Familicide Mega-Thread

[Klear]

And also, simultaneously, perhaps wonder just how bonkers Haerta had to be to come up with something like that in the first place.

I think she was just very bad at math. Kinda like the Silastic Armorfiends from the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, who tried to blow up a munitions dump with the ultimate weapon designed to destroy the whole universe.

[Math_Mage]

May I ask why so many are assuming that it is fifty generations or so? From what I can tell there are maybe five generations on the family tree. The Clause 2 family lines add more to that but they still haven't had a long time to produce generations... maybe about 50 years, which broadly makes fifty cultural generations but would be much less than fifty actual familial generations. I have no doubt that the kill count is high but I think some are overestimating it.

Plus it needs to be taken into account that the Western Continent is a very bloody war-torn continent in constant upheaval, so a good chunk of the people involved in Clause 2 family lines may have died long before familicide. I suspect the life expectancy on the WC is not that great.

Penelope's family tree stretches back to the beginning of the world. Most of the people in the upper parts of the tree are dead of old age, of course, but she has many living relatives that share blood with her due to sharing a (usually dead) common ancestor ("down to the very last cousin"). As the world is more than 1000 years old, an assumed 20 years per generation gives >50 generations. Due to all the death and slaughter, a lot of those trees have been significantly pruned, but we have a LOT of ancestors to work from.

[NerfTW]

I'm starting to think that Familicide is being picked to death (no pun intended) way too much.

Mind, I'm not suggesting that people shouldn't analyze what was said about Familicide. Far from it. But, and I think this is my main point, treating what has been said about Familicide as Crunch rather than Fluff might be a bit of an error, and is, IMO, what is leading to most of these arguments.

Yes. This. I agree. Familicide obviously has some form of stopping point where it ends, or else everybody on the planet would be dead right now. Because it's stated that it went down Orrin's line, and then back up to Penelope, and then would have gone down to her's and Tarquin's child, this means it would have killed EVERYONE if it had no limits.

So clearly there is a stopping point of some sort. And where that point is really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. So we probably will never find out.

[Zea mays]

Lucky guy, I have no red-headed sorcerous illigitimate children. I feel left out...

But... but if you did have one, you'd be dead now

[Math_Mage]

Yes. This. I agree. Familicide obviously has some form of stopping point where it ends, or else everybody on the planet would be dead right now. Because it's stated that it went down Orrin's line, and then back up to Penelope, and then would have gone down to her's and Tarquin's child, this means it would have killed EVERYONE if it had no limits.

So clearly there is a stopping point of some sort. And where that point is really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. So we probably will never find out.

Well, there IS a natural stopping point: Familicide as described in the comic cannot affect Tarquin, even if he had a child with Penelope (unless he has a common ancestor with a Draketooth in some other way). More generally, anyone who does not "share blood with [a blood relative of ABD]" is safe.

It's still a horrific number of people, even an implausible number. But it's not EVERYONE.

[ThePhantasm]

Penelope's family tree stretches back to the beginning of the world. Most of the people in the upper parts of the tree are dead of old age, of course, but she has many living relatives that share blood with her due to sharing a (usually dead) common ancestor ("down to the very last cousin"). As the world is more than 1000 years old, an assumed 20 years per generation gives >50 generations. Due to all the death and slaughter, a lot of those trees have been significantly pruned, but we have a LOT of ancestors to work from.

Wait... what makes you think it retroactively goes backward to ancestors? I'm not sure we have any indication that the spell goes backward beyond the ABD's generation. If it does go backward then a HUGE chunk of the world's population would be dead. Since they aren't I think it is reasonable to conclude that it doesn't go backward. Am I wrong?

[BaronOfHell]

Am I wrong?

Indeed, yes, I believe you are.

... What? Did you expect a reply containing actual semi-logical arguments regarding fantasy works?

[lorddrake]

Well, there IS a natural stopping point: Familicide as described in the comic cannot affect Tarquin, even if he had a child with Penelope (unless he has a common ancestor with a Draketooth in some other way). More generally, anyone who does not "share blood with [a blood relative of ABD]" is safe.

It's still a horrific number of people, even an implausible number. But it's not EVERYONE.

But by your definition Penelope wouldn't die. She does not share the Draketooth bloodline, she just made a Draketooth baby.

[Math_Mage]

Wait... what makes you think it retroactively goes backward to ancestors? I'm not sure we have any indication that the spell goes backward beyond the ABD's generation. If it does go backward then a HUGE chunk of the world's population would be dead. Since they aren't I think it is reasonable to conclude that it doesn't go backward. Am I wrong?

To share blood with ABD only requires a common ancestor, not a LIVING common ancestor. Carrying "the blood of the dragon" is enough. ABD's bloodline stretches back to the beginning of the world; to 'directly share that bloodline' does not require that the dragon be one of those ancestors or descendants.

[hamishspence]

The Draketooth baby is a blood relative of ABD (clause 1).

Penelope is "directly related" to her baby (clause 2).

[lorddrake]

Yes, I understand that, but what about the hypothetical son of Penelope and Tarquin, how would this baby be killed by Familicide?

[Math_Mage]

Yes, I understand that, but what about the hypothetical son of Penelope and Tarquin, how would this baby be killed by Familicide?

Blood relative of Penelope's Draketooth child--half-sibling, to be specific. Per V's description (twice over), that makes it a target.

[ThePhantasm]

To share blood with ABD only requires a common ancestor, not a LIVING common ancestor. Carrying "the blood of the dragon" is enough. ABD's bloodline stretches back to the beginning of the world; to 'directly share that bloodline' does not require that the dragon be one of those ancestors or descendants.

Yes, I understand that point, but I'm not 100% convinced that that is what the strip itself means by "bloodline." I see no indication in any of the strips that the spell works backward to common ancestors, only that it effects those generations after the ABD. Anything else would have had much more massive effects than what we see in the strip (granted, the art form is limited, but even in terms of plot or world reaction to the deaths... we just haven't seen widespread effects yet).

So I'm not sure how to interpret it, I guess... either on the plot hole side of things, or the "only generations after ABD" side of things. We have too little info on exactly how familicide works. Hopefully some future strips will bring some clarity.

[JCarter426]

The ancient black dragon had no living descendents. If it didn't go backwards, the spell wouldn't have done anything.

[dtilque]

Considering his ECL was probably something between 70-90 (this is assuming the soul splice simply adds up each caster's level with V's), then probably not.

That's probably a real bad assumption. As I understand it, it takes twice as many XP to go from level N to level N+1 as it does from level N-1 to level N. So adding up levels linearly is not a good idea. It'd be like adding 2⁶ and 2⁸ and getting 2¹⁴.

[ThePhantasm]

The ancient black dragon had no living descendents. If it didn't go backwards, the spell wouldn't have done anything.

Yeah, I guess so.

This whole familicide thing doesn't make a lot of sense to me at the moment. I still don't like it as a plot development. When people were suggesting the Draketooth's were killed by familicide, I was holding out for it to be something else. I get the whole "amp up V's character plot" angle but the effects of the spell as we see them in the strip don't make a whole lot of sense.

[BaronOfHell]

What parts exactly doesn't make sense and why do you think they don't make sense?

[Chess435]

I personally believe that it just goes as far back as people are alive. The spell would get you only if there was a currently living link between you and the original target.

[Chess435]

Considering his ECL was probably something between 70-90 (this is assuming the soul splice simply adds up each caster's level with V's), then probably not.

Xykon was able to drop V's buffs via superb dispelling, which only has a +40 on the dispel check. So it couldn't have been that high, I believe.

[BaronOfHell]

Xykon was able to drop V's buffs via superb dispelling, which only has a +40 on the dispel check. So it couldn't have been that high, I believe.

At that time Haerta wasn't spliced to V, so the ECL would have dropped.

That's probably a real bad assumption. As I understand it, it takes twice as many XP to go from level N to level N+1 as it does from level N-1 to level N. So adding up levels linearly is not a good idea. It'd be like adding 26 and 28 and getting 214.

Then soul splices would be "close to worthless". At least it'd not put V on an ECL where no encounter would give experience.

Let's assume the three splices were level 22, 22 and 28. It requires double as much experience as the previous level up required to gain a single level. The amount of exp required to go from level 1->2 is denoted as K.
Thereby going from:
Level 1->2 requires 2^0*k exp
Level 2->3 requires 2^1*k exp
Level 3->4 requires 2^2*k exp
Etc.
Going from level 1 -> level N would require:
k*(2^0 + 2^1 + ... + 2^(N-3) + 2^(N-2)) = k*(2^(N-1)-1)
(Which becomes obvious when realising that
2^N = 2^(N-1)+2^(N-1)=2^(N-1)+2^(N-2)+2^(N-2) =2^(N-1)+2^(N-2)+....
+2^0 + 2^0
Otherwise, multiplying through with (2-1) also makes it quite obvious.
Anyway, the total experience of a level 15 Wizard, 2 times level 22 and 1 times level 28 players equals k*(2^14+2^21+2^21+2^27-4) is approx k * (2^14 + 2^14*2^8 + 2^14*2^8*2^5-4) approx= k * (2^14*(2^8+1)+2^14*2^8*2^5 - 4) approx= k * (2^14*2^8*(2^5+1)-4) approx= k*2^27.
In other words, there'd be no effective difference in such a case between a level 28 alone and a level 28 together with two level 22's and a single level 15 character.

So if the case was that the ECL of the splice made V's ECL so high that no encounter would grant experience, it implies that since it's obvious the splices were of much higher level, that the total ECL was at most 1.5 level above the level of the highest splice and that's assuming all splice were of equal level.

In which case the same could be said for each individual splice, which would not make sense, since they'd certainly be encounters for eachother which would grant experience. So I think it's quite reasonable to actually add the levels together in stead of requiring the total amount of experience to add up, unless one character was at a level way beyond anything ever seen.

[Snails]

This whole familicide thing doesn't make a lot of sense to me at the moment. I still don't like it as a plot development. When people were suggesting the Draketooth's were killed by familicide, I was holding out for it to be something else. I get the whole "amp up V's character plot" angle but the effects of the spell as we see them in the strip don't make a whole lot of sense.

There is nothing confusing about the Draketooths. Every last one is a direct descendant of the ABD -- descendants that the ABD herself probably forgot about (or never knew about) nearly a century ago.

That is plain as day, given the mural.

The hard to understand part is who else might be killed, whether V murdered a hundred people or a thousand people or a hundred thousand people. There is much ambiguity there, but that is not plot development critical. V understands he is a murderer who could give Belkar more than a run for his money, and the rest would be (so far) unimportant details.

[Math_Mage]

There is nothing confusing about the Draketooths. Every last one is a direct descendant of the ABD -- descendants that the ABD herself probably forgot about (or never knew about) nearly a century ago.

That is plain as day, given the mural.

Clear as mud. ABD has ONE child, the YABD. Hence the Draketooths cannot be her descendants.

[ThePhantasm]

There is nothing confusing about the Draketooths. Every last one is a direct descendant of the ABD -- descendants that the ABD herself probably forgot about (or never knew about) nearly a century ago.

That is plain as day, given the mural.

The hard to understand part is who else might be killed, whether V murdered a hundred people or a thousand people or a hundred thousand people. There is much ambiguity there, but that is not plot development critical. V understands he is a murderer who could give Belkar more than a run for his money, and the rest would be (so far) unimportant details.

You are right, there is nothing confusing about the Draketooths. The confusing part is all the non-Draketooths and the question of how widespread the effects of the spell are. I disagree that it would not be plot development critical. The effects should show widespread death across the globe as well as people trying to get to the bottom of said deaths... think of the TV show FlashForward as a loose example. But the Order in its journey on the Western Continent has heard of no such widespread mystery, Penelope aside. THAT doesn't make sense.

[BaronOfHell]

In principle only child could also mean that it's the only descendant who's still a child. Though it fits poorly with how the ABD says it was the only thing reminding her of the childs father (unless she had other mates earlier) and it also fits poorly with how the ABD described she was with her son and husband and not mentioning anyone else in particular. But if the ABD really had only a single succesful mating and it requires an age of 800 to be regarded as ancient, then either the ABD was reproducing less than what I personally have assumed for the slow breeding dragons, or the black dragons really did not reproduce a lot. (Though one child pr. ~800 year would mean there'd be very very very few ABD in the world, unless there was a lot to begin with, at which case I doubt 25% would have been wiped out).

So the ABD was probably just a special case in low reproduction rate among a species of already low reproduction rate.

The effects should show widespread death across the globe as well as people trying to get to the bottom of said deaths...

The effect might have created a widespread death across the globe, but we don't know the density of the spread of death, which is a requirement for the level of investigation. I would not be surprised if at some point, the pieces comes together and people realise how it all happened at the same time (and if the effect was visible, same effect), but it doesn't mean it'll happen after two weeks.
Further more, we've little evidence of how much this particular branch of this particular race of dragons were interbreeding with other species and for how many generations. We don't know the breeding rates of these generations and how convulted their family trees would be. Finally we have little idea how attractive cross breeded races are. Personally, I think they won't get that many children, not only because of a low reproduction rate, but because not many would find them attractive as a mate.
Finally, since BD's are a non-uncommon encounter, it's to be expected that large parts of the actual blood relatives were already dead, meaning that large parts of possible second clause effects were prevented.

I mean, don't get me wrong, this spell, as I understand it, could totally wipe out entire species, but I don't find the way it's been portrayed by the giant given the target to be unrealistic.

[Math_Mage]

I understand how genetics work, but the thing is V said: "any creature that directly shares your bloodline is dead". http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0640.html

I don't interpret that as including cousins, but okay then, I accept that it is the only way to make it work. Cousins do share genes (blood) after all even if they are not in the same line.

But it doesn't help much, because now there is no way to add a "trough living" clause. Cousins share blood even if their grandmother is dead. Given a thousand years of interbreeding, it has to have a cutoff where the amount of genes shared are to low, if not then it would still depopulate the species.

For black dragons, this is definitely not the case. Given OotSworld is less than two millennia old, and there's a generation gap of at least ~400 years to be reasonable (~700-800 between ABD and her child YABD), you really don't have that many generations to work with.

For humans, it's a completely different matter, because we have upwards of 50 generations to deal with. Even with high inbreeding and very little cross-continent gene mixture and 3 continents' worth of humans to start (which we know to be the case), the effect on the Western Continent would be quite drastic. So there probably needs to be some kind of consanguinity limit on Clause 2, at the least.

[Math_Mage]

In principle only child could also mean that it's the only descendant who's still a child. Though it fits poorly with how the ABD says it was the only thing reminding her of the childs father (unless she had other mates earlier) and it also fits poorly with how the ABD described she was with her son and husband and not mentioning anyone else in particular. But if the ABD really had only a single succesful mating and it requires an age of 800 to be regarded as ancient, then either the ABD was reproducing less than what I personally have assumed for the slow breeding dragons, or the black dragons really did not reproduce a lot. (Though one child pr. ~800 year would mean there'd be very very very few ABD in the world, unless there was a lot to begin with, at which case I doubt 25% would have been wiped out).

So the ABD was probably just a special case in low reproduction rate among a species of already low reproduction rate.

Most likely. In my analysis of whether it was reasonable for the two-iterations-of-blood-relatives interpretation of Familicide to wipe out 25% of black dragons, I assumed 2-3 children per generation and a ~400 year generation gap, averaging between minimum age of sexual maturity and ABD's apparent generation gap, making ABD's grandparents the likely first-generation black dragons. This resulted in ~50-60 black dragons in the first generation, which I find reasonable (but then I heavily massaged the calculations of necessity, since there's way too much potential variance).

[Dungeonstone]

On the whole of it, there simply may not be that many humans who have gone out of their way to have children with a dragon (a black dragon no less) in the 1000 or so years that the Stick-verse has been around.

Add to this that many of those people may be of the "adventurer type" who in turn may not have had all that many living relatives around to start with.

After all, how many "origin stories" start with a lone survivor of some wiped out clan or village going out in the world to become powerful enough to seek revenge/justice for the crimes against their dead relations?

Or the "orphaned child" struggling to escape poverty through an adventuring career?

On top of that there is one additional factor involved.. OotS has notorious tunnel vision in its focus on the main characters who in turn have ZERO way of knowing if a "plague of deaths" swept through several distant cities on the day V went all mass murderer, until they either travel to said cities or gain word of the event from some external source.

[BaronOfHell]

Which was a really well made analysis, btw. Math_Mage. Please allow me to compliment for a very fine piece of work!

[XxXU2XxX]

It wasn't a one night stand! It was at LEAST a whirlwind courtship followed by raising the child till they were weaned. That poor Weepie...

[Porthos]

but the effects of the spell as we see them in the strip don't make a whole lot of sense.

As I said elsewhere I think this is because people are treating the Fluff too much like Crunch.

See, here's my point. We're almost at the Blind Men and the Elephant situation when it comes to Familicide. We have incomplete descriptions of the spell yet we are treating those descriptions as the Hard and Iron Clad rules of the spell.

For instance, just what does "directly share your bloodline" even mean. No, not colloquially. Not philosophically or genetically. I mean, what does it mean in terms of a Mechanical Effect.

Heck if I know. And, really, when it comes right down to it, Heck if anyone else knows either. If there was an easy answer to "directly share your bloodline" and "directly related to that creature"* there wouldn't now be 3000+ posts on this subject and climbing.

No, there wouldn't.

Yes, really.

No. Yes. Yes.

So, maybe that's where the 'not a lot of sense' is coming in. People are trying to figure out the exact mechanics of the spell from Fluff/Partial Crunch and banging their heads on the wall when they can't get said exact mechanics or get it to make sense to their satisfaction. But unless Rich gives us more info, I highly doubt we can get exact mechanics. To paraphrase a famous phrase, one can only get so much blood out of a turnip after all.

* NOTE::: As an aside, I tend to think that some people are treating "directly share your bloodline" and "directly related to that creature" as having the exact same results. But if "share your bloodline" and "related to" are even slightly different mechanically, then the affects of the two clauses can be different.

In fact, they really should be different, otherwise V would have repeated the language word for word in each 'clause'. So if people are looking for their Limiting Factor, there it is.

How does it exactly limit it? And just where the line is drawn?

I believe I said the phrase "Heck if I know" earlier. All I know is that millions of people weren't killed, so there must be a line somewhere. And if we can't tease it out from the info that V gave us, then I'm willing to be it was in the actual Stat Block for the spell.

Which, BTW, we don't have.