Erf 112, Page 100!

[Winston]

Well I loved this episode and I love all the speculation so here is my two cents.

What we know:
Charlie - he has stated that he does not want to switch sides during a battle because of the danger of his rep. Also he so far the only interest he has expressed is in working with Parson in the future.

Stanley/Parson - Whatever else is going on Stanley and Parson are still on the same side. Combine this with the fact that according to the rules of natural thinkamancy Parson cannot betray or fail to inform Stanley about stuff because of his duty as Chief Warlord. Thus Whatever Charlie's offer is, it probably cannot involve Stanley getting croaked. Not to mention if Stanley does get croaked then the city goes neutral, Ansom curb stomps it, and Parson is probably killed in the process. (If you think about strategy games, neutral sides are the sides without players so they just sit there until they get conquered. In that case Parson would probably not even be able to surrender to Charlie instead of Ansom if the city was turned neutral.

Turns - While Charlie/Barbarians/Transylvito have the first turn, their plan is to lie in wait for Stanley in which means that they could not croak Stanley that day since he would encounter them on his turn and thus could withdraw.

Twists - Sure stanley is flying right now but we know that there are actually two routes to this city (remember Zamussel mentioned a tunnel too) so Stanley may not even go to that chokepoint hex. Also we don't know what the deal will be if the Foolamancer ever gets his right mind back and can manage to do some magic.

Unknowns - we know what happens if Stanley gets croaked but we do not know what happens if Stanley surrenders (say to Charlie who seems to be the only one in the Alliance not set on croaking him). Also if Stanley does get croaked who is going to try to take the hammer?

Conclusions:
I am stumped so I guess I will just have to see what happens in the next page.

Winston

[Rosnet]

Normally for the landmark issue 100 one would expect some sort of glorified giant splash page or super turn of events. I enjoyed the added story and intrigue.

Not worth the wait

[SteveMB]

Turns - While Charlie/Barbarians/Transylvito have the first turn, their plan is to lie in wait for Stanley in which means that they could not croak Stanley that day since he would encounter them on his turn and thus could withdraw.

They're probably counting on the fact that Stanley isn't prudent enough to withdraw and has nowhere else to go -- otherwise, he could just run in any direction and the Coalition would have a hard time tracking him down.

[The Old Hack]

They're probably counting on the fact that Stanley isn't prudent enough to withdraw and has nowhere else to go -- otherwise, he could just run in any direction and the Coalition would have a hard time tracking him down.

Yeah. I have mentioned this before, but they are making a lot of assumptions. They are assuming that Stanley is headed for Faq. They are assuming that he wants to start a new Side. They are assuming that 20-some dwagons and a handful of Knights is all he has left. Ansom is assuming that Don King and Charlie will just go along with his plans because of his inherent Nobleness. That's a mighty big castle in the sky they are basing their strategy on.

In all honesty: can we know for certain even that Stanley is headed for the ruins of Faq?

[slayerx]

Charlie - he has stated that he does not want to switch sides during a battle because of the danger of his rep. Also he so far the only interest he has expressed is in working with Parson in the future.

to be exact, i think it's safe to say Charlie was referring to switching sides while under a contract. What will ruin his rep is not switching sides but breaking contracts for a higher bidder; it would make him untrustworthy as any one with a deeper wallet can hire him... the reason he is contacting Parson to talk business is because Ansom has effectively canceled Charlie's current contract and freed him to do as he pleases

Twists - Sure stanley is flying right now but we know that there are actually two routes to this city (remember Zamussel mentioned a tunnel too) so Stanley may not even go to that chokepoint hex. Also we don't know what the deal will be if the Foolamancer ever gets his right mind back and can manage to do some magic.

Actually, i don't think the dwagons can travel in the tunnels... i recall a few rules of what units could use tunnels and the dwagons sounded like they would be some of the units that couldn't move through them

[SteveMB]

Yeah. I have mentioned this before, but they are making a lot of assumptions. They are assuming that Stanley is headed for Faq. They are assuming that he wants to start a new Side. They are assuming that 20-some dwagons and a handful of Knights is all he has left. Ansom is assuming that Don King and Charlie will just go along with his plans because of his inherent Nobleness. That's a mighty big castle in the sky they are basing their strategy on.

In all honesty: can we know for certain even that Stanley is headed for the ruins of Faq?

We've just seen that the assumption that Charlie will just go along with the plans is about to bite Ansom in the butt; the only question is exactly how hard.

As for their other assumptions:

1. They probably have a good general idea of what forces Stanley's side has; members of the Coalition have been at war with him for a while already.

2. As for the question of where Stanley is headed, note that Ansom and Vinny were initially skeptical of Jillian's conclusion that he'd gone anywhere. My read is that, as far as they knew, he had nowhere to go (he has to get his upkeep from somewhere, and he's made too many enemies to make a living as a freelance mercenary even if his temperment would allow him to go back to being an underling). They certainly didn't seem to think that he'd run for it before they arrived (if they did, they would have easily accepted Jillian's conclusion, since it would agree with what they expected already).

2a. After hearing Jillian's story, Ansom concurs with her conclusion that Stanley is headed there to start a new side (since, based on this new information, that's evidently the one and only option that will enable his continued survival).

[Doug Lampert]

Where does this "break with the Coalition" comment come from? He was allied with Ansom's side under contract for a few days. And Ansom ended the contract. As Vinny describes, "So now Jetstone releases Charles-comm form merc service". Charlie honored his contract and is free to make new ones. At the moment, neither Charlescomm nor Transylvito are allied with the Coalition. Under Ansom's plan, neither are de jure allied with the Coalition (in order to exploit the turn order). De facto, Transylvito is allied with the Coalition, of course. And they are assuming that is also the case with Charlescomm, but that is not mutual.

Mind you, there is one caveat: "Charlie and Don King have been apprised of this plan." So, depending on what was actually agreed to and what agreements Charlie makes, there could be a claim of double-dealing that could affect his reputation.

There would a claim of double-dealing REGARDLESS of the formal agreements.

And it would be a legitimate claim.

No one in the real world writes contracts that cover every possible contingency, both because this is obviously impossible and because it is accepted that good faith and the interpretation of a mytical "reasonable man" along with applicable precedent are the guiding principals in interpreting contracts.

Charlie was informed of the plan, he didn't say "No", he was capable of saying "No", he was on the Royal Crown side at the time so they can reasonably assume good faith in what he tells them or doesn't tell them. To not tell them THEN that he doesn't plan to follow their plan is in fact not good faith and this lack of good faith was at a time when he WAS on their side and WAS being paid by them.

If Charlie actually switches sides he wasn't acting as a good faith agent of the side he was both de facto and de jure a part of when he was told of the plan. And THAT bad faith would wreck his reputation.

He's about to suggest SOMETHING based on being temporarily neutral, but if it is an actual side change I'll be very disapointed.

[Lamech]

Yeah. I have mentioned this before, but they are making a lot of assumptions. They are assuming that Stanley is headed for Faq. They are assuming that he wants to start a new Side. They are assuming that 20-some dwagons and a handful of Knights is all he has left. Ansom is assuming that Don King and Charlie will just go along with his plans because of his inherent Nobleness. That's a mighty big castle in the sky they are basing their strategy on.

In all honesty: can we know for certain even that Stanley is headed for the ruins of Faq?

We can't be sure he's headed for FAQ, maybe he has a way to get the dish that requires a un-linked foolamancer.
I'm going to try to list all the assumptions the coalition has right now.
1) Jillian is reliable, meaning clear-headed, working for them and not under the influence of a thinkamancy spell.
1a) Jillian is also assuming that Wanda was telling the truth about FAQ
2) Stanley is going to FAQ.
3) Stanley is planning on using the choke point and not the tunnels.
4) Stanley lacks a method such as lookamancy or a traitor to gain info on the coalition's troop positions.
5) The tunnels can't be collapsed to wipe out the units in the tunnel.
6) Charlie won't turn regardless of contracts and try to grab the artifacts, casters, magic items, and GK's great position for himself.
7) Charlie will re-ally with the Don King and not see if he can't get something from GK for himself.

If someone questions number one or number four, that assumption could be gone very quickly. GK has a thinkamancer and Jillian was captured, and GK doesn't scout, yet had the position of the siege.

[teratorn]

He's about to suggest SOMETHING based on being temporarily neutral, but if it is an actual side change I'll be very disapointed.

And that would make Ansom a moron, not simply someone impetuous. I expect something devious.

[SteveMB]

There would a claim of double-dealing REGARDLESS of the formal agreements.

And it would be a legitimate claim....

Charlie was informed of the plan, he didn't say "No", he was capable of saying "No", he was on the Royal Crown side at the time so they can reasonably assume good faith in what he tells them or doesn't tell them. To not tell them THEN that he doesn't plan to follow their plan is in fact not good faith and this lack of good faith was at a time when he WAS on their side and WAS being paid by them.

That's a valid point. It might be mitigated if the picking up of the new contract falters (either sincerely or as an excuse) on the issue of Charlie seeking to adjust his rates based on the new, much riskier, situation than the situation at the time Ansom first hired him.

1a) Jillian is also assuming that Wanda was telling the truth about FAQ

Er, what? Jillian was the heir to Faq; what might Wanda have told her that she didn't already know? (I suppose Wanda might have had some information about just what happened when Faq fell and about Stanley's contingency plan to escape there, but we have no reason to believe that she told Jillian anything along those lines.)

(Or did you mean "Ansom is assuming that Jillian is telling the truth about Faq"?)

[The Old Hack]

2a. After hearing Jillian's story, Ansom concurs with her conclusion that Stanley is headed there to start a new side (since, based on this new information, that's evidently the one and only option that will enable his continued survival).

Actually, while it may seem so to Ansom, I would personally strenuously disagree with this one. I have been doing a bit of thinking. What is the personality trait of Stanley's that shines the most clearly through, apart from the Arkentool obsession?

Easy answer: his passion for dwagons.

Here we see him lament the loss of a blue dwagon.

Here, when trying to impress Parson with the righteousness of his cause, he summons... dwagons.

Here Stanley is upset at the loss of three more dwagons.

And the dramatic event here that prompted him to abandon Gobwin Knob and fly off on his own was the loss of... yes, more than a score of his best dwagons.

To anyone sensible and logical, finding a new base to work from is Stanley's ideal move if he wants to survive. To Stanley himself... finding fresh dwagons to tame is the logical move. They assisted him to greatness, they gave him his power. Before he does anything else whatsoever, he needs new dwagons. Once he has these, well, he can just find any place he likes and conquer it with his renewed flight of dwagons. Maybe even GK itself if it has been left too weakly fortified by the Alliance after what he presumes will be its fall. After all, he's done that before.

The only reason I personally am even considering the possibility he is headed for Faq is that I still think that the flight that attacked Faq consisted of wild dwagons, and that Stanley left a breeding stock behind after his first visit there. He'd consider a dragon breeding ground about a hundred times more important than nearly any city in his domain. If there's no dwagons there, he ain't going there.

[SteveMB]

The only reason I personally am even considering the possibility he is headed for Faq is that I still think that the flight that attacked Faq consisted of wild dwagons, and that Stanley left a breeding stock behind after his first visit there.

What is a "breeding stock"?

[The Old Hack]

What is a "breeding stock"?

I have absolutely no idea. But obviously wild dwagons exist, so they have to pop somehow. It seems reasonable that they would pop near a settled colony of dwagons. If this is not the case... I see no reason whatsoever for Stanley to go to the ruins of Faq. Unless, of course, he has an upper limit on how many he can tame at a time and left the excess behind.

[slayerx]

There would a claim of double-dealing REGARDLESS of the formal agreements.

And it would be a legitimate claim.

No one in the real world writes contracts that cover every possible contingency, both because this is obviously impossible and because it is accepted that good faith and the interpretation of a mytical "reasonable man" along with applicable precedent are the guiding principals in interpreting contracts.

Charlie was informed of the plan, he didn't say "No", he was capable of saying "No", he was on the Royal Crown side at the time so they can reasonably assume good faith in what he tells them or doesn't tell them. To not tell them THEN that he doesn't plan to follow their plan is in fact not good faith and this lack of good faith was at a time when he WAS on their side and WAS being paid by them.

If Charlie actually switches sides he wasn't acting as a good faith agent of the side he was both de facto and de jure a part of when he was told of the plan. And THAT bad faith would wreck his reputation.

Charlie didn't say "no" but he likely didn't say "yes" either; not to mention he couldn't give them a definite answer because he doesn't know whether or not Parson will still make a deal with him... hell we don't even know if Charlie gave an actual response... "appraise" means that he was informed but it does not mean that he acknowledged the plan. Afterall, just last comic we had Don King wanting the plan to be explained to him; Would Don king have given Ansom a "yes" if he was still unclear about the plan? doubtful... that man does not like to spend money... Hell, maybe Charlie sent Ansom a reply warning Ansom that once their contract was canceled Charlie would be free to accept any contract and Ansom just nodded along assuming he was just gonna take Don King's, and did not take into account the possibility that charlie would take on an enemy contract.

Fact of the matter is, Charlie's contracts are pretty specific in what they allow and do not allow... If it is not included in the contract then Charlie will not oblige; such as Magic detection spells, communications through thinkagram, and it even sounds like the offensive abilities of the archons is based on the contract. If Charlie based all of that off the contract then why would he go so far as to allow signing a new contract with another party for the sake of the first?... If the contract only states that charlie is working for jetstone than that is the ONLY side he is working for... until his contract ends, he is an ally of jetstone, not of the alliance.

Charlie did what he said he would do, stand by the contract and fulfill his half of the bargain... the moment the contract was cancelled he became a free agent

It's actually kind of funny you talk of "good faith agents" though... that's basically what Jaclyn was doing as she was providing Jillian with support that was not paid for... and when it comes down to it, most people on the forums attack Jaclyn for it

Er, what? Jillian was the heir to Faq; what might Wanda have told her that she didn't already know? (I suppose Wanda might have had some information about just what happened when Faq fell and about Stanley's contingency plan to escape there, but we have no reason to believe that she told Jillian anything along those lines.)

I think he was referring to wanda telling Jillian that Stanely never rebuilt Faq... This is something Jillian wouldn't know unless she actually paid a visit to Faq. However since she had no plans to reclaim her city, there was little point in her going there

1a) Jillian is also assuming that Wanda was telling the truth about FAQ

Well we have to recall that Jillian thought that Wanda was still on her side mostly and that the only reason she stayed in Gobwinknob was the result of a spell... Her personal conversations with wanda however helped Jillian believe that despite the spell, Wanda was still able to speak freely

[slayerx]

I have absolutely no idea. But obviously wild dwagons exist, so they have to pop somehow. It seems reasonable that they would pop near a settled colony of dwagons. If this is not the case... I see no reason whatsoever for Stanley to go to the ruins of Faq. Unless, of course, he has an upper limit on how many he can tame at a time and left the excess behind.

Fact of the matter is, Stanely needs a capitol. If he stays out in the field then he is doomed to be hunted down... The alliance is more than large enough to take on however many dwagons he has. With each battle he would loose more and more dwagons and it probably takes a long time for new ones to pop (as is the general case with powerful units in RTS games)... Stanely is gonna need more than just dwagons if he wants to keep his quest going.

Faq has excellent natural defenses. It can only be accessed by flying and tunnel units... the dwagons can take out any flying force, and the tunnels can be filled with infantry once Stanely makes em'... And outside of the tunnels inside the faq region he can create heavy units, the powerful kinda that can't travel through tunnels, to be defenders; this would make it so that, on the defence, Stanely can use such units while Ansom can not... With a capitol Stanely can make money and produce new units and rebuild his army and then restart his conquest

Not to mention for the "he can get new dwagons and conquer whatever he wants"... well wouldn't the easiest place be a city that has no defences(faq)? not to mention, to Stanely's knowledge, Anosm does not know about Faq; without jillian, it could have taken Ansom a long time to figure out where Stanely is and this could give Stanely much time to build a strong army... though if Stanely took over any other city, Ansom would know in an instant.

[teratorn]

What is a "breeding stock"?

Good question, since it seems dwagons do not pop by the usual means (that is spending schmuckers). Maybe all of them were created at the time of the titans, or maybe they are produced naturally in same places, or they are somehow generated by other dwagons. FAQ may be covered in dwagon eggs, or crawling with dwagon larva eating anyone who gets close enough...

[slayerx]

Good question, since it seems dwagons do not pop by the usual means (that is spending schmuckers). Maybe all of them were created at the time of the titans, or maybe they are produced naturally in same places, or they are somehow generated by other dwagons. FAQ may be covered in dwagon eggs, or crawling with dwagon larva eating anyone who gets close enough...

Or dwagons could be produced the same way as any other unit... they just "pop" as full grown dwagons. A "Dwagon nest/lair" for instance may have the special property that it can pop dwagons... there are no parents, no eggs, and no young dwagons... Every so many turns the lair would just Pop a new dwagon, and there is probably a set limit to how many dwagons can be in a lair (after which, dwagons must be removed from the lair for new ones to pop)...

[Ptorquemada]

He wants Parson.

Ahhh, fanfic...

Erk. Wow. So not what I was thinking. Eww.

[Lamech]

Er, what? Jillian was the heir to Faq; what might Wanda have told her that she didn't already know? (I suppose Wanda might have had some information about just what happened when Faq fell and about Stanley's contingency plan to escape there, but we have no reason to believe that she told Jillian anything along those lines.)

(Or did you mean "Ansom is assuming that Jillian is telling the truth about Faq"?)

As you can see on the very next page the whole "Stanley has not rebuilt my cities". If those cities are alive and well there could be a heavily defended choke point, if not a heavily defended city. In retrospect I probably should have typed "about FAQ being in ruins."
And slayerx already adressed that, shouldn't have been so eager...

Also slayerx is right that FAQ would be really easy to heavily defend. Actually the tunnels would have been near invincible if Stanley brought Sizemore. The gobwin bonus those heavy golems, and collapsing tunnels. And even getting in through air would be very difficult.

[dr pepper]

Ahhh, fanfic...

Charlie/Parson: My Turn or Yours?

[Dragonath]

I think Charlie wants Maggie for the trade to bolster his thinkamancy powers....

[The Old Hack]

Good question, since it seems dwagons do not pop by the usual means (that is spending schmuckers). Maybe all of them were created at the time of the titans, or maybe they are produced naturally in same places, or they are somehow generated by other dwagons. FAQ may be covered in dwagon eggs, or crawling with dwagon larva eating anyone who gets close enough...

Hrm. Possibly they are like the gobwins and marbits in that they may have no cities or the like, but that simply their establishing a colony someplace results in more wild dwagons popping there. Of course it is also possible that they always and only pop in certain locations created by the Titans, I suppose.

[Winston]

I think it is much more likely that in keeping with strategy game mechanics, possessing the hammer just allows Stanley's side to pop dwagon units. Considering how powerful they are, they probably take a long time to pop however.
Being that dwagons are not normal city units, Stanley might not need a capital to pop them. Or it even might be that the hammer is linked to GK and thus he is only able to attune to it because his side owns GK. That would make for an easy explanation of why a "tool" like Stanley is able to use his hammer but Ansom can't use the pliers. Ansom's side just doesn't control the right capital. I think it would be hilarious if Stanley fought his way to Faq letting GK fall, started his new side and then discovered that his hammer no longer worked for him.

Winston

[teratorn]

Charlie/Parson: My Turn or Yours?

Charlie: show me again that special sword of yours...

[SteveMB]

I think it is much more likely that in keeping with strategy game mechanics, possessing the hammer just allows Stanley's side to pop dwagon units.

The Arkenhammer's power is described as the ability to "tame dwagons" in several places (the cast page; Sizemore's description of Stanley's rise to power). That phrasing implies that it enables Stanley to bring existing dwagons onto his side, not create new ones. Where they come from is unknown; it may simply be characteristic of certain types of terrain or whatever that there's a chance of encountering a wild dwagon.

[x1372]

I don't think anyone's said this, but applying Occam's razor, Charlie could get a lot out of this without any risk.

Step 1: Inform Parson of the alliance's plans with regard to croaking Stanley. Charlie is currently not allied to anyone and thus has no reason to to withhold this information.

Step 2: Parson informs Stanley of the alliance's plans at the choke point, allowing Stanley to avoid the ambush, at the very least until they can fix the foolamancer.

Step 3: Make the alliance with Don King as planned.

Now Charlie has several advantages.

1) Parson is indebted to him, which he can use at a later date if parson survives.
2) Stanley owes Parson. Based on the first step, Since Parson owes Charlie, this might help Charlie as well.
3) Archons are not at risk. Even with Don King warlord support, odds are Charlie is going to lose at least an archon or two bringing down Stanley, his dwagons, and the knights. Since he already lost one archon, it's safer to avoid risking more.
4) Charlie still gets paid by Don King. In fact, since Stanley hasn't showed up and may do so next turn, he might get paid for multiple turns.
5) Charlie has technically not broken any contract in any way, so his reputation is not at risk.
6) Ansom and the rest of the alliance have no way of knowing that Charlie gave Parson this information, and has no reason to suspect anyone (except possibly Jillian) of a double-cross when Stanley gets away.

On the risk/reward scale, this is very strongly in Charlie's favor. He doesn't need any complicated plans. He doesn't even need to sell Parson any information. A little free information and its all win-win for Charlie.

[The Old Hack]

On the risk/reward scale, this is very strongly in Charlie's favor. He doesn't need any complicated plans. He doesn't even need to sell Parson any information. A little free information and its all win-win for Charlie.

It's certainly a possibility, and what is more, it would also be likely to prolong the conflict -- as pointed out by others, always a good thing for mercenaries. While we still do not know much about Charlie himself, he strikes me as more than capable and ruthless enough to make such a play. (As an aside, his out and out switching sides might be possible, but... I have this feeling that Charlie has something a bit subtler in mind. I guess we'll see.)

[Oslecamo]

Diabolic plan to get the most money of the situation.

I love it. He ends up being paid for both sides whitout risking his reputation.

Specially because like we already saw, Charlie doesn't care much about loyalties outside of paper. "You get what you pay for".

However, I still defend that Charlie is after the mathmancy thingy. From what I understood, there isn't really an artifact o'mat. Artifacts are rare stuff, and comanders are ready to spend large resources to get their hands on one of them.

[Freederick]

I don't think anyone's said this...

I think someone has.

[fendrin]

Pardon me while I go into 'educator' mode...

...applying Occam's razor...

I don't think it means what you think it means. (*SNRK*)

Ockham's Razor (excerpted from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy's entry on William of Ockham):

...Ockham's “nominalism” ... is often viewed as derived from a common source: an underlying concern for ontological parsimony. This is summed up in the famous slogan known as “Ockham's Razor,” often expressed as “Don't multiply entities beyond necessity.”[26] Although the sentiment is certainly Ockham's, that particular formulation is nowhere to be found in his texts. Moreover, as usually stated, it is a sentiment that virtually all philosophers, medieval or otherwise, would accept; no one wants a needlessly bloated ontology. The question, of course, is which entities are needed and which are not.

Ockham's Razor, in the senses in which it can be found in Ockham himself, never allows us to deny putative entities; at best it allows us to refrain from positing them in the absence of known compelling reasons for doing so. In part, this is because human beings can never be sure they know what is and what is not “beyond necessity”; the necessities are not always clear to us. But even if we did know them, Ockham would still not allow that his Razor allows us to deny entities that are unnecessary. For Ockham, the only truly necessary entity is God; everything else, the whole of creation, is radically contingent through and through. In short, Ockham does not accept the Principle of Sufficient Reason.

Nevertheless, we do sometimes have sufficient methodological grounds for positively affirming the existence of certain things. Ockham acknowledges three sources for such grounds (three sources of positive knowledge). As he says in Sent. I, dist. 30, q. 1: “For nothing ought to be posited without a reason given, unless it is self-evident (literally, known through itself) or known by experience or proved by the authority of Sacred Scripture.”

Oversimplified and in more common parlance:
"The simplest explanation is best."

Note that it does not in any way prove or disprove anything. It is simply a tool for choosing the 'best' plausible theory.