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2015-04-04, 02:58 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
Messages cleared. I haven't really been checking this thread much during the past few days, or spending much time on GiantITP in general except to sort of keep up on my games, sorry. But I'll try to be more vigilant henceforward.
I'm going to vote Reject because I don't feel good about Eloel saying he wanted to vote Accept a while ago when he knew Troll was on the team, and because intuitively, I don't fully trust jojo. I'll see if I can dig up some posts to justify that a little later.Last edited by Eonas; 2015-04-04 at 02:59 PM. Reason: Fixed unclear sentence
This is the end. Unless, possibly, it isn't.
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2015-04-05, 06:00 PM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-05, 07:33 PM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-05, 10:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2013
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
I 've voted and am waiting.
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2015-04-06, 01:56 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2015
Re: Avalon: Somerset
I too have already voted (both publicly and privately).
We might be waiting for votes or voting results but discussion activity has really been quite minimal for this game. I think I know why.
For some of the loyalists, they seem content to just silently observe and wait for some kind of evidence to fall on their laps. However, I fear this course of (in)action might ultimately lead to our downfall so please judge carefully the balance between when to speak up and when to silently observe.
For some of the minions, they seem happy with all this confusion as loyalists appear undecided on whom to trust and whom to denounce. So they choose to just stand aside and watch us crumble from within.
To the loyalists,
I know (well actually "I hope" is more appropriate) everyone is doing their own analysis and trying to determine who are loyal and who are minions. I also know that current data may not yet be enough for you to completely solve everything but please just keep at it and continue eliminating possibilities and looking at probabilities. I have a feeling that you will soon have a clearer picture of where everyone stands. I just hope it's not too late yet when that time comes.
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2015-04-06, 02:08 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2006
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
Here's my argument for why I think that Eloel, jojolagger, and rofltrollcoptor are Minions. (It's a long post. Spoilered to save space.)
Spoiler: First & SecondEloel and rofltrollcoptor. Super suspicious how he needed to be persuaded to give up the downlow on rofltrollcoptor's alignment. It took 1/4 of the day, and then he worded it to, in my way of reading it, attempt to throw us off. To make it hard to believe. Now, why would he do that, you might ask? Simple, to throw us off rofltrollcoptor's scent. Since he was part of the team that twice voted to fail the mission, he threw himself under the bus to dissuade the guilt of his fellow minion.
There is also these two statements, one made after the first mission was declared a success. The second made after the second mission was given the green light to fail or succeed.
And that, to my mind, takes care of 2 of the 3 that I do not trust 100%.
Spoiler: Thirdjojolagger is a bit trickier. But in a way, it's simple. First, he was on the second mission. One of the unfortunate guilty by associations. But that's not all.
This vaguely sounds like what is happening to me. Someone is trying to declare me a minion with bad evidence. What have I done? I asked to be on the second mission. And, horror among horrors, I Approved the first two missions. But then, so did: Axl, jojolagger, Duck999, & Legato Endless.
If you remove Axl and jojolagger, then that's still three who up voted both times.
I find this one odd only for the inclusion of myself and Eloel. As I've said, I believe there is an attempt to frame me as a minion. And perhaps it was also an attempt to muddy the Lady of the Lake's waters as well. So, with that in mind, it may be possible that Eloel is Oberron. Why else would jojolagger want to include him without mentioning it was due to him being the Lady of the Lake. That was the reasoning most others gave, wasn't it?
Notice how now jojolagger is pushing Count Troll as loyal? Eloel hasn't even decided to look at yet, and rofltrollcoptor's already being considered loyal.
He doesn't say it directly, but it's there. "I think Troll is right....." ".... Lady goes to someone loyal."
Spoiler: Something else to considerRofltrollcoptor seems awfully happy with this result, right?
Pushing himself as loyal now. Which, I suppose we all do. But also he's pushing the suspicion on Duck, Legato, and myself. This has the psychological effect of placing heavy suspicion on the three of us just for voting Yes twice.
Here, I state almost the same thing as rofltrollcoptor. We found out that Team 2 had at least two minions on the team. That is a lot of information to get.
((Also, at the time I didn't see a reason to not trust rofltrollcoptor. Now I do.))
Spoiler: But.....That's all it took? Eonas defending me with the simple question: "but why Lex-Kat, Logic?" Really?
Wait! Did.... Did Rofltrollcoptor just defend me? He's guilty!! Get a firing squadron, stat!!
I want to know where it is that Eonas supported or ever argued against me being a minion. It's just not there!
Spoiler: The nail in Jojo's coffin
Spoiler: Finally, thisI asked it once before, and didn't get an answer. Why am I tied to Duck's fate?
And why is it that Legato is getting a pass? Because he posts more often than I do? Yes, that's sure to get you the minions.
So yes, there is a fourth I'm suspicious of: Logic.
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2015-04-06, 03:12 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
hate tablet posting, will be short.
Suggesting you and eloel was becasuse i hadn't played in a prior avalon game with you two, and eonas(the third in that category), had already got some activity.
Agreeing with trolls LotL targeting was pure math. (66% to loyal in Bag Two > 50% to loyal in Bag One)
Eonas questioned in a way that felt combative, and i still think he's a minion (rejecting his own team, other stuff).
Trolls question seemed more of requesting clarification, and as you have already noted, he felt you worthy of suspicion.
I didn't start trusting you there. Either I shut up a minion or I got a loyalist to take a good look instead of rushing around wildly. And we had gone too long without an IC post.
I think that answers everything claimed at me.
You seem to ignore the math behind choices or statements in a few cases. And state a suspicion of eloel is oberon, which would indicate that if me and troll were minions, that a minion freely picked a team with two minions.
I want to see what team troll suggests, hopefully clearing this up a bit. Reactions might be better than the actual team list.
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2015-04-06, 04:43 AM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-06, 10:11 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2012
Re: Avalon: Somerset
@Lex-Kat.
Yes, I shifted suspicion onto you, Duck, and Legato because you up-voted a mission twice in a row that you were not on. Upvoting missions that fail is a bad thing.
I hoped someone else would have realized this since its gonna to sound like a suspiciously specific denial coming from me, but I will point it out anyways:
If Eloel and I were both minions, he would have called me good. You are right in that there is a world where it makes sense for a minion to throw himself under the bus to cover for another minion, but this was not the right situation for it. Neither of us were suspected by the table. If he called me good, none of you guys would have doubted it. In the world that he calls me good, it makes two people be respected by the table. Instead he has called attention to both of us.
Jojo and I are not both minions. He outlined his reasons well enough.
I think Occam's razor is most applicable here. Eloel is likely a new player who screwed up. That happens. There are things in this game you do not do. Like not putting yourself in a mission without a good reason. Or Percival publicly accusing another player of being Morgana. Hiding the Lady result is one of them.
So, this next team proposal is really high stakes situation. If it fails, suspicion is going to fall on me. You will all distrust the Lady result that comes from me, and things will generally go poorly.
I want all hands on deck for this.
@Axl, Eonas, Jojo
Assuming that Eloel is a minion, there must be one more minion in your group. I want you to guess who it is, even if you are still uncertain. I will reiterate that downvoting a mission is not suspicious behavior at all. In fact, I believe it makes you less suspicious.
@Lex-Kat, Legato, Duck
Do you think one of the people in your group is a minion, and if so, why?
I am especially interested in hearing from Legato. You make think that your behavior last game made you an asset to the minions, but in my mind you played it correctly. Tanar was the one who misplayed. The point where everyone inside the mission approved of it and everyone outside the mission downvoted it was when you had enough information to figure out what was going on. Your voting pattern made perfect sense for you being Merlin too. So talking about whats going through your head isn't a bad thing. There are 6 loyalists, some of us should be able to cover for Merlin. In fact, in a game where people are being talkative, that gives Merlin a chance to speak up without drawing attention from the Minions.
@Tanar, Logic
At this point, I am assuming that the two of you are good. If one you is evil, I am screwed. That will mean that more then one loyalist outside of the mission upvoted the failing mission 2. In that case we are all screwed anyways.Last edited by Rofltrollcopter; 2015-04-06 at 10:24 AM.
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2015-04-06, 11:11 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
I thought I had replied to this: because you and Duck had voted the same way, and there are only two minions among those not attending quest 2, and I had concluded (perhaps incorrectly) that you and Duck were more suspicious than Legato. If I thought there were three minion in this group, all three of you would be under my suspicion.
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2015-04-06, 12:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
I was pointing out that if Eloel was oberon and Troll and I were minions like Lex claimed, my team selection would have been moronic.
Was pointing out lex was wrong. The only reason I know we can't both be minions is because I'm loyal.
Downvoting your own out of nowhere seems wrong to me, the second downvote when the team had already proven itself once also seems wrong. The declaration of hatred only pushes it further. I suspect Eonas.
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2015-04-06, 12:50 PM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-06, 07:07 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
Sorry all, got back late after a few hours of driving yesterday. Update time.
Carellus simply stares at jojolagger. "I see that you were surely invited for your ability to inspire your comrades. Sir Troll, I believe it is up to you now."
Approved: (2)
Sir Myles (jojolagger)
Lord of Shallot (Eloel)
Rejected: (8)
Lord Edward Ruthven (Eonas)
Sir Axl (axl)
Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter)
Sir Tristram (Tanar Aerdoth)
Sir Immer (Duck999)
Lady Lexington (Lex-Kat)
Sir Galavant (Legato Endless)
Sir Fidious (Logic)
Quest 1 Quest 2 Quest 3 Quest 4 Quest 5 3 4 4 5 (two fails) 5 Lord Edward Ruthven
Sir Axl
Sir MylesLord Edward Ruthven
Sir Axl
Sir Myles
Lord of Shallot---
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---Success
Success
SuccessFail
Fail
Success
Success---
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---
---
Leader
Lady of the LakeLord Edward Ruthven Sir Axl Sir Myles Sir Troll Sir Tristram Sir Immer Lady Lexington Sir Galavant Sir Fidious Lord of Shallot Eonas Axl jojolagger Rofltrollcopter Tanar Aerdoth Duck999 Lex-Kat Legato Endless Logic Eloel
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2015-04-06, 07:25 PM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-06, 08:54 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2013
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
Oh wow, I didn't realize how little support there was for this mission!
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2015-04-06, 09:30 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
This looked closer to a 50/50 split from what I gathered from the posts. Apparently I failed my Gather Information check.
There's a case to be made here for anyone who thinks Troll is innocent but forces him to pick a team before using the scry. Not that I'll make it, but it's there.
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2015-04-06, 10:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2012
Re: Avalon: Somerset
I'm not locking this in yet, I will lock it in about 12 hours from now if I don't hear a persuasive counter-argument, but I am thinking of going with Eonas, myself, Tanar, and Logic.
Essentially, everyone who down-voted mission 2.
I think that in mission 1 and mission 2, all of the known minions (Morgana, Mordred, Assassin) thought they had the perfect setup: 1 bad person while everyone else was a good person. That setup was worth having the minions outside of the mission approve of it. Hence Lex-Kat, Duck, and Legato's double approves. (To clarify, right now I think 2 of them are minions and one of them is misguided, this isn't an accusation. If I think you are a minion, you will know.)
Unfortunately, Oberon (Eloel) managed to get onto the mission. That screwed things up for them.
The reason I like Eonas is that in the scenario where only one khown minion was in mission 2 (which was quite likely) I don't see a good reason for that minion to down-vote the mission, especially when it would not look suspicious at all to approve of a mission that you are participating in.
Yes, I am deliberately ignoring some of the discussions that have gone on. People have said this is a game of deception. That's not the whole truth. I would say that Avalon is a game of 80% logic and 20% deception. I like to evaluate people based on votes and mission choices. If that doesn't get me enough information, then I will attempt the almost impossible task of reading complete strangers over the internet.Last edited by Rofltrollcopter; 2015-04-06 at 10:10 PM.
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2015-04-06, 11:52 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
"I made a suggestion and gave people the chance to decide by committee. Obviously nobody is happy with it."
It does follow the ideal Bag One and Bag Two selection odds, but I'm still convinced Eonas is a minion. The mission will fail.
I'll be voting no, and if it runs anyway I'll still have my "I told you so" 's to keep me warm.Last edited by jojolagger; 2015-04-06 at 11:54 PM. Reason: Add IC
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2015-04-07, 12:02 AM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-07, 01:10 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2015
Re: Avalon: Somerset
"Don't tease Sir Myles now dear Carellus. Surely you did not expect us to agree with each other so quickly after the disaster we just endured in the mountains."
OOC:
@Rofltrollcopter, from my pure mathematical perspective, this is the same team that jojolagger proposed (One not-me player from quest 2 plus troll/tanar/logic). However, I sort of asked jojolagger for some sort of contingency plan, so I'll also ask you now.
If your proposed group goes in mission 3 and it fails (like the math from my perspective suggest), we'd have three groups with at least 1 minion each (axl/jojolagger/eloel, eonas/troll/tanar/logic, legato/duck/lex), with one of those group having 2 minions. Do you have a plan on how we can rally for a loyalist-win or will it be basically game over with a minion victory if that happens?
On the other hand, having minion/s reject this early does give me pause and make me suspect that there is a chance that this might be an all-loyal team.
@Legato, Duck, Logic, Tanar,
Can you explain your reasons for downvoting jojolagger's team proposal?
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2015-04-07, 08:08 AM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-07, 10:57 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
@Axl
I'm going to repeat my earlier question. From your perspective, you know 100% that Jojo and/or Eonas is a minion. Which one is more suspicious?
If this mission fails, I will no longer have the confidence of the table. It's Percival's job to win the game at that point.
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2015-04-07, 11:29 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
I felt like jojo might be a minion. Though now, I wonder about all those reject votes. At least 2 of the minions rejected this. Was it because they didn't want to stand out or because it was a good mission?
- - - Updated - - -
I feel confident of Troll's proposal. Eonas does seem likely loyal to me.
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2015-04-07, 01:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2012
Re: Avalon: Somerset
For the sake of keeping the game moving, I'm going to make this official.
Eonas, Troll, Tanar, Logic
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2015-04-07, 03:44 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2013
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- Twin Cities, Minnesota
Re: Avalon: Somerset
I'm not particularly happy with this team.
I feel very much the opposite. I am pretty sure Eonas is evil. His explanation for Troll and El both being minions seems odd considering the timing of how events took place. I also don't think his initial foray into the game with the bizarrely jargon heavy postings were actually just a joke. I think it was deliberate as an obsufucation. Yes, I'm going a bit afield with this, but Eonas is an eccentric risk taking player. His gracing back to legible thought feels like a sympathy gambit.
Lex. Duck I need to go back and reread, but Lex's explanations havent proved persuasive. Notably being sympathetic to two minions trading the lady, which I am quite against. It's a lot of overt risk to decidedly little long term gain. If we were at the final quest, I could see it. But we aren't.
I'm also puzzled why she was worried I was being cleared. I'm not even on the docket and I've moved from annoying inactive to encouraged to share thoughts. It looks less like worry about minion clearing and more trying to keep someone locked into suspicion without a chance to change suspects.
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2015-04-07, 11:39 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2012
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
I think it's pretty clear at this stage that Eloel's a minion. So the fact that he voted for [jojolagger, Rofltrollcopter, Tanar, Logic] means that at least one person in that team is probably a minion. Based upon the that jojolagger also voted yes, his repeated attacks on me (which wouldn't be so suspicious if he could actually present new evidence besides "I still think he's a minion"), and just vibe, I'm guessing jojo's the minion.
That doesn't preclude the possibility that somebody else on that team is also a minion, however. I've still got a suspicious eye on Rofl, to be honest: again, the fact that both Eloel and Rofl tried to present an either-or scenario where we should trust either one or the other (posts 179 and 187), is to me odd. I mean, from their point of view, obviously they're loyal, but... I dunno. It really does seem like an excellent strategy as minions: all you need is one of two minions to be trusted and the game's won.
Presumably, given that Eloel knows we're onto him, he could be bluffing or doublebluffing or something. It's like that scene in Princess Bride with the poisoned wine: he might have known we'd think that, or might have known that we might have known... and so on. So, his early reject is basically meaningless.
Spoiler: Unrelated...ishBloody Baator, were my posts at the begining really that incoherent? I thought the only things I did was substitute vampiric references for game terms, insert a couple jokes, and talk in more... writerly... prose. Which, I suppose, is slightly frightening if I was am indeed utterly incomprehensible, because I spend most of my time on GiantITP doing PbP RPGs. And comprehensible IC prose is... kind of the whole point there.
I am, however, oddly flattered at your evaluation of my personality/playstyle, even though I don't think we ever played before. The only PbF bluffy-werewolfy game I've ever played was, like, months and months ago in the Fellowship of the Ring WW game, so you've obviously assessed my personality quite quickly.Last edited by Eonas; 2015-04-07 at 11:55 PM.
This is the end. Unless, possibly, it isn't.
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2015-04-07, 11:44 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
I wasn't worried, I was wondering why. I never saw a reason why, of the three of us that up voted two teams in a row, you were the only one considered loyal, for no obvious reason. Give me the reason why Legato isn't a suspect.
Actually, no. Never mind. I'm up voting this, and I hope that the mission fails.
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2015-04-08, 12:06 AM (ISO 8601)
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2015-04-08, 12:13 AM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2012
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Re: Avalon: Somerset
Uhh... Luthor *, so first you say this:
Then this:
First you explicitly refuse to contribute to the discussion, then you do exactly the same thing Eloel did: vote for a mission BECAUSE it contains a bad guy? What?
* Get it? 'Cause Lex Luthor? It's sort of like a pun. Ba-dum-t... no? ... Nevermind then.This is the end. Unless, possibly, it isn't.
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2015-04-08, 12:23 AM (ISO 8601)
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