Ansom's counterattack

[SteveMB]

Can Ansom veil units as well? We know he has no Lookamancers, but does he have any Foolamancers? If he does, his strike force might be a lot bigger than it looks, which explains his apparent cockiness.

Even if Ansom has the capability of veiling units, why would he think he needs to or that it's worth whatever the cost is? (I think it's a given that there's some significant cost for veiling units -- mucho shmuckero, reduced unit capabilities, opportunity cost of not having a caster available for something else, something -- otherwise, it would be so routine that it would surely have come up by now.) After all, it's not as if he could really conceal the presence of his forces (even if he assumes that Stanley's ability to see the battlefield is no better than his own) after hitting the wounded dwagons and warlords he was expecting to find.

[ag30476]

We know he has no Lookamancers, but does he have any Foolamancers?

Do you mean Vinnie?

[Vreejack]

Possible spoilers, if I want to give myself that much credit. But if you are reading this thread you prolly don't care.

Ansom's only option is to re-croak the three warlords this turn with whatever he's got. If he can do that then anything Stanley tries will come at an enormous cost. Vinny needs to use his remaining bats to find the dwagons--which can now only be attacked by fliers--so that Ansom can vector in some fiirepower. It would be terribly ironic if by charging into the hole he managed to step out of reach of the wounded dwagons himself, but if not then he, himself, with his arkenpliers, the archons, Jillian and five of her fastest gwiffons should be able to reach the wounded dwagons this turn. It would be a hard fight but once the warlords are re-croaked they can withdraw.

I predict, however, that for plot purposes Ansom is now out of reach of the dwagons, which means that his only serious option for destroying the warlords this turn is to give Jillian the arkenpliers. Now wouldn't that be interesting? It is impossible to speculate past that point but it would prove highly entertaining.

No, wait. If Jillian can reach him with some gwiffons, then why can't he just hop aboard a gwiffon himself? Why can't Webinar and Dora reach? Some of this is not clear.

[The_Alec]

Looking at the situation that Ansom is in I think his options are pretty limited and none of them are very good.

1) We know that the forest units are low on move and probably can’t make it back to the column by the end of the turn. However Ansom and Vinny are flying units so they probably have more move. If they abandon the forest units they could probably reach the safety of the column but at the price of sacrificing those units and likely the rest of the siege units as well.

2) They could try to exploit Stanly’s stupidity and trick him into withdrawing. If they were to destroy as many of the dwagon stacks around them as they could Stanly might panic and order a retreat. (“Oh no, I lost 10 of my super cool dwagons! It’s a disaster! Sound the retreat!”) Of course there is no guarantee that he would fall for it and Ansom’s forces would be left heavily wounded and vulnerable.

3) They could find where the wounded dwagons are and attack them with all the flying units that have enough move to reach them. However would only consist of Jillian and her 6 Gwiffins along with Ansom and Vinny with his bats. There is no guarantee that this attack would succeed as even though the dwagons are heavily wounded they would outnumber their attackers at least two to one. Such a small number of attackers simply could not take down enough dwagons in their first strike to avoid a devastating counterattack from the remainder.

[Capt'n Ironbrow]

Possible spoilers, if I want to give myself that much credit. But if you are reading this thread you prolly don't care.

Ansom's only option is to re-croak the three warlords this turn with whatever he's got. If he can do that then anything Stanley tries will come at an enormous cost. Vinny needs to use his remaining bats to find the dwagons--which can now only be attacked by fliers--so that Ansom can vector in some fiirepower. It would be terribly ironic if by charging into the hole he managed to step out of reach of the wounded dwagons himself, but if not then he, himself, with his arkenpliers, the archons, Jillian and five of her fastest gwiffons should be able to reach the wounded dwagons this turn. It would be a hard fight but once the warlords are re-croaked they can withdraw.

I predict, however, that for plot purposes Ansom is now out of reach of the dwagons, which means that his only serious option for destroying the warlords this turn is to give Jillian the arkenpliers. Now wouldn't that be interesting? It is impossible to speculate past that point but it would prove highly entertaining.

No, wait. If Jillian can reach him with some gwiffons, then why can't he just hop aboard a gwiffon himself? Why can't Webinar and Dora reach? Some of this is not clear.

heh, out of reach of the dwagons for plotpurposes? The man is right in the middle of all those dwagons and the Dwagons at the lake are all it takes to close the donut around him... out of reach? He'll be standing there 'till dawn (start of Stanley's turn) and then gets into a whole world of hurt, attacked by dwagons from all 6 sides.

[Grey Watcher]

heh, out of reach of the dwagons for plotpurposes? The man is right in the middle of all those dwagons and the Dwagons at the lake are all it takes to close the donut around him... out of reach? He'll be standing there 'till dawn (start of Stanley's turn) and then gets into a whole world of hurt, attacked by dwagons from all 6 sides.

Well, he did already burn a ton of movement this turn by maneuvering around the dragon fort instead of blasting through the front. Because we don't know the movement stats, we don't know just how low he is on move.

[Capt'n Ironbrow]

aye, he could make another push into the next hex if he has enough move, but I doubt his infantry and walking trees still have enough left.

furthermore, am I correct when I think that you can attack enemy stacks as long as you have move left (so if you have a lot of move and good prowess you can rampage through enemies untill it runs out)? It appears to be so (Ansom's recent actions). This means that Parson can possibly eliminate both Ansom and the siege equipment in the same turn. he doesn't HAVE to choose, he can do both in the same turn if he has enough remaining move. Actually, he only has to selectively target Vinny and Ansom (croak) and then move on to harrass the collumn again.

[sihnfahl]

aye, he could make another push into the next hex if he has enough move, but I doubt his infantry and walking trees still have enough left.

Not to mention it'd weaken him versus a counterattack. Him in a fight = him at lower health when all the dwagons, at full health, come down at him. Bad, bad, bad move.

furthermore, am I correct when I think that you can attack enemy stacks as long as you have move left (so if you have a lot of move and good prowess you can rampage through enemies untill it runs out)? It appears to be so (Ansom's recent actions).

If it's like any other turn-based system, as long as you can move into an enemy hex, you can attack. Of course, using your last move point to go into an enemy hex might also mean you can't retreat the way you came if you start to lose badly...

This means that Parson can possibly eliminate both Ansom and the siege equipment in the same turn. he doesn't HAVE to choose, he can do both in the same turn if he has enough remaining move. Actually, he only has to selectively target Vinny and Ansom (croak) and then move on to harrass the collumn again.

The limiting factor, of course, being how much damage the dwagons take. He might end up having to choose in the end. His new mathamancy device will tell him the likely outcome of him taking on Ansom; he'd then use those numbers to calculate the likely outcomes of hitting every bit of remaining siege. It's entirely possible that, if he can't take on 100% of the siege if he takes on Ansom, that he might say 'let Ansom stew; I need to get rid of the siege.'

[Scientivore]

This means that Parson can possibly eliminate both Ansom and the siege equipment in the same turn. he doesn't HAVE to choose, he can do both in the same turn if he has enough remaining move. Actually, he only has to selectively target Vinny and Ansom (croak) and then move on to harrass the collumn again.

Yes, as I mentioned in one of the other threads, I think that became Parson's plan many pages ago.

The first plan was Wanda's idea to grab the Arkenpliers and croak or capture Ansom (and any warlords who were with him) when he rode to Jillian's rescue. That fell through, then Parson worked out the second plan (with Misty's help) for toasting the siege. It was after that, when Wanda revealed Ansom's relatively crippled intel and C&C capabilities, that Parson said that they could "change the whole course of this battle. For almost no cost!"

Then, we learned this about the new third plan: [blank]. It became clear five pages ago that all Parson had apparently done on his own turn was the second plan. In retrospect, that should've confused me more than it did. When we found out about the empty center hex, that was the first change from the second plan. If the third plan incorporates the second, how could it be better?

How about achieving the goals of both the first and second plans? I think that would qualify for changing the whole course of the battle. The problem that I see with it is that Parson is still ignorant -- and I'm not even talking about veiling. I mean how he thinks that Ansom has "no chance of reinforcements."

Parson seems to think that Ansom can't send word to Jillian mid-turn for her to go to a specific hex. Parson (apparently) doesn't know about Charlie's Thinkagrams!

[sihnfahl]

Parson seems to think that Ansom can't send word to Jillian mid-turn for her to go to a specific hex. Parson (apparently) doesn't know about Charlie's Thinkagrams!

No, Parson probably knows.
And, as a simple argument against your thought... what sort of Chief Warlord would Ansom be if he deliberately made it so he could not command units?

[SteveMB]

Parson seems to think that Ansom can't send word to Jillian mid-turn for her to go to a specific hex. Parson (apparently) doesn't know about Charlie's Thinkagrams!

He does note that "[Ansom's] air forces mostly can't reach". He hasn't completely forgotten about them, or assumed that they can't be called to the battle site... though he may underestimate the effectiveness of the the few units that can reach. (According to Ansom, Jillian, the Archons, and the five fastest gwiffons can reach the center of the dwagon donut.)

No, Parson probably knows.
And, as a simple argument against your thought... what sort of Chief Warlord would Ansom be if he deliberately made it so he could not command units?

Even if Parson doesn't know that Ansom has access to nominally priced thinkagram services, he might have inferred that Ansom allowed himself to be cut off from contact because it was the least bad of the options Parson left him with, based on the limited information available to him.

[sihnfahl]

Even if Parson doesn't know that Ansom has access to nominally priced thinkagram services, he might have inferred that Ansom allowed himself to be cut off from contact because it was the least bad of the options Parson left him with, based on the limited information available to him.

... huh? Why would Parson infer that?

[Scientivore]

He does note that "[Ansom's] air forces mostly can't reach". He hasn't completely forgotten about them, or assumed that they can't be called to the battle site... though he may underestimate the effectiveness of the the few units that can reach. (According to Ansom, Jillian, the Archons, and the five fastest gwiffons can reach the center of the dwagon donut.)

That quote is referring to reaching the lake hex. Still, it's a good point that Parson didn't say that Ansom can't contact the ones that can reach it. He might just be counting that single squad's worth of units as "air cover" rather than as "reinforcements" per se.

... huh? Why would Parson infer that?

He knows how booped Ansom would be without siege -- that's why he's toasting them -- so it wouldn't seem strange to him if Ansom did something desperate to stop it. It might even seem even more desperate (from Parson's point of view) than it really is (from Ansom's PoV) while still looking (from Parson's PoV) like it would be a smart move (if he were in Ansom's shoes).

[sihnfahl]

He knows how booped Ansom would be without siege -- that's why he's toasting them -- so it wouldn't seem strange to him if Ansom did something desperate to stop it. It might even seem even more desperate (from Parson's point of view) than it really is (from Ansom's PoV) while still looking (from Parson's PoV) like it would be a smart move (if he were in Ansom's shoes).

Which is hardly something that could lead to a conclusion that Ansom would deliberately remove his C&C capabilities...

[Scientivore]

It could lead to the conclusion that Ansom would be willing to temporarily hamper his C&C capabilities to save the siege.

[sihnfahl]

It could lead to the conclusion that Ansom would be willing to temporarily hamper his C&C capabilities to save the siege.

If Ansom had needed Jillian and her stack's aid after his assault on the Warlords and Dwagons... how would he have called them in?

I see nothing that says Ansom would have hindered/removed his C&C capability.

[SteveMB]

If Ansom had needed Jillian and her stack's aid after his assault on the Warlords and Dwagons... how would he have called them in?

Evidently via thinkagram (with responses via hat to minimize the drain on Jetstone's treasury), as established when Jillian first wanted to head back to the column.

We don't know the details of how a thinkagram link is initiated, but presumably the Archons were able to arrange it while they were with Webinar's group and Ansom was back at the column. There's no reason we know of why it would be any harder to do so with Ansom in his present predicament location. For that matter, that may be how Ansom's people contacted Charlie in the first place.

[Scientivore]

He wouldn't and didn't hamper his C&C capability -- because he didn't need to. You know that, I know that and Ansom knows that. I'm just saying that Parson might not've known that Ansom kept that option.

Ansom left Jillian in reserve. Apparently, he expected not to need her. So, if Parson had expected Ansom to not expect to need Jillian, then he would've been right about that.

[Capt'n Ironbrow]

Postal Bats?

I do believe he has the "receiver" Hat while Jillian's group has the "sender"... So Ansom can't call on Jillian to aid him! he has no other means of communication I can think of.

[Scientivore]

He has Charlie's Thinkagrams but Parson might or might not know that. It depends on whether he exaggerated slightly to look better in front of Stanley.

[sihnfahl]

He wouldn't and didn't hamper his C&C capability -- because he didn't need to. You know that, I know that and Ansom knows that. I'm just saying that Parson might not've known that Ansom kept that option.

No evidence that Parson would come to that conclusion.

Ansom left Jillian in reserve. Apparently, he expected not to need her. So, if Parson had expected Ansom to not expect to need Jillian, then he would've been right about that.

Let's see. Run into a hex full of 19 dwagons and 3 warlords with just barely enough units to do the job, running out of move and hits to get back...
I'm thinking Ansom kept Jillian in reserve so she could come in after the fight and shield him from the counterattack. "Oh, we lost all these forces! Yeah, there's their Chief Warlord here, at low health, with an Artifact, with almost no protection at all, and I only have 20 dwagons left nearby! Call it a wrap, folks, we're going home..."

[Scientivore]

No evidence that Parson would come to that conclusion.

His claim to Stanley that Ansom had no chance of reinforcements.

Let's see. Run into a hex full of 19 dwagons and 3 warlords with just barely enough units to do the job, running out of move and hits to get back...

There's no evidence yet that Ansom knows about Stanley's Trimancer and its apparent ability to relay his orders all over the map at any time. In fact, there's evidence that he doesn't know about it: his willingness to believe in Jillian's repeated escapes and to let her go on another scouting mission, as if she could avoid detection and interception. It's possible that Ansom believed that the remaining dwagons would be stuck there without warlords to order them around.

[fractal]

It's possible that Ansom believed that the remaining dwagons would be stuck there without warlords to order them around.

That is the best explanation for his behavior, I think. Otherwise we have to assume that he didn't believe the B dragons would be a problem even after croaking the wounded A dragons. If that were the case, then he ought to have a pretty good fighting chance even against all of the dragons together (and Parson wouldn't be gloating so much).

Even so, however, that doesn't rule out the possibility of Stanley sending out another dragon-mounted warlord to direct them.

[sihnfahl]

His claim to Stanley that Ansom had no chance of reinforcements.

Overdramatization of Ansom's situation. Even if Jillian could reach, she wouldn't tip the battle in their favor against 40+ dwagons and 3 warlords. And that doesn't say that he has no or limited C&C.

There's no evidence yet that Ansom knows about Stanley's Trimancer and its apparent ability to relay his orders all over the map at any time. In fact, there's evidence that he doesn't know about it: his willingness to believe in Jillian's repeated escapes and to let her go on another scouting mission, as if she could avoid detection and interception. It's possible that Ansom believed that the remaining dwagons would be stuck there without warlords to order them around.

As to the first, we probably know it to be true. So much evidence points to that fact.
As to the possibility, not really. Units would presumably be able to move without a warlord. Now, attack specific units and -retreat-, probably can't be done without a warlord.

[BoneLord]

I don't know anything aboout strategery, but I think Ansome is about to go through the front of the Dwagon fort and try to get the boop out of there. He probably thinks that Stanly did veil his Dwagons in a cowardly attempt at hiding rather than come up with a clever plan that tricked him into a trap. He's going to attack the 6-Dwagon hex next, taking as many losses as he has to, and go straight for the column for defense. He probably will use Jillian and the air force for cover as well.

[fangthane]

I don't know anything aboout strategery, but I think Ansome is about to go through the front of the Dwagon fort and try to get the boop out of there. He probably thinks that Stanly did veil his Dwagons in a cowardly attempt at hiding rather than come up with a clever plan that tricked him into a trap. He's going to attack the 6-Dwagon hex next, taking as many losses as he has to, and go straight for the column for defense. He probably will use Jillian and the air force for cover as well.

Doubtful that he has the move for that; Parson must have done the calculations when positioning the platter. The only reason to lure a foe into a situation like that is if you know he can't reasonably escape afterward; otherwise, he might almost as well have left 7 single dwagons sitting on the road in front of the column. Once Ansom committed to the punch-through, he will have reduced his move to the extent that he's no longer capable of getting back to the column this turn. Assuming, of course, that the "Ultimate Warlord" spell actually worked.

Ansom's belief that the units were veiled appears to have been what drove him to lead a charge into the untenanted middle hex. To be honest, it's the only rational explanation I can think of unless that hex offers some sort of unheralded environmental advantage to Ansom's lot. I'd say it's fair to presume based on that, and his appearance subsequently, that at least one of the following is true:
1. Warlord stacks attacking a veiled foe force that foe to unveil and participate in an attack
2. Any attack on a hex containing veiled units forces those units to defend; Special: veiled warlord stacks may choose to avoid attacks so long as the attacking force contains no opposing warlord.
In essence, he expected that despite the bat's unmolested scouting, he'd have a fight in that centre hex. And he was shocked when he didn't get one and instead got that sinking "you've been strategically pwned" feeling.

Sihnfahl, that's precisely the advantage warlords provide; selective engagement. Ansom's presumption, based on "Stanley's" plan being transparent and susceptible to a sufficiently daring commander, was that he'd end up in the midst of a bunch of leaderless dwagons whose controller would then be forced to recall them rather than continuing the assault on the column. He'd still have enough forces to either win, or make a victory for Stanley so costly as to be prohibitive (especially after already having lost the stacks of wounded dwagons)

The column itself, though, is evidence that a stack of units can move with no warlord, so long as it's got instructions.

[ChowGuy]

though he may underestimate the effectiveness of the the few units that can reach. (According to Ansom, Jillian, the Archons, and the five fastest gwiffons can reach the center of the dwagon donut.)

Or you may severely overestimate it. Particularly of Jillian, who for all "Comabt Wombat" talk here, we have seen is not match for even a few Dwaggon. Indeed, both Ansom and she herself noted that Dwagons would be a threat to her while scoutng, and there's no reason to assume that only meant "if you encounter a couple dozen of them." As foe the Archons, there has been no xero zip nad zilch evidence presented that ther have any combat ability whatsoeve, much less the ability to tip such a battle. Mere conjecture about "Archons are a powerful unit in Game X" and "if Archons are so expensive (aumption) it can only be for their combat stats (another assumption)" do not evidence make. Parson howeverknows of the arrival of "allies," knows that the same aid was offered to Stanley, has presumably seen them, their location, and their stats via the table, and can therefore likewise be presumed to know their capabilities

Even if Parson doesn't know that Ansom has access to nominally priced thinkagram services

Irrelevant. Parson knows that Ansom "relies on hats" and could safely assume Ansom took such with him (as he did). His plan has to have taken that in account. The plan was to leave Ansom isolated and without effective reinforcements, therefore anyone who is or might have been available via the hats (or other devices) cannot be considered a credible threat. "Reinforcements" that if called cannot effect the outcome of a battle but merely become more grist for the Dwagon mill are no reinforcements at all.

Indeed Parson et al would probably be quite glad to have Jillian back in the Dungeon. Again. Don't forget that she [and] a stack of heavies and the [i]Archons[i],were all expected to be at the "rescue" site when Ansom arrived with the Arkenpliers and all the air units he had previously ordered "to the front of the column." That's more then she can bring with her now,
and they were all visible before Wanda Wanda flew out with her to set the plan in motion, yet Stanley gave the go-ahead on it.

I do believe he has the "receiver" Hat while Jillian's group has the "sender"

An unwarranted assumption. Jillian's reference to to hats being "dual use" implies that Ansom has hats that can do both. Further it implies that there is more then just one pair of hats. You assumption therefore that Ansom cannot "call out" is based on a faulty premise. Likewise the assumption that Ansom did not/would not update Webinar's equipment compliment before moving out. Parson is unlikely to have made the same false assumption, therefore is likely to have considered the possibility and actuvely decided it did not impact his plan. There is a strong tendency here, I have no idea why, to assume that Team Stanley lacks some key knowledge of Ansom's resources, but remember, they had Jillian in the Dungeon, and before dawn Wanda told her "I know you've withheld nothing. I would have croaked you if you had." The interrogation was a success. Whatever assets Jillian knew of, so does Wanda.

While that did not include the Archons' presence (they came after Jillian was captured), Jillian already knew about "Think-o-grams" at the time they mentioned it, including its cost. Likely that's common knowledge among fellow mercenaries, and those who (like Stanley) bid on their services.

As to the possibility, not really. Units would presumably be able to move without a warlord.

But not without orders. Remove the immediate presence of a warlord, and you remove the ability to receive orders. That was the purpose of Parson's snide remark "Ansom gets a puppet show." Ansom sees warlords in command, therefore Ansom has no reason to believe there is some other command mechanism. It wouldn't even matter if, as I read the "Thinkamncers can send commands to warlords" to mean, the table can in fact only send commands to leaders for relay to other units. You have previously suggested that Ansom does not know of the table, hence he should not know whether it can or not. So far as Ansom is concerned, no warlords equals no attack, and for interpreting Ansom's planning, only what he believes matters, not what we or Parson know. That's the cardinal rule, and the cardinal sin in role-play: separate character knowledge from player/observer knowledge. Given the nature of this board its surprising how often that gets overlooked.

[DavidByron]

I predict, however, that for plot purposes Ansom is now out of reach of the dwagons, which means that his only serious option for destroying the warlords this turn is to give Jillian the arkenpliers. Now wouldn't that be interesting?

Ansom will never give up the pliers any more than Stanley would give up the hammer. If Ansom could do that then he'd have given the pliers to one of the warlords he sent to attack the A dwagons. (It would be an ironic choice to give them to Vinny). Ansom's bonus as chief warlord / overlord is given even at range so there's little point in him personally taking a risk except for being the bearer of the Arkenpliers. He's not even attuned to them. If he could lend them out like a hat they'd have been no point in his going.

[Scientivore]

Overdramatization of Ansom's situation. Even if Jillian could reach, she wouldn't tip the battle in their favor against 40+ dwagons and 3 warlords. And that doesn't say that he has no or limited C&C.

It's only an overdramatization if Parson knows that Ansom can contact Jillian. That's a possibility that I've freely admitted. You're assuming your conclusion so I'm walking away from this conversation.

[Ultimatum479]

If he could lend [the Arkenpliers] out like a hat they'd have been no point in his going.

Yes, there was, as we saw: he has a very good Warlord bonus. Everyone's been careful to refer to him as the "coalition leader" or such, so he's not the Chief Warlord, and thus his bonus doesn't apply to all of his forces, only to his stack.