Craziest Idea Mafia

[JeenLeen]

I'm curious why you're putting totadile as basically towncore - I don't particularly think he's non-town, but I also wouldn't put him at the same level of trust as rogue.

Also, if we believe Snow about Caerulea being investigative, then it's possible that Emmy is the vig and Caerulea lied to protect her buddy. Depends how much you trust Snow I guess.

I don't trust totaldile as much as rogue_alchemist, but... I guess just their actions (though not proveable) seems legit, and their analysis did as well. I trusted them as much as I did Book Wombat.

Oh--I missed Snowblaze saying that about Caerulea. (I didn't read all the Night chat carefully.) But I could see her lying in hopes of persuading us to work with her, and it's not like a baddie would counterclaim in a "no, I'm not alien investigative, I'm alien killing!"

I guess it is possibly Emmy and Caerulea are scumbuddies, but I think it more likely that Emmy is town and Caerulea (regardless of alignment) got that message from Xi and wanted to honestly relay it lest she get caught in a lie and lynched.

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Aventine is the Town-Vig. Town-Core. No counter-claims.

The only way for Elenna to be alien-vig requires both Emmy, and Cae to be evil. Cae lies about Emmy and she protects Elenna instead of Book_Wombat. If they are all aliens which is what would be required for that team-up to happen they have lylo tomorrow. 3,2,3 today. 2,1,2 tomorrow. Possibly another psychotrooper but I still see it as unlikely too many alien cards in play running down that scenario.

Apogee has more baddy vibes mostly because it's actually feasible for him to be alien-vig, and he's focusing on not killing the alien-vig who is the only baddy besides sk we even know is still alive.

So Yeah, I'd honestly Nominate Apogee, and Cae for the night kills. Elenna, should be scried as it could yield useful information however.

I obviously missed some stuff while trying to catch up.
I'm game to try to kill Apogee tonight.

[totadileplayz]

I should clarify. The psychotrooper remark is referring to the fact 3 aliens could exist in a different set-up then the one I had described. It would require.

Emmy, and Elenna to both be aliens, but a pyschotrooper could cut off the tie with Cae. This is a less likely set-up then the one I first described, but it is in the realm of possibility hence me bringing it up.

- - - Updated - - -

Of Course that line-up still requires Emmy to gamble saying they were roleblocked, when someone else could have been and actually known about it.

[totadileplayz]

I suppose the most reasonable Elenna is skalien-vig possibility is that Cae is alien Doc they protected Elenna last night. Emmy is a red-herring, and since Elenna was protected Cae will be protected tonight.

Requires Snow to be lying about Cae's role, but it's partially feasible I suppose.

[Snowblaze]

Do we really think there are still two aliens, with how many have already died?

And unless I missed something, the only evidence that Caerulea is a researcher not a killer is Snow saying so...

And saying so while in "well if you're going to kill me then I'm not going to help you" mode...

Well, I know there are two aliens.

Also: why does Caerulea lie? They claimed after I said I knew their role, so if they're lying there's a big risk I say "no, they're lying, kill them" because if there's a better target I might not die. Lying involves coming up with a not particularly plausible fakeclaim that I can instantly prove false if I want to.

Thanks for trying, Jeen.

Also: Emmy still has a roleblocker shot left. She can stop me killing anyone tonight.

[JeenLeen]

If we're quite sure Caerulea is an alien, I think it's in Town's best interest to kill her today.
Keep the completely known threats (Snowblaze as Serial killer) contained, or at least we be aware of who/what they are even if we can't trust Emmy to void them.

Even if the last two aliens are Emmynecromancer and Caerulea, Emmy has an incentive to still void Snowblaze to 'play ball' and retain towncred.
I'm reminding myself that rogue_alchemist as alien makes no sense giving voting patterns and analysis early game. Otherwise, I'd suspect them of being the Alien Investigative and coasting on towncred (like they did in a prior Crazy Mafia game).

I could see totaldileplayz as an alien protective (if lied about baning Xi), but doubt it. I much more lean Apogee and one of Emmy and Caerulea.

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A final pitch for keeping Snowblaze around: most people have voted Snowblaze. This means the baddies are either okay with it or scared to vote where they'd really prefer to. I'd lean towards them being okay with a Snowblaze lynch, and thus we shouldn't lynch Snowblaze.

Also, is there any evidence for 2 aliens beyond the serial killer saying there's two?

[rogue_alchemist]

If we're quite sure Caerulea is an alien, I think it's in Town's best interest to kill her today.
Keep the completely known threats (Snowblaze as Serial killer) contained, or at least we be aware of who/what they are even if we can't trust Emmy to void them.

Even if the last two aliens are Emmynecromancer and Caerulea, Emmy has an incentive to still void Snowblaze to 'play ball' and retain towncred.
I'm reminding myself that rogue_alchemist as alien makes no sense giving voting patterns and analysis early game. Otherwise, I'd suspect them of being the Alien Investigative and coasting on towncred (like they did in a prior Crazy Mafia game).

I could see totaldileplayz as an alien protective (if lied about baning Xi), but doubt it. I much more lean Apogee and one of Emmy and Caerulea.

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A final pitch for keeping Snowblaze around: most people have voted Snowblaze. This means the baddies are either okay with it or scared to vote where they'd really prefer to. I'd lean towards them being okay with a Snowblaze lynch, and thus we shouldn't lynch Snowblaze.

Also, is there any evidence for 2 aliens beyond the serial killer saying there's two?

Your arguments are slightly more cohesive than my own earlier, but this is exactly my thinking. Emmy has been really quiet except to agree to Totadilz's plan, so I don't know how much we can say. I am updating my table and trying to type up my thoughts on town-leans and avenues to investigate.

[rogue_alchemist]

I don’t want a seer to lock in Elenna and then be offline when I reveal it.
Come on. Void me, mafia. Swap my target, mindslaver. I dare you.

Caerulea, I’d advise you not to reveal the scry I sent you tonight. Give the wolves another "are we screwed if we don’t kill X" target, I say.

I’ll also point someone Elenna’s way tonight. I figure it’s best if I announce my given scry since killing me won’t stop it from being reported to town (I think).

So I read this as Xi saying to Caerulea (whom he sent a scry result N2) not to reveal her scry result until D4. Then the whole thing about Elenna, should mean that Elenna has a scry result from Xi to share. It seems Xi wanted someone to verify Elenna so that town could know whether to trust her information after the Town Gossip reveal or not. Also since Elenna was protected, it would make sense as this info would be available no matter what today (D4). Did I miss this info somewhere?

Here is the updated table:

Player	Discarded Card	Claimed Role	Death Reveal	type of death	Extra Card	scry result
Valmark	Town Jack of All Trades	Alien Psychotrooper	Alien Psychotrooper	Lynch	Town Manipulative and Alien Tracking
Bathatcat	Werewolf Killing	cult	cult fanatic (via backup)	lynch		Cult (Book Wombat)
Snowblaze	Town Roleblocking	SK Spy				SK (from Batcathat)
Book Wombat	Town Tracking	Town Seer	Town Seer	Werewolf claw	Mafia Investigative, Town Universal Backup
Elenna	Cult Investigative
Xihirli	Town Killing	Town Seer? Maybe JOAT? Settled on Town Gossip	Town Gossip	alien blaster	town and cult
totadileplayz	Alien Communicative	town Doc			Town investigative and Cult Protective
rogue_alchemist	Cult Tracking	Town Seer			Town Protective and Town Investigative	Alien (from Emmy w/ psychotrooper interference)
MornShine	Mafia Manipulative		Werewolf Roleblocker	SK axe
bladescape	Alien Investigative	town vig -> town JOAT	Mafia JOAT	Town Pistol and Survivor flashlight		Mafia (rogue_alchemist)
Aventine	Town Universal Backup				Cult
flat_footed	Werewolf Protective	no claim	Alien Overseer	Lynch
AvatarVecna	Town Tracking	no claim	Mafia Strongman	Alien blaster
CaoimhinTheCape	Town Jack of All Trades	no claim	Town Seer	Werewolf claw
JeenLeen	Town Rolebocking	Survivor Communicative -> Survivor Killer			town and Survivor (Town Killing, Survivor Communicative)
EmmyNecromancer	Mafia Roleblocking	Town JOAT			Cult JOAT and Town Tracking
Rogan	Town Jack of All Trades	Town Roleblocker	Werewolf Roleblocker	(town)? Pistol	Wolf RoleBlocker Town Backup	werewolf (rogue_alchemist)
Apogee1	Town Protective
Caerulea	Town Communicative
gac3	Mafia Protective	no claim	Alien Jack of All Trades	Mafia knife
Captain Cap	Town Protective	no claim	Werewolf Jack of All Trades	Survivor flashlight and cult fire

Going back through it is really hard to sift through who is what. I can see a world where Totadilez and Elenna are scum buddies, I don't have the strongest town-lean on Emmy. I know Jeen and Snow are neutral/bad depending on how they want to play. Apogee is unknown with the quietness. Aventine has claimed town vig, but could be another kind of vig, though I don't know why the real town vig wouldn't speak up at this point. Caerulea is definitely alien and needs to die. I hate trying to game who could be left that is bad when it is so close.

- - - Updated - - -

I claim to have healed Book Wombat.

Then how did he die?

Re-updated table with claims and cards.

Player	Discarded Card	Claimed Role	Death Reveal	type of death	Extra Card	scry result
Valmark	Town Jack of All Trades	Alien Psychotrooper	Alien Psychotrooper	Lynch	Town Manipulative and Alien Tracking
Bathatcat	Werewolf Killing	cult	cult fanatic (via backup)	lynch		Cult (Book Wombat)
Snowblaze	Town Roleblocking	SK Spy				SK (from Batcathat)
Book Wombat	Town Tracking	Town Seer	Town Seer	Werewolf claw	Mafia Investigative, Town Universal Backup
Elenna	Cult Investigative	Town Doc
Xihirli	Town Killing	Town Seer? Maybe JOAT? Settled on Town Gossip	Town Gossip	alien blaster	town and cult
totadileplayz	Alien Communicative	town Doc			Town investigative and Cult Protective
rogue_alchemist	Cult Tracking	Town Seer			Town Protective and Town Investigative	Alien (from Emmy w/ psychotrooper interference)
MornShine	Mafia Manipulative		Werewolf Roleblocker	SK axe
bladescape	Alien Investigative	town vig -> town JOAT	Mafia JOAT	Town Pistol and Survivor flashlight		Mafia (rogue_alchemist)
Aventine	Town Universal Backup	Town Vig			Cult	Town (Apogee1 and Caerulea)
flat_footed	Werewolf Protective	no claim	Alien Overseer	Lynch
AvatarVecna	Town Tracking	no claim	Mafia Strongman	Alien blaster
CaoimhinTheCape	Town Jack of All Trades	no claim	Town Seer	Werewolf claw
JeenLeen	Town Rolebocking	Survivor Communicative -> Survivor Killer			town and Survivor (Town Killing, Survivor Communicative)
EmmyNecromancer	Mafia Roleblocking	Town JOAT			Cult JOAT and Town Tracking
Rogan	Town Jack of All Trades	Town Roleblocker	Werewolf Roleblocker	(town)? Pistol	Wolf RoleBlocker Town Backup	werewolf (rogue_alchemist)
Apogee1	Town Protective	Town UB -> Seer			Town UB, Town RB
Caerulea	Town Communicative	town Seer
gac3	Mafia Protective	no claim	Alien Jack of All Trades	Mafia knife
Captain Cap	Town Protective	no claim	Werewolf Jack of All Trades	Survivor flashlight and cult fire

[totadileplayz]

Cut this down to only show living players.

Player	Discarded Card	Claimed Role	Death Reveal	type of death	Extra Card	scry result
Snowblaze	Town Roleblocking	SK Spy				SK (from Batcathat)
Elenna	Cult Investigative	Town Doc
totadileplayz	Alien Communicative	town Doc			Town investigative and Cult Protective
rogue_alchemist	Cult Tracking	Town Seer			Town Protective and Town Investigative	Alien (from Emmy w/ psychotrooper interference)
Aventine	Town Universal Backup	Town Vig			Cult	Town (Apogee1 and Caerulea)
JeenLeen	Town Rolebocking	Survivor Communicative -> Survivor Killer			town and Survivor (Town Killing, Survivor Communicative)
EmmyNecromancer	Mafia Roleblocking	Town JOAT			Cult JOAT and Town Tracking
Apogee1	Town Protective	Town UB -> Seer			Town UB, Town RB
Caerulea	Town Communicative	town Seer

[/QUOTE]

A Bit easier to understand I believe.

[Elenna]

@rogue I interpreted that statement from Xi as meaning that she sent someone else a scry on me, not meaning that she sent me a scry on someone. In any case I didn't receive a scry result.
There's four possible reasons I can think of why nobody has claimed to have received a scry from Xi yet:
1. Xi dying prevented her scry from being sent out. @Unavenger, can you confirm whether Xi's target would have received Xi's gossip scry last night, if there were no other roleblocks? That is, does killing a town gossip prevent them from gossiping that night?
2. Xi sent the scry to a non-town player and they don't want to confirm that I'm town
3. Xi was roleblocked last night
4. Xi sent her scry to Book Wombat, who obviously can't tell us the result.

[Snowblaze]

I'm not going to get a miracle, am I?

Oh well, I can at least die in style with some RP and the song I promised Rogan. Good luck to... actually I honestly don't care who wins at this point. Except Jeen, but no-one's killing them anyway.




"This is not the end." Herself, the chair she sat on, her trusty axe leaning against its leg, the axe she would never wield again. The table, and on it the wine in front of her.

The mob determined that she wouldn't see another sunset. "Look at you all. United against a common enemy. You think killing me will end the slaughter? It will not. For I am a servant of Death, and my own death will not stop the aliens and werewolves among you. Even if I am not here to see it, even if the last thing you see won't be the glint of my smile and my axe, you will all die."

She curled her fingers about the stem of the wine glass and lifted it into the air. "A toast, I think. May you live to regret this day. And then may you all die horribly." She tipped her head back and drank.

The poison was a slow one, largely painless. It let her still softly sing the old song. The song that spoke of her one comfort at this fatal moment.

They would all die.

"From the day we arrive on this planet
And, blinking, step into the sun
There is more to kill than can ever be killed
More murder than can ever be done.

There are far too many people alive
More to axe than can ever be axed.
But the Reaper most Grim
Ending lives with a whim
Keeps great and small on the endless round

It’s the circle of death,
And it kills us all.
With despair and pain
With darkness and blood
Till we find our doom
On the path unwinding
In the circle
The circle of death

It’s the circle of death
And it kills us all
With despair and pain
With darkness and blood
Till we find our doom
On the path unwinding
In the circle
The circle of death."

[rogue_alchemist]

I still feel it is the wrong move to lynch Snow today, as she could help us and a known, threat is better than an unknown threat, but here we are. I am going to switch back to Caerulea for the nil good it'll do.

vote count:
Caerulea (2): JeenLeen, rogue_alchemist
SnowBlaze (5): EmmyNecromancer, Elenna, totadileplayz, Aventine, Apogee1
Refuse to vote: Snowblaze
not voting: Caerulea

- - - Updated - - -

I also think Emmy's pop up quick message and a vote for snow are a bit suspicious, but can't do much with it as I know life gets busy and it is hard to find much to say towards the end when it is all guesses and second-guesses.

[JeenLeen]

I like the song, Snowblaze.

I also think Emmy's pop up quick message and a vote for snow are a bit suspicious, but can't do much with it as I know life gets busy and it is hard to find much to say towards the end when it is all guesses and second-guesses.

It's hard to give good analysis, or to strongly care given my neutral status, but it's fun to try to deduce things so I'd like to try to figure out who the alien(s) are... but, yeah, I agree with you.
I am leaning no werewolves left.

Anyway, to reiterate, I plan to attack Apogee tonight, but might change it if rogue_alchemist and/or Aventine give a good argument for someone else.
Aventine, please shoot elsewhere.

[totadileplayz]

I still feel it is the wrong move to lynch Snow today, as she could help us and a known, threat is better than an unknown threat, but here we are. I am going to switch back to Caerulea for the nil good it'll do.

vote count:
Caerulea (2): JeenLeen, rogue_alchemist
SnowBlaze (5): EmmyNecromancer, Elenna, totadileplayz, Aventine, Apogee1
Refuse to vote: Snowblaze
not voting: Caerulea

- - - Updated - - -

I also think Emmy's pop up quick message and a vote for snow are a bit suspicious, but can't do much with it as I know life gets busy and it is hard to find much to say towards the end when it is all guesses and second-guesses.

4 kills going out in the night is a terrible idea. Not only is it far more likely for them to lower our numbers, but since The Sk won't kill the alien, and the alien won't kill the sk we will have the lower hand tomorrow. And it doesn't even need them to be fully successful all it requires is 3 getting in, and since 2 are our personal kills... Yeah, I don't see how that's a good idea.

so tomorrow it would be 2-1-2 lylo. Even if the alien goes for the kill the sk tomorrow... 1-1-1 lylo once more alien's win. a large portion of my willingness to go with doc chain is because it increases town's chances of victory.

Yes, we could kill the alien-vig but The sk won't tell us who they are, why would they?

[Unavenger]

DAY 4 END

Please wait for votes to be counted.

[rogue_alchemist]

4 kills going out in the night is a terrible idea. Not only is it far more likely for them to lower our numbers, but since The Sk won't kill the alien, and the alien won't kill the sk we will have the lower hand tomorrow. And it doesn't even need them to be fully successful all it requires is 3 getting in, and since 2 are our personal kills... Yeah, I don't see how that's a good idea.

so tomorrow it would be 2-1-2 lylo. Even if the alien goes for the kill the sk tomorrow... 1-1-1 lylo once more alien's win. a large portion of my willingness to go with doc chain is because it increases town's chances of victory.

Yes, we could kill the alien-vig but The sk won't tell us who they are, why would they?

it's too late now, but because survival is a strong instinct. I know she could lie, but we have a pretty good idea who it is. I hope this works out. I have a strong suspicion that I will die tonight to the alien vig (assuming no one else is around). I am don't understand how Emmy claims to have 'healed' (which I assume means doc save) BW when he died. Unless she was voided, which I guess would be Rogan before he died. Nevermind, I talked myself through it.

[Unavenger]

Snowblaze REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CORRUPT INSTITUTION OF DEMOCRACY.
Elenna voted SNOWBLAZE.
totadileplayz voted SNOWBLAZE.
rogue_alchemist voted CAERULEA.
Aventine voted SNOWBLAZE.
JeenLeen voted CAERULEA.
EmmyNecromancer voted SNOWBLAZE.
Apogee1 voted SNOWBLAZE.
Caerulea REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CORRUPT INSTITUTION OF DEMOCRACY.

Snowblaze received 5 votes.
Caerulea received 2 votes.
2 players refused to participate in the corrupt institution of democracy.

Snowblaze died today. She was executed. Snowblaze's role was Serial Killer Spy.

NIGHT 4 START

This phase will end at 20:00 GMT, 20/07/2021

[JeenLeen]

How do people feel about the idea if, if aliens tie Town for control of the vote come Day, I side with the aliens to call the call?

But for the Night, I'm siding with Town. Aventine, I'll cover Apogee and you can go after whoever you think best.

- - - Updated - - -

Though I'm quite sure the baddies won't control the vote or be tied for it. Really reckon 1 alien, not 2, and the statement about 2 was a lie to try to keep Snowblaze alive.

[rogue_alchemist]

So we are in a tough spot now. I guess Aventine should shoot for Caerulea, who is either the alien vig or an alien researcher (none of her scry results were particularly salient). Emmy has a RB left so if anything doesn't happen tonight that is likely the cause. Supposedly Apogee and I can scry people. Totadile and Elenna are supposed to be doc-ing each other. I hope Caerulea is the last alien and this clenches victory, but I can see another baddie. From Snow's song, I wonder if there isn't still a werewolf out there. I guess if Jeen kills Apogee, there won't be another scry result, just mine (if I survive).

Jeen kills Apogee. I investigate 1 of (Totadile, Elenna, or emmy). Aventine shoots Caerulea. Emmy RB Caerulea out of an abundance of caution to stop the alien vig. This plan assumes that totadile, elenna and emmy are town.

I have doubts of emmy, so I would propose to kill her and have another scry result from Apogee (though that would be A LOT of town seers). however, then Emmy will RB Jeen to survive and then Caerulea will be able to kill (assuming she is alien-vig) and Jeen won't get to do anything. This leads to only the alien vig target dying emmy using her last power and Jeen feeling dissatisfied with town.

I am open to alternative plans, but I guess the first plan has the greatest chance of town victory and at the very least if Caerulea is a researcher, she won't get a result to help any potential scum-buddies.

[Apogee1]

Reminder I was an UB, not a seer

I’m personally in favor of like, shoot Emmy or Elenna, and Cae, investigate me and one of the other ones

Then again I would be

[totadileplayz]

So we are in a tough spot now. I guess Aventine should shoot for Caerulea, who is either the alien vig or an alien researcher (none of her scry results were particularly salient). Emmy has a RB left so if anything doesn't happen tonight that is likely the cause. Supposedly Apogee and I can scry people. Totadile and Elenna are supposed to be doc-ing each other. I hope Caerulea is the last alien and this clenches victory, but I can see another baddie. From Snow's song, I wonder if there isn't still a werewolf out there. I guess if Jeen kills Apogee, there won't be another scry result, just mine (if I survive).

Jeen kills Apogee. I investigate 1 of (Totadile, Elenna, or emmy). Aventine shoots Caerulea. Emmy RB Caerulea out of an abundance of caution to stop the alien vig. This plan assumes that totadile, elenna and emmy are town.

I have doubts of emmy, so I would propose to kill her and have another scry result from Apogee (though that would be A LOT of town seers). however, then Emmy will RB Jeen to survive and then Caerulea will be able to kill (assuming she is alien-vig) and Jeen won't get to do anything. This leads to only the alien vig target dying emmy using her last power and Jeen feeling dissatisfied with town.

I am open to alternative plans, but I guess the first plan has the greatest chance of town victory and at the very least if Caerulea is a researcher, she won't get a result to help any potential scum-buddies.

Yeah you put it pretty well. It's along what I was thinking when I nominated the Apogee nk.

[Aventine]

totadile and Elenna need to protect me and rogue. Confirmed town vig and almost-certainly-town seer? If I were scum here I'd be shooting one of us two. One of totadile or Elenna being NKed tonight is bad. One of me or rogue getting NKed is worse.

To avoid accidentally doubling up I'll say:

@totadile protect me

@Elenna protect rogue

Since there was some concern expressed at one point whether Emmy was framed to look town, I would suggest rogue not publicly state who of the remaining players he is going to scry out of an abundance of caution. Make a hypothetical framer have to guess.

Aventine, I'll cover Apogee...

Noting that I saw this.

[totadileplayz]

totadile and Elenna need to protect me and rogue. Confirmed town vig and almost-certainly-town seer? If I were scum here I'd be shooting one of us two. One of totadile or Elenna being NKed tonight is bad. One of me or rogue getting NKed is worse.

To avoid accidentally doubling up I'll say:

@totadile protect me

@Elenna protect rogue

Since there was some concern expressed at one point whether Emmy was framed to look town, I would suggest rogue not publicly state who of the remaining players he is going to scry out of an abundance of caution. Make a hypothetical framer have to guess.



Noting that I saw this.

I have to disagree with that assessment.

Notably we do have to calculate things as if we haven't won.

If rogue dies tonight or you for that matter. Elenna, Rogue/Aventine, and Myself are alive we lynch Emmy. If Game doesn't end. We have Elenna, Myself, and Rogue to look at. Something's sus but we move onto the next night. As doc I have to hold the responsibility that I need to protect the non-doc and myself as Elenna may have to debate the same. If it's the non-doc then they need to figure out who each doc would protect. Leaving to the next day where the results are tallied possibly leaving a 2/1/1 scenario or 1/1/1 scenario. So doc's are vital there to stop Jeen's betrayal causing town to lose.


If we pursued your plan then The Vig, Seer, and Doc are alive likely with me dead. Potentially compromised Seer has scried someone if they're compromised Rogue wins this handily. Emmy dies that day, since the Seer says they scried a non-helpful subject. Only remaining Doc is overburdened and the likelihood a 1/1/1 scenario increases jeen helps scum town loses.

So let's say the Seer isn't compromised they actually found out something useful so the remaining doc's alignment which let's say is evil because again if they're good seer doesn't matter as Emmy should be killed. So you guys kill the doc that night. Since game hasn't ended you nk Emmy game's done.

What are the distinctive probabilities? No idea doesn't really matter to me. Only way we can account for any potential person being evil is if we keep both doc's alive. If 3 evil's are still alive next day town loses no matter what.

- - - Updated - - -

I should probably figure out what happens if Cae survives.

- - - Updated - - -

Cae's alive, and Emmy is too. We know one of the doc's or Emmy definitely betrayed us. But that doesn't matter so we'll lynch Cae the Alien-Vig.

If Two Doc's and Rogue are alive. We have Rogue getting 2 scries off. Against 3 targets this pretty much proves who's sus. If Rogue is Town town knows who are the scummy members. if he's scum he wins as he points out fingers to who he wants to have killed and only once at that for he presumably has an nk he can use to kill another member.

If two doc's and Aventine are alive. We know one of emmy or the doc's saved cae's life. If it's a doc they are going to protect themselves so they nk emmy the next night phase, and have a 2 on 2 situation where Aventine must figure out which one of 2 people are scum and Jeenleen will take a side as well.

If one Doc, Seer and vig are alive. They kill Cae. Seer scries doc, vig kills emmy. Seer or Doc Villain perform a nk.



Ah wait one moment forgot the most important piece I forgot about the survivor. Yeah, that's an interesting piece informing us they're going to side scum means all 1 doc set-up's are instantly 1/1/1 two day phases from now. Since the doc can only protect one person and the other person is going to be killed since surv sides villains. While Two Doc's means at least both doc's are going to be around.

Yeah Doc's are more important then the seer. Less valuable then you Aventine confirmed townie and all.

[Aventine]

I have to disagree with that assessment.

Notably we do have to calculate things as if we haven't won.

Yes...that's why we protect the people most likely to be town. I'm confirmed. In order for rogue to be scum he'd have to be an alien with a researcher active. D1 suggests he is not an alien. It is possible, but it is unlikely. And if he is? For various reasons his partner has to be Apogee or Caerulea. If an alien vig dies and the game isn't over, we take a close look at rogue. But at the same time, the aliens are neutered: no more NK. If one of the two die and is a researcher, that is more troublesome, but still tells us a lot. There are a lot of people who simply can't be the alien vig.

The bigger threat is the possibility of a wolf or mafia still being alive. You or Elenna could be wolf/mafia baner/roleblocker.

Honestly not really going to dig deep into your analysis. First glance is...odd. Why would you kill Emmy tomorrow? Emmy must be one of: town, scum-buddies with Caerulea, framer (or scum-buddies with one). Like, what is even the scenario there? What were Apogee and Caerulea?

We keep rogue alive because a nearly-confirmed townie is more valuable than a doc. Especially at this stage of the game. Especially a doc we can't be sure is town...or a even a doc rather than a roleblocker. Only world in which alien-rogue is a real threat involves a mafia or wolf being alive too. In that case, we sure as hell want the alien vig shot tonight being directed at someone who could be the wolf or mafia.

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Ok, I honestly don't follow your analysis. You seem to be looking at a world where rogue can't be fully trusted, but neglecting that you and Elenna can't be fully trusted. Then don't take into account anything learned from death flips from here on out. And just, have the game continue. You don't seem to account for the possibility of a second faction still being up to add an NK, you don't seem to be looking at who can and can't be an alien. You're just counting down deaths without seeming to give any thought to flips beyond "they might flip town, so we have to keep going."

[Elenna]

I'm inclined to not say which one of your plans I'll follow, in the hopes that aliens will guess wrong and hit my bane.

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Although if you have some reason why I should say who I'll bane, feel free to say so.

[totadileplayz]

I am currently working on a thorough Avenue of the possibilities this will take time to complete. As such I shall inform you of several things I found interesting.

A) Only Rogue, and Emmy can be Alien-Vig
B) If a cultist existed cultists win.
C) The case of Cae.

If Rogue is the other villain then Cae doesn't survive.
If either of the doc's is the other villain then cae survives, but Cae can't get an nk off. Or the above occurs.
If emmy is the other villain cae survives and can get a kill off, or the above occurs.

D) there are possibilities where a survivor only situation can occur.

[Aventine]

Spoiler: General Facts

Show

Jeen and my roles are known.

Totadile can't be alien due to discard

rogue can only be scum as an alien with a researcher (or a truly insane edge case where he bussed hard and got really lucky with his other fake scries)

Elenna was shot by Jeen and survived, and thus must be a baner, a roleblocker, or scum-buddies with one or the other

Emmy must be 1) town, 2) on a team with a framer (which may be herself) or 3) on a team with Caerulea

There is an alien vig

Spoiler: 1 Alien

Show

It must be a vig

It cannot be Jeen, me or totadile

It cannot be rogue, Elenna or Emmy as each requires a second alien

It must be Apogee or Caerulea.

We win tonight

Spoiler: 2 Aliens

Show

1 must still be a vig

Jeen, me and totadile are still clear

It cannot be 2 of rogue, Elenna or Emmy, because they still each require another role (or for Caer to be alien in Emmy's case), so that would leave no room for the vig.

An alien will die tonight. Only way to avoid that is to bane/rb the kill. That would tell us there is a bane or rb on the alien's side.

If it is the vig that dies, the aliens are neutered and we can figure out the right way to work the kills (which we now fully control).

If it is not the vig that dies, we see what role it is and that narrows things down immensely.

Or both Apogee and Caer are aliens and we win tonight. That's also possible

Spoiler: 1 alien and 1 mafia/wolf

Show

The alien must still be Apogee or Caerulea

The wolf/mafia cannot be rogue (barring, again, insane circumstances)

We need both me and rogue alive. Emmy would have to be a framer if scum, and so couldn't break through the protection on me and rogue. Has to kill totadile or Elenna. But the same is true of the alien, who has to shoot totadile, Elenna or Emmy. If the mafia/wolf isn't shot, me and rogue can finish things.

totadile or Elenna could break through, either by not protecting who I told them to, or if they are an rb instead of a baner and used that to survive the earlier kill. That makes things more of a problem. Still, who the alien kills can clear things up a bit? Still, not protecting both me and rogue doesn't make this scenario any better. Actually, it makes it worse because it has a chance of accidentally protecting the maf/wolf

Oh, and Emmy discarded mafia, so if we see a mafia kill tonight we know it's not her.

Spoiler: 2 aliens and 1 mafia/wolf

Show

Here is where the possibility of rogue being an alien becomes an issue. Apogee being a researcher and Caerulea being town clears Emmy of being the second alien and points to rogue. Caerulea being the researcher would be a problem.

This world is genuinely a concern, and I need to come back with a clearer head to think through it.

Technically, there is also a possibility of 2 mafia/wolves, either together or both factions. I'm not going to go through that at the moment. Two together opens up a Caerulea/Emmy pairing, but Caerulea should die tonight, barring protection/rb. One of each means a bunch of deaths tonight. Honestly, I think I want to say there are too many possible combinations to fully think through right now, not to mention a good chance of scum hitting scum.

I don't see any way that protecting me and rogue isn't the right choice tonight. I do, in general, like the "keep who you're protecting secret so scum has to guess" idea, but I do think in this case it is more important to guarantee that rogue survives. Let scum shoot someone we are less sure of and reduce our uncertainty.

[rogue_alchemist]

Spoiler: General Facts

Show

Jeen and my roles are known.

Totadile can't be alien due to discard

rogue can only be scum as an alien with a researcher (or a truly insane edge case where he bussed hard and got really lucky with his other fake scries)

Elenna was shot by Jeen and survived, and thus must be a baner, a roleblocker, or scum-buddies with one or the other

Emmy must be 1) town, 2) on a team with a framer (which may be herself) or 3) on a team with Caerulea

There is an alien vig

Spoiler: 1 Alien

Show

It must be a vig

It cannot be Jeen, me or totadile

It cannot be rogue, Elenna or Emmy as each requires a second alien

It must be Apogee or Caerulea.

We win tonight

Spoiler: 2 Aliens

Show

1 must still be a vig

Jeen, me and totadile are still clear

It cannot be 2 of rogue, Elenna or Emmy, because they still each require another role (or for Caer to be alien in Emmy's case), so that would leave no room for the vig.

An alien will die tonight. Only way to avoid that is to bane/rb the kill. That would tell us there is a bane or rb on the alien's side.

If it is the vig that dies, the aliens are neutered and we can figure out the right way to work the kills (which we now fully control).

If it is not the vig that dies, we see what role it is and that narrows things down immensely.

Or both Apogee and Caer are aliens and we win tonight. That's also possible

Spoiler: 1 alien and 1 mafia/wolf

Show

The alien must still be Apogee or Caerulea

The wolf/mafia cannot be rogue (barring, again, insane circumstances)

We need both me and rogue alive. Emmy would have to be a framer if scum, and so couldn't break through the protection on me and rogue. Has to kill totadile or Elenna. But the same is true of the alien, who has to shoot totadile, Elenna or Emmy. If the mafia/wolf isn't shot, me and rogue can finish things.

totadile or Elenna could break through, either by not protecting who I told them to, or if they are an rb instead of a baner and used that to survive the earlier kill. That makes things more of a problem. Still, who the alien kills can clear things up a bit? Still, not protecting both me and rogue doesn't make this scenario any better. Actually, it makes it worse because it has a chance of accidentally protecting the maf/wolf

Oh, and Emmy discarded mafia, so if we see a mafia kill tonight we know it's not her.

Spoiler: 2 aliens and 1 mafia/wolf

Show

Here is where the possibility of rogue being an alien becomes an issue. Apogee being a researcher and Caerulea being town clears Emmy of being the second alien and points to rogue. Caerulea being the researcher would be a problem.

This world is genuinely a concern, and I need to come back with a clearer head to think through it.

Technically, there is also a possibility of 2 mafia/wolves, either together or both factions. I'm not going to go through that at the moment. Two together opens up a Caerulea/Emmy pairing, but Caerulea should die tonight, barring protection/rb. One of each means a bunch of deaths tonight. Honestly, I think I want to say there are too many possible combinations to fully think through right now, not to mention a good chance of scum hitting scum.

I don't see any way that protecting me and rogue isn't the right choice tonight. I do, in general, like the "keep who you're protecting secret so scum has to guess" idea, but I do think in this case it is more important to guarantee that rogue survives. Let scum shoot someone we are less sure of and reduce our uncertainty.

I was thinking this made the most sense too. If we KNEW for certain that Totadile and Elenna were BOTH Town, I could see going with the doc plan, as having 2 guaranteed town who can't die at night against 2 scum means it comes down to Jeen choosing the lynch(who stated he wanted to choose scum, but who knows in the end) or a coin toss on the narrator's side.

However, we have absolutely no confirmation of either Totadile or Elenna being town. Sure you are both either docs or RB to stop the kills (or Jeen's kill didn't even get to go off because he submitted it too early). Sure yall have been great at analysis and participating and it has felt townie, but there are no scries confirming nor are there any other proofs, you could each be a different scum faction (I strongly suspect at least not the same scum faction) that is trying to appear helpful and townie. The NK reveal tonight will help clear up how many factions we are still dealing with, but only assuming they all go through.

I know I am town, even from an outside perspective as I could only be Alien with the accuracy and nature of reveals (I have directed town to shoot both mafia and werewolves, and both other neutral factions are claimed). If I am alien, then I would say I have to be the vig and Caerulea is the researcher who I was just stealing info from. But she claimed with scry targets too (most of which were terrible and she held back until the end when someone could just pick at random from the reveals). I guess if Caerulea flips researcher and an alien kill emerges, I need to be more thoroughly vetted, but I am really hoping she is the vig.

Aventine has claimed a vig role and I guess could theoretically be the alien vig claiming town, but everyone else has claimed something else and no one counter-claimed to out him, so I am going to say he is pretty much confirmed town (as we know the town vig exists by nature of its night kills and the lack of flip of any town vig in the death reveals means it is still out there).

Apogee also claimed seer with reasonable targets, but could be partnered with the alien researcher as the vig or visa-versa could be the researcher with Caerulea as the vig.

Emmy seems to be a JOAT of some kind with the following claims, scry N1 was psychotrooped (which admitted that they messed with me as role of alien that night, hopefully further crediting the whole "rogue can't be scum" theory), N2 tracked me (thought she was going to learn my target, but only learned no one visited me), N3 Doc was RB by Rogan (as BookWobat died). The most townie read of that is that she tracked me and could only say no one visited me. That is a bold claim N2 with the potential docs/RB out there if she didn't actually know. She admitted that she got confused and thought she was going to get mafia tracker info (though she discarded mafia and thus can't be that), so the only other possibilities are: She is cult (and by seeing the lack of ACTIONS that targeted me knows I wasn't targeted) or is alien (and gets all the info there is). If she is alien, then the alien team is at least 3 people, and we are screwed. If she is cult, then the cult has been growing more and more and we are screwed by this point (as that was N2 and she has had a few nights to recruit others) anyways. Hopefully she is town.

Jeen is definitely the survivor with the claim, NKs, and lack of death.

[totadileplayz]

All of my progress has been lost. I give up.

[rogue_alchemist]

All of my progress has been lost. I give up.

That is the most frustrating part. I usually copy paste it into a text editor to compile before I post, so I don't lose it.

[totadileplayz]

That is the most frustrating part. I usually copy paste it into a text editor to compile before I post, so I don't lose it.

Overall the best solution is that no town dies for obvious reasons.