Ansom's counterattack

[Renx]

Okay, we know that Ansom does know his stuff, so he now knows (especially with Vinny there with him) that he's been trapped.

The question remains: What will he do now? (assuming he doesn't have move to get his forest troops out of there)

1) Fort up, maybe do something similar to Ansom's 'protective circle' with his archers to protect certain units. As they're fortified (we've seen implications that this can be done), it might be costly to send even dwagons through.

2) Take his flying carpet, Vinny and as many warlords as he can and get out of Dodge fast. Maybe get some of his flying units to help or at least reposition for next turn. This would leave the forest units to be easy pickings, but again forting up might save them. Moral "live to fight another turn".

3) Hold the line. Just fort up in their current hex and hope for the best. I think we can safely say this isn't what they'll do.

4) Ender's game. Do something unexpected. What?

[SteveMB]

1) Fort up, maybe do something similar to Ansom's 'protective circle' with his archers to protect certain units. As they're fortified (we've seen implications that this can be done), it might be costly to send even dwagons through.

I think that something along these lines was Ansom's original plan, based on the assumption that he would (re)croak the enemy warlords in the center hex. Without warlords, the dwagons would auto-attack, and he could then apparently determine which units they had to deal with first (in much the same way Jillian forced the rest of the dwagon stack to waste time dealing with the orlies while she soloed the blue, but more effectively since Ansom has tougher units with him).

Now that he's discovered that the enemy warlords (and the wounded dwagons) aren't there, and will presumably be coming for him after they heal, he realizes that this isn't going to work -- with warlords, the dwagons can selectively go after him the same way they selectively went after the siege units. His expression at the end of page 66/60 gives me the impression that he has no idea how to salvage this.

[Malroth]

The way i see it Ansom has three options, all bad ones. Option 1 he uses his high move fliers (aka Jillian) to evacuate the command units from the hex. this option will essentially sacrifice his forest units, as well as leave a large portion of the column defenseless. Then Parson would be able to easily croak all the remaining forest units and all the siege, allowing the dragons to wage a completely unstoppable war of attrition since they can out manuver all of Ansoms airforce. Option 2 is to use his high move fliers as additional reinforcements to defend the hex he is in. While this gives Ansom and the forest units a fairly good chance to survive long enough to get back, he still has no air cover over the column, therefore the dragons will be able to croak all the remaining siege and a good portion of other troops and return to Gobwin Knob without any further losses. Option 3 is to have his high move air units defend the siege. This is the most dangerous option because it leaves Ansom and Vinnie exposed to the full brunt of the A and B dragons... so regardless of which option Ansom chooses, his plan and possibly the entire campaign is seriously Booped.

[Mr. Dragon]

Well, I cannot link directly to the post I made right after the post of the current strip, so I'll quote myself (soooo edonistic!). This is what I think Ansom is going to do:

Vinny(Vinnie?) uses a good deal of bats do explore the area looking for the wounded dwagons' stack (so much places they can be, after all, and it is still Ansom's turn).

The wounded dwagons are found (major moment for lolerf: "Oh hi. Is is on a lake, deceiving ur scoutz" and "Oh noes, thei fundz us"), and Jillian is dispatched at once to distribute area-wide punishment in shape of stabbity death.

Here the plot can fork: either we see that Wanda's grasp on Jillian's mind is strong, and the barbarian girl screws up the alliance turning on them (or something similar), and so the Alliance is in for a world of pain next turn, or the dwagons are fiercely pwned and the Tool is going to be really really pissed. Moreover, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Ansom and Vinny took part in the uber-pwnage of the dwagons, occasion that could provide countless plot-hooks (from the golden classic "Jillian betrays Ansom and kills Vinny in the process", to any wild speculation we could ever conjure).

Besides, just to provide some evidence that the things I've said make any sense, I cannot help but notice that if Jillian can make it to the central hex without having to cross an hex full of B-dwagons (which I kind of think it was implied in Ansom's remark concerning the fact that she and her fliers could reach the center of the Donut of Doom), with one but move more exactly the same moves she could make it to the lake, no matter where she is now (because hexes are not an opinion ).

And this because striking down those Dwagons is still the highest priority, and just trying to defend the column after having screwed up the woodsy elves and gumps it looks to me too much like throwing good money after bad.

Edit: I ninja'd my first forumer! (ObadiahtheSlim, nothing personal, it's just business) Go go go Team Mr.Dragon.

[ObadiahtheSlim]

Option D: Use the Bats to find the dwagons and then try to use Jillian and Pals to croak as many of them as possible. Perhaps even all of them.

[ShiningTed]

This isn't quite about the counterattack, but whatever is on Parson's mind (original formula: hit the siege surgically and return. New improved hot-&-spicy: get Ansom's boops in a pincer and squeeeeeeeeeeeze...) its not going to be 'waste the forest forces if Ansom & Vinny bug out'. He may as well go kill some Marbit archers. Huge stacks of gumps are clearly a threat to dragons, but there is no indication any of the rest of the battle will be fought in the forest. Leave them to watch helplessly while the rest of the siege towers burn, then withdraw laughing.

Though getting Jillian and the archons to charge that lake is a good move... but that would make Jillian the frontal assault. Ansom is keeping her in reserve - he would not risk her against 2 dozen dwagons. Love is blind...

[teratorn]

1) Fort up, maybe do something similar to Ansom's 'protective circle' with his archers to protect certain units. As they're fortified (we've seen implications that this can be done), it might be costly to send even dwagons through.

He'll need to break the megastack. Dwagons have attacks, like fire, that I assume affect everyone in the stack they attack. Big stacks may be a no-no in this circumstance. As I see it, he should stay with Vinny and the gumps, and split from the elves. Elves always get to shoot the dwagons. It's obvious the dwagons will go for him first, but this way he may save the elves.

2) Take his flying carpet, Vinny and as many warlords as he can and get out of Dodge fast. Maybe get some of his flying units to help or at least reposition for next turn. This would leave the forest units to be easy pickings, but again forting up might save them. Moral "live to fight another turn".

Parson makes it clear Ansom has no move left for that.

3) Hold the line. Just fort up in their current hex and hope for the best. I think we can safely say this isn't what they'll do.

I think that's what he'll do after calling for Jillian. Ansom will assume Stanley will come for him and will want everything he can get by his side. Jillian, the Archons him and Vinny makes 10 flying units. With the gumps that's quite a powerful stack. But I think Parson will ignore him and go for the column.

I think people are getting the wrong impression on dwagon might. Without knowing the numbers we can't assume the dwagons will have any kind of meaning to a war of attrition. I think there's at least half a million units in the column and that the dwagons are important to keep those units from going over the walls, but they won't matter much after that. After siege is done it's time for the spidews to kick arse.

[jindra34]

He'll need to break the megastack. Dwagons have attacks, like fire, that I assume affect everyone in the stack they attack. Big stacks may be a no-no in this circumstance. As I see it, he should stay with Vinny and the gumps, and split from the elves. Elves always get to shoot the dwagons. It's obvious the dwagons will go for him first, but this way he may save the elves.


Parson makes it clear Ansom has no move left for that.


I think that's what he'll do after calling for Jillian. Ansom will assume Stanley will come for him and will want everything he can get by his side. Jillian, the Archons him and Vinny makes 10 flying units. With the gumps that's quite a powerful stack. But I think Parson will ignore him and go for the column.

I think people are getting the wrong impression on dwagon might. Without knowing the numbers we can't assume the dwagons will have any kind of meaning to a war of attrition. I think there's at least half a million units in the column and that the dwagons are important to keep those units from going over the walls, but they won't matter much after that. After siege is done it's time for the spidews to kick arse.

Gumps aint gonna help... non-fliers+enemy fliers+ enemy warlords= no help from gumps. and your putting the adversary estimates way to high.

[Lamech]

Teratorn there is no way Stanley could have 20,000 troops if he has less then 200 living men. That would mean a lot of uncroaked, and then Amson could just wait for them to fall apart. Also where did you get the 20,000 for Stanley or half a million for Amson anyway?

Anyway more on topic Amson is in a lot of trouble, and he doesn't have any good options. I don't think he has the move to leave on his own. I also doubt the woodsy elves would like being left to die and might strongly object. Even if he could leave he could lose a lot of archers which he needs both to defend the against dwagons and to fight Stanley's archers at GK.

He could send Jillian to attack the dwagons, but if 19 dwagons posed a threat to all those Woodsy elves, I doubt Jillian could kill all of the dwagons. Also Parson with his near omniscience doesn't think so either. Therefore I think that sending in Jillian would risk her life which Amson won't do.

That leaves either protecting himself or the siege. I don't think protecting the siege would work well because it wasn't an option before the all the woodsy elves left the column. Even if he sends Jillian to help Amson could still lose most of it.

Finally Amson could try to protect himself. He could have Jillian's gwiffons fly her and some other warlords in plus he could send in the Archons. With those reinforcements it might be possible to keep the dwagons from stealing the Arkenpliers and capturing any warlords, while croaking several dwagons. Which might make sense from Amson's perspective, but if he does do that Parson will know what would happen with the mathamancy device. Then Parson would either attack Amson with magical support from Wanda if possible and necessary, or attack the siege if can't defeat Amson. Also the siege would be less defended than otherwise possible.

Edit: Replaced an "of" with "or" I really need to start proofing posts for grammar.

[ChowGuy]

Parson makes it clear Ansom has no move left for that.

Parson says "he's isolated, low on move" but it's not clear whether he means Ansom personally or Ansom with his force. It's like saying "MacArther can't get through the lines to get out of Corrigedor." MacArther personally could, and did although he claimed it was only because he was directly ordered to do so ("I have come through, and I will return"). He just couldn't bring his army out with him.

[teratorn]

Teratorn there is no way Stanley could have 20,000 troops if he has less then 200 living men. That would mean a lot of uncroaked, and then Amson could just wait for them to fall apart.

Sigh, see the cast page. Men means humans, not units. Most of Stanley's units are gobwins and hobgobwins. And yes, there is an ocean of uncroaked inside the city. Ansom needs to keep the alliance, and uncroaked may last hundreds of turns for what we know.

Also where did you get the 20,000 for Stanley or half a million for Amson anyway?

Stanley's parade in the citadel shows eight huge squads. Even allowing for artistic license each squad is made to look like it has a huge number of units. There's also a huge croud outside the walls of the citadel, over an area bigger than what is seen inside the citadel. Artistic license may explain part of it but I'd think Jamie would try to make GK look weaker than it really is, not stronger. He clearly wanted to give the impression of thousands, not hundreds.

My conservative estimate based on the size of the crowd outside, the numbers in the squads, and the numbers needed in the external walls is in fact much higher. I wouldn't be surprised if GK had in the vicinity of 50,000 units. But most people here think that GK are closer to 1,000 or even 500 units only.

Ansom's force is between 12 to 25 times that of Stanley.

[Renx]

Even if he finds them, Ansom can't attack the wounded dwagon stack properly. Only Jillian and five of her Gwiffons have enough move to "reach the middle of the stack". We don't know where she stands in relation to the column, but I'm guessing the number that could reach the dwagons isn't too much above five, anyway.

Five gwiffons against 20+ dwagons? Even with warlords included, those are bad odds. (also, I love that first sentence. Gotta love erfworld names)

And before someone comments that they'll use Parson's selective-attack-then-retreat trick, the dwagon stack has warlords, too. Also, as they are able to attack the gwiffons, the dwagons would get their hitsies... think snacking on gwiffons.

[ChowGuy]

My conservative estimate based on the size of the crowd outside, the numbers in the squads, and the numbers needed in the external walls is in fact much higher. I wouldn't be surprised if GK had in the vicinity of 50,000 units. But most people here think that GK are closer to 1,000 or even 500 units only.

I'd guess in the neighborhood of 1500-2500. Wanda tells Manpower to "Start piecing together a regiment of out of Uncroaked infantry." So I'm guessing that together with the others, Stanley would have now two regiments, but due to losses they're probably understrength and made of short battalions at best. That's still enough to give an impressive looking parade, and you better believe Stanley would have everyone including the kitchen stinks lined up to show off to his new "Perfect Warlord."

Edit: typo. Wanda, not Jillian

[Mr. Dragon]

Even if he finds them, Ansom can't attack the wounded dwagon stack properly. Only Jillian and five of her Gwiffons have enough move to "reach the middle of the stack". We don't know where she stands in relation to the column, but I'm guessing the number that could reach the dwagons isn't too much above five, anyway.

Five gwiffons against 20+ dwagons? Even with warlords included, those are bad odds. (also, I love that first sentence. Gotta love erfworld names)

And before someone comments that they'll use Parson's selective-attack-then-retreat trick, the dwagon stack has warlords, too. Also, as they are able to attack the gwiffons, the dwagons would get their hitsies... think snacking on gwiffons.

True that. Unfortunately, no one on this board (ok, except from the authors ) know what is the force of the elite gwiffons plus Jillian, the one of the many but severely wounded dwagons, and the uncroaked warlords.

When Jillian is captured, we see a red dwagon pwning Jillian's griffon in one single attack (though way more might have happened off-screen, like I suspect it did during the woodsy elves + gumps strike on the 3 B dwagons). In the stack on the lake there are plenty many red dwagons. But we do not know whether the effectiveness of units' attacks depend on their health status (might well be that the more a unit is wounded, the less damage it inflicts when fighting). It might be the case that Jillian can get rid of a lot of them, or that she would be suddenly and utterly destroyed when she enters the hex. Titans know. I would simply not reject the idea.

Actually, Ansom might end up ordering Jillian to attack anyway, no matter how risky or suicidal might it sound and be. Afterall, for the Alliance it is either getting rid of (maybe not all) the dwagon, or being oh-so-pwned the next turn. I am not a native-English speaker, but I recall a saying running something like: "A good general knows how to save his troops. An outstanding one knows when to sacrifice them." On the one hand, I guess we generally agree on that Ansom looks all but an outstanding general. On the other hand, Vinny looks like he is totally worth his salt, and he might talk Ansom into ordering Jillian to attack the A dwagon stack (I would say Parson had the different A-stacks merge, so that the warlords' leadership bonuses would apply to them all).

[Strengfellow]

Also the dwagons could have been (and in my opinion would have been) placed in a defencive footing, giving them a first strike, as per a multitude of systems.

Thus denying any attacking force the advantage.

Basically Ansom is booped and he knows it.

All he has left is a retreat on Wanda's Gwifs, and even that may well not be enough to save him, what with the limited movement of said Gwifs re the movement of Dwags.

Notwithstanding him ending his turn above a large stack of archers.

Which is all I see left to him.

[Zictor]

I think I read somewhere that the Archons can teleport people.

Maybe Ansom will use them to teleport his troops away

[Gez]

I think I read somewhere that the Archons can teleport people.

It was a supposition they can teleport because of how they entered the scene. But there are no solid evidence they can teleport themselves; so teleporting other people, let alone a whole army, seems doubtful. Ansom would have simply used it to teleport all his army just below the walls of Gobwin Knob, so that his siege machines could break the walls before Stanley's next turn.

[ShiningTed]

Regarding the assumed 'rescue' by Jillian that people bring up (and is a reasonable line of thought, I hasten to add) I gotta say if only the top gwiffons have the move to get to the middle hex, you gotta assume thats right on the limit of their move - I can't imagine the top gwiffons having, u know, 10 more move than normal ones. She might be able to reach Ansom, but it doesn't follow she then has the move to get back to the protection of the line.

The Archons, on the other hand...

(And I still believe Vinny and Ansom personally have plenty of move left).

[Renx]

(And I still believe Vinny and Ansom personally have plenty of move left).

Unlikely... they don't (seem to) have any "carrying-type" units, and as they move with their peeps, even Ansom's flying carpet starts to run out of juice.

[Quarg]

I would say Jillian and her five gwiffons could hit the wounded dwagons, along with the Acrons, but it would be a gamble at best. (Assuming Vinnie has any bats that can do effective recon at the moment.)

It will be intresting to see how Ansom finishes up his turn.

[SirEdward]

There is no counter-attack.

Ansom has used up his own personal move to move to the forest troops, order them into forest formation, damage control from attacked hexes, give his final orders for marching etc. He's probably very low on move himself.

Land units, moving through heavy *anything* usually eats up movement faster than Kobayashi can dream of. They have perhaps one move left, and maybe, possibly, two tops.

Ansom does not know of the eyeamancer setup that Stanley has. Therefore he has no idea that the "B" dragons can act without a warlord present to order them to attack.

Ansom has the "receiving" hat, which means his communication with Jillian, or any ally for that matter, is deeply compromised. Only Jillian's hat can send, or else the whole "thinkagram" thing would be completely pointless to introduce into the story.

As far as I know, only a warlord commanded unit can move with any independence. Even ordering an enemy to charge into another hex required a warolord's command.

Ansom certainly doesn't have a really large group of forest units with him. The forest units are only a fraction of his army, and since his army is stretched out over many, many hexes, and somewhat evenly distributed, he was probably cutting it close killing the wounded dragons, that happened to not be there. After all, the way he saw it, by killing the warlords, those "B" dragons would just sit there until they received orders. Only now does he suspect differently.

Only until Ansom noticed that the "A" dragons weren't there, did he lose spirit. Considering the expression on Erfworld 66/60, he's coming to grips with a very grim future.

All in all, I only now wonder if Ansom gets captured or uncoakeded following this next turn.

[TheTurnipKing]

Well, Vinnie could scout for those wounded Dwagons and hit them with the few air units he has that'll reach this turn.

Of course, we don't have enough information to say whether that would be effective or just a waste of units.

[Renx]

*heh* I think this is the third time I'm posting this.

Ansom just ordered battle formation and moved inside the middle hex. He's not going to stay there, he's going to bust through a Dwagon-hex and get back to the column. Heck, he might even croak two hexes of dwagons if he's got the move (just need 2 to get back to the column as opposed to the 8 he needs to go around the dwagons).

[rubicon209]

*heh* I think this is the third time I'm posting this.

Ansom just ordered battle formation and moved inside the middle hex. He's not going to stay there, he's going to bust through a Dwagon-hex and get back to the column. Heck, he might even croak two hexes of dwagons if he's got the move (just need 2 to get back to the column as opposed to the 8 he needs to go around the dwagons).

I understand what you're saying, but I stand by my earlier assertion that Ansom simply refused to accept that he had been tricked by Stanley (not knowing that there is a new warlord on the block and all that).

Ansom's belief that Stanley is incompetant at warfare is what fueled his charge-into-the-center-hex mistake. The mention of "shrewd tricks" got Ansom to thinking that perhaps Stanley had used a Foolamancer to cloak the wounded stack of Dwagons. This sort of thinking preserved Ansom's worldview (that he could never be out-thought by the likes of Stanley) and also squared with the scouting report from Vinny.

For me, the next-to-last panel, showing a lone Ansom, with a confused expression on his face, is the clincher.

Now, I'm not saying he can't try to attack another hex of Dwagons in an effort to break through, or at least go down swingin', but I doubt that Ansome was expecting to see an empty hex, one to merely charge through on the way to attack another 'small' stack of Dwagons. If that were the case, it wouldn't show a befuddled Ansom sitting on a motionless flying carpet.

For me, it's Case Closed (and no, not the anime!).


Farrell

[Ganurath]

Perhaps he plans to use the selective combat trick of warlords to charge through and past the half-dozen dwagons at the front of the fort to get within reinforcement range of the column?

[Scientivore]

If he can do that, it won't be due to the selective targeting. The dwagons are fliers so as long as anything is in their hex, the dwagons can force them into combat.

However, it may be that a warlord-led attacker with move left can always retreat from a combat. In that case, the benefit of flying was just that non-archer non-fliers couldn't get any hits in as long as the warlords ordered the dwagons to ignore them.

[Zictor]

For the sake of the plot, I don't think Ansom is going to croak, not just now. I think he'll escape somehow.

I don't think he'll try to blast through the dwagon hexes. Remember that he killed the weakest ones, so the dwagons left are all stronger.

[tainsouvra]

(No longer relevant )

[Scientivore]

Yeah, I had second thoughts and removed that while you were quoting it.

[Grey Watcher]

Can Ansom veil units as well? We know he has no Lookamancers, but does he have any Foolamancers? If he does, his strike force might be a lot bigger than it looks, which explains his apparent cockiness.

In either case, I think his plan is to try to force his way out through the front of the fort and rejoin the column (since anything else is suicide, and, while this is probably also suicide, if it works, he isn't stranded in the woods on Stanley's turn, surrounded by dwagons).