Diplomacy - Subterfuge

[Kalirren]

I can assure you that my decision to move Marseilles to Burgundy as opposed to Paris (which would have been the more traditional Maginot) was fully and accurately calculated. Thank you very much for your confidence in the matter.

Good luck in Greece, Aergoth; I hear the Austrians are panicking, and won't much interfere.

[Moody the Wise]

Aergoth -

You can call me on whatever you want. The idea that I'm Turkey is still entirely plausible. Turkey has just as much reason to talk to Austria as anyone else that you might suppose me to be.

Spoilered for space because it turned into a rather lengthy discussion of French and Italian strategy

Spoiler

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As for France, the orders given, when considered alongside England's orders, imply a strong Anglo-French alliance. Indeed, we may even see Mat swing down to Spain (sc) this Fall to open up the Italian front as early as possible. Furthermore, Early Leader Syndrome is an ugly thing. France has one of the better shots at picking up 3 SCs in 1901, but is it really wise? A four-SC France (or 5, if France can pick up Belgium, which is unlikely if Germany sees the writing on the wall, unless England wants to support the move from the North Sea) is much less threatening, and can continue to work with England against Germany without getting England too nervous, as England likely ends the year at 4 SCs, 5 if he or she is very lucky, or 6 only with a miracle (like France opening to the Channel and agreeing to convoy England's army to Belgium while supporting the move from Burgundy). Furthermore, the moves France gave are exactly the sort of quirky but not suicidal moves that I predicted we would see to help establish legitimacy.

Now, as to your analysis of Italian strategy ... I think the move to Piedmont is overrated. At best, it means France ends the year with an army in Marseilles, unless you have a very risky France who makes the gamble to leave Marseilles open. This begins a long period of antagonism with France, unless England and Germany have allied against France and France forgives Italy because France finds itself suddenly in need of all the friends it can get. Of course, if this is the case, Italy is of more use to France in Tyrolia than in Piedmont. An Italy that has moved to Tyrolia has the flexibility of going to Munich, Vienna, or Trieste, any of which has a higher chance of paying off than Marseilles, for reasons given above. If France and England turn out to be allied, Italy may earn a stay of execution on France's Italian campaign by helping EF take Munich. In the event of an EG, Italy is prepared to jump right into bailing out France. If things in Western Europe remain unclear, Italy can hold its strong tactical position or move on Austria, depending on conditions in the Southeast.

[Aergoth]

France, unless they ally with Italy (I'd consider this risky) has to go through italy at some point. The progression of events, unless France is insane or led by an idiot, is that France takes spain and portugal. They then move into the waters adjacent Italy, and the two being fighting. A move to spain from Marseilles gives France an assurance of 2 SCs, while they could potentially gain (as you said) 4 or 5 (assuming an insane/stupid/otherwise occupied leader of Germany) The Italians then exploit this, and have a (relatively) safe SC to add to building a fleet, as well as a reason to fight with the French beyond " 'ey, you get da heck outta my pool!" Thus is progress made. The only problem is that this particular movement is helped greatly by an alliance with Austria, because otherwise, you're forced expose your neck to them, so to speak.

@Kalirren, Interesting observation. I'd love to hear what sparked it.

@Moody I'd argue it isn't. Austria and Turkey are fighting for the same piece of the pie. Turkey starts in a corner, with Russia above it. In order to survive any length of time, turkey has to be able to expand rapidly (projections allow for a 2 SC capture in 1901 if the person playing Austria is sloppy/slow on the uptake) I'd have to say that Austria and Turkey fighting is inevitable. Get it over with at the start. Austria and Italy can ally because they don't have to fight over the south-central west, and they have a common enemy in Turkey. Austria and Italy can expand north east and south west respectively.

[Shular]

Hmm. It's quiet. Is it safe to assume negotiations have now moved to private messages?

[Aergoth]

Negotiations have been in private messages since page 1. We just have gotten past the commentary. And since it's the weekend, people are chilling places other than the internet.

[Shular]

Lol. Except you?

[Aergoth]

What I'm doing requires me to be at the computer anyways. I'm contemplating world domination anyhow.

[Daniel M]

No one loves me enough to message me.

Well 1 person loves me

Can someone remind me when i get to build and how to convoy please ?

[Aergoth]

Building is in winter, which is the move after fall. Convoy, grab jDip, it should help you phrase the order.

[Shular]

For convoying, give the order for the land unit, including the sear route to be taken, and order the fleet to convoy that move. For example:

A Lon - Eng - Bel
F Eng C A Lon - Bel

This would order the fleet in the English channel to convoy the army from London to Belgium.

Convoys are only disrupted if the convoying fleet is dislodged. A failed move leaves the army where it starts. You can also order multiple fleets to complete a convoy:

A Lon - Eng - MAO - Spa
F Eng C A Lon - Spa
F MAO C A Lon - Spa

I'm fairly lenient, so you can probably get away with not including the intermediary steps in the army's orders, but if there's a chance of misinterpretation it's better to be as explicit in the orders as possible.

[Shular]

Oh, and

24 HOUR WARNING for Fall 1901

Builds will be due Monday night.

[Shular]

6 Hour Warning

[Aergoth]

Very interesting. I think all of the alliances are cemented.

[Shular]

Fall 1901 Results



Turkey:
Bul - Gre: OK
Con - Bul: OK
Ank - Con: OK

Russia:
War H: OK
Mos - StP: OK
Fin - Swe: OK
Rum H: OK

Italy:
Tyr - Vie: Bounce with Vie;
Rom - Ven: OK
Ion - Tun: OK

Germany:
Kie - Den: Bounce with Yor;
Mun - Sil: OK
Hol S Bur - Bel: OK

France:
Bur - Bel: OK
Par - Bur: OK
MAt - Spa: OK

England:
Nrg - Nwy: OK
Yor - Nth - Den: Bounce with Kie;
Nth C Yor - Den: OK

Austria:
Tri - Adr: OK
Vie - Tri: Bounce with Ser;
Ser - Tri: Bounce with Vie;



*** Adjudicated with Diplo 2.8 ***


Turkey gains Bul.
Russia gains Rum.
England gains Nwy.
Germany gains Hol.
France gains Bel.
France gains Spa.
Austria gains Ser.
Turkey gains Gre.
Russia gains Swe.
Italy gains Tun.

Turkey may build 2 units.
Russia may build 2 units.
Italy may build 1 unit.
Germany may build 1 unit.
France may build 2 units.
England may build 1 unit.
Austria may build 1 unit.

Build Orders due:
Monday, November 16th, 23:00 EST

[Psionic Dog]

Requesting audience with Turkey.

[Shular]

While I'm here:

8 HOUR 38 MINUTE WARNING!

[Aergoth]

I think you could have rounded down.

[Shular]

Builds 1901



Austria:
A Tri
England:
F Lon
France:
F Mar
F Bre
Germany:
A Mun
Italy:
A Rom
Russia:
A Mos
A Sev
Turkey:
A Smy
A Ank

Edit: Oops...forgot something:

Spring 1902 orders due:
Thursday, November 20th, 23:00

As mentioned before, in year one I pointed out errors in orders. That will no longer be the case. If you ask how to write an order I'll tell you, but I won't point out miswritten orders.

[Kalirren]

I thought I would include some press as usual, but I'm too lazy to think up anything actual, so as a gesture of apology, i offer you the following most amusing short, which I assumed would appeal to this crowd of gamers in particular:

The Coast of Moscow
by Allan B. Calhamer, inventor of Diplomacy

Spoiler

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None of us was surprised when Russia ordered the raise of a Fleet in Moscow; but we were when he insisted it were legal. In the ensuing discussion Russia indicated further that he intended to move the Fleet coastwise to Sevastopol; and then, on the understanding that Sevastopol had only one coast, to move it on to Rumania, the Black Sea, or Armenia.

At least it became clear what he was up to. Congestion in the Don River Shipyards being what it was, he hoped to raise fleets twice as fast as usual for his southern frontier, by building them in Moscow.

I think the Northern powers rather approved of the idea. Austria-Hungary was dubious; Turkey, aghast.

"In order for Moscow to have a coast", said Turkey, "it seems either you have to follow one or the other of two theories. Either Moscow has a coast because it simply looks that way on the map, or else it has a coast because it borders on a body of water, that is, the Caspian."

"Sounds like a distinction without a difference" said Italy.

"If we follow the first theory" resumed Turkey, "that Moscow has a coast because it looks that way on the map, then what of Sevastopol? Certainly Sevastopol must have two coasts, because it looks that way on the map. Furthermore, since these two coasts are not named on the board, it may be impossible for Russia to raise Fleets at Sevastopol at all, Raise F Sev being void due to ambiguity.

"If we follow the second theory" Turkey went on, "we have to ask what the situation is if Moscow borders a body of water."

"Topologically" said Germany, "nothing at all borders on the Caspian, since you can't move to it. Therefore, Moscow has no coast."

Russia broke in. "Rule VII. 1. does not say that an unnamed space cannot be a body of water. It says, merely, that `Units may not move...to any location not specifically named on the board.'"

"But is the Caspian a body of water?" asked A-H. "Rule VI. 2. in the 1971 rulebook, says `The seas are divided into "bodies of water" by light, solid black lines.' There are no such lines in the Caspian."

"Are there such lines in the Black?" Russia challenged.

"Sure," replied A-H. "On the 1961 map, there is a very short black line separating the Black Sea from the Bosporus. The line is not a line from the base map; it's thicker than the coastlines, and there would be no reason for it on the base map."

"But does that line," asked Russia, "`divide the seas into bodies of water' as it says in Rule VI. 2.? It divides the Black only from Constantinople, which is not part of the seas."

"Maybe Constantinople is part of the seas, because Fleets can move through it" offered A-H.

"The trouble is," replied Russia, "Constantinople is clearly called a `province' in Rule VII. 3. a., Kiel and Constantinople. Nowhere does it say that Constantinople is part of the seas. It just says that there is a waterway through it."

"If Moscow borders on a body of water, the Caspian," said Turkey, "then so does Sevastopol, which then has two coasts. Is it then impossible to move a fleet there at all, because each coast is a `location not specifically named on the board', within the purview of Rule VII. 1.?"

"To employ the purview of Rule VII. 1.," said France, "it is necessary first to have a clear understanding of that purview. If `location' should seem merely the name of a province, then, of course, it would be permissible to move there, since Sevastopol is named on the map."

"All that doesn't matter," maintained Russia, "because Sevastopol doesn't have two coasts, because it isn't named as a `Province Having Two Coasts' in Rule VII. 3. b. Furthermore, Rule XIII. 2. says `If Russia builds a Fleets in St. Petersburg, he must specify the coast...'. No mention is made of Sevastopol, hence Sev. must only have one coast."

"Yes," replied Turkey, "but there are two ways it could only have one coast: because the two apparent coasts are one, or because you can't play on the Caspian coast. But if the Caspian is a body of water, then Sevastopol borders on two bodies of water, leading to various difficulties."

Russia answered, "Well, Albania borders on both Adriatic and Ionian, yet it has only one coast."

"Sure," said Turkey, "but Adriatic and Ionian are adjacent. Caspian and Black aren't."

"How do we know that?" asked France.

"We can see it!" exclaimed Turkey.

"Are we back to the appearance theory?" asked England.

"Distinction without a difference," murmured Italy.

"You have to use appearances to determine the mere gross topology of the board," spluttered Turkey.

"Maybe we should have a list of all possible topological links," said Germany.

"That wouldn't be official," England exclaimed. "Then, there's the danger that when you re-state anything, you may make mistakes in the restatement. Third, it seems like you would have to decide this case in order to make up the list."

Then France offered, "We may have a solution in the wording of Rule VII. 1.: `The Fleet may move to an adjacent coastal province only if it is adjacent along the coastline, so that the vessels could move down the coast to that province.' It is sufficiently obvious that the vessels can't get from the Caspian to the Black."

"I's the Potemkin villages all over again," England observed. "They told the Tsar they could build Fleets in Moscow and go down the Volga to fight the Turks. They knew he wouldn't know that there was no way the vessels could get to the Black."

Russia answered. "But we're not talking about a move from one coastal province to another. Sevastopol is one province."

"Then it's like Spain," said France. "We always have to go out from the same coast we went in at."

Russia rejoined, "But it doesn't have two coasts; Rules VII. 3. b. and XIII. 2. It has one coast, and we're glad to go in at any point, and come out at any other point on that single coast."

"What if Russia wanted to build a Fleet in St. Petersburg, on the coast of Lake Ladoga?" asked France.

Russia answered coolly. "The rules clearly state that St. Pete has two coasts, not three. Since they do not mention Sev., we have to assume it has only one."

"Since Sevastopol is not mentioned," said Italy, "it might have six."

"You can see it doesn't have six!" exclaimed Russia.

"Appearances, appearances," said Italy. "You can see it has two."

"Which bolloxes everything as far as raising Fleets in Sevastopol is concerned, if nothing else." added Germany.

"Not quite," said Turkey. "Russia could always escape ambiguity by writing Raise F Sev (Black Sea Coast), invoking Rule VII. 4., `A badly written order, which nevertheless can only have one meaning, must be followed.' Incidentally, his raise last turn was invalid, because he failed to specify the coast. That Fleet should come off."

At this point England remarked that in Hugo's Ninety-Three the Marquis de Lantenac, in a single hearing, ordered one and the same man to be decorated for bravery and shot for dereliction of duty. "In somewhat the same spirit," he said, "I suggest we recommend Russia for a Rusty Bolt, for coming up with the weirdest rule interpretation in many years, while nevertheless, at one and the same time, ruling out any use of the alleged Caspian or its alleged coasts."

And they all agreed, four to two, with one abstention.

[Shular]

19 Hour 30 Minute Warning!

[Shular]

3 HOUR WARNING!

Were the boards out for long (I just got home)? If so, I can give an extension, but I'd prefer to keep it at 11pm so that I can process the orders before I go to bed.

[Aergoth]

It was out for quite a while, 9:30 EST at least.

[Psionic Dog]

How in the world did you get an 8:05 post in?

I kept getting "down for maintenance" messages from 5:00 PM EST to 10:30 PM EST, a which point I gave up and went to bed.

[Shular]

I must have fluked out. But yes, I was also unable to get back in before I went to bed. I'm missing one set of orders, so I will extend the deadline to either 23:00 tonight, or whenever the last set of orders comes in, whichever comes first.

[Aergoth]

Ehem...

PH33R t3h cr45h

[Shular]

Spring 1902 Results!


Turkey:
Con - Aeg: OK
Smy - Con: OK
Bul S Gre - Ser: OK
Gre - Ser: OK

Russia:
Rum S Ser - Bul: Void;
StP - Fin: OK
Mos - StP: OK
Sev - Arm: OK
War H: OK
Swe H: OK

Italy:
Tun - Wes: OK
Rom - Apu: OK
Tyr - Tri: Bounce with Tri;
Ven S Tyr - Tri: Cut by Adr;

Germany:
Sil - Boh: OK
Mun S Sil - Boh: OK
Kie S Mun H: OK
Hol - Nth: Bounce with Lon;

France:
Bre - Eng: OK
Mar - GoL: OK
Spa - Por: OK
Bel H: OK
A Bur S -> Munich: Failed - ambiguous...not sure if inteded to support Mun hold, or miswritten support for a unit moving into Mun

England:
Nth - Ska: OK
Lon - Nth: Bounce with Hol;
Yor - Lon: Bounce with Lon;
Nwy H: OK

Austria:
Ser S Rum - Bul: Void; Dislodged by Gre 2:1;
Adr - Ven: Bounce with Ven;
Tri S Adr - Ven: Cut by Tyr;
Vie - Tyr: Bounce with Tyr;


Austria may retreat army in Ser to: Alb Bud

Retreat order due: Saturday, 18:00 (only one, so can post retreat here or PM)
Fall 1902 orders due Tuesday, Nov 25th, 23:00

[Shular]

Headlines!

Denmark Celebrates Continued Independence!

Plenty of Support, But No Movement into Bulgaria, Costs Austria Serbia

Russia Invades Turkey

Expose: France and Italy - Two ships, passing in the night.

[Shular]

Err. Just realized posting retreat would give away identity of Austria. Better PM me the retreat.

[Aergoth]

Oh don't worry, we won't tell anyone!

[Shular]

Austrian army Serbia retreats to Budapest

New Map:



Fall 1902 orders due
Tuesday, Nov 25th, 23:00