Speculation On Parson's Plan B

[SteveMB]

My semi-educated guess: If he can't get a "double move" out of the dwagons by having them move the previous turn's Move at night (i.e. after Ansom takes his turn) and then having them move next turn's Move after dawn, he'll get a similar effect by moving the dwagons to a staging point next turn, unseen (and therefore unreacted to) by Ansom.

Ansom has no Lookamancers (a fact known to Jillian, and therefore now known to Team Stanley if her denial of holding anything back and Wanda's claim that she knows this to be true can be taken at face value). He's sent his flying units to bring Jillian home. In other words, he's operating nearly blind....

[jindra34]

hehehe... why not just set them down in the path of Ansom's army...

[Scientivore]

hehehe... why not just set them down in the path of Ansom's army...

Because then Ansom could soften them up with archers, carefully position his healers and choose which stacks of dwagons would get matched up against which of his best flyers and warlords and in which order. Then, he'd know if any were going to be left alive at the end of his turn, so he would know whether he needed to surround himself with his best infantry units.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think that they'll also have to deal with every adjacent stack of units if/when they attack him on the ground. So, their best bet for grabbing the Arkenpliers is probably still catching Ansom unawares at the head of the moving column (if that's where he is) instead of in the middle of his forces.

I agree with Steve that Parson might be able to use Ansom's fog of war to get nearly the same effect as a nightmove 'sploit. Except, it would only be "nearly the same" after the fact (if it works). In the meantime, it would take one day longer and add nail-biting uncertainty since the dwagons would be sitting out, potentially discoverable, during Ansom's next turn...

[Jari Kafghan]

If done right, and the use or lookamancers is key here, Parson could surgical strike the siege engines, at worst slowing Ansom's army down, at best preventing breach of the walls.

My reasoning behind this?

- I doubt heavily that sigee engines can strike air.
- this game seems of the type that would have damage types. (this is the biggest assumption, and one I would find out before making any moves)
- Ansom is kind enough to move his army in a nice column, reducing the possible number of units that can fight back when attacked from the side.

- Possible bonus - if Parson can attack and then move again, he could hit specific points with the dwagons, softening up the troops and have them well out of the way of anything dangerous before Ansom's turn.

[factotum]

This isn't really Parson's plan B--it's the second half of plan A. Being able to use the remaining move the dwagons had from the previous day would have been helpful, but the dialogue implies he believes there's a way to still do the plan even without that.

[SteveMB]

This isn't really Parson's plan B--it's the second half of plan A. Being able to use the remaining move the dwagons had from the previous day would have been helpful, but the dialogue implies he believes there's a way to still do the plan even without that.

The "Plan B" part is using Ansom's "blind" turn to stage the dwagons to a new location (somewhere close enough to where Ansom is expected to be next turn to hit him while still having enough Move left to get back to Gobwin Knob before he can counterattack, but far enough out of his path to have a good chance of remaining hidden on Ansom's next turn) as a substitute for the original "night move" idea.

Edit: The two key questions are:

1. Can Ansom's air units rejoin his column during his next turn? Ansom ordered the air units to mass at the front of the column on page 34 and had them assembled there on page 42; they had reached Jillian on page 44 (implying that they got there in one turn). This suggests that one turn is enough for the air units to return and rendevous with the column, but not enough for them to fully return to their original deployments -- if so, the column will still lack proper air cover at the end of Ansom's next turn.

2. What if Ansom finds the dwagons at the staging point during his turn, despite his limited forward intelligence? If the staging point is intelligently selected -- i.e. it's a terrain type where non-flyers can't attack flyers -- Ansom can't take the tactical initiative and launch his own attack (unless his returning air units have enough Move to divert to the staging point, another thing that can be prevented by intelligent selection of same). If Ansom's units have already mostly used up their Move, his ability to avoid the attack or redeploy to mitigate its effects will be limited at best.

[Runolfr]

Parson still means to achieve a strategic objective in "the Little Battle". The original intent was to capture Ansom, but I think he's already ruled that out. The question is what new objective he is trying to achieve with his "sploitable mechanic". Moving units at night is out of the question, but there's still something he's trying to achieve.

Also, Parson knows about Charlie's Archons (presumably because of Stanley's Lookamancers), so he doesn't think they will prevent him from achieving whatever objective he has in mind.

[Pyrian]

Perhaps the auto-attack mechanic is involved. Can he destroy enemy units by making them auto-attack a unit which they "cannot" attack due to being over a steep drop or something?

[Poppatomus]

I fear any speculation is going to be, well, no better then guessing. The clear implication is that the exploit was readily apparent from the little battle. We know almost nothing about the little battle, since we weren't allowed to see it. Just because the only fact we have about it is the division of forces doesn't necessarily mean that's the trick, or even related to the trick. (plus, when the hell in the timeline does that klog get written, we know it was written first, but posted second. it seems like he's planning for the battle, rather than reflecting on the aftermath, so who knows how the split in forces acutally played out. )

[the_tick_rules]

well parson's gonna have to try and fudge the gray area of rules. All game systems have gray areas in rules where it's not clear if you can or can't do it. the movement is out, but there are more areas for him to explore.

[Runolfr]

The clear implication is that the exploit was readily apparent from the little battle. We know almost nothing about the little battle, since we weren't allowed to see it.

Actually, I don't think the Little Battle has been fought, yet. Ansom used the end of his turn to send his flyers to protect Jillian while he stayed with his main column. I think Parson's original plan was to attack Ansom and his flyers when he went to rescue Jillian; the attack was to take place on the following turn.

Parson is now frantically trying to figure out how he can achieve an alternate objective on that turn instead from his current starting position. Since the dwagons are presumably in position to attack Ansom's flyer group around Jillian, I can only guess he intend to use the night move to reposition them for an attack on Ansom's main column. Now he has to figure out how he can carry out that attack in one turn.

[SteveMB]

Actually, I don't think the Little Battle has been fought, yet. Ansom used the end of his turn to send his flyers to protect Jillian while he stayed with his main column. I think Parson's original plan was to attack Ansom and his flyers when he went to rescue Jillian; the attack was to take place on the following turn.

Parson is now frantically trying to figure out how he can achieve an alternate objective on that turn instead from his current starting position. Since the dwagons are presumably in position to attack Ansom's flyer group around Jillian, I can only guess he intend to use the night move to reposition them for an attack on Ansom's main column. Now he has to figure out how he can carry out that attack in one turn.

Yes; that's basically my read on it -- Parson was contemplating an ambush on Ansom when he came for Jillian, and then that fell through when Ansom didn't oblige and the Archons added major unexpected strength to the flying force Ansom sent.

[Poppatomus]

On page 43 Parson says that Ansom stayed with the column. The article appears to be written after both the arrival of the angels and the conclusion of the battle where they expected to capture Jillian. Also, in the comic with the song, we see the rescue of Jillian. (High confidence)
Caveat: It is possible that's wrong, and the battle is still to happen, but everything about the battle is past tense.

In the following Klog, which we know had been written with the intention of going before that strip, it refers to "the little battle" in the future tense, ("still trying to see how to win the little battle") this keeps with the idea that the battle hasn't happened yet. But at the same time he knows the disposition of Ansom's troops and Ansom himself, but the paragraph is in ambiguous tense. This suggests that the battle is most likely about to happen, or has just started as the Klog was being written (moderate confidence)

that's why I think it has been fought.

Also, what you describe is not an exploit its a strategy. There's no special mechanic in attacking the main column and, if Parson is to be believed, neither column is weak enough to be ambushed. Seems like we just have to wait for the big reveal. (High confidence)

[Poppatomus]

Also, the question is what is the alternate objective? Simply attacking the main column isn't an objective in itself, and if the dragons-in-ambush were enough, without an exploit, to win the battle then Parson's genius is hardly needed.

It is possible that the "little battle" hasn't happened yet in the sense that Parson husbanded his forces rather than even starting the attack when he saw he couldn't reach his objective of capturing ansom, but in that case he doesn't have a reason to fight, and shouldn't have any new information that would have woke him in the middle of the night with an exploit in mind.

[SteveMB]

On page 43 Parson says that Ansom stayed with the column. The article appears to be written after both the arrival of the angels and the conclusion of the battle where they expected to capture Jillian. Also, in the comic with the song, we see the rescue of Jillian. (High confidence)

Actually, it looks to me like the original plan was scrubbed (and there wasn't yet time to attempt it yet, anyway -- it hasn't been Stanley's turn yet) after they discovered that Ansom had stayed behind and had hired the Archons. What Parson was "trying to imagine how that could have gone any worse" would be the followup planning session (after Wanda returned from arranging Jillian's "escape") where these unfortunate discoveries were made. (Hmmm... I wonder if Misty is even more skittish than usual as a result of Stanley's reaction to this bad news.)

[Poppatomus]

That theory had been raised in another thread, and I could go either way on it.

[fangthane]

I still suspect it may have something to do with the stacking bonus and the flyer attack restrictions. It does depend to an extent on just how big the stack bonus is, but the way it was mentioned seems to indicate that each unit in such a stack receives a bonus for other units up to a max of 7 other such units. So what's to stop, say, putting 15 or 20 uncroaked units (including Manpower) in a forest with a single roosted (and thus hidden from casual observation) dwagon? Here's the concept:
The opponent moves next to them with land units, Manpower declares the Dwagons as defenders and wins a bye, destroying the attacking land units because they were forced (no commander) to attack an adjacent foe, but one they couldn't have defeated due to its flyer type and the terrain.
Ansom throws a flyer into the mix, and Manpower throws away 3 units of uncroaked infantry to destroy it, by defending with 8 of the units on the "big" stack at full bonus. Multiple flyers are met by multiple stacks of weak but self-bolstering infantry. It depends on how the forced-attack mechanic and the flyers-in-forests mechanic work together, in addition to being predicated on an ability to organise "stacks within stacks" but it certainly falls into the category of a potentially exploitable mechanic.

[Runolfr]

Here's the concept:
The opponent moves next to them with land units, Manpower declares the Dwagons as defenders and wins a bye, destroying the attacking land units because they were forced (no commander) to attack an adjacent foe, but one they couldn't have defeated due to its flyer type and the terrain.

I don't think we know enough yet about the combat system to make too many guesses about how it will work. I would suspect that if a stack of units gets attacked, you can't just say "I defend with this unit"; if a stack is attacked, all units in the stack are attacked.

Consequently, if you mix flyers and gropos in a stack, a stack of enemy gropos can attack the stack. If you have a stack of only flyers, however, adjacent enemy gropos cannot initiate combat it if its in a mountain, forest, or water hex (or square, or whatever erfworlds move unit is). If the flyers attack the gropos, though, they could presumably be killed in the ensuing combat.

Of course, this is all still speculatory. Maybe Parson's next Klog entry will give us some juicy movement and combat info learned from Misty.

[fangthane]

Looks like I was on more or less the right general track but not necessarily absolutely correct - looks an interesting battle plan, and given the flyers' defensive superiority in heavy forest coupled with the plan to take specific targets (which will be near-incapable of fighting back against dwagons but which could accelerate the siege) it's not looking entirely too bad. It's nice to have had the unit-healing mechanic laid out for us as well; though it still begs the question of what constitutes a unit; presumably a single dwagon counts, but hopefully a unit of uncroaked infantry involves somewhat more than one zombie. In which case as long as a single piece of such a unit survives, presumably the entire unit regenerates at dawn, though that's not clear so it's an assumption at best.

It'll be interesting to see just how the battle pans out and whether Ansom's bright enough to re-arrange his forces to couple siege with archers or with his own flyers when he sees what's happening. Or, for that matter, whether the rules permit an ad hoc modification like that or delay his ability to make it happen. Even if he does, odds are it'll slow the march somewhat, which has to be a secondary objective for Parson.

[Runolfr]

The impression I get is that Ansom doesn't get to take his turn until Stanley's ends. That means that Ansom can't rearrange his forces to protect his siege engines from the attacking flyers.

The uncroaked warlords in Parson's attacking force apparently allow him to choose which units in a stack to attack; he gets to pick on the siege engines and ignore anything else in the stack. After the dwagons in the stack have made their attack, the stack goes back into the "safety ring". The warlords switch into a new stack of dwagons that haven't attacked yet and launch another assault: presumably they can do that because they don't actually attack, they just lend their leadership bonuses to the dwagons.

After as many dwagons have attacked as can, the entire assault force will retreat to Gobwin Knob.

[Jari Kafghan]

I have to gloat a little. I called it. *grin*

[Ultimatum479]

That you did. *applause!*

[SteveMB]

So, Parson didn't know about Ansom's lack of Lookamancers until now, but judging from his reaction it's at least as significant as I thought it would be. It remains to be seen just what improvements to his plan Parson has in mind, and whether they bear any resemblance to my speculations.

(Also, Team Stanley might have guessed it simply from the fact that Jillian was flying scouting missions before they had actual confirmation by interrogating her.)

[Dolohov]

My worry about Parson's plan is the Arkenpliers -- Ansom says they turn uncroaked to dust, right? Since Leeroy and Manpower are both uncroaked, I worry that Ansom may be able to eliminate them from the fight early on.

[Dwagon]

I'd be Parson I'd hit not only siege, but medics and scouts. Ansom's army is going to take 4 more turns to get to them, it's plenty of time to ambush and hit key units in his army.

Without Scouts, Ansom's blind
Without Medic he can't minimize losses
Without Siege he can't breach the wall as easily

Another set of key units he could decide to attack are the marbits. It seems Ansom has no other good units to go in tunnels. Makes it even harder for them to siege the city.

[Flakey]

I'd be Parson I'd hit not only siege, but medics and scouts. Ansom's army is going to take 4 more turns to get to them, it's plenty of time to ambush and hit key units in his army.

I am sure Parsons will try to kill much as he can in the attack, but its a 1 turn attack only. After that the strong flier units of Ansom, will be back at the main column, and he will be unable to do the same thing again, even if the terrain favours him all the way to the capital.

[Dwagon]

I disagree, Ansom can't send his flyers against Parson's if he doesn't know where they are. Thus, he can only defend with them. And since Parson knows where Ansom's stationing his flyers, he can decide to avoid them if he wants.

It's not simultaneous turns, or is it?

Even if it is, we know for sure bats are slow, and orly's are weak. It seems from Jillian's fight with the dwagons that gwiffons are not that good against them. From what we saw so far it leaves the Centaurs for an eventual counter-strike, if they're worth anything against dwagons.

[Flakey]

Ansoms air strike force is powerful enough to cause Parsons to abandon his first plan, especially after they got reinforced by Charlie's archons.

Yes they can only be really used defensively, but that all Ansom needs to do. Stick the fliers on overhead watch of the main group, and avoid if possible terrain more suited to the dragons, even if it means the march takes a turn or two more. Do not split up, and rely on short range bat scouting. He really doesnt need anything further than that when Stanley down to one city.

Unless Ansom, and Vinne, turn out to be stupid (which I doubt very much). This attack is a one time opertunity only, which is why Parsons keeps refering to it as the little battle.

[SteveMB]

Ansoms air strike force is powerful enough to cause Parsons to abandon his first plan, especially after they got reinforced by Charlie's archons.

There was also the bigger problem: Ansom didn't go after Jillian himself this time, thus negating the main purpose of the original ambush plan. It seems that Parson's "We can salvage this" comment refers to his initial idea of how it might be possible to effectively attack Ansom's ground column -- he had to reshuffle that plan when night movement turned out not to be an option, and is now reshuffling it again to take advantage of Ansom's lack of Lookamancers.

[Flakey]

There was also the bigger problem: Ansom didn't go after Jillian himself this time, thus negating the main purpose of the original ambush plan.

Granted

but my argument is still valid, while Ansom's airforce may not be strong enough to go offensive against Stanley's forces, it is still strong enough to get Parsons thinking of attacking the ground forces, and not the air units.

Despite the seige coming up I think I would (marginally) desire the destruction of the opposing air units compared with the catapult units, if it could be acomplished within accaptable losses. Which unfortuantely for Parsons at the moment is a couple of dragons at most.