Werewolf Classic XII Part 2

[Lex-Kat]

I say Madeyegeorge seems suspicious.

[Murska]

I say Madeyegeorge seems suspicious.

Perhaps. But did you know that Orangeban is a werewolf?

Now you do! And knowing is half the battle!

The other half is lynching. So chop chop.

[Tydude]

So, Orangeban it is. I like easy days.

[Eldritch Knight]

Orangeban must die!

[Horoar]

Orangeban before the auto lynches catch us

[Griever]

Orangeban.

[billtodamax]

Looks like I'm not the only one who's been too busy for WW. Billtodamax for start of day random.

Your persistance is admirable, but I've already died, unfortunately.

Sorry Thufir, but school sorta kicked me in the teeth.

[Logarr]

Looks like thats it for you, Orangeban I love Seer-Approved pointing

[Leta]

Orangeban.

[Duneyrr]

Your persistance is admirable, but I've already died, unfortunately.

Sorry Thufir, but school sorta kicked me in the teeth.

Ugh. Good thing I checked the thread today. Orangeban for the obvious.

[cd4]

I will vote for Orangeban

[Rogue Nine]

Your persistance is admirable, but I've already died, unfortunately.

Sorry Thufir, but school sorta kicked me in the teeth.

Ack! Zombies!

/Mime Zombies...
//What's the mime-sign for "Braaaains"?
///Also Orangeban

[GrlumpTheElder]

Aye, Orangeban

[Ghanz Nmi]

OrangeBan it is.

[madeyegeorge]

OrangeBan eh... Lexkat is lucky murska revealed a wolf...you will escape the humiliation of my insignificant revenge vote for today...for today

[Qwaz]

Qwaz because q's should be followed by u's dammit!

Orangeban. Because firstly Oranges should never be banned and secondly YOU'RE A WOLF!

[Tasroth]

Orangeban.

[billtodamax]

Ack! Zombies!

/Mime Zombies...
//What's the mime-sign for "Braaaains"?
///Also Orangeban

*shambles over*

*makes complicated and fulfilling mime-sign for brains*

*eats Zanshin's brains*

[Uber-Gam3r]

Again I nearly get myself auto-lynched! I need to pay more attention to this thing.

Orangeban, I suppose.

[VA_beds]

so um gee really hard to decide
guess ill go with orangeban--i dunno why...just a feeling

[Orangeban]

Huh,



So should we go with stoning me, burning me or just a good old hanging?

[Orangeban]

Just realised I should probably role-play my last moments.

The English (and may I say, dashingly handsome) lord looked around with mild distaste. They crowded round the prophet Murska screaming his name. "Now come on people. Following Murska? Can't you be a bit more original. Tally ho wolves. May you drink earl gray on the peoples corpses."

[Kyrian]

Orangeban must die

[Qwaz]

Just realised I should probably role-play my last moments.

The English (and may I say, dashingly handsome) lord looked around with mild distaste. They crowded round the prophet Murska screaming his name. "Now come on people. Following Murska? Can't you be a bit more original. Tally ho wolves. May you drink earl gray on the peoples corpses."

I follow noone! I just lynch those who call my ability to spell my own name into question!

[Thufir]

I realise most mundanities have rather fallen by the wayside in this present crisis, but did we not, immediately before the disappearance of Lieutenant-Colonel Miles, receive a large delivery of oranges from one of the other colonies? We mustn't let good food go to waste simply because we're dealing with a daily threat to our lives, after all!

The man who took the delivery has hoarded the entire stock, and is refusing to allow anyone any. He issued the following statement:

I am imposing a ban on oranges! These wicked fruit shall not be permitted to spread their corruption any further!

WHAT?! This will not stand! Seize those oranges from him at once and bring them to me! Withhold no available force in taking them from him!

Fortuitously, sir, we were reliably informed that this orange banner was, in fact, a werewolf, and we lynched him accordingly. However, regret to inform you, one young man fainted away and died of joy, as far as we can tell, on eating his first orange.

This incident was regrettable, but, I feel, a fitting testament to the glory of that greatest of fruits, the orange.

Summary: Orangeban was lynched. He was a Werewolf.
spacebic (Originally Helgraf) was autolynched. He was a Villager.
Night 15 begins now and ends in approximately 24 hours.

[Qwaz]

Woooo! Fruit for everyone!

[razovor]

Everyone? Or just the living people?

[Julian84]

Woooo! Fruit for everyone!

Yes, the lovely orange tastes sooooo good on my ethereal tongue.

Citrus fruits aside, can any of our resident mathematicians care to explain the new odds of finding a werewolf? I'm kinda losing track here.

Edit: Apparently there are 26 players left in the game.

[razovor]

From a purely statistical standpoint, it looks like this;

We've had seven werewolf deaths. So, assuming there are ten of them orginally, that leaves three alive.

There are twenty-six players unknown, but maybe... five (?) people in villager network. That leaves twenty-one possible scry targets.

So the chance of scrying a werewolf is 3/21 or 14.2%

Suspicion

Of course, in reality the Seer isn't going to pick random targets. They probably have a list of suspicious individuals which they are ploughing through.

This may seem like a good idea, but perhaps it is not?

The Werewolves are heavily outnumbered. Their only chance of survival is to find the Seer, which means they need to delay for time. The Werewolves are probably doing everything they can to remain unsuspicious. And the werewolves that have survive this far are probably the more cunning ones.

Chances are they are not on the list. Add in the half-dozen villagers who are suspicious by nature, and the chances of finding a wolf are probably lower than the maths shows.

[Imperial Psycho]

Judging by the number of wolves kicking the bucket, it certainly appears to be working. Though I suppose they will whittle the wolves down until only the least suspicious are left..... I dunno.