Prediction Page, (bring your quatloos, gps, and internets, you'll need them.)

[Peelee]

So, one-way memory, I'm forced to present a rough example: Greg set up an ambush for the party based on what he knew of the party via Durkon's memories. Then the party surprised Greg with completely different tactics, which were helped by the presence of Hilgya as a wildcard.

Imagine reversing the positions. The party plans an ambush for a character confident that they have fought the character before and know their weaknesses, then the character arrives and presents different weaknesses, facilitated by a wildcard, for dramatic effect.

Ignore Sabine for a moment in this example, consider it generic.

How does Rich set up this kind of surprise for the party if having his villains be consistent took top priority?

Alternate question: What priority is consistency and what is ahead of it? Incomplete answers are fine, you don't have to list everything and you don't have to rank everything exactly.

Ok, but none of this addresses "character is explicitly shown to ve vulnerable to this specific metal, as an immutable charictaristic due to what she is as a creature".

The bet is that she will not be vulnerable to the metal she has explicitly shown to be vulnerable to. You can pontificate all you want but that doesn't change facts presented in the comic.

[Crusher]

So, one-way memory, I'm forced to present a rough example: Greg set up an ambush for the party based on what he knew of the party via Durkon's memories. Then the party surprised Greg with completely different tactics, which were helped by the presence of Hilgya as a wildcard.

Imagine reversing the positions. The party plans an ambush for a character confident that they have fought the character before and know their weaknesses, then the character arrives and presents different weaknesses, facilitated by a wildcard, for dramatic effect.

Ignore Sabine for a moment in this example, consider it generic.

How does Rich set up this kind of surprise for the party if having his villains be consistent took top priority?

Alternate question: What priority is consistency and what is ahead of it? Incomplete answers are fine, you don't have to list everything and you don't have to rank everything exactly.

I think it comes down to narrative focus. The audience has finite focus and the author can only show a finite amount of stuff, so they have to pick and choose what they spend time on, in terms of story. The protagonists thwarting the bad guys by doing something crafty using capabilities the bad guys didn't know they had, *should* happen far more often than the reverse.

Why? Developing new capabilities and such requires some degree of set-up to be narratively satisfying rather than a deus ex machina. Because the story is about the protagonists, they have WAY more "screen time", so to speak, to grow in a meaningful way. Well done antagonists often have growth, too, but not nearly to the same degree. They're on-screen less, so there's less time for them to do the growth and development, etc you need to make big changes in capacity satisfying.

[Lord Torath]

No indication that the soul splice requires like an alignment of the stars or any specific external factors that make it infeasible outside of V's specific deal.

Strip 663. Recommend a review.

Are you sure 663: Or Mention That He's Getting Too Old for This is the strip you mean here? I see nothing about soul splices at all.

[brian 333]

Consistency of characterization, even when the character is evolving, is demonstrated on every page of the comic. There will be no, "Here's a twist," type reveals in which something demonstrated in comic as true turns out later to be false. There may be mistaken beliefs, (I thought The Snarl was X, but I see Y!) but there will not be outright deceptions by The Author. So Sabine is a succubus, with all the D&D lore in her baggage, not a 'just like a D&D succubus, except...'

And while The Author has stated he is not obligated to follow the D&D rules, I have seen no examples in which he has not. I have seen many examples of posters claiming rules violations which turn out to be posters who misunderstand the rules. I have also seen examples of house ruled or homebrewed things, but these are not rules violations, they are examples of a DM doing the DM's job.

I recommend that any 'What if,' poster keep in mind that The Author is well versed in 3rd ed. D&D. He knows what kind of arrows hurt what kind of creatures, and even if he has tracked every single consumable as if Haley was his PC, he knows she can pull out one more or a quiver full at need. After all, she has those house-sized sacks of treasure on her person. Who is to say what is or isn't in them? (Oh, I know! The Author!)

[Kish]

Haley fired a cold iron and a silver arrow at Sabine. Not an adamantine arrow. One of those two arrows hurt her.

...Huh. Why was Haley saving adamantine arrows for a demon she knows? It's like saying "I'm saving these three silver arrows for a golem I know."

(Of course, one possible answer is that Haley doesn't have Knowledge: The Planes and has trouble remembering what she knew about demon weaknesses in #62. In any case I doubt very much that "Haley does/doesn't have arrows capable of hurting Sabine" will come up with or without adamantine, which makes the offered bet unwinnable unless the demonstrated weakness to either cold iron or silver resolves it right now.)

Alternate question: What priority is consistency and what is ahead of it?

Need to be more specific about "consistency." If it means, "If Rich wrote a character with red eyes at one strip and with yellow eyes in another THAT'S A CLUE" or, worse, "Rich contradicted himself by having Roy not remember Blackwing's existence so there must be something about the rift," that's clearly not a priority for Rich. If it means "Rich might be writing a shaggy dog story, trying to remember anything is a waste of time," well, I am reminded of Rich's words in book commentary about why anyone who'd been following along should know that this isn't Xykon.

I also suspect the question comes from certain assumptions about Rich's creative process which I would not agree with. If something is a major ongoing plot thread, Rich may have contradicted it before there was a plot (unless it's one of the things he's explicitly said he didn't), but he has no reason to not write with consistency, unless 1) bothering to remember his story is an effort he doesn't go to himself (no) or 2) he values being able to say, "Ha-ha, you guessed WRONG!" more than he values not having to finish the sentence with "...because I gave you a premise which was untrue and which I counted on bringing you to your faulty conclusion" (no again).

[Emberlily]

I don't think the three adamantine arrows or their absence are likely to return to the narrative (I had honestly 100% forgotten they had existed until now and I suspect that's not uncommon) but I do feel it's not unreasonable to think they could work on Sabine, theoretically. Haley could be mistaken, yes, and the joke in that comic (as well as its setup to prime audience knowledge for the weapon shop strip) does work either way, so I'm not going to say that the definitively best read is that work just because Haley thinks they would. But to me having Haley be wrong about Sabine's weakness (that is so uncommented upon that a reader who doesn't have 3.5 rulebook memorized or on hand would never know) feels like it's not the strongest read from a pure writing standpoint, and "adamantine works as a rare and expensive general purpose way to get through DR/hardness" seems like something that could fit in with the recent story's more narratively-focused "ruleset".

[brian 333]

Adamantine arrows bypass hardness by default. This would have no effect on a succubus, other than by not being one of the things to which she is specifically immune.

1D8 damage from adamantine arrows vs DR 10/ cold iron or Good is just about as good as regular arrows in the same circumstances. Except, more expensive.

[KorvinStarmast]

I'll take that bet. Sabine is a succubus and as such is affected by cold iron, not silver (adamantine was never in the running).

Three gold payable now, i assume?

I thought fiends/devils were susceptible to silvered weapons, but that might be my D&D 5e brain coming to the fore.

Are you sure 663: Or Mention That He's Getting Too Old for This is the strip you mean here? I see nothing about soul splices at all.

633. Fat Fingers.

[Tubercular Ox]

Ok

In the best possible world, we have just agreed with each other. Sabine is a succubus and a succubus is always going to have a cold iron weakness instead of an adamantine weakness, but Rich could do something crazy and give Haley the appearance of Sabine not being vulnerable to her cold iron arrows if he really, really wanted to.

The bet is that she will not be vulnerable to the metal she has explicitly shown to be vulnerable to. You can pontificate all you want but that doesn't change facts presented in the comic.

What's really interesting to me is how we are both drawn to such wildly different interpretations of the bet. You think ZhonLord is saying something about a part of Sabine's character that can't be changed, I think he is saying something about an upcoming scene in the plot that hasn't been written yet. So you think you deserve the bet early, but I think we have to wait and see if Rich does something crazy.

Yes, we could ask ZhonLord to clarify, but that doesn't really change our personalities, it just forces one of us to admit we didn't understand ZhonLord. Let's assume it's me. I could lay a bet down right now: For one Bedazzler branded rhinestone stud, I think Rich is going to arrange the plot so that Haley shoots cold iron arrows at Sabine and they do no damage. Haley will comment Sabine is no longer weak to cold iron.

Do you still want to collect your stud in advance?

I think it comes down to narrative focus. The audience has finite focus and the author can only show a finite amount of stuff, so they have to pick and choose what they spend time on, in terms of story.

Yes, this is exactly why I didn't like that example. How do you feel about Crystal coming out as a Golem? That's a big wildcard.

Imagining something similar happening to Sabine doesn't make me think, "Is it possible?" It makes me think, "Does Rich have the narrative focus for this?"

That's slippery for me because I'm not great with the 3.5 rules. There could be an obscure feat somewhere that swaps out your weakness, and that would drastically reduce the narrative focus needed to leverage Sabine into an adamantine weakness. There's already an artifact in play that could do almost anything, but there the narrative focus required is shifting away from the expectation Rich has been setting that the artifact's power is intended for some purpose other than powering up Sabine.

Despite all that, Crystal's Golem story makes me think Rich does have enough focus left to do something like this to Sabine, but it would leave little focus left over for other things in the story that I'm quietly hoping for, which is why I bet against it.

[ZhonLord]

What's really interesting to me is how we are both drawn to such wildly different interpretations of the bet. You think ZhonLord is saying something about a part of Sabine's character that can't be changed, I think he is saying something about an upcoming scene in the plot that hasn't been written yet. So you think you deserve the bet early, but I think we have to wait and see if Rich does something crazy.

Yes, we could ask ZhonLord to clarify, but that doesn't really change our personalities, it just forces one of us to admit we didn't understand ZhonLord.

My apologies to everyone for the confusion over interpretation. I tend to forget the depths of analysis this forum is capable of, and should have taken more time to phrase my bet and ensure that I wasn't creating contradictions with my own statements.

The INTENT of my bet was that Haley was going to need the adamantine arrows against Sabine, specifically because she was intending to save them for the succubus, but wasted them in Tinkertown - and the cold iron arrows she has on her person would in turn be rendered useless in some manner.

But the way I addressed it focused on Sabine's damage reduction types rather than the part I actually cared about, as did my response to Peelee pointing out that aspect of her creature traits.

[brian 333]

Crystal golem was foreshadowed by Roy golem, and was an unexpected, but in hindsight logical, development. It allowed us to see Haley moving on from her past with a finality not expressed in the conclusion of the Greysky arc.

Haley's arrows not working on Sabine when previously shown to do so is a completely different issue. She may have forgotten (again) which metal to use, or she may be out of cold iron arrows. But she will know that adamantine arrows are no better than any other arrow against Sabine. (They bypass hardness, not Damage Reduction.)

[Crusher]

Yes, this is exactly why I didn't like that example. How do you feel about Crystal coming out as a Golem? That's a big wildcard.

Yeah, I was fine with it because Rich used it as the base for an 11-strip arc that thoroughly explained how and why it happened, along with wrapping up some major unfinished business for Haley. It was excellently done.

Could something like that happen with Sabine? Sure, totally. The party has a lot of history with Sabine and Rich is certainly a good enough writer to pull off something interesting. In fact, I think its a given Sabine will have a major scene with Haley before the story is done. Rich has been clear that, in hindsight, he's unhappy with how he handled their dynamic and I'd be surprised if he didn't take a stab at ending it on a different note. I guess its not 100%, Haley already had her big thing with Crystal not *that* long ago, and I think Rich will want to work in big moments for more other folks before getting back to Haley.

Hmm. Roy is probably checked off on that list, after Blood Runs in the Family and Utterly Dwarfed Elan and Durkon are probably checked off forever, and for whatever reason I don't feel like V has anything big coming soon. So that just leaves Belkar who both *feels* like he has something coming soon plus we know he only has, what, a few days left? So, Haley/Sabine interaction will probably come after Belkar has something big happen, probably death.

Could the Haley/Sabine interaction go in an unexpected way with Sabine getting unexpected abilities from somewhere? Sure. In fact, the Giant's a good writer so I'd be surprised if it *didn't* go in an unexpected, yet compelling way. Working with the IFF or something to do with making peace with Nale's death or something. I suspect the change in Sabine will be more a change in attitude and outlook rather than a change in her innate powers, but that's just a guess.

[137beth]

Someone's probably predicted this before me, but ah well.

In page 911, Roy said "We only need a drop of blood for Resurrection." I am predicting that that line will turn out to be foreshadowing. Not for V's resurrection, but for Redcloak's.

I'm betting 5 gp, 5 sp, and 5 cp that at some point in this book, Xykon will find out about Redcloak's betrayal: either he'll realize that Redcloak gave him a fake phylactery, or he'll figure out what the ritual actually does. This will trigger

Spoiler: SoD

Show

Xykon's geas on the MitD, prompting the MitD jump out from under the umbrella, eat Redcloak, and spit out the phylactery. However, the Order will succeed in destroying Xykon's body: this could happen either right before or shortly after Redcloak's death.
(If the Order destroys Xykon's body before he figures out about Redcloak's betrayal, then he will very quickly realize that he's regrowing next to Redcloak and not in his astral fortress.)

Durkon will use some bits of Redcloak's body that get spit out with the phylactery to resurrect Redcloak, before the Order as a whole finally convinces Redcloak to agree to Thor and Loki's plan.

[brian 333]

Someone's probably predicted this before me, but ah well.

In page 911, Roy said "We only need a drop of blood for Resurrection." I am predicting that that line will turn out to be foreshadowing. Not for V's resurrection, but for Redcloak's.

I'm betting 5 gp, 5 sp, and 5 cp that at some point in this book, Xykon will find out about Redcloak's betrayal: either he'll realize that Redcloak gave him a fake phylactery, or he'll figure out what the ritual actually does. This will trigger

Spoiler: SoD

Show

Xykon's geas on the MitD, prompting the MitD jump out from under the umbrella, eat Redcloak, and spit out the phylactery. However, the Order will succeed in destroying Xykon's body: this could happen either right before or shortly after Redcloak's death.
(If the Order destroys Xykon's body before he figures out about Redcloak's betrayal, then he will very quickly realize that he's regrowing next to Redcloak and not in his astral fortress.)

Durkon will use some bits of Redcloak's body that get spit out with the phylactery to resurrect Redcloak, before the Order as a whole finally convinces Redcloak to agree to Thor and Loki's plan.

I'll take that bet!

10 quatloos that Durkon rezzing Redcloak does not happen.

100 gold that the geas fails on MitD if it is ever invoked at all.

1000 internets that MitD never eats Redcloak for any reason.

[IronCretin]

As per Thor's statement in #1147 about having to wipe the outsiders' memories to stop them from going nuts, something will happen with the modron that Redcloak summoned upon encountering the gate or the snarl.

(This didn't happen to the fiends Malack and Durkon summoned in BRitF, but perhaps this is different because it's the last gate?)

[Elanfanforlife]

I will bet two whole internets that the MitD is one of the monsters currently in the FBS section in the MitD thread.

[Precure]

I will bet three whole internets that the MitD is one of the monsters currently in the FPI section in the MitD thread.

[acrophobia]

I'll bet several dozen finely-crafted stone mugs that one of Belkar's last lines, prior to knowingly (and willingly) going to his death, will be "Take care of Mr. Scruffy for me."

[Precure]

Well, he already did it.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0781.html

[acrophobia]

Well, he already did it.

I'm talking about one of his final scenes, specifically. In 781, it was "take care of him for me, until I can come get him."

[Elanfanforlife]

I will bet three whole internets that the MitD is one of the monsters currently in the FPI section in the MitD thread.

I'll take that bet.

[FriendComputer]

Belkar takes his last breath... yeah, could be his death (which is what we expect). It could also be him refusing to take another life at the end of the series, or being unable to, giving up his homicidal ways for a life of paficism.

What am I saying... he's going to grab ahold of something bad and sacrifice himself to destroy it by becoming snarl meat.

[Metastachydium]

Belkar takes his last breath... yeah, could be his death (which is what we expect). It could also be him refusing to take another life at the end of the series, or being unable to, giving up his homicidal ways for a life of paficism.

The issue with that is all the other clues regarding his fate, for which only my Air Gnome Forced Labour Bypass accounts for in any "Belkar lives" possible world I've seen proposed so far (and the Air Gnome Forced Labour Bypass is, while entirely plausible at surface level, incredibly stupid).

What am I saying... he's going to grab ahold of something bad and sacrifice himself to destroy it by becoming snarl meat.

Annnnd I don't follow anymore. Are you saying he won't die because he'll die instead?

[Tubercular Ox]

Annnnd I don't follow anymore. Are you saying he won't die because he'll die instead?

He's saying he was exercising his prophecy-cooking skills but doesn't really believe his own results. "What am I saying!?!"

I respect his attempt to cook the prophecy, even if it's ultimately not believable because of the other prophecies.

[Metastachydium]

He's saying he was exercising his prophecy-cooking skills but doesn't really believe his own results. "What am I saying!?!"

I respect his attempt to cook the prophecy, even if it's ultimately not believable because of the other prophecies.

Ah, I see. Hey, FriendComputer, have you considered the benefits of investing a few points into Profession (gourmet chef)?

[Tubercular Ox]

Ah, I see. Hey, FriendComputer, have you considered the benefits of investing a few points into Profession (gourmet chef)?

Cook is the word my math teacher in high school taught me to use with puzzles that were solved in outlandish ways that were either not intended by the author or which the author was planning to inflict on the audience as a surprise. I'm happy to use any word you want instead.

[Sir_Norbert]

The term "cook" for an unintended solution comes from chess problems, although no-one knows why it's called a "cook".

I didn't think about this when I wrote the post, but my prediction on page 1 (the world is destroyed and Belkar floats in space for ever) actually does provide a scenario where all the Oracle's Belkar prophecies would be fulfilled without his death. After all, if the world is gone, there's no more air, no cakes and no economy.

[Metastachydium]

Cook is the word my math teacher in high school taught me to use with puzzles that were solved in outlandish ways that were either not intended by the author or which the author was planning to inflict on the audience as a surprise. I'm happy to use any word you want instead.

Nah, that was just a bad pun. I do that sometimes.

(the world is destroyed and Belkar floats in space for ever) actually does provide a scenario where all the Oracle's Belkar prophecies would be fulfilled without his death. After all, if the world is gone, there's no more air, no cakes and no economy.

I kind of think Halflings are not normally capable of surviving without food and air, though, so that's just an unlikely way Belkar could die.

[Tubercular Ox]

The term "cook" for an unintended solution comes from chess problems, although no-one knows why it's called a "cook".

I'm so happy to learn this. It's always bothered me that I'm the only one who uses this... and that I keep using it despite that. I guess I should have learned chess.

Do you think it's related to "cook the books"?

[KorvinStarmast]

I kind of think Halflings are not normally capable of surviving without food and air, though, so that's just an unlikely way Belkar could die.

But he could float in the astral plane, whose "physics" confuse me enough that I suspect that 'breathing' as such does not exist there. However, that would mean that the world blew up and thus the Order failed, which is not where I think Rich is taking the story since Elan gets a happy ending.
And the world blowing up is not an Elan happy ending.