Middle Earth WW: The Two Towers

[Maleceptor]

I've a bit of downtime at the moment, so I've just got to say xihirli is probably getting my vote, As. Yes he could be a villager. However that could also be what he's hoping for. I even suspect him more because luizeu voted for him D1 and they had a banter. I recall that wolves point at each other for distancing purposes.

Albeit mythaos is acting lynch crazed which is never a good thing. Is there a role who has to get a villager killed in order to win? Say an executioner?

I'll also throw some random thoughts out there:
1: if one of the wolves mixed in claiming to have been contacted by Luizeu, then my money is on Ramsus.

2: I'm not so sure about sprig anymore. And am indifferent to Matthew and Zar.

3: I was promised two towers. I leave, Check in later and we only have one tower?! Riot.

[Logic]

Night 2 has ended

Pelican, who is better known as Legolas, of the Masons has been struck down in the night.

Day 3 Begins

[Ramsus]

Oh come on! This was Pelican's first game right? Wolves couldn't have waited for night four at least? Not cool.

[Pelican]

Dang that's too bad. Go village!

[Legato Endless]

Yeah, that wasn't very classy.

Good tactic, bad strategy.

Credit where it's due though, sniping a mason is a counter swing after the loss of the alpha.

[Murska]

I am starting to think the wolves are picking kill targets using some measure of randomness to thwart analysis. That, or they scried Pelican, but Rain Dragon was also not really a prominent kill.

Well, we should be looking into the AvatarVecna wagon, in my opinion.

Legato Endless had the starters of a counterwagon just before the votes poured in on AvatarVecna, but for some reason that didn't spark off. In addition, he voted for AV.

[Ramsus]

Anyone want to make a list of who voted for who in the last day? I'm a little too busy to go back and check for myself right now.

I will say I don't think Legato would have picked a brand new person to die so early any more than I would have, so I think that's barking up the wrong tree.

[Elenna]

FoS on Legato Endless, but I want to look at some other options.

Xihirli, what did you think Luizeu was doing differently from the MatA game?

- - - Updated - - -

Ninjad by Ramsus.
I don't know Legato's play style well enough to comment.

Legato made a vote list yesterday, but he missed at least one vote, so if someone could go back and double-check that, it would be great. I can't do it now because I'm on a tablet. Also, there was a lot of vote switching going on, which should probably be noted somehow.

[Legato Endless]

Anyone want to make a list of who voted for who in the last day? I'm a little too busy to go back and check for myself right now.

Avatar Vecna: TFT, Legato, Thematthew, Luizeu, Xihirli, Rhamsus

Luizeu: Murska, Fleeing Coward, Elenna ,Avatar Vecna, Indarra, Pelican

Legato: Sprig, Maleceptor

Thematthew: Mythaos, Zar Peter

Elenna: Sangenkai

FC: Lex

Murska: Visor

This was my count with Thematthew's correction. A fuller vote analysis of the day may follow when I have time.

I am starting to think the wolves are picking kill targets using some measure of randomness to thwart analysis. That, or they scried Pelican, but Rain Dragon was also not really a prominent kill.

There's rather more possibilities than that. Pelican made some fairly strong postings, so he might have simply been killed for showing threat potential. Or he was barking up the right trees. Additionally, he was a mason. There's no knowing the wolves didn't just make an educated snipe based on thread interaction.

Well, we should be looking into the AvatarVecna wagon, in my opinion.

There was a lot of activity last phase. But that's not a terrible start.

Legato Endless had the starters of a counterwagon just before the votes poured in on AvatarVecna, but for some reason that didn't spark off. In addition, he voted for AV.

A lot of people voted for AV. My counter wagon didn't take off? It being based off nothing but the willies might be a part of it. Assuming Sprig wasn't wishing for something else, as he's liable. Moreover, there's no way I would shoot randomly if I were a wolf, I'd be power role hunting, or failing that, trying to preserve ambiguities.

What I absolutely wouldn't be doing is killing a newcomer to our community. I have a very strict codified meta when it comes to lynches and night kills in the early game. I don't take out players with reps without very good reason, and I don't kill neophytes or immigrants on their first game. It's a bad policy for player retention, and it's rather less fun never getting any new blood.

I complain about this when it does happen pretty often. So while it's vaguely possible for the paranoid I'm some unknown third party not listed in the Opening, it's pretty unlikely I'm a wolf here.

[Murska]

I doubt it. The wolves are hunting for the Seer and Baner, not Masons, at this point - if they think someone is a Mason that's a reason to not kill them. And Pelican really didn't scream Seer to me. But well, there's no point in speculating.

Assuming Luizeu picked the wolves, like in the last game, anyone have any ideas whom he might've chosen? I'd take a look at the wolf team in Murder at the Academy and keep that in the back of my head while going over any suspicions, myself.

None of the wagons yesterday were based on anything solid. Yours was just as viable as AvatarVecna's before the two contenders were chosen. As for meta, I don't really ever put weight on what people say they do or don't do in any games. Like, I guess I would find it unlikely that Lex would kill a first-timer on the first day, but I'm not going to assume someone is or isn't part of a wolf team because of a new player or an old player getting killed on the second or third night. Wolves make decisions together, and pretty much all meta that players themselves are aware of is entirely misleading.

[Elenna]

@Legato: Okay, that decreases my suspicion, but it's still possible that other wolves insisted on killing Pelican for some reason. Or maybe someone can redirect kills?

@Murska: Wait, wasn't the wolf team in MatA picked randomly?

IIRC the votes for Legato were based on Sprig saying he had a hunch. The wagon on AV was based on quickly jumping on the Thematthew wagon with poor reasoning. I wouldn't say Legato's wagon was just as solid.

[Ramsus]

Hmm. Well I'll vote for Xihirli for now. He actually said he wants to be lynched early (although he might have been being sarcastic). And of the bunch that voted for Vecna I feel everyone except for he and TFT aren't very likely wolves. I don't think I've seen TFT for a bit so of the two, I'll go with Xihirli. Also if Luizeu did pick the team then I actually wouldn't be surprised if he thought other people would think it unlikely for him and Xihirli to be on two wolf teams together in a row. And Xihirli's weirdly specific comments about that actually just makes me think that for some reason he'd put prior thought into that and it was a preconstructed argument he knew he'd have to use.

[Murska]

@Murska: Wait, wasn't the wolf team in MatA picked randomly?

IIRC the votes for Legato were based on Sprig saying he had a hunch. The wagon on AV was based on quickly jumping on the Thematthew wagon with poor reasoning. I wouldn't say Legato's wagon was just as solid.

It was, but I think this game has Alpha pick the team. At least the previous game of the series did.

If we're assuming that the main impetus for non-Luizeu wagons was a wolf attempt to save him, which seems reasonably likely, then Legato would've been just as good as AvatarVecna for them, except if they didn't want to kill Legato. I'm not saying this is entirely mechanically proven or anything, but I feel it's worth considering. (And why do people think bandwagoning implies wolves anyway. It never does.)

[Maleceptor]

Xihirli as he had the most communication with luizeu, And I just have a bad feeling about him.

[Mythaos]

Well, I just get a gold star for noticing things this game. Eesh. Among the other things that slipped by me was that Luizeu sent me that PM too. So, um. I, uh, should spend more time reading before I post. Now's just a check-in for me, but I'll be back in a couple of hours.

[Visor]

Xihirli as he had the most communication with luizeu, And I just have a bad feeling about him.

maleceptor

that just makes him more likely to be town

[Elenna]

It was, but I think this game has Alpha pick the team. At least the previous game of the series did.

If we're assuming that the main impetus for non-Luizeu wagons was a wolf attempt to save him, which seems reasonably likely, then Legato would've been just as good as AvatarVecna for them, except if they didn't want to kill Legato. I'm not saying this is entirely mechanically proven or anything, but I feel it's worth considering. (And why do people think bandwagoning implies wolves anyway. It never does.)

Oh, the last game in this series. I was thinking of the last completed game. Right, that makes much more sense.
I see your point, but the AvatarVecna wagon was still better for wolves because more non-wolves were apparently willing to jump on it.

Also, I'm nearly certain there was at least one wolf on the Luizeu wagon. It would be too obvious if none of the wolves voted to kill him. And if the Alpha just chooses the team, then he's no more valuable than any other wolf now. Wolf sacrifices to make another wolf look better happen a lot.

Xihirli as he had the most communication with luizeu, And I just have a bad feeling about him.

Wait, Xihirli was in communication with Luizeu? Did I miss something?

[Maleceptor]

I found a wifi spot yay!

Wait, Xihirli was in communication with Luizeu? Did I miss something?

Communication was probably a bad word to use, I meant how luizeu and Xihirli where very vocal with eachother D1 and how luizeu voted against Xihirli D1 when sprig was being bandwagoned. D2 luizeu and Xihirli didn't really talk to each other besides Xihirli trying to save luizeu. It just seems to me wolves pointing at each other early so they can distance each other.

Side note: Logic you confused me when I was writing this, looking back at D2 you ended it by saying Day one had ended.

[Visor]

Maleceptor

your reasoning seems pretty poor to me

D2 luizeu and Xihirli didn't really talk to each other besides Xihirli trying to save luizeu. It just seems to me wolves pointing at each other early so they can distance each other.

this in particular seems pretty stupid. They were trying to distance each other, then one of them tried to save the other?

Seems like you're setting them up for a mislynch.

[Maleceptor]

Maleceptor

your reasoning seems pretty poor to me



this in particular seems pretty stupid. They were trying to distance each other, then one of them tried to save the other?

Seems like you're setting them up for a mislynch.

Let me try to explain my reasoning a bit better.

Wolves vote each other when it wouldn't matter (luizeu voting for Xihirli D1) they start a dialog with each other leading us to believe they don't agree with each other (arguing about lynch or no lynch D1)

D2 big bad wolf has a bandwagon going against him, Xihirli defends him by helping the bandwagon against vecna. Big bad is lynched. And Xihirli is now a suspect. He defends himself by quoting luizeu arguing with him / voting him.

That's just my reasoning. Maybe I'm grasping at straws or absolutely insane. But the moment you start doubting yourself in a game like werewolf is when you lose.

[Xihirli]

Maleceptor

your reasoning seems pretty poor to me



this in particular seems pretty stupid. They were trying to distance each other, then one of them tried to save the other?

Seems like you're setting them up for a mislynch.

That's right. Luizeu distracted us from a Sprig bandwagon.
Okay, kill me today. I think I have a plan that can make this work:

I die, so you know that I'm town and my readings aren't a wolf trying to deflect suspicion. I don't have any power roles, so it's not much of a loss.

Luizeu was doing a few things different, apparently. He may have picked up my trick from MatA of forming a network. If he did, then no one in the network was actually a wolf, because if he were killed then they would suspect that group the most. He would have told that group who he trusted and not mentioned any of the known wolves, maybe mentioning one of them as a "maybe." Luizeu knows himself to be an amateur and asked for ThePhantom to lead us when we were wolves together last game. He would likely have taken at least one veteran to take the lead, most likely an active veteran who wasn't ThePhantom, since he didn't actually lead last time. I'm not going to say it was Murska, because that immediately jumps into the "they'll lynch him right away for sure" WIFOM territory. Most of the people on the meta discussion "let's not lynch Murska" would then probably not be wolves. I agree with Murska's reading of Legato and with someone's mention of Sprig. Those two are on top of my list.
Now kill me and see that I'm not lying.

Xihirli.

[Thematthew]

So self martyring aside, who do you actually think is a good suspect?

[Indarra]

He said Sprig, Legato, and a Veteran. It was kind of convoluted, mixed up, and all over the place, but the suspicions were there.

[Ramsus]

@Xihirli: You know that "trick" didn't actually accomplish anything right? And since thematthew was the one who initially contacted Luizeu that means nobody was copying you.
Also every time you self-vote, it just makes me and probably others care less and less about voting for you which in turn makes it harder to get any useful information out of your lynches. So in no way are you actually helping town.

[Xihirli]

@Xihirli: You know that "trick" didn't actually accomplish anything right? And since thematthew was the one who initially contacted Luizeu that means nobody was copying you.
Also every time you self-vote, it just makes me and probably others care less and less about voting for you which in turn makes it harder to get any useful information out of your lynches. So in no way are you actually helping town.

That hurt my feelings more than it had to.

Edit: THANK you, Elenna, for sparing my feelings. No, you don't know I'm right, but you know I'm not intentionally misleading you, and apparently I get suspicion for being close to Luizeu, so it should grant me authority as well as long as I'm not misleading us. Also, Luizeu contacted more people than just Thematthew.

[Elenna]

Problem is, knowing that you're not lying doesn't actually mean your suspicions are correct.

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@Xihirli: You know that "trick" didn't actually accomplish anything right?

Well, it's hard to tell, but in Phantom of the Opera FC (as a wolf faking seer) got at least a few people to believe him by contacting them before the real seer did. So it might have helped.
Also, I recall someone made the argument that Xihirli probably wasn't a wolf because he contacted Tolomei (who didn't give Xihirli his role) and then Tolomei immediately died.

[Thematthew]

I made that argument, and to be fair I was rightish. It wasn't the wolves who killed him, because that would have been counterproductive to their plans.

[Ramsus]

I wasn't saying his claim didn't do anything, though taking credit for that as an original move would be silly. I was saying the fake network where nobody actually shared any information aside from "yeah, we don't currently plan to kill Xihirli" didn't really work and isn't at all similar to the current situation.

[Zar Peter]

Hmmm... I don't know, I have no real lead here. Maybe... the only two who pointed at the same person two days in a row where Lex-Kat, who pointed at FC and Visor, who pointed at Murska. I don't really want to lead a lynch against Lex-Kat because... well, there are reasons but I didn't find much helpful from Visor. Nice posts, a bunch, but not really telling.I point at Visor, like he mentioned it day 1

murska on a hunch

[Murska]

I'm personally just sort of waiting on Visor. It's like, he constantly seems on the cusp of actually getting something done, but then falls short. Every post is a barb to prod others into reacting and maybe revealing something, but then he doesn't follow up on anything. It's disappointing, thus far.