El Goonish ShIVe: Damn It, Dan, Stop Teasing Us!

[Rater202]

I'd like to point out that, technically speaking, Arthur already revealed the existence of magic several months ago and with what POandora just did, the cat is well and truly out of the bag.

(Also, everyone at Moperville South knows that Nanase has magical powers--they've all seen her floating in the halls. Pisses off the physics teacher something fierce. It's surprising that Mamma Kitsune hasn't gotten a call about that.)

Arthur doesn't know it yet, but he can't cover this up even if magic changed radically.

At this point, a controlled reveal by the government on the ball the whole way, with a heavy emphasis on the good that magic can do, is probably the only way to go forward without major problems.(Which is not to say that there won't be minor problems, and some a-hole in the Government might try somekind of magical registration act which... if Comic Books have tought me anything, even with the best of intentions that never ends well.)

Or, in other words, the only way forward is for Tedd to get what she wants.

[halfeye]

Naked humans with nothing but sticks and stones can still hurt each other, but if one of them goes on a rampage they'll have trouble causing a lot of harm before the others can subdue them. Today's humans with firearms can easily kill dozens in a rampage.

You are seriously underestimating the damage that can be done with big knives and big sticks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_amok

[Douglas]

Called it!

In the event of a severe change, the seers who haven't used magic absolutely will be in a position to do things. Magic itself will give them an instant infodump of everything they need to know to not only start using magic themselves but also teach it to others. I'd guess there are at least several dozen seers who haven't used magic, if not hundreds or even thousands, if the ratio is anywhere near the one between people in general who know about magic and those who don't. The chance of not having any bad people in the lot is very low, and each bad seer could form the core of a completely unpredictable bad group of magic users.

Oh, and this part too:

It just occurred to me that, if magic makes a severe change and Tedd's prediction comes true, the next change in a few months would have all of those seers that were not previously aware of magic in the meeting. The Will of Magic would be dealing with a veritable horde of seers all giving their perspectives, making the current new record of three seem tiny by comparison.

"It has gotten crowded, yes." I think Tedd's point just gained a lot more weight.

[Rater202]

And this is when Tedd starts explaining her well thought out reasons for why raising peoples magic resistance, giving out wands with defensive spells, and in general just being open about magic so that the good it can do can be done long term on a wide scale makes sense.

At this point, it's pretty obvious that Magic doing a major change is just waisting its time.

Now comes the part where deciding what the minor changes should be.

[Mechalich]

So there are around one thousand seers, but only five of them have used magic? That seems a bit strange. The next very important question is how many non-seer wizards there currently are.

It's very difficult to get any sense of how prevalent magic actually is in the EGS universe, since all examples come from the extremely stilted Moperville case. Moperville's population is probably around 50-75k based on it having two high schools. How many awakened individuals would it actually have under normal circumstances? Raven and Noah are special cases who just happen to be living there and most of the core cast got access to their powers through unusual inducements. I count Mr. Verres, Greg (he qualifies as awakened right? Just with martial arts magic or something), and I guess Nanase (who it seems like would have awakened eventually regardless). So...low end estimate, wizards are about 1 in 25000. That would put the global wizard population at somewhere between 250 and 300 thousand. Apparently the magic police are better at their jobs than it would appear given their actions in the comics (or, to shake the grimdark tree, in places like China they just kill all the wizards).

If that's true, then a severe change would still have a very substantial effect on the presence of magic in the world, since it would reduce it's prevalence by over two orders of magnitude. But it's true it wouldn't last long.

Then again, revealing the presence of magic in a world with hundreds of thousands of wizards...ugh.

[Drascin]

It seems pretty clear that 95% of those people born with the ability to be wizards have no idea they are wizards. Moperville is an extremely high magic area to a point troubleshooters from other worlds are coming in to look at it, and the cast basically knows all they do from association with Tedd. Most random wizards wouldn't happen to run into an immortal or be friends with the head of the magic FBI to give them a spellbook, so they would never even realize they have magic.

Course, with a huge pile of seers all over the globe suddenly realizing that magic exists (seeing how Seers seem to be the Artificers of magic, I'm guessing they can probably also manage spellbooks) and they can tell who can do it, this could change real quick.

[Rater202]

So there are around one thousand seers, but only five of them have used magic? That seems a bit strange. The next very important question is how many non-seer wizards there currently are.

How many seers have regular access to alien magitech with built-in, programmable enchantments it can cast or advice from the FBI's head of the Aliens, Magic, and Interdimension Crap department?

How many of them live in close proximity to multible spellcasters and know they're spellcasters and see them cast spells?

[Lamech]

So there are around one thousand seers, but only five of them have used magic? That seems a bit strange. The next very important question is how many non-seer wizards there currently are.

Well Seers can't get magic on their own. They need someone to show magic to them.

It seems pretty clear that 95% of those people born with the ability to be wizards have no idea they are wizards. Moperville is an extremely high magic area to a point troubleshooters from other worlds are coming in to look at it, and the cast basically knows all they do from association with Tedd. Most random wizards wouldn't happen to run into an immortal or be friends with the head of the magic FBI to give them a spellbook, so they would never even realize they have magic.

Course, with a huge pile of seers all over the globe suddenly realizing that magic exists (seeing how Seers seem to be the Artificers of magic, I'm guessing they can probably also manage spellbooks) and they can tell who can do it, this could change real quick.

Well, the Anime Style Martial Arts didn't come from Ted. Nanse and Susan didn't get inducted from Ted either. Susan got it from her relation to Ted's maternal grandmother partially though. Ted has certainly helped though...

Wait, I just had a thought! Ted's watches are based on alien magitech right? Not a classic spell. So I guess Seers can pick up stuff that's not spelly.

On the soon reveal: Magic takes quite a bit of work to get. It doesn't just fall into your lap. The flipside though is anyone can learn it. On the dangers of magic, the biggest danger would be insidious hard to detect magic like mind control. For straight up destruction or kill potential Scarf has a point. Mortal Toys are much more dangerous than Mortal Magic. Maybe Ted could give magic advice on what are the more problematic effects?

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Well Seers can't get magic on their own. They need someone to show magic to them.

They don't need to see someone else. The Spirit of Magic will download the new rules into their brains. At that point, 1 million individuals will be able to immediately set to work creating spell wands, spell books and teaching others how to apply those same rules. Now, some of them might agree with whatever reasons are given to keep it in the hush, but even with 5% of them disagreeing, that's still 50.000 magic teachers out there.

GW

[John Cribati]

You're over by about 3 powers of 10, there.

[Rater202]

Here's the thig though--the first purpose of Seers is to teach people the new magic system, so I have to imagine that this is gonna be part of the info dump.

suddenly getting knowledge of how to make fantastical magical items and how to help other people get magic of their own and a mandate to do so... Okay, a bunch off them will probably think they're crazy at first, but after Pandora's reveal probably not that many.

I have to imagine that a lot of people would go on and do what the Voice tells them to do.

Honestly, what are the odds that a handful of Seers are bad people who would let that go to their heads and form cults about themself as they grant fantastic powers to others? If there's over a thousand seers on earth, then at least a couple are bound to be "regular jerks" like Not-Tengu.

Not only would Magic Changing only buy Arthur a few months at most... But it would probably be the worst possible way for Magic to end up widespread.

Meanwhile, if tedd does it, it will mostly be via wands with defensive spells or spells that are harmless fun at the worst, and using those might inform the magic of the people who build power and resistance by using them.

Honestly, at this point what Tedd wanted is probably one of the best scenarios on the table.

[Lord Raziere]

one thousand seers, hm, that is the equivalent of a crowded big city school, for a sense of perspective. as for where they might be, I imagine most are concentrated in population centers. I find it unlikely that the seers are evenly distributed- there is bound to be some nations that would get more seers than others. thus more likely for some nations to gain a magic advantage whether it changes drastically or not. which could lead to problems if magic doesn't adjust to be safer.

[Frozen_Feet]

I think the big problem is just that 1000 people is too many for a long-functioning conspiracy, which is only heightened by them being spread out and not having had a reason to be loyal to each other before the change.

Arthur, being basically in on the big conspiracy, is likely aware of this and has seen mathematical models telling him how many people can possibly know before the conspiracy becomes public knowledge.

[John Cribati]

There's also the fact that once the rest of the 1000 awakened seers start doing magic, if something isn't done about the proliferation, there's gonna be another reset, in a year and a half at most, depending in how many of these seers will have internet access. And then a good 800+ will be here next time, and Tedd, Van and Arthur won't be among them.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

I think the big problem is just that 1000 people is too many for a long-functioning conspiracy, which is only heightened by them being spread out and not having had a reason to be loyal to each other before the change.

Arthur, being basically in on the big conspiracy, is likely aware of this and has seen mathematical models telling him how many people can possibly know before the conspiracy becomes public knowledge.

Three may keep a Secret, if two of them are dead.
~Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard's Almanack (1735).

(And yes, sorry about the factor of three mistake - billions means a million million in my area of the world, but I should've realised that world pop is "merely" 7000 million, not 7 billion)

GW

[mp122984]

Additionally afaik Seers don't stop being Seers no matter how many times magic changes, so the only way to stop a Seer hellbent on revealing magic after each new iteration would be through imprisonment or assasaination.
Keeping magic unavailable to the general public might still be possible by finding seers as they pop up, cutting off the bloodlines, and forcing reboots to keep one step ahead of the populace, but I suspect there are too many who would oppose that plan for it to be practical. (And it wouldn't help Arthur, who promised a quick solution that would last for decades.)

[Rater202]

Additionally afaik Seers don't stop being Seers no matter how many times magic changes, so the only way to stop a Seer hellbent on revealing magic after each new iteration would be through imprisonment or assasaination.
Keeping magic unavailable to the general public might still be possible by finding seers as they pop up, cutting off the bloodlines, and forcing reboots to keep one step ahead of the populace, but I suspect there are too many who would oppose that plan for it to be practical.

Not only is it impractical, it's needlessly evil--few decent, reasonable people are okay with mass murder or assassinating people dueto their bloodlines.

(And it wouldn't help Arthur, who promised a quick solution that would last for decades.)

...Is Edward going to get his old job back at the end of this arc?

[Grey_Wolf_c]

...Is Edward going to get his old job back at the end of this arc?

Heck, he might get a promotion, since a lot of people are going to want the metaphorical heads of everyone that pushed for the plan of forcing magic to reboot under the promise that it'd fix everything. "Spending more time with their families" may become the order of the day for them.

GW

[mp122984]

Not only is it impractical, it's needlessly evil--few decent, reasonable people are okay with mass murder or assassinating people dueto their bloodlines.

Agreed, but I couldn't find a way to word it. Thank you.

[Lord Raziere]

Heck, he might get a promotion, since a lot of people are going to want the metaphorical heads of everyone that pushed for the plan of forcing magic to reboot under the promise that it'd fix everything. "Spending more time with their families" may become the order of the day for them.

GW

and given that Edward has super exposition powers enough to turn back an alien invasion, he might just be the perfect guy to explain what has to be done for a smooth transition into a new magical world.

[Rater202]

and given that Edward has super exposition powers enough to turn back an alien invasion, he might just be the perfect guy to explain what has to be done for a smooth transition into a new magical world.

The thing I love about that panel is that his posture, with his hands in his pockets, he just looks so casual.

Meaning that this is either so easy for him that he didn't even have to put in his full effort, or else he saves the earth by talking with such regularity that it's not at all stressful forhim anymore.

I don't know which is more awesome.

[Lord Raziere]

The thing I love about that panel is that his posture, with his hands in his pockets, he just looks so casual.

Meaning that this is either so easy for him that he didn't even have to put in his full effort, or else he saves the earth by talking with such regularity that it's not at all stressful forhim anymore.

I don't know which is more awesome.

Now I'm imagining Edward Verres as The One Exposition Man.

*Boros comes to Earth*
Edward Verres: Now see this is why you should leave-
ONE EXPOSITIIIIIIIIIIIIIIOON!!!!!!!!
*Boros leaves*

Just defeating any godlike being through pure exposition alone. You cannot defeat his impeccable logic and information! You just can't, he is too reasonable and and informative to disagree with.

[Douglas]

Now I'm imagining Edward Verres as The One Exposition Man.

*Boros comes to Earth*
Edward Verres: Now see this is why you should leave-
ONE EXPOSITIIIIIIIIIIIIIIOON!!!!!!!!
*Boros leaves*

Just defeating any godlike being through pure exposition alone. You cannot defeat his impeccable logic and information! You just can't, he is too reasonable and and informative to disagree with.

"Consecutive Normal Expositions!"
"Killer Move, Serious Series: Serious Exposition!"

[Rater202]

He apparently has a spell to summon charts.

I don't know if it makes more sense for that to be "his" spell that it part of his nature or for it to be one he deliberately sought out to make his job easier.

Assuming that he's one of the wizards that get their own spells. At least once Wizards were said that they may or may not have spells of their own.

[Gez]

You're over by about 3 powers of 10, there.

Possibly a confusion between long scale and short scale. One billion long scale is one million million, or one thousand milliard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales

[Rater202]

Tedd has spent his whole life around a charismatic "Bottomless Barrel of Exposition" who is good enough at social fu to convincingly fake a stroke.

...Is, Is Tedd gonna convince Magic to only change in the ways Tedd would like it to with an argument that is both passionate and logical, thus prompting Arthur to be all like "well, if I needed any proof that you were Edward's son... Daughter... Child?"

[Calemyr]

So Arthur is not against a select committee, but doesn't want to put stock in bloodlines. Sounds properly American.

And a unanimous vote from the seers is insufficient to decide things. That's not really surprising, since Magic is used to deciding things with one or no seers around. They're purely there in an advisory role and simply spouting an opinion without a full argument is insufficient. Tedd will be well suited to make such an argument, it's one she has regularly with herself and her father. Arthur can provide logical commentary, and I get the impression that Van is simply there for emotional commentary. Maybe he'll provide more, but outside of his emotional outbursts (he's still very much a kid), the only thing we've seen about him is that he's probably Tedd's half-brother.

The fact that "factors" are in place to avoid breeding seers is interesting, especially if Van is Noriko's son. It suggests that only one child (probably the firstborn) of any valid pairing will result in a seer. Which would explain why Noriko stayed with Van: if Noriko tried to have a second child with her new mate, it would likely be the powerhouse she was looking for, giving her the apprentice she always wanted. And, yeah, I still hold to the theory that Noriko abandoned the Verres family over Tedd's seer status. We haven't seen much of her, but we have seen her obsess over Tedd's status, her stress how things have worked in her family, Raven note her desire for an apprentice, and the utter devastation her departure had on Tedd - who notes she doesn't visit at all, not even for Christmas. Noriko, at very least back then, was a absolutely a bastard for how she dropped them both like a dud nickel, even if you leave Tedd out of it. Adding Tedd into the mix only creates some consistency in it by giving her a (somewhat) understandable motivation for the choice. She may have grown up since then, but that's who she was back then.

[Rater202]

The fact that "factors" are in place to avoid breeding seers is interesting, especially if Van is Noriko's son. It suggests that only one child (probably the firstborn) of any valid pairing will result in a seer. Which would explain why Noriko stayed with Van: if Noriko tried to have a second child with her new mate, it would likely be the powerhouse she was looking for, giving her the apprentice she always wanted. And, yeah, I still hold to the theory that Noriko abandoned the Verres family over Tedd's seer status. We haven't seen much of her, but we have seen her obsess over Tedd's status, her stress how things have worked in her family, Raven note her desire for an apprentice, and the utter devastation her departure had on Tedd - who notes she doesn't visit at all, not even for Christmas. Noriko, at very least back then, was a absolutely a bastard for how she dropped them both like a dud nickel, even if you leave Tedd out of it. Adding Tedd into the mix only creates some consistency in it by giving her a (somewhat) understandable motivation for the choice. She may have grown up since then, but that's who she was back then.

Further Evidence: Mama Kitsune has, albeit in a Q&A, delcared that she has no sister and treats Tedd like, quote, a lost puppy--see her reaction to finding out that Tedd has a girlfriend.

Mamma Kitsune also has some illogical reason for wanting Nanase to become a stay at home mother instead of a carreer woman despite pushing her to succeed both academically and athletically, and Dan doesn't really seem the type to go with the Tiger-Mom sterotype.

Mamma Kitsune, per Nanase, hates Mr. Raven. Mr. Raven who encourganged Noriko's carreer to a fault and considers himself the reason why there was no chance of reconciliation between Edward and Noriko.

Conclusion: Mamma Kitsune percieves Noriko leaving as having abandoned her family for the sake of her magic carreer and is over-compensating by trying to force her children to be family first carreer never while coddling her nephew.

[Mith]

For how much Tedd buts heads with their father, I am surprised that they are letting Aurther control the dialogue here.

[Rater202]

One takes a differant tone when dealing with one's father than when dealing with the person who can give the order to take away all of your magic toysor declare your friends a risk to the masquerade.

Edward is familiar to Tedd. All Tedd really knows about Arthur is that his priorities are a lot bigger picture and a lot less helping the little guy than his father'sare.