turns?

Please note that I don't expect that to happen, but it would be lovely to see.

By the way... I'm going to remember the phrase "Deus ex Mecha" and pull it out next time I want to cheese off some Gundam fanboy.

Having Air Superiority in that sense would do them no good unless Ansom completely cut off anyway of contacting the air troops... Just as Ansom can attack he can fall back... if he sees the dwagons return he will pull his forces back, contact Charlie/vinnie/jillian and wait for them to return before pressing on the attack... Also, air superiroty would be meaningless if the main attack happsn in the tunnel as the air units are only useful on the wall... if anything it would just give Ansom one more reason to go the tunnel route instead which is something that he may already have been goaded into doing

[Lunix Vandal]

The bats MAY not go with Jillian, but they probably CANNOT stay with Ansom. They're Transylvito forces, and as far as I know Vinny is the only Transylvito leader around. They can't stay with Ansom because if they do so without a leader they'll automatically attack adjacent unallied stacks (which Ansom's troops will be at that point).

Maybe it's just me, but "you have to switch alliances (and croak or be croaked) because the only Warlord from your faction in a coalition is leaving the coalition" is just a little dumb/arbitrary for my tastes (no offense intended). I would think that Ansom would be able to reassign the 'bats to another commander (such as Webinar, for example), and/or order them not to break their alliance (even though Vinnie will be leaving). Kinda like Heroes of Might and Magic (or at least HoM&M 2) - you can have stacks of Cyclopes, Crusaders, Phoenixes, and Black Dragons (from captured castles) all under the command of a single Wizard Hero, even though they'd take a penalty for being overly-mixed forces.

[reignofevil]

Having Air Superiority in that sense would do them no good unless Ansom completely cut off anyway of contacting the air troops... Just as Ansom can attack he can fall back... if he sees the dwagons return he will pull his forces back, contact Charlie/vinnie/jillian and wait for them to return before pressing on the attack... Also, air superiroty would be meaningless if the main attack happsn in the tunnel as the air units are only useful on the wall... if anything it would just give Ansom one more reason to go the tunnel route instead which is something that he may already have been goaded into doing

Assuming Parson has 2 turns of air might, with dragons with 56ish move, I dont think Ansom can even fall back far enough. Not in a single turn anyway. And why pray he goes for the tunnels, when you can MAKE him go for the tunnels? Just destroy whats left of the siege. He did 40% of it in one turn before, one more turn would be 80% and one more... Well that two turns of air could make all the difference. And what if he could get a dwagon INSIDE the tunnel? God help the marbits.

[Arkenputtyknife]

Maybe it's just me, but "you have to switch alliances (and croak or be croaked) because the only Warlord from your faction in a coalition is leaving the coalition" is just a little dumb/arbitrary for my tastes (no offense intended).

That's pretty much how I feel about it, though the “Stacks without a leader are forced to autoattack” statement puts a damper on the idea.

I can't help but think that Parson's statement might have been a simplification or misunderstanding, as at the time he wrote it, everyone could be categorised as allies and enemies. (I don't recall whether he learned of Charlie before or after that incident, which would have added Neutrals to the mix and might have altered his phrasing.) The situation now is that there are allies, enemies, neutrals (e.g. Charlie before allying with Ansom), and non-allied friends. It remains to be seen whether this is anything more than a semantic difference.

[Ptorquemada]

Maybe it's just me, but "you have to switch alliances (and croak or be croaked) because the only Warlord from your faction in a coalition is leaving the coalition" is just a little dumb/arbitrary for my tastes (no offense intended). I would think that Ansom would be able to reassign the 'bats to another commander (such as Webinar, for example), and/or order them not to break their alliance (even though Vinnie will be leaving). Kinda like Heroes of Might and Magic (or at least HoM&M 2) - you can have stacks of Cyclopes, Crusaders, Phoenixes, and Black Dragons (from captured castles) all under the command of a single Wizard Hero, even though they'd take a penalty for being overly-mixed forces.

No offence taken. In some sense pretty much all wargame rules are arbitrary, but I do have to say this one makes sense to me... you're low-level catapult fodder, you have no leaders in sight, and there's guys over there you don't know but you're booping sure they're not your allies. Waste 'em before they waste you, man!

It's a model of rational thought compared to "forest-capable units can attack flying units in forest hexes," because sure, that makes sense, units that are good at scurrying around through foliage OBVIOUSLY should be able to attack units flying over at 2500 feet, how could anyone possibly not see that?

It's strongly implied that alliances are at the top level (nations, or whatever), not on a unit by unit basis, but it did occur to me after my earlier post that Civilization games (to name one example) allow you to give units to other players, so it wouldn't be entirely without precedent in wargame rules for Transylvito to be able to give the bats to Jetstone.

That said, I think Vinnie arguably needs them more than Ansom does, and I suspect that the link between Vinnie and the bats is a natural thinkamancy ability specific to Vinnie-type units which Ansom probably doesn't have.