Dethy Tournament--Heat Three in progress!--Still Recruiting!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yo-de-lay-heeee-hoo, Chessie.

[Chessgeek]

Murska is guilty. I blame time zones.

[Murska]

Innocent Pizzaguy. Good night.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Tanar............

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sorry, Tanar, I'm an impatient Pizzaman.

Chessgeek. Guilty

Also a sneaky-sneaky Pizzaman.

I can has cheezburger? posted my full results already.

• TheFieryTower got Chessgeek as Innocent
• Chessgeek got Murska as Guilty
• Murska got Askthepizzaguy as Innocent
• Tanar got TheFieryTower as _________
• Askthepizzaguy got Chessgeek as Guilty

Tanar's results can only result in Universes A or B. I'm bored enough to look at both, and...

I don't want to wait.... for the round to be over....
I want to know right now, who is likely guilty....







Universe A: Tanar scries TFT Guilty.

Spoiler

Show

TheFieryTower got Chessgeek as Innocent
Chessgeek got Murska as Guilty
Tanar got TheFieryTower as Guilty
Murska got Askthepizzaguy as Innocent
Askthepizzaguy got Chessgeek as Guilty


Cogitating.....

If.... (down)	Fiery is...	Chess is...	Tanar is...	Murska is...	ATPG is...	Is it possible?
Fiery is Mafia	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Paranoid	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Chess is Mafia	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Plausible
Tanar is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Murska is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
ATPG is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Paranoid/Insane	Naive/Insane	MAFIA	Plausible

This Universe yields a lot of outcomes which are all plausible. But noticeable:

Askthepizzaguy is almost always Paranoid or Insane. Notably, if I am Insane, Chessgeek is always innocent.

If I am Paranoid, Chessgeek is likely to be Insane and if so, that would make Murska innocent, something that is already indicated as likely. And if Murska is Naive and innocent, and Askthepizzaguy/Chessgeek are Paranoid/Insane, that would make TheFieryTower Sane and potentially proving that Chessgeek is innocent, who, in turn, may be proving Murska innocent. Either me and TFT prove Chessgeek innocent, or Chessgeek and TFT prove Murska innocent and I prove Chessgeek innocent. These results are the most useful.

Murska as Sane cop makes Pizza innocent, but more likely, Murska as Naive Cop makes TFT likely Mafia or the Sane cop.

If I am the Sane Cop, Chessgeek is Mafia, and TFT is Insane or Paranoid, and Tanar is Insane or Paranoid, but this is rare and we should be able to discount that by me scanning Murska, who is forced to be Naive in that scenario and I must therefore get an innocent result on him, and I won't, because I'm probably not the Sane Cop.

Murska is always Naive or a candidate for Naive, except when he's Mafia. Which lends itself to the conclusion he really is our Naive Cop and highly likely to be innocent, which makes Chess Paranoid or Insane.

Chessgeek is almost always Paranoid or Insane, except when our Naive Cop is Mafia, which lends itself to the conclusion Chess is Paranoid or Insane. Which also matches my Insane result on him, making him our likely Paranoid Cop. And if he were the Insane Cop, he would also prove Murska innocent, something we already deem very likely. So either Chess as Insane or Paranoid makes Chess and Murska both look good.

Tanar is only Sane when TFT is Mafia. Otherwise, Tanar is the third candidate for Paranoid or Insane, which is unlikely from my perspective. That would mean either I am guilty or Chessgeek is, and the evidence tends to suggest otherwise, given the Pizza-Chess-Murska-TFT results.

Since there cannot be three paranoid/insane cops, Tanar cannot be ruled out as Mafia from these results and is also likely to be mafia.

The Fiery Tower is Sane more often than anyone else, and the exceptions are when Chess or Murska are mafia, both of which are unlikely in my view. And if he is Sane, he's again proving Chessgeek is innocent. And at the same time, proving Murska is Naive by process of elimination.

Therefore, I am not lynching Chessgeek. We also should not lynch Murska.

That leaves myself, Tanar, and TFT. I believe that my results and/or TFT's results are essential to solving the game, and also, trap either one of us if we were guilty. Tanar's results haven't been revealed yet, and no matter which way they lean, all they can realistically do is remove Chessgeek from contention, something that Pizza or TFT's results likely did already.

Tanar's results are therefore the least useful and most likely to be a third Paranoid/Insane claimant, in my view.

But let's pretend Tanar reveals Universe B, before we get ahead of ourselves.

Universe B: Tanar scries TFT Innocent.

Spoiler

Show

TheFieryTower got Chessgeek as Innocent
Chessgeek got Murska as Guilty
Tanar got TheFieryTower as Innocent
Murska got Askthepizzaguy as Innocent
Askthepizzaguy got Chessgeek as Guilty


Reticulating Splines.....

If.... (down)	Fiery is...	Chess is...	Tanar is...	Murska is...	ATPG is...	Is it possible?
Fiery is Mafia	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Naive/Insane	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Chess is Mafia	Sane/Naive	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Impossible
Tanar is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Murska is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Sane/Naive	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
ATPG is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Naive	Naive/Insane	MAFIA	Plausible

Universe B Removes Chessgeek from contention entirely, because then nobody is the Insane Cop, which is impossible. You never lynch Chessgeek here.

In both Universes, I am pretty much always the Insane Cop, or paranoid cop, if insane that would make Chessgeek innocent, which is quite consistent.

Chessgeek is always the Paranoid or Insane Cop, except if Murska is mafia, and if Insane would prove that Murska is innocent, and Murska is pretty much always the Naive Cop, which is very consistent.

Which makes Fiery the most likely Sane Cop in every universe except when he's Mafia, which is indicated against due to a lack of other convincing Sane Cop candidates, or Chessgeek is Mafia, something highly indicated against.

Note that Tanar as Sane cop is indicated when Murska is mafia (highly doubtful) Pizza is Mafia (fat chance) or when Chess is mafia (impossible in this universe). That's why Tanar as Sane Cop reeks on my smell-o-meter in Universe B.

In this Universe, Tanar would be claiming to be the Sane Cop, since Murska is pretty much always the Naive Cop. I deem the three scenarios where Tanar is the Sane Cop in Universe B to be highly indicated against, or known to be impossible by me. That would leave TheFieryTower as mafia as the only situation where Tanar as innocent would be plausible to me, but I do not believe Tanar is our Naive Cop. In any case, that would force Murska to be the Sane Cop and me to be innocent regardless, pretty much forcing a TFT lynch. If the game doesn't end, Tanar gets lynched and we win.

Notable, in this Universe, Tanar's result would be mostly suggesting that Murska is in fact Naive, and that Chess and Pizza are the Paranoid and Insane Cops.

Which would point Tanar at TheFieryTower, in this universe. The guy who is the top candidate for Sane Cop in both universes.

I don't think so. I'd rather remove Tanar first.

Stuff that I'm aware of because I'm innocent, and/or find likely or improbable:

Spoiler

Show

I'm not mafia, and because of that, I doubt that Murska or Chessgeek are. My result or Chess' result has to be the Insane one, and whoever is the Sane Cop tends to back up that result in turn.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that I am in fact the Insane Cop. There's no scenario where I cannot be the Insane cop, except when Chess is Mafia (highly indicated against) or Chess is the Insane Cop, which would make my result prove him innocent anyway. It's basically the same damned thing. Tanar can even remove him from contention entirely today with a TFT innocent result, which would also confirm the likelihood of Askthepizzaguy/Chess as Insane and Paranoid, respectively.

Even if Tanar doesn't do that, Pizza Insane, Chess Paranoid, Murska Naive is still the most likely outcome.

If.... (down)	Fiery is...	Chess is...	Tanar is...	Murska is...	ATPG is...	Is it possible?
Fiery is Mafia	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Paranoid	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Chess is Mafia	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Plausible
Tanar is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Murska is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible

If.... (down)	Fiery is...	Chess is...	Tanar is...	Murska is...	ATPG is...	Is it possible?
Fiery is Mafia	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Naive/Insane	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Chess is Mafia	Sane/Naive	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Impossible
Tanar is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Murska is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Sane/Naive	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible

Look at the patterns.

Pizza appears to be Insane or Paranoid, IMO Insane, which makes Chess Paranoid, and Murska is likely Naive.

If I remove the Pizza, Murska, and Chessgeek rows:

If.... (down)	Fiery is...	Chess is...	Tanar is...	Murska is...	ATPG is...	Is it possible?
Fiery is Mafia	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Paranoid	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	LIKELY
Tanar is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	LIKELY

If.... (down)	Fiery is...	Chess is...	Tanar is...	Murska is...	ATPG is...	Is it possible?
Fiery is Mafia	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Naive/Insane	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Unlikely
Tanar is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	LIKELY

Because I believe Murska is the Naive Cop, I doubt the Universe B scenario where Murska is the Sane Cop.

I also doubt Tanar is the Sane Cop. The Fiery Tower is pretty much consistently the Sane Cop in both universes, except when Chess is guilty or Murska is guilty, two outcomes I deem highly unlikely.

TheFieryTower is the Mafia sometimes, but whenever TFT is the Mafia, the Sane Cop is always Tanar or Murska, and Murska is pretty much always the Naive Cop.

Universe A, where Tanar has the best chance of survival, Tanar also pretty much always ends up claiming the role that I have, which is the same as saying I'm Mafia, because Chessgeek is almost never mafia. Ergo, I vote Tanar in both universes and Tanar should be the first lynch.

Conclusions?

Spoiler

Show

Somewhat inconclusive, especially without Tanar's result which can prove Chess innocent unequivocally, but the most likely scenarios, from where I sit, are:

Murska is likely Naive and Innocent, and can be proven so using scries in the time remaining.

Chessgeek is likely Paranoid/Insane and Innocent, and can be proven so using scries in the time remaining.

Asltthepizzaguy is Insane/Paranoid and Innocent. However, there's not enough time to prove it using scries, since we likely have no useful results on me yet. I believe Murska's result on me is absolutely null, however, if he got a guilty result on someone, that would hurt me. But he won't get a guilty result on anyone because he's not mafia in my opinion, and he's also not the insane cop in my opinion, because I'm not Mafia. Murska, feel free to scry Chessgeek, he'd basically be forced to be the Paranoid Cop, so you'd get a guilty result on him if I were Mafia, but I'm not Mafia. That can potentially prove me guilty (I'm not) but Murska cannot prove me innocent, and no one else has a result on me, and since everyone but Chessgeek is a suspect in Universe B, and Chessgeek is likely to be paranoid, his result cannot prove me innocent either. All he can do is potentially prove me guilty by scrying me as Innocent. I just can never be completely exonerated. Chessgeek, feel free to scry me.

If both players do as I indicated in blue, I cannot murder both of them in time to stop myself from being potentially proven guilty.

There.

I checkmated myself.

I get the MVP for catching myself as Mafia... if I'm Mafia.

....Woot?

Now then, continuing along more plausible lines:

TheFieryTower is usually the Sane Cop except when he's Mafia. I lean that he's the Sane cop, based on the way the round unfolded.

Tanar is Insane or Mafia in Universe A, except when TFT is Mafia. Tanar is Naive (unlikely) or Mafia in Universe B.

The persons with the most evidence in their favor are Murska and Chessgeek.
Following that, TheFieryTower looks to be Sane, and it is consistent that he is Sane, although not proven.
Following that, Askthepizzaguy does a good job giving evidence why others are innocent, but not himself. You may attempt to prove me guilty but there's not enough time and data to prove me innocent, I don't think?
Tanar gives us the least amount of information in both universes and proves nobody innocent except maybe Chessgeek, who is already pretty much covered by my and TFT's scries. Also, there's no data about Tanar which suggests Tanar is likely to be innocent.

Lynchees are TFT and Tanar, IMO, because it's possible to prove me guilty using scries if I am guilty.

I heavily favor Tanar Aerdoth as the lynchee today for all these reasons.

If TheFieryTower is Sane, he can scry me guilty if I were guilty. If Chessgeek is Insane, he can scry me innocent if I were guilty. If Tanar is Insane, Tanar can scry me innocent if I were guilty.

That's enough ways to prove me guilty that I should get a pass.

Going to go ahead and point the pizza paddle in Tanar Aerdoth's general direction.

Tanar guilty 75% of the time, TFT guilty 20% of the time, one of pizza or murska guilty approximately never, but let's call it five percent, Chessgeek proven innocent in universe B and essentially always proven innocent in universe A.

- - - Updated - - -

Hmmm I am looking over my thing and I may have to issue a correction.

In Universe B, TFT scrying "Chessgeek-as-mafia" innocent would mean he's the Insane/Naive cop, not the Sane/Naive cop. Which by process of elimination would make him the Insane Cop, and by that same process would make me the Paranoid Cop, with Murska/Tanar as the Sane/Naives. So that's plausible.

But then you would have a method of proving Chessgeek's alignment, since there are two Chessgeek results of the opposing variety. That should mean there's enough scry results and scrying power to conclusively prove Chessgeek guilty or innocent.

That lends itself to the idea that you don't do a blind lynch on Chessgeek today regardless.

Also, I probably shouldn't be doing this while I'm sick and hopped up on Robitussin. Boredom got the better of me.

[Tris]

It's Universe A

- - - Updated - - -

Um, Fiery Tower can't be paranoid

- - - Updated - - -

So, a more accurate table is this.

If.... (down)	Fiery is...	Chess is...	Tanar is...	Murska is...	ATPG is...	Is it possible?
Fiery is Mafia	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Paranoid	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Chess is Mafia	Naive/Insane	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Plausible
Tanar is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
Murska is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Sane/Paranoid	Paranoid/Insane	MAFIA	Paranoid/Insane	Plausible
ATPG is Mafia	Sane/Naive	Paranoid/Insane	Paranoid/Insane	Naive/Insane	MAFIA	Plausible

[Tris]

I'm not quite sure about your probabilities? Like could you explain more clearer why Murska and Chessgeek are unlikely to be Mafia?

- - - Updated - - -

So this is a list of all the possibilities

Spoiler: List

Show

TFT maf Chess para Tanar sane Murska naïve ATGP insane
TFT maf Chess insane Tanar sane Murska naïve ATGP para

TFT naïve Chess maf Tanar insane Murska sane ATGP para
TFT insane Chess maf Tanar para Murska naïve ATGP sane

TFT sane Chess para Tanar maf Murska naïve ATGP insane
TFT naïve Chess para Tanar maf Murska sane ATGP insane
TFT sane Chess insane Tanar maf Murska naïve ATGP para
TFT naïve Chess insane Tanar maf Murska sane ATGP para

TFT naïve Chess sane Tanar para Murska maf ATGP insane
TFT naïve Chess sane Tanar insane Murska maf ATGP para

TFT sane Chess para Tanar insane Murska naïve ATGP maf
TFT sane Chess insane Tanar para Murska naïve ATGP maf

So, the probabilities are (Probability assuming I'm innocent in parenthesis)

Spoiler: Probabilities

Show

TFT
Maf: 2/12 (2/8)
Sane: 4/12 (2/8)
Insane: 1/12 (1/8)
Naïve: 5/12 (3/8)

Chess
Maf: 2/12 (2/8)
Sane: 2/12 (2/8)
Insane: 4/12 (2/8)
Para: 4/12 (2/8)

Tanar
Maf: 4/12 (0/8)
Sane: 2/12 (2/8)
Insane: 3/12 (3/8)
Para: 3/12 (3/8)

Murska
Maf: 2/12 (2/8)
Sane: 3/12 (1/8)
Naive: 7/12 (5/8)

ATPG
Maf: 2/12 (2/8)
Sane: 1/12 (1/8)
Insane: 4/12 (2/8)
Para: 5/12 (3/8)

Preliminary notes on that; I am the most likely to be maf. (I know I'm innocent though ) Everyone else has exactly the same chance. TFT is the most likely to be Sane. For Insane it's a tie between ATGP and Chessgeek. Murska is over 50% likely to be Naive. It's a tie between ATGP and TFT for Paranoid. Oops, ATGP is the most likely in the this category. TFT can't be paranoid.

[Tris]

On ATPG's plan to get caught:

so you'd get a guilty result on him if I were Mafia

If you're guilty, he would get a innocent result because he would be Naïve.

prove me guilty by scrying me as Innocent

This would only narrow it down to one of you or him being mafia. You're forgetting that his scries need not be true.

So, it doesn't work.

[Murska]

All right, most of the analysis has been done.

TheFieryTower got Chessgeek as Innocent
Chessgeek got Murska as Guilty
Tanar got TheFieryTower as Guilty
Murska got Askthepizzaguy as Innocent
Askthepizzaguy got Chessgeek as Guilty

Hmm. I think that Tanar is most likely to be the lynch target due to having the highest chance of being Maf, and having little to no information on him. So let's focus on cases where he is not the Maf.

The following analysis is for myself, and discounts cases where I am Maf.

Spoiler

Show

Murska
Maf: (2/8)
Sane: (1/8) ((1/6))
Naive: (5/8) ((5/6))

If Tanar is not Maf, the only chance for me to be Sane is when Chess is Maf, so I'll be checking Chessgeek.

If I'm Naive, TFT is not, ergo:

TFT
Maf: (2/8) ((2/5))
Sane: (2/8) ((2/5))
Insane: (1/8) (1/5))
Naïve: (3/8)

If TFT is Insane, then Chess is Maf, if TFT is Sane, then ATPG is Maf. If TFT checks me and gets guilty, Chess if Maf, if Inno, ATPG is Maf.

Chess
Maf: (2/8) ((1/3))
Sane: (2/8)
Insane: (2/8) ((1/3))
Para: (2/8) ((1/3))

Well, tough to say from here. Paranoid or Insane, if innocent. More likely to be Insane than anyone else.

ATPG
Maf: (2/8) ((1/3))
Sane: (1/8) ((1/6))
Insane: (2/8) ((1/6))
Para: (3/8) ((1/3))

Most likely to be paranoid or Maf. If Sane, Chess is Maf, if Insane, TFT is Maf. If ATPG checks me and gets Inno, Chess is Maf.

[Tris]

I'm tired right now, and I can't get my brain to work anymore, so I'll return to this in the morning. Goodnight. It's 1:48 AM over here.

- - - Updated - - -

One more note, though. Having no scries on me is actually a bad reason to lynch me; That means you get less info from my lynch.

[Murska]

Not really. You posted the probability list yourself. If we lynch you, and you turn out to be innocent, we get rid of 4 possible worlds. In anyone else's case, it's just 2.

[Tris]

I guess that's true. I'm not sure what I was thinking.

- - - Updated - - -

So, I guess I am the best to lynch. I think TFT and Pizzaguy should investigate the same person, that is Murska, because they have their scries are the most potentially informative. Murska obviously investigates Chessgeek. I don't think it matters much who Chessgeek goes for.

- - - Updated - - -

Tanar Aerdoth

[Murska]

I would love to at least hear from the others before ending this day. Plus, well, if Tanar is the Maf then he has brass balls of steel with that self-vote.

EDIT: Rules question. If I scry someone who is killed on the same night, do I get a result?

[Zjoot]

EDIT: Rules question. If I scry someone who is killed on the same night, do I get a result?

That's how I resolved it in previous rounds, so yes. In the final, I think I will change that policy to a no, in order to give the mafia more strategic possibilities, but I think consistency for now is much fairer.

[Chessgeek]

I think it's the logical mafia play. Arguing vehemently against the lynch would be futile given the odds worked out, so self-voting is the only other option.

It's also not an illogical village play, as again, the lynch is happening pretty much no matter what, so it doesn't hurt to save everyone time & energy by just eating the lynch.

Not much of a tell either way IMO. I'll make my vote a deadline vote on Tanar Aerdoth just in case anyone else has a strongly different opinion.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If I made more errors than I thought in my analysis, I'm a bit too weak to go over it again. I kind of shot my last ball of energy just then.

But I should unvote and give everyone more time to think.

Tanar Aerdoth

I do concur with Chessgeek, I'm actually not that impressed by the self-vote. If it looks like things are already heading in that direction, you have nothing to lose, look ice cold doing it, and even if you do lynch, it shortens the struggle you put yourself through.

[Zjoot]

I'm about 12 hours late, but it looks like it's been over three days since everyone showed up to play, so:

Day One Ends
Tamar Aerdothwas lynched. He was the Insane Cop

Please send in your night actions ASAP. After about 48 hours, I will process night actions weather they are in or not.

[Visor]

@Zjoot

I don't think you're supposed to reveal their role, just the alignment?

[Internet Flea]

Yeah, giving the role kind of gives the game away.

[Zjoot]

*facepalm*

I am just falling apart this round. Sorry guys. Unless anyone thinks this trivializes this game, I'd rather keep going than start over yet again.

I apologize for all the mistakes this round. Luckily you only have to put up with the incompetence for a little while longer.

[Murska]

Just checking, but is posting at night ok?

[Zjoot]

Yes. I'm fine with it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just to be on the safe side, I think we should wait until morning to comment further.

[Murska]

Well, it might be too late, but here's what I wanted to post. I actually did post it, and then deleted it, because I wasn't sure.

Okay, this does make it easier.

Possible worlds:

TFT naïve Chess maf Tanar insane Murska sane ATPG para

TFT naïve Chess sane Tanar insane Murska maf ATPG para

TFT sane Chess para Tanar insane Murska naïve ATPG maf

I'll check Chessgeek. If I get Guilty, Chess is Maf. If I get Innocent, ATPG is Maf.

ATPG's check doesn't matter.

Chess checks ATGP. If he gets Innocent, I'm Maf, if he gets Guilty, ATPG is Maf.

TFT checks ATGP. If he gets Guilty, ATPG is Maf. If he gets Innocent, either me or Chess is maf.

Maf will kill one of us. If he kills ATPG, I don't even. If he kills TFT, and he's ATPG, both me and Chess know he's Maf. Otherwise ATPG gets to pick between us two. If he kills someone other than TFT, and he's ATPG, TFT (who is cleared) knows ATPG is Maf. So basically ATPG maf can't win.

If it's me or Chess, well, I'll know it's Chess. But whoever's left alive after the night with us two will simply have to choose right.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Askthepizzaguy Mafia can't win?

Hah. Never underestimate Askthepizzaguy.

There was a game called You Can't Win, and I won as mafia.

There was a game I got scried guilty N0 and was the last man standing.

I promise you, if I'm mafia, I will find a way.

[Murska]

Askthepizzaguy Mafia can't win?

Hah. Never underestimate Askthepizzaguy.

There was a game called You Can't Win, and I won as mafia.

There was a game I got scried guilty N0 and was the last man standing.

I promise you, if I'm mafia, I will find a way.

True. What I mean to say, if everyone plays mechanically correctly, ATPG Maf can't win. That is, to win as Maf, you must now play the players, not the game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

True. What I mean to say, if everyone plays mechanically correctly, ATPG Maf can't win. That is, to win as Maf, you must now play the players, not the game.

It was an empty boast. I'm not that conceited. I just roleplay that I am.

[Zjoot]

All night actions are in and it's time for the big reveal!

Murska is today's lucky winner! His prize? Murder!. As you might guess, he is innocent. Commence the final day!

[Askthepizzaguy]

As expected I'm the paranoid cop. Well, actually I thought I was the insane cop yesterday, and Tanar's flip made me go bwuh.


TheFieryTower got Chessgeek as Innocent------Forced innocent due to Tanar's scry, Naive Cop with an innocent scan result
Chessgeek got Murska as Guilty
Tanar got TheFieryTower as Guilty---------------Insane Cop, which forces TFT to be innocent.
Murska got Askthepizzaguy as Innocent---------Naive Cop, methinks. But sane is possible. sane by brute force.
Askthepizzaguy got Chessgeek as Guilty--------Paranoid Cop, by fact of two guilty results.


Chessgeek, vote for me, me, vote for Chessgeek, TFT deciding vote.

TFT, I'm sorry my analysis sucked so bad. It was an honest attempt.

Do you have any other questions?


Edit: Sorry, my scry never mattered, but I looked at Murska last night. Guilty obviously.

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EDIT- Checking again.

Looking at TFT's scry of Chessgeek, he has to be the naive cop, with Murska as sane cop. Murska got a sane scry of innocent on me, and TFT should have gotten a scry of innocent on me as well, proving me innocent by brute force.

If TheFieryTower scried me last night, Chessgeek has a forced loss. Which wouldn't have been possible if we didn't know Tanar was insane. So it does end up breaking the game.

Sorry Chessgeek, I'd actually offer you a draw at this point, because it's only sporting.

[TFT]

Not leaving deciding vote to chance, rechecking the logic.

I'll be voting within the hour.

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Okay, here's my logic. After day one votes:

TFT = chess inno
MUST BE NAIVE/SANE/Insane
chess = murska guilty
MUST BE paranoid/sane/MAFIA/Insane
Tanar = tft guilty
MUST BE insane/parnoid/mafia (I am not guilty, so sane is impossible)
Murska = ATPG inno
MUST BE sane/naive/insane/mafia
ATPG = chess guilty
must be sane/paranoid/MAFIA/insane

Considering there can be no insane because Tanar is and Murska is confirmed inno, Day 2:

TFT = chess inno
MUST BE NAIVE/SANE
chess = murska guilty
MUST BE paranoid/sane/MAFIA
Tanar = tft guilty
MUST BE INSANE
Murska = ATPG inno
MUST BE sane/naive
ATPG = chess guilty
MUST BE sane/paranoid/MAFIA

My result was ATPG is inno.

Since I got inno on both ATPG and chess and one of them must be mafia, I cannot be sane. That forces me to be naive, forcing Murska to be sane.

TFT = chess inno
MUST BE NAIVE
chess = murska guilty
MUST BE paranoid/MAFIA
Tanar = tft guilty
MUST BE INSANE
Murska = ATPG inno
MUST BE sane
ATPG = chess guilty
must be paranoid/MAFIA

Since Murska must be sane, his scry on ATPG is accurate. ATPG is paranoid, chess is mafia.

chessgeek must be the mafia. Purely by logic.