Middle Earth WW: The Two Towers

[Visor]

If you're not up to it, that's fine. Nobody can be full go ahead all the time. It just made me feel odd how you kept prodding things almost as if you're about to drive in blasting Motörhead and charging the plasma cannons and then just not quite pushing on with it after all.

I didn't really feel like I was doing a lot this game in the first place?

I had a bit of fun with FC early on, and pushed you a bit I guess but that's about it.

I still want to lynch you fwiw, I just can't be bothered to push the argument. Though engaging in conversation is easy enough.

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I was asleep when the whole luzieu thing happened and I feel pretty out of the loop.

Its about that time when I sense my pending mislynch simply because I wasn't around, I'd rather head that off at the front.

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I will note my continued insistence that Xihir is probably innocent. It amazes me that you aren't pushing the same line Murska.

"I recall that wolves point at each other for distancing purposes."

the reasoning of this is surely just not right.

My money is 100% on Xihir flipping town, you flipping mafia, but you'll get away with it.

I dunno if I could scramble up enough people to lynch you.

[Murska]

That's good. I like that. Count Visor as Town in my book.

Anyway, the reason I'm not trying to stop the Xihirli lynch despite the fact that I don't really believe he's a wolf is because every time I think about doing so, I recall that he's the guy who'd literally claim wolf as a villager for no reason whatsoever. I can't read that. It's a case of 'it's probably better for Town to just clear this up now rather than have it drag us off the road later'.

[Visor]

Well I've claimed wolf as villager for funsies, but thats D1.

Its also a different scenario.

And how am I suddenly town???

[ThePhantom]

Thematthew, for being very quiet. Yes, I know that applies to me as well.

Erik walks through the plains of Rohan, eyes open for possible trouble and remaining quiet as he goes.

[Xihirli]

That's good. I like that. Count Visor as Town in my book.

Anyway, the reason I'm not trying to stop the Xihirli lynch despite the fact that I don't really believe he's a wolf is because every time I think about doing so, I recall that he's the guy who'd literally claim wolf as a villager for no reason whatsoever. I can't read that. It's a case of 'it's probably better for Town to just clear this up now rather than have it drag us off the road later'.

Claimed DEVIL. Claimed DEVIL as villager.

[Elenna]

Logic, are the days just going to start and end at noon now?

Well, we have the following vote list from yesterday:

Avatar Vecna: TFT, Legato, Thematthew, Luizeu, Xihirli, Rhamsus

Luizeu: Murska, Fleeing Coward, Elenna ,Avatar Vecna, Indarra, Pelican

Legato: Sprig, Maleceptor

Thematthew: Mythaos, Zar Peter

Elenna: Sangenkai

FC: Lex

Murska: Visor

Obviously this leaves out a lot of factors like when people voted and what reasons they gave, but it's a nice summary.

The AV wagon is probably a good place to look, although I wouldn't expect more than one or two wolves there. Of those people, we've had enough corroboration of the PM thing that it's almost certainly not a huge wolf conspiracy. There could still be a wolf hiding in there somewhere, but I'll give Thematthew and Ramsus the benefit of the doubt for now. I guess Xihirli could have panicked and tried to save the Alpha, but it seems rather unlikely. Looking at TFT and Legato for now.

I'm sure there's at least one wolf hiding out on the Luizeu bandwagon. We know AV, FC, and Pelican are town. I know I'm town. If I had wanted to, I could easily have switched to the AV wagon based on the fact that we'd just killed off Luizeu in MatA. Indarra suddenly switched to the Luizeu wagon near the end of the day, resulting in Luizeu getting lynched. Could be a wolf ploy to look innocent, or could just be a villager. Murska is always someone to look into.

I'm sure there are other wolves voting for other people, but the GitP forum was down when I wrote this and I don't remember most of their reasons.

I'd like to vote for ramsus

but editing old posts is hard

Reasons please?

Ok, I've been a lot busier than I expected to be, and I am dead tired right now, but I will contribute when I get up. For now, *checks that it is day* Ramsus for reasons that I'll go over when I can think straight. Yell at me if I haven't by 12 hours from now.

It hasn't quite been 12 hours, but 12 hours after your original post could be after this day ends if Logic posts precisely at noon PST. (Hopefully I'm doing the math right this time). What are your reasons for voting Ramsus?

[Mythaos]

Ok. Part of my Ramsus vote is hunch-based, but I do have some reasoning behind it. I think that his votes yesterday were bad. Early on, he started a wagon on Elenna, who I might as well be masons with at this point. He voted for Luizeu for a while, but changed to AV and got our partners lynched. That's the main force of it, and the hunch comes down to his posts not sounding town to me. His reactions to Luizeu's and Pelican's deaths especially. Though, I'll admit that that dislike probably comes from the chatroom WW I've played more than the forum WW. And his interactions with Xihirli, now that I look at that. I think a good enough case has been made for Xihirli's innocence that I can use that.

[Elenna]

Just realized that in all of that I forgot to actually vote for anyone.

TFT, mostly on a hunch to be honest.

[Thematthew]

TFT is someone I can get behind. Though I don't agree on the assumption of wolves hiding out in the Luizeu wagon, mostly since the lynches were so close and the reasons for both wagons were about as reasonable.

[Legato Endless]

Did you forget that it was a double-lynch? As in, a tie? Meaning that if not for Indarra's vote the Alpha would still be alive AND we'd be down both lovers?

You're assuming too much about something we don't know nearly enough about yet. Also, there's a massive hindsight bias obfuscating that whole analysis. Just because a wolf can push a bandwagon into advantage doesn't mean they won't still vote for a teammate, as they can't precisely see the future. A wolf in that frequent scenario can't really guarantee their teammate won't be lynched, so just never voting for a contested teammate isn't the simple avoidance you're making it out to be.

I'm sure there's at least one wolf hiding out on the Luizeu bandwagon. We know AV, FC, and Pelican are town. I know I'm town. If I had wanted to, I could easily have switched to the AV wagon based on the fact that we'd just killed off Luizeu in MatA. Indarra suddenly switched to the Luizeu wagon near the end of the day, resulting in Luizeu getting lynched. Could be a wolf ploy to look innocent, or could just be a villager. Murska is always someone to look into.

I like this.

TFT, because my vote isn't doing anything useful currently with the deadline nigh. And I'm still quite apathetic to Xihirli being killed.

[Ramsus]

@Mythaos: Did you forget the part where my voting for Elenna was a trap that was partially responsible for us winding up lynching Luizeu in the first place? I'm fairly certain if I hadn't done that he wouldn't have been a target for the lynch at all that day. Then I voted for Luizeu. That can't possibly have been a bad vote. Then I pulled off him and onto Vecna specifically because he asked me to and it would lessen the chance of someone I was pretty sure wasn't a wolf (thematthew) getting lynched. Was this a bad vote? Yeah. But anyone who voted for Vecna voted "badly", so it's actually pretty odd to make a point of that. So you're claiming I voted "badly" but two out of my three votes during that day were actually ideal. I think your logic here may be flawed.

My reaction to Luizeu's death was....making jokes. My reaction to Pelican's death was that we shouldn't kill off brand new people early in the game, so a meta reaction. The only part of either that becomes relevant is that I also think certain people share the same metagame-value and thus are less likely to be wolves.

Well my "interaction with Xihirli" is kind of vague. What about it? That I pointed out that he himself said he was fine with getting lynched early? Or that I disagree with him when he tried to compare something he did in another game to the events of this game? Or that I think he or someone else on his theoretical wolf team might be clever enough for him to claim to not be doing very specific things and in truth actually be doing them?

And yeah what's up with Visor pretending to point at me and ignoring being asked for an explanation when there's no way he wouldn't go into a three paragraph tirade about how someone must clearly under all conceivable circumstances be a wolf if they did the same to him? (I'm not saying that it makes him a wolf, I'm exaggerating how he reacts to that kind of thing.)

[Zar Peter]

Well, my Visor point wasn't really good... I point at TFT, too. I think that's the better choice than Xihirli.

[Xihirli]

I don't know why you guys think TFT is a wolf, but I guess I can go with it if my martyr thing won't work. If you need any more tellings of how Luizeu worked as a wolf last game, feel free to ask some questions.

[Indarra]

I don't really see any reason to kill TFT. I haven't seen any posts by TFT. I actually think there might be some wolves behind starting that bandwagon, though I'm not sure why I think so.
I'm rather suspicious of Thematthew for making Elenna's kind of random vote into a bandwagon, but... I think it's vote three that's suspicious and that's Legato.
Thematthew has a vote already, so I'm on his wagon.

[Ramsus]

Indarra.... what? If TFT hadn't posted the entire reasoning for why people are voting for him wouldn't make any sense.

[Zar Peter]

I point at TFT because a) he doesn't post much, b) he was on Avatar Vecnas wagon yesterday and c) I think Xihirli is not a wolf because of his posts today.

[Ramsus]

@Xihirli: Ok well it'd probably make more sense to just offer up any information on how you thought Luizeu plays than tell us to ask questions. But the obvious question is "who do you think he'd pick for a wolf team?"

[Legato Endless]

I don't really see any reason to kill TFT. I haven't seen any posts by TFT. I actually think there might be some wolves behind starting that bandwagon, though I'm not sure why I think so.

Really? That's unfortunate. Because he's been quite apologetic about his absence.

TFT isn't great, but I'm not really sold on Xihirli, which may end up being hilariously off later, but meh, that's WW.

I'm rather suspicious of Thematthew for making Elenna's kind of random vote into a bandwagon, but... I think it's vote three that's suspicious and that's Legato.

What? I was second on AV's wagon, if that's what you made. I wasn't aware numerology played a part here, unless theres some context missing there? I had nothing to do with Elenna's train.

[Thematthew]

My reasoning for TFT is that he actually started the AV counter wagon.

[Elenna]

My reason for TFT being a good person to look at is based on vote analysis and given above.

What is the reasoning behind the "third person to vote on a bandwagon is a wolf" theory, anyways? In any case, that's a pretty old theory which the wolves are also familiar with, so they never vote third, except of course when they do because WIFOM. I wouldn't put too much stock into that.

[TFT]

Good morning to you guys too!

Take a look at the people who pushed the wagon on avatar super hard, then look at the people pushing mine really hard. There is a surprising amount of overlap.

Considering it looks like that wagon was to save a wolf yesterday, this wagon should look more then a little suspicious to those of you paying attention.

Just saying.

Edit: Going to vote for thematthew in selfpreservation, plus he is on both of the weird bandwagons.

[Legato Endless]

@TFT Yes yes there is.

I'd be up for chinese fire drilling onto Indarra frankly.

Or you could post again and make me feel even less assured about lynching you.

[Elenna]

TFT, who do you suggest? There are quite a few people I'd be willing to switch to.

[TFT]

TFT, who do you suggest? There are quite a few people I'd be willing to switch to.

Thematthew is actually pinging me as suspicious at the moment. Pushed the wagon yesterday and then is trying to deflect the wagon gaining traction to me.

Then again, I was wrong on avatarvecna so I'm kind of doubting myself at the moment.

[Elenna]

Double-ninja'd! Including a response to my question.

You know what, I think I'll switch to Thematthew. He did jump on TFT very quickly. Although I'm not terribly sure of either wagon.

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Oh look, another ninja.

[Legato Endless]

Thematthew is actually pinging me as suspicious at the moment. Pushed the wagon yesterday and then is trying to deflect the wagon gaining traction to me.

Then again, I was wrong on avatarvecna so I'm kind of doubting myself at the moment.

Sure let's go with this. TFT's only suspicious activity is starting a wagon, and I'm not really feeling that the AvatarVecna wagon is the hive of scum and villainy it's being painted as. Yeah, I don't think it's all town, but I'm not feeling the hyper focus is going to prove quite as beneficial as it's been hyped. The only other thing to note is TFT's lack of activity, but that means nothing beyond TFT being busy. Wolf or town, his can range up and down the posting scale.

Thematthew

His gripes against the Alpha look okay, but on the other hand, he never actually committed much to actually ending him. Then he switched to AV's wagon, despite throwing previously mocking assertions toward the alpha making cover for wolf activity. Not great...but I dunno. Xihirli is kind of cemented now as the village madman.

[Indarra]

Indarra.... what? If TFT hadn't posted the entire reasoning for why people are voting for him wouldn't make any sense.

What? I don't know what you're trying to say.
"If TNT hadn't posted the entire reasoning for why people are voting for him..."
Did he? I never read that.
"...wouldn't make any sense."
...What wouldn't make any sense?

[Legato Endless]

Hmm, this leaves me pushing a wagon with my primary suspect. That's not precisely comforting.

[Elenna]

Indarra.... what? If TFT hadn't posted the entire reasoning for why people are voting for him wouldn't make any sense.

What? I don't know what you're trying to say.
"If TNT hadn't posted the entire reasoning for why people are voting for him..."
Did he? I never read that.
"...wouldn't make any sense."
...What wouldn't make any sense?

I think what Ramsus is trying to say is "If TFT hadn't posted, the entire reasoning for why people are voting for him wouldn't make any sense." That is, if you were correct that TFT hadn't posted, then he wouldn't have voted for AvatarVecna and there wouldn't be any logic behind voting for him. Unfortunately the sentence was missing a comma.

Current voting totals:
Legato Endless: Murska
Xihirli: Ramsus, Maleceptor, Lex-Kat, Duck999
Maleceptor: Visor
Ramsus: Mythaos
Thematthew: ThePhantom, Indarra, TFT, Elenna, Legato Endless
TFT: Thematthew, Zar Peter, Xihirli

More votes on Xihirli and Thematthew than I thought there were.

[TFT]

Honestly, none of the wagons look particularly good to me either, but thematthew looks the best to me out of the options we can conceivably get lynched before the day ends. I'm in the middle of a new job and adjusting to that but I'll try to actually get some analysis time in the next couple of days to figure things out a bit from my perspective.