Werewolf in the Forum [GAME ENDED]

[BourgeoisJerry]

"My time is better spent, of course, guarding my goods and not bandying about the meanings of words involving race when they pertain to the codification of a person's language and not their genetic heritage." Steven dons his trilby jauntily as he blows a very direct and literal raspberry back in Bonnie's direction.

Bonnie is stunned at first by Steven's rudeness. It takes her a moment to compose herself and come up with a retort, by which point nobody is around to hear her. Undaunted, she dons a pair of glasses she had brought with her in her luggage and walks out to the village square to deliver her correction to anyone who will listen. "Actually, race is a social construct that has more to do with external qualities than actual genetics. In fact, the term race was originally used to refer to speakers of a common language, such as 1337, and only later came to be associated with skin color and the like."

Satisfied, Bonnie removes her glasses and turns back to enter her cabin. But before entering, she stops and turns around, "Hey, does anybody want to play a game of frisbee?"

((And yeah, that claim was really silly. There was absolutely no need for a baner to out himself this early when the bandwagon could so easily turn against Tanar or myself.))

[Shadow]

So working off of flawed information about the seer's role that was clarified on page 5, you came to this conclusion and now you're extremely willing to kill off a possible power role in the game because they can't use their power effectively, which would give the wolves two kills today on the 1/28 chance that you're correct.

Yep.
Because you said it yourself. If he has a power role, he can't use it effectively. You know what that means?
That means he's effectively just a villager.
So what we're left with is:
(a) Maybe he's the Baner, but after the claim now he's just a villager. So we don't risk "losing a power role." We risk losing a villager.
--or--
(b) Maybe he's the Alpha.

I like those odds. That's absolutely a risk worth taking.

[Cuthalion]

Ah, this started. Okay.

Hm. Shadow is a good enough player that he could easily get off with appearing town while lynching the baner on the side. But then again, he does seem sincerely town.

Wolfbane... either he's a wolf thinking people won't lynch him, the baner, who doesn't want to be lynched, or a wolf, figuring that the chances of someone being a wolf and claiming baner are small, he'll get away butterscotch free.

Since neither of them are more than a fifty percent chance wolf, I'm poking Tanar.

[Saposhiente]

Again, outed baner > villager.
They can gamble their own lives to possibly save other people (not too bad of a gamble when they're not worth much), and if the Alpha dies before the Seer does then they become an unkillable confirmed innocent that can report scry results until the end of time.
Still willing to lynch Wolfbane at the moment.

[Anubis Dread]

The real issue is if he IS a Baner, then exposing himself was such an awful, awful move I would genuinelly worry that he'd bungle the role anyway. It sounds harsh, and he was probably just a bit desperate if he is a Baner, but it's probably the worst possible move he could have made.

[Shadow]

Perhaps I'm a bit biased about this one due to the ridiculous shenanigans that I pulled off in P3 when I got outed as Baner immediately.
If that's the case, then so be it.

I can see your point, Saph, but that point doesn't override my bias/judgement in this matter. It makes zero sense for him to claim that fast, as it only hurts us.

[Sorrcerousflux]

Im getting on the lynch Wolfbane band wagon. If he's the Baner, he just became useless; if he's a wolf or an alpha, we made a good choice.

[Logic]

Let's look at the scenarios:

A) Wolfbane as a villager of some kind: The wolves already know who is on their team, so trying to nightkill the one guy claiming to be the baner on turn 1 doesn't make much sense. They know he is a foe, so he is more than likely lying to distract them. It is also EXTREMELY unlikely that wolfbane is a villager with a different power role, and the real baner is not going to try to spare Wolfbane from a night kill. Most likely result: Wolfbane does not die by the wolves hands.

B) Wolfbane as a wolf: This is to sow confusion among the villagers, plain and simple. The real baner knows the truth, and is likely voting to lynch him.


Seer, do not waste a scry on Wolfbane.

As much as I hate to lose a villager, we can't risk a wolf sowing this much confusion. I must change my vote to Wolfbane. (My prior vote will be struck-through.)

Im getting on the lynch Wolfbane band wagon. If he's the Baner, he just became useless; if he's a wolf or an alpha, we made a good choice.

Not useless, just less useful than normal.

[Count Dingdong]

Okay, I think this merits a vote tally. I want to see where we are in terms of votes.

Vote Tally (~29 hours left)
Wolfbane - 10 (BourgeoisJerry, Aventine, AsteronIronhoof, Tanar Aerdoth, firedaemon33, Shadow, Anubis Dread, Saposhiente, Sorrcerousflux, Logic)
Tanar Aerdoth - 4 (Darkcomet, Deathslayer7, Legato Endless, Cuthalion)
Shadow - 2 (Nonayer, Slii Arhem)
BourgeoisJerry - 1 (Duck999)
Fleeing Coward - 1 (Sprig)
Shinken - 1 (ThePhantom)
Lex-Kat - 1 (Internet Flea)
Anubis Dread - 1 (Wolfbane)
Darkcomet - 1 (BasketOfPuppies)
Nonayer - 1 (EmeraldRose)
Logic - 1 (Count Dingdong)

No Vote - 5 (Alarra, Fleeing Coward, Lex-Kat, Penguinator, Shinken)


Yeah, that's what I thought. There's been support and pretty much no resistance to lynching Wolfbane. The claimed baner. Does anyone else find that odd? Yes, he may be lying. But it's Day 1. Do you want to lynch the Baner on Day 1 because he claimed? I agree that Baner is a stock claim as Wolf, since it makes people backpedal quickly. Same with Seer. But there's normally a backpedal. Or a counter-claim to cause such support to lynching the baner. Yes, he may be just a "villager" and not a PR now. But he's someone who, at the moment, we have less of a reason to lynch than practically anyone else. His power is not something to throw away; the threat of turtling means a shot at him by wolves would be wasted; he may actually be able to protect others, though self-protection is most important. Regardless, even if he is just a useless Baner now, he would still (as an uncontested Baner) be a confirmed town. There is NO need to lynch him right now. Day 1. With no counterclaim. And still a day left to wait for a counterclaim.

Why is there a *rush* to lynch Wolfbane? If he's a wolf, he'll be counterclaimed, or the real Baner will be killed. He can be lynched then. A wolf at this point would not last to endgame. At the moment, I'm not convinced that he's NOT the Baner. And if he is the Baner, it would be idiotic to lynch him. Day 1. Even if he is a wolf, there are other wolves. Not lynching him does not mean not lynching a wolf, and lynching him at the moment seems likely to be lynching a townie. Could someone give me a reason why we're so dead-set on lynching Wolfbane?

Anyway, this rush to lynch makes me think less and less that he's wolf. Why do the gambit if no one moves away? And again, even if he is, delaying the lynch is no loss to us, and lynching him now is bad if he's Baner.

((Yes, I was ninja'd by some others saying the same thing, but I'm just very confused by this whole situation and why everyone seems to want to lynch Wolfbane.))

- - - Updated - - -

There are also a lot of people claiming, with very little reasoning that Shadow is town, such as Tanar Aerdoth. Why? He's gotten, like, two votes at any given time. It's odd that people are defending him already.

- - - Updated - - -

I think shadow is town.

Hm. Shadow is a good enough player that he could easily get off with appearing town while lynching the baner on the side. But then again, he does seem sincerely town.

I suppose I'm about the only person trying to dissuade from a lynch of Wolfbane. I thought Saposhiente was, but then I saw he supports the lynch. And why is everyone saying that outing yourself as Baner is a bad move? At the time, he had five votes to second-place's two or three. And there had already been votes on Wolfbane with the reasoning that he was going to get lynched anyway, leading to an impression that he was far in the lead.

However, since at this point there's nothing to be gained by voting for anyone else...Wolfsbane.

Without saying anything, the trend would leave him in the lead. If he is Baner, he'd have to claim eventually (at least soft-claim) or be lynched as Baner, which is a waste. Doing it now gets rid of common problems with Baner claims: it's late in the day with no chance for a counterclaim. There is a lot of time for someone to counter him if he isn't Baner. So... why are people just assuming he isn't Baner? I'm just very confused here...

EDIT: Oh, update function. How I dislike you...

[BourgeoisJerry]

I think the fact that this is still the first day has something to do with it. Personally, I voted for him because I wanted to vote for somebody that hadn't already been pointed at, and he pointed at the person I had planned to point at myself. Then he and I became competing wagons, so I stuck with him. And now that he's the leading bandwagon, I don't want to switch away from him for fear that--whether he turns out to be a wolf or a baner--my switching votes would make me look really suspicious to certain people.

Of course, I lack a power, so looking somewhat suspicious fits pretty well into my normal strategy, but I prefer dodging bandwagons later in the game when we've had time to get a feel for what's going on.

Whatever, I'll go ahead and take my point away so it's easier for people to save him if they decide he's innocent. Though I still think it was silly of him to role claim instead of switching his vote to me and trying to get me lynched. Oh well, Alarra for not being active yet.

[Count Dingdong]

Heh. If I had waited just a second or so longer, I would have posted after BourgeoisJerry and not forced an update. So... just making sure people don't miss my recent post; it got auto-edited in above...

[Saposhiente]

You make an excellent point about the speed of his wagon's momentum, but Wolfbane is not new here. I can think of exactly one reasonable explanation for his claim, and eagerly await his defense of himself.

[Ionbound]

Yeah...After reading all this, I actually don't like the logic against Wolfy...So Tanar Aerdoth it is.

[Count Dingdong]

You make an excellent point about the speed of his wagon's momentum, but Wolfbane is not new here. I can think of exactly one reasonable explanation for his claim, and eagerly await his defense of himself.

Oh, I'd definitely like him to talk for himself. I don't know why he up and disappeared after claiming. It definitely has me suspicious. But I still see no reason to lynch him yet. And that's the problem I have with the lynch wagon right now. They have reasoning behind their points (though to some I disagree), but it's too rushed. It's too insistent that it has to be now. Halfway through the first day with a Baner claim. It's just... wow.

[Tris]

The thing I'm struggling with is that I'm starting to see the reason why it might not be a good idea to lynch Wolfbane, but I'm the secondary wagon right now. Below me Shadow has two votes, but he seems town to me. I guess I'll wait for Wolfbane to explain themself, but I'm afraid of there not being a good secondary wagon to switch to should I decide I don't want to lynch wolfbane. I think I'll take a look at people to see what might be a good idea. Hopefully Wolfbane is mafia and he gets lynched, but that might not be the case.

[Internet Flea]

Yeah...After reading all this, I actually don't like the logic against Wolfy...So Tanar Aerdoth it is.

I do like the logic against Wolfbane, but I don't like the wagon.

That means Tanar Aerdoth gets lynched.

[Anubis Dread]

Yeah I'm kind of in the same boat. On the one hand, no matter what Wolfbane ends up being this was an incredibly silly move that he probably deserves to get lynched for. One the other hand, if he's telling the truth, even a weak Baner is better than no Baner.

For now I'm sticking with Wolfbane, simply because he's either lieing or did something that seriously weakened the town as opposed to, say, sending out a few PMs, but if he has a damn good explanation I might change it.

[UncleWolf]

There's been quite a bit asked towards me, but for now I'm just going to touch on a few points. I should also note that I disappeared because of a headache and dinner. As well as wanting to see just how this day would turn.

First, I would like to note that a Baner, even a revealed one, is never useless. In a game that depends on numbers, a Baner can stave off defeat for another day, and should they risk themselves they can negate the odd Night Kill, setting the wolves back even further. Anyone who says that a Baner is useless and deserves to be lynched...well, that's either extremely fishy or is the mistake of a new player. From what I'm seeing, few of those on my bandwagon are brand new.

As for the risk of me being something else, that's always inherent in a game with an Alpha and a general scry result. That said, all I've been seeing is that I either have to either be Baner or Wolf when there are plenty of other roles in-between. Choosing to ignore those possibilities causes voluntary blindness in these games and can spell doom quicker than an Alpha in a Mason Network.

As for my intentions and reasons for doing this, nothing is gained by saying what they are at this time. Perhaps later in the day. I understand such is frustrating, but necessary. I can say that I do very little without reason to it, and while I could have easily switched my vote over in the hopes that someone else would be lynched, but doing that would have been a bit too normal and wouldn't have gained us any suspects. On Day 1, gaining information is key.

[Saposhiente]

Perfect defense.

[Anubis Dread]

As for the risk of me being something else, that's always inherent in a game with an Alpha and a general scry result. That said, all I've been seeing is that I either have to either be Baner or Wolf when there are plenty of other roles in-between. Choosing to ignore those possibilities causes voluntary blindness in these games and can spell doom quicker than an Alpha in a Mason Network.

Okay, I am new, but this sounds like complete bull sh**.

You seem to be suggesting that you're claiming to be the Baner while being a Villager, or Seer or other role. But this is ridiculous - while painting a huge target on yourself so you can be taken out by wolves instead of the actual role players is admirable and a good tactic, why would you do so on the 1st Day? The chances of someone being taken out at random is already astronomically small, and all it means is that the actual Baner will either lynch you, or come forward and get hunted or lynched.

Is there some other reason to claim Baner? I can't think of one, not a good one anyway. All it does it sow confusion and mistrust, because even if your're a town, you're lieing to every other town for no real reason.

If you're a townie, you're severely out smarting yourself. If you're a werewolf, you're desperate. Either way you're going to end up lynched at this point.

[Saposhiente]

Wolfbane is not the correct lynch. There are very advanced tactics going on here. Unfortunately, I can't explain to you without also explaining to the wolves.

[Duck999]

I'm not sure, but to me it looks like he is saying it looks like others are saying he can only be the baner or wolf. That's what that looks like he's saying to me.
saying
saying
saying

[Anubis Dread]

Wolfbane is not the correct lynch. There are very advanced tactics going on here. Unfortunately, I can't explain to you without also explaining to the wolves.

PMs are a thing .

The problem is that there's very smart people on both sides arguing for and against the lynch. I'm not one of them, but Shadow for instance is and he has a pretty good argument Wolfbane didn't really manage to persuade me to abandon. That said there's enough doubt going around that I might well change my vote if Tanar wasn't the only other option. I don't get the impression Tanar is a wolf, at least with Wolfbane he has something that gives him a 50% shot or so of being one.

[Penguinator]

Tanar Aerdoth.

If Wolfbane gets confirmed as the baner, he becomes an unkillable, uncontested townie. He'll never bane anyone else, sure, but he can spend the entire game as the mouthpiece for the network.

If you want to see how deadly that can be, look at World of Darkness. (I think that's the one)

[Saposhiente]

PMs are a thing .

I don't know that you're not a wolf.

The problem is that there's very smart people on both sides arguing for and against the lynch. I'm not one of them, but Shadow for instance is and he has a pretty good argument Wolfbane didn't really manage to persuade me to abandon. That said there's enough doubt going around that I might well change my vote if Tanar wasn't the only other option. I don't get the impression Tanar is a wolf, at least with Wolfbane he has something that gives him a 50% shot or so of being one.

Shadow hasn't seen and responded to Wolfbane's defense yet. If he sees what I see he will likely move off. This is the one reasonable explanation that I mentioned.

[Internet Flea]

That said, all I've been seeing is that I either have to either be Baner or Wolf when there are plenty of other roles in-between.

Oh my gosh, you're Leeroy Jenkins aren't you. You're Leeroy Jenkins claiming Werewolf.

I'm so happy.

[Ionbound]

See, the thing is that we don't want to risk Wolfy being a baner and, therefore, important if we lynch him. And the only other alternative, currently, is Tanar. If we want to Fire Drill onto Shadow, I'd be down for it, but right now, Tanar has enough votes to make him competitive, and also doesn't seem like he might very important to town like Wolfy does.

[Anubis Dread]

Alright, one night won't hurt much. If he is a wolf, we can just scry and die him next round. It will result in a night of waste scrys when we could just lynch him now if he is a wolf, but at the same time an invincible townie is too good a prospect to pass up.

Changing back to Tana Aerdoth. Honestly if anything I think they're both towns, but at this point the only choice is between the two and Wolfbane has the bigger balls.

[Deathslayer7]

The chance of Wolfbane being a wolf is lower than 50%. I have to agree with Sapo here. He isn't the correct choice to lynch at the moment. Keywords being at the moment. We have time to lynch Wolfbane. That being said, he's not completely trust worthy yet. This could be a ploy by the wolves.

But I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Logic]

The chance of Wolfbane being a wolf is lower than 50%. I have to agree with Sapo here. He isn't the correct choice to lynch at the moment. Keywords being at the moment. We have time to lynch Wolfbane. That being said, he's not completely trust worthy yet. This could be a ploy by the wolves.

But I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I started writing his post dissenting from your odds prediction. Now I am swayed more in the other direction.

There are really only 3 possibilities to his identity: Baner, lying townie, lying wolf. Lying is more likely than the actual baner. And who benefits more from a baner outing? Wolves. What does a baner gain by outing himself? Not much, other than potentially diverting the attention of the wolves for a little bit. What does a townie gain by "outing" himself as the baner? A tad more than the actual baner outing himself. What do the wolves gain by "outing" the baner? A division of the town on the identity of the "baner."

That said, I think I must reassess my vote.