Murder At Hogwarts

[Lex-Kat]

You're still voting for a confirmed Inner Circle member. If you're actually just a DE then you'd have no problems voting for Murska would you? He's openly admitting to been an Order member.

Except... TheMatthew pointed at me, not Murska.

[GrayDeath]

Shaking his Head the blond Professor stands up, stands taller and more powerfully than he ever did....if still not managing quite the Evilness he seems to aspire to.

Yes, let everybody choose a side. Let the cowards and the small men join the order, focussed on killing the Founder and Heart of the Death Eaters, of what it means to be one of us. Let those who think just because the Dark lord does not share his Immortality they are justified in betraying the Cause join the Order. And persh with them. I for one do not doubt we will prevail, in one form or the other. The fact that he makes this speech alone shows that Murska is as guilty of cowardice as of being a Member of the Order. I for one say lets get rid of him. And ImperatorV, I agree."
He loos the other professors in the eyes where possible, all the while playing with a greenish bottle in his Robes left Sleeve....and frowning.

A wail goes through the school that sounds suspiciously like Peeves.

"Damn it, that stupid Poltergeist again.....if we accomplish nothing else, we should get rid of him NOW. And then focus on more important matters.

[Thematthew]

Don't vote for Murska yet, trust me on Lex, it will prove all the rest of what I've been saying. You'll also note that Lex-kat specifically voted to lynch me and deputize Murska, a move which will explicitly increase the Order's power and thus ensure them winning, while Igor's response was to unhelpfully deflect and not offer any other options, a typical action to try to discredit someone without being too memorable about your actions.

Also, don't believe Murska's numbers. If you follow what he has you end up with 5 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 10 death eaters. Which gives you a slightly higher than 20% chance to lose (21.11111111111% technically), and is ludicrous to follow his options.

Also, he's lying about how many Death Eaters we've killed because we haven't been attacking anyone. Which is obvious when you note that he later pointed out:

Since the Inner Circle wants to hide Voldy in as many players as possible and all Death Eaters want to live, it is not in any of their interest to use any killing spells on anyone except the Order. Therefore, no matter what Death Eaters vote, they are not under any threat from anyone except the Order.

So which is it Murska, are we hiding the Dark Lord in as many people as possible or randomly killing people. You can't have it both ways, but we can find you with scries.

[Murska]

Don't vote for Murska yet, trust me on Lex, it will prove all the rest of what I've been saying. You'll also note that Lex-kat specifically voted to lynch me and deputize Murska, a move which will explicitly increase the Order's power and thus ensure them winning, while Igor's response was to unhelpfully deflect and not offer any other options, a typical action to try to discredit someone without being too memorable about your actions.

Also, don't believe Murska's numbers. If you follow what he has you end up with 5 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 10 death eaters. Which gives you a slightly higher than 20% chance to lose (21.11111111111% technically), and is ludicrous to follow his options.

Better than 50%.

Also, he's lying about how many Death Eaters we've killed because we haven't been attacking anyone. Which is obvious when you note that he later pointed out:

So which is it Murska, are we hiding the Dark Lord in as many people as possible or randomly killing people. You can't have it both ways, but we can find you with scries.

*shrug* It doesn't make sense for you to kill people. However, we haven't killed people, and someone has, so therefore someone is doing something that doesn't make sense. This happens pretty often in life. If it isn't you, then it's some Death Eater somewhere.

The fact that he makes this speech alone shows that Murska is as guilty of cowardice as of being a Member of the Order.

I don't see the logic.

[Thematthew]

Murska, statistics don't work that way, they have a much higher than 50% win chance by killing the remaining 3 of you. Mostly because I have been telling them the truth about what's going on, and you've been lying through your teeth to try to scrape victory from the jaws of defeat.

[Murska]

Murska, statistics don't work that way, they have a much higher than 50% win chance by killing the remaining 3 of you. Mostly because I have been telling them the truth about what's going on, and you've been lying through your teeth to try to scrape victory from the jaws of defeat.

5 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 10 death eaters

2 death eaters die every night
1 order member dies every day

-> very few death eaters left, if any

3 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 12 death eaters

1.5 death eaters die every night
1 order member dies every day

3 death eaters end up dead, assuming everything goes perfectly for them: 25% chance of loss.

Working with Order:
5 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 10 death eaters
1 Voldemort dies
1 Death Eater who is now Voldemort dies
1 Death Eater who is now Voldemort dies

2 Death Eaters end up dead, 20% chance of loss.

[Tom the Mime]

Spoiler: Story so far/players remaining

Show

Player	Role	Killed
TBFProgrammer	Charms/Potions expert Death Eater	Day 1
Duck999	Charms/Herbology expert Death Eater	Night 1
Kish	Ancient Runes expert Inner Circle	Night 1
Tanar Aeodoth	Ancient Runes/Charms expert Death Eater	Night 1
Xirhili	Divination/Herbology expert Death Eater	Night 1
Ramsus	Order Member	Day 2
Strigon	Dark arts/CoMC expert Death Eater	Night 2
ThePhantom	Ancient Runes/Divination expert Death Eater	Day 3
flatfooted	CoMC expert Order Member	Night 3
Orbital Panic	CoMC expert Inner circle	Night 3
Eggel
Elenna
Eternis
Disc Lorde
Fleeing Coward
Garraban
Generic Guy
GrayDeath
Igordragonian
ImperatorV
Lex-Kat
Murska
Duneyrr
TBFProgrammer (Qwanch)
Anonymouswizard
Sniccups
Thematthew
Black Socks
Tom the Mime

[Thematthew]

5 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 10 death eaters

2 death eaters die every night
1 order member dies every day

-> very few death eaters left, if any

3 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 12 death eaters

1.5 death eaters die every night
1 order member dies every day

3 death eaters end up dead, assuming everything goes perfectly for them: 25% chance of loss.

Working with Order:
5 order members, 3 inner circle, 1 voldemort, and 10 death eaters
1 Voldemort dies
1 Death Eater who is now Voldemort dies
1 Death Eater who is now Voldemort dies

2 Death Eaters end up dead, 20% chance of loss.

Except that it's 3 order members and 2 inner circle, stop trying to claim that a quarter of the players were order members.

[Tom the Mime]

With 30 players and a high powered game with flexible powers, a quarter being wolves doesn't seem too far off. Death eaters being semi-neutral complicates thing but it's not unbelievable.

The numbers themselves seem optimistic for the Order though. Getting 2 night kills per night while not suffering anything yourself, with people protecting themselves more actively and maintaining this with dwindling numbers doesn't seem realistic. That was even acknowledged in your version with 3 order members having fewer deaths per night but not taken into account with passing time. Murska's plan to find Voldemort reincarnations without many casualties also seems like it would need death eaters to show a crazy level of trust and assumes no spite being shown by the inner circle/voldemort.

So, yeah. My vote doesn't count for much right now but Lex-kat, thematthew. The fact that I'm pretty sure they tried to kill me the past two nights doesn't help (though if I'm right, I can fully understand why).

[Anonymouswizard]

The young professor arrives, looking worried.

'Igordragonian, would you please explain what you have been doing with the house elves missing from the kitchen? Their friends are worried that you might have used them for experiments, or even worse given them clothes. I cannot believe that people like you are allowed to teach here.'

The professor collapses in a chair. He looks like he has been running around all day without any breaks, and the observant realise that he was absent during both lunch and dinner.

'themathew sounds like a good choice, as he's the only one talking sense right now. If anybody wants my help they can come and see me in my office after this, but until then I wish to be left alone.'

EDIT: I'm convinced, Channing my vote to Lex-Kat.

[Murska]

With 30 players and a high powered game with flexible powers, a quarter being wolves doesn't seem too far off. Death eaters being semi-neutral complicates thing but it's not unbelievable.

The numbers themselves seem optimistic for the Order though. Getting 2 night kills per night while not suffering anything yourself, with people protecting themselves more actively and maintaining this with dwindling numbers doesn't seem realistic. That was even acknowledged in your version with 3 order members having fewer deaths per night but not taken into account with passing time. Murska's plan to find Voldemort reincarnations without many casualties also seems like it would need death eaters to show a crazy level of trust and assumes no spite being shown by the inner circle/voldemort.

So, yeah. My vote doesn't count for much right now but Lex-kat, thematthew. The fact that I'm pretty sure they tried to kill me the past two nights doesn't help (though if I'm right, I can fully understand why).

None of us have ever tried to kill you.

Now it's only 2 Inner Circle members? That number keeps going down for some reason.

Thing is, it doesn't matter how many people you have doing the killing, it's about the spellbooks. Since we pool our spellbooks so we don't lose them if we die, and we've got enough power boosts to cast any spell, a single Order member has just as much firepower as five of them.

[Fleeing Coward]

Too all my fellow death eaters, we need a coordinated effort to stop the order members. I suggest that we all use our night action to steal a book from Murska tonight.
They can't kill us if they don't have any books to cast with.

[Murska]

Look, now they're asking for your cooperation. 'oh look we can't win without death eaters lets ask them to back us'. What have they ever offered you?

[Tom the Mime]

"The aqueduct?"

It just sounded so much like the start of that sketch in my head.

Also, for anyone voting for one of the accused order members, focus all you votes on one of them. They've had multiple mayorships and time to build up their magic. For a safe lynch, you'd probably want at least double the number of people voting for them than the next highest candidate.

[Murska]

What's with the lack of ambition on the Death Eaters' part? Do they expect they'll be able to depose Voldy by themselves later? Or are there really people who are willing to be mere minions instead of aiming for power and respect themselves?

[Elenna]

So I'm partway through writing what will probably be a ridiculously long analysis post. But first, some unanswered questions.

thematthew, can you confirm there are two inner circle members left including you?
Also, how sure are you about Lex and igordragonian? The existance of switch spells makes me wary of scry results - I'm sure the Order has been using switch spells, they would be fools not to.

Murska, since you can only scry one person with Visions and you can only cast a spell twice a night, you're going to take some time to find Voldemort. Who were you planning on lynching if you don't find Voldie? I suspect the answer is Death Eaters. (I know, we cna lynch the inner circle, but there's apparently only two of them and it could take a while to find Voldemort.)
Also, do you know the identity of the other inner circle member?

- - - Updated - - -

Some more questions:

thematthew: Seriously, why are you still voting for Lex and not Murska? Murska's the one who might be able to find Voldie. (I'm sceptical of that, because I don't think it works if Voldie doesn't use all his books and the DE's don't cooperate with the Order, but oh well.) Lynching Murska would presumably then make your goal easier than lynching Lex would. Also, I'm more convinced of Murska being in the Order than Lex.
(Yes, I know it would be funny. It would also be strategically pretty bad.)

Murska: As far as we know, your entire "I'll scry for Voldie and not kill any Death Eaters" pitch is null and void if you die, since, well, no scry anymore. And even if all Death Eaters vote for you, the IC and Voldie (sounds like the name of a band ) will still be aiming kill spells at you, which stack while banes don't stack. Thoughts?
Whether they could kill you without Death Eater help really depends on whether you know who the other IC member is (and therefore whether you could get them lynched), I'd say. And if you do know, I don't see any reason for you to keep that information quiet?

[Fleeing Coward]

Look, now they're asking for your cooperation. 'oh look we can't win without death eaters lets ask them to back us'. What have they ever offered you?

I'm not IC or Voldemort, I just want a legitimate reason to murder you and you gave me one

[Elenna]

Actually, not doing the analysis post tonight because it's taking too long and I'm getting a headache. Short version: Murska's numbers ignore the fact that we have to lynch people so several non-Voldemort DE's would probably end up lynched. I'm also wondering how many people, exactly, the Order can kill each night.
A lot depends on how many Order members there are left and how fast the IC can find Order members versus how fast the Order can find Voldie.

[Fleeing Coward]

Just look at how many died last night.

This is a desperate last minute attempt to survive by the Order.
Lynch Lex, Rob Murska, all Kill spells on Draconian and we can basically cripple the order in 1 phase assuming thematthew got it right.

- - - Updated - - -

To all DE, we can't be scattered in out votes like this.
We do this right vote to lynch Lex and we can have minimum casualties and essentially an Order that's lost in all but name by tomorrow.

[Murska]

Murska, since you can only scry one person with Visions and you can only cast a spell twice a night, you're going to take some time to find Voldemort. Who were you planning on lynching if you don't find Voldie? I suspect the answer is Death Eaters. (I know, we cna lynch the inner circle, but there's apparently only two of them and it could take a while to find Voldemort.)
Also, do you know the identity of the other inner circle member?

I can also Tea Leaves, so four people, and everyone in the Order can also Tea Leaves and, if not bothered by other priorities, grab some ingredients and Visions each night. If we don't find Voldie, we'd lynch Inner Circle, if we had no more Inner Circle we'd lynch uncooperative Death Eaters, if we had none of those we'd lynch Order.

Murska: As far as we know, your entire "I'll scry for Voldie and not kill any Death Eaters" pitch is null and void if you die, since, well, no scry anymore. And even if all Death Eaters vote for you, the IC and Voldie (sounds like the name of a band ) will still be aiming kill spells at you, which stack while banes don't stack. Thoughts?
Whether they could kill you without Death Eater help really depends on whether you know who the other IC member is (and therefore whether you could get them lynched), I'd say. And if you do know, I don't see any reason for you to keep that information quiet?

We can all scry. Kill spells will never reach due to Switches.

Garraban is IC.

[Thematthew]

Elenna, the reason I'm voting for Lex and not Murska s that She's the more dangerous of the two. He's a Diviner, so his spell bonus is not to any kill, bane, void, or switch spells.

Murska is so desperately clinging to his plan here because I'm right. If Lex wasn't an order member he would have used that to discredit me by letting her get lynched, because that is the stronger play and he doesn't have the resources to care about the Death Eaters winning.

Lynch Lex, because Murska is proving me right now, then rob the crap out of them in the middle of the night. They will only have two people, and don't have enough kill mojo to kill more than one person with a decent magic score.

[Generic-Guy]

If we don't find Voldie, we'd lynch Inner Circle, if we had no more Inner Circle we'd lynch uncooperative Death Eaters, if we had none of those we'd lynch Order.

This sounds stupid and unbelivable.

We can all scry. Kill spells will never reach due to Switches.

Well, switching you say? Heheheee...

I resarched today in the libary how to power transfiguration-spells even over my natural limit.
I am able to cast a 'Create Cover'-Bane at full 5 power, as well as i can use 'Switching Spell' at five power.
I also got two doses of 'Acromantula venom' tonight. So i can also cast 'Avada Kadavra' at its full potential and since i got 6 spellbooks of my own, as well as 3 from the libary (i spent multible sittings there), i can cast all three the same night!

I think i can claim a bit power free to be used at your service, Thematthew. It isn't enogth to tread voldemorts position as the most powerfull Wizzard in History, but to save my own hide, as well as take the orders, it should be enougth...

Murska, by the way. Lex-Kat.

[Anonymouswizard]

As an aside, don't target Murska with kill spells, he has a one shot item that allows him to become immune to all spells for a turn, at the cost of being unable to cast any himself.

I'm sorry for giving him access to it, I had no idea he was Order at the time. I'll spend my time making copies tomorrow and will distribute then to anyone who can show me proof of being inner circle.

[igordragonian]

The young professor arrives, looking worried.

'Igordragonian, would you please explain what you have been doing with the house elves missing from the kitchen? Their friends are worried that you might have used them for experiments, or even worse given them clothes. I cannot believe that people like you are allowed to teach here.'

The professor collapses in a chair. He looks like he has been running around all day without any breaks, and the observant realise that he was absent during both lunch and dinner.

'themathew sounds like a good choice, as he's the only one talking sense right now. If anybody wants my help they can come and see me in my office after this, but until then I wish to be left alone.'

EDIT: I'm convinced, Channing my vote to Lex-Kat.

Doing experiments. Yes. Since when, you have turned into a beast rights fighter? hmm?"

[Anonymouswizard]

Doing experiments. Yes. Since when, you have turned into a beast rights fighter? hmm?"

You have the right to utilise elves however you want, as long as the kitchens remain running.

[Disc Lorde]

Sorry I'm late, got busy and didn't realize the day was so close to ending. I'll try to read through the posts, but I don't have much time. Could someone tl;dr it for me?

[AvatarVecna]

Sorry I'm late, got busy and didn't realize the day was so close to ending. I'll try to read through the posts, but I don't have much time. Could someone tl;dr it for me?

TL;DR You've got about 18 hours before day ends, so feel free to take your time if you like.

[igordragonian]

You have the right to utilise elves however you want, as long as the kitchens remain running.

"I took just one. Are you statisfied now?!"

[Thematthew]

TL:DR Murska, igor, and Lex are the order. We're lynching Lex today.

[Disc Lorde]

Current vote tallies:

Lynchee

Disc Lorde: Black Socks
Lex-Kat: Thematthew, ImperatorV, Fleeing Coward, Tom the Mime, Anonymouswizard, Generic-Guy
Thematthew: Murska, Lex-Kat
Eternis: TBFProgrammer
Murska: GrayDeath

Deputy

GrayDeath: Black Socks
Thematthew: Thematthew, ImperatorV, Fleeing Coward, Tom the Mime, Generic-Guy
Murska: Murska
Eternis: TBFProgrammer
Lex-Kat: Lex-Kat
ImperatorV: GrayDeath

So it looks like my vote doesn't matter anyway. I need to go now, but I'll post some RP and analysis later if I can get internet access.