Erfworld Thread III: As the Erf Turns

[Porthos]

for who?

Not for Digdoug, I'd imagine. Hence the implied deadpan delivery of my post.

[slayerx]

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The carny's gonna offer to screw at some point and he's gonna say yes because Alice.

And then the carny will screw them OVER

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I rather think the opposite; we are gonna see the plus side to carny's. Its there in the description of lady dove... The ashen skin is a signmancy of those who had it rough; and you can combine that with the pain in her eyes as she admits she's a carny and how hard she seems to trying to get ANY work from digdoug. Carny's have it rough.

And really, this idea that all carny's are horrible people that will screw you over... sounds a lot like the royalty is superior boop. This constant hate on for carny's feels like its an extension/symptom of the royalty thing. King PosBrake is out to shake the notions that this world was built on; like the traditions and rumors that keep the carny's and predictamancers out of work.

I think i'd be disappointed if Posbrake is wrong

[The Glyphstone]

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To be fair, 100% of Carnies who have appeared in the story so far have been jerks. And we know this one is, or will be, aligned with JoJo, which isn't in her favor.

[slayerx]

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To be fair, 100% of Carnies who have appeared in the story so far have been jerks. And we know this one is, or will be, aligned with JoJo, which isn't in her favor.

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Cause y'know, there can't be a reason for them being jerks... like how everyone shuns them because of the magic they were popped with and enjoy. Like the treatment a certain croakamancer received in her past.

[The Glyphstone]

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Cause y'know, there can't be a reason for them being jerks... like how everyone shuns them because of the magic they were popped with. Like the croakamancers...

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Their magic is, by a certain interpretation of Erfworld social mores, blasphemy. It's defying or evading Fate, which is the Titan's Plan for Erf. Maybe some people pity them for the bad hand of life they were dealt, but I doubt anyone likes Carnies except other Carnies. And by their standards, they're not wrong. Croakamancers are shunned because their magic is creepy and icky, but people probably invite Croakamancers to parties before sending invitations to Carnymancers.

Or maybe being a Carnymancer just comes with an inherent attitude modifier of 'manipulative and untrustworthy'. Your entire reason to exist is cheating the laws of the universe and Screwing Destiny - maybe you put on a friendly, trustworthy face( like JoJo's comradery, or this Carnymancer's pain and desperation) to lure the mark in and get a customer, but what do other people really matter to you, the person who can bend Fate to your will?

Maybe you're right. We'll just have to see if this new character lives up to the Carnymancer stereotype, or defies it somehow. But I think putting DigDoug, with his mental confusion and emotional pain, in the clutches of a Carnymancer is going to go very poorly for him and his side.

[slayerx]

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Their magic is, by a certain interpretation of Erfworld social mores, blasphemy. It's defying or evading Fate, which is the Titan's Plan for Erf. Maybe some people pity them for the bad hand of life they were dealt, but I doubt anyone likes Carnies except other Carnies. And by their standards, they're not wrong. Croakamancers are shunned because their magic is creepy and icky, but people probably invite Croakamancers to parties before sending invitations to Carnymancers.

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And this right here, is why i compared the attitude towards Carnymancers with the royal divine mandate. Royals have long since believed they were better than everyone else because the titans made them that way. This same logic is used AGAINST the carnymancers. "Interpretation of of Erfowlrd social mores"; or in other words, personal common BELIEFS as opposed to FACTS. Its not a fact that Carnymancers are blasphamers; its a belief held by followers of the titans; just like the belief that royals are better than non-royals.

One thing those followers of the titans ignore is that Carnymancers were made by the titans like everyone else. Would the titans really create a unit type whose only purpose to to oppose their will? Or is it more likely that the canrymancers have their place in erfworld like every other unit type? And that's the whole point of King Posbrake's experimental side; to break away from traditional beliefs.

“But the thing is, Digdoug, I don’t care what my father thinks. He is wrong about many, many things. The whole world is wrong, at least on certain topics. I founded Homekey to prove a point, and we continue to prove my point every day. Conventional wisdom has its limits. You can’t just follow along, taking things at face value. Especially when the only reason for them is ‘tradition.’ Or worse, ‘rumor.’ Do you see what I’m saying?”

“So it seemed to me that Predictamancy has a fundamental usefulness to it that shouldn’t be ignored for the sake of superstition.

Just substitute Predictamancy with Carnymancy. Posbrake found another effective military strategy, he found a better use for his coutiers, he's making use of predictamancy, and now he plans to find a use for the carny's

[The Glyphstone]

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And it's likely to backfire on him, which was the second point I made. I think Carnymancers are innately duplicitous and manipulative as part of the same Signamancy that gives them their magic - the Signamancy of conmen and scam artists. The same way Foolamancers don't take anything seriously and adopt the Signmancy of jesters and entertainers, and Predictamancers always act vague and mysterious with the Signamancy of oracles and fortune-tellers. Maybe some of them want to be trustworthy, but they're as much slaves to their Discipline as they are to Duty or Loyalty.

If this somehow has a happy ending, I'll eat a Hat Magician. But I don't think it will.

[HalfTangible]

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And it's likely to backfire on him, which was the second point I made. I think Carnymancers are innately duplicitous and manipulative as part of the same Signamancy that gives them their magic - the Signamancy of conmen and scam artists. The same way Foolamancers don't take anything seriously and adopt the Signmancy of jesters and entertainers, and Predictamancers always act vague and mysterious with the Signamancy of oracles and fortune-tellers. Maybe some of them want to be trustworthy, but they're as much slaves to their Discipline as they are to Duty or Loyalty.

If this somehow has a happy ending, I'll eat a Hat Magician. But I don't think it will.

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I'm gonna go ahead and call here and now that the ending to this (the Digdoug story) will be happy... ish. As much as a crapsack grimdark world can have, anyway. The world will still be ****, but with less corn in the ****.

Agreed otherwise, though. It's likely that even if she wants to be up-front and honest, her nature's gonna get in the way. We've seen Jack take on serious topics and tones a few times, but even then he was aloof, distant and smiling with only one exception that I can think of.

[slayerx]

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If this somehow has a happy ending, I'll eat a Hat Magician. But I don't think it will.

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Considering how Digdoug's story is one of the kickstarter backer stories, I would say the chances are quite high that the ending will be happy-ish. I mean unless the backer WANTED an unhappy ending...

[Rogar Demonblud]

...

Point for you.

[The Glyphstone]

...yeah, honestly can't argue with that one. Not sure how much input the backers got on their stories, but that does raise the odds.

On the other hand, we've seen how attempts to avoid/subvert Predictions in previous stories (Faq, Goodminton) go horribly wrong for the attempter. Having this one work out would be very atypical.

[NEO|Phyte]

Bit of an unstoppable force/immovable object situation. Fate will have its way, but Carnies are all about cheating the system. There's also the angle that if even Carnymancy can't avoid Fate, what exactly is Charlie hoping to accomplish in his efforts to halt Parson?

[Rogar Demonblud]

Kicking the can down the road?

For Predictamancy subversions gone wrong, you should probably add Olive's attempt to get Jillian to croak Judy.

[Legato Endless]

Well, supposedly Carnymancy can fight fate and win, so I doubt they're doomed, it just might come as an awful cost.

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With Dove its hard to say. She's obviously desperate, so she'll agree to whatever DD asks of her. Probably exaggerate her own abilities. She's also already manipulated him pretty easily so far, and he's an ideal mark. Posbrake himself will be a bit harder, though he'll he hampered by inexperience in dealing with magic. Still, none of this means she will screw them over, it could easily be the invaders who get taken advantage of. Or she'll screw both sides. Probably not the rational decision, but we don't know what her past trauma means either. Really, this could go a lot of ways.

[Douglas]

I'm wondering if the Prediction about the capital being attacked has actually already come true - the audit demand (a political attack), delivered by Prince Creen (an air unit). This could lead to some interesting paranoia-fueled antics as Posbrake tries to beat a military attack that isn't coming.

[ChowGuy]

the audit demand (a political attack), delivered by Prince Creen (an air unit).

That's not quite what the prdictamancer said though. Or at least what Posbreak said:

“The Predictamancer also said we would face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it would come by air."

[Douglas]

That's not quite what the prdictamancer said though. Or at least what Posbreak said:

“The Predictamancer also said we would face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it would come by air."

I would not be the least bit surprised if that is Posbrake's rephrasing based on his own understanding, not the original wording, and it's easy to imagine wording that could be interpreted either way.

[Kornaki]

I don't like the audit is the attack interpretation for two reasons. One is that predicamancy to date has been fairly straightforward, it's only when people try to change the prediction or make it happen faster that things get sticky. The other is that the audit was certainly not a major attack, the king was able to fight it off with almost zero effort.

[Killer Angel]

To cheat a prediction, is the kind of idea i expect from Parson. Open thinking.

[HandofShadows]

I wonder how they want to cheat the prediction. Stop the attack stop the reason for the attack?

[Winterwind]

I wonder how they want to cheat the prediction. Stop the attack stop the reason for the attack?

That probably wouldn't work. Cheating Predictions, as far as we have seen thus far, always means having them come true, but in the way that hurts you the least, sticking to the wording of the Prediction very literally.

The easiest way they could use that comes to mind:
1. Relocate their capital to one of their other cities
2. Have one of their warlords "split off", taking Homekey as his city.
3. Hire an air force from somewhere.
4. Reconquer the city.

However, if that was what they were going to do, Posbrake wouldn't have Digdoug upgrading the air defences, so, I dunno.


What I don't understand is why they are this concerned about this. The Prediction wording we were given does not even say they are going to lose to this attack. Even if Posbrake used his own words, and the original said that Homekey was going to fall, they could just change the capital and have Posbrake relocate to the new one. Sure, that's a setback, given that Homekey is their best city, but given their "wide" strategy, it is the kind of setback they should be able to roll with (occasional setbacks of that sort are a natural part of their strategy anyway). Heck, if the attacker does not sack the city, they could just retake it, anyway.

[NEO|Phyte]

One does not simply relocate a capital, there needs to be a Capital Site to relocate to.

[Winterwind]

One does not simply relocate a capital, there needs to be a Capital Site to relocate to.

Oh! Good point, I'd forgotten you couldn't just use any city. My apologies.

Hmmm. Given what we have seen in Inner Peace, a side can persist even when it has no more capital, though (as that is what happens to FAQ), so that thing with the warlord splitting off would still work. The worst thing that could happen would be them losing their treasury (except not really, because they would retake it straight away, and they probably could just spend it all beforehand anyway).

Though now that I think about it, I think for a warlord to found a new site, that warlord has to be Royal. So, given that Posbrake traded away his heir, that wouldn't work. Heh, the irony.

[Psychonaut]

Interesting signamancy in the sides' names there: Delkey, which deletes whatever comes after, and Homekey, which returns to the starting point. (Although I do agree with the idea that as a story made for a backer, this will most likely have a happy-ish ending.)

I would not be the least bit surprised if that is Posbrake's rephrasing based on his own understanding, not the original wording, and it's easy to imagine wording that could be interpreted either way.

I would, unless we're going to learn the actual wording of the Prediction shortly. It doesn't strike me as good storytelling to present a Prediction worded one way to the readers and then, when it doesn't come to pass, say, "Oh wait, that wasn't what it said after all."

What I don't understand is why they are this concerned about this. The Prediction wording we were given does not even say they are going to lose to this attack. Even if Posbrake used his own words, and the original said that Homekey was going to fall, they could just change the capital and have Posbrake relocate to the new one. Sure, that's a setback, given that Homekey is their best city, but given their "wide" strategy, it is the kind of setback they should be able to roll with (occasional setbacks of that sort are a natural part of their strategy anyway). Heck, if the attacker does not sack the city, they could just retake it, anyway.

Perhaps he's concerned because the side that appears most likely to attack them from the air is Delkey, and despite the current tensions Posbrake would rather not fight his parent side. There could also be another Prediction that we haven't heard about yet:

Posbrake closed his eyes and smiled, nodding. “You are ordered to keep the following secret from everyone but me and Chief Bucky. Eight turns ago, we hired a Predictamancer out of the Magic Kingdom. He made several Predictions for us.”

(Emphasis added.)

Though now that I think about it, I think for a warlord to found a new site, that warlord has to be Royal.

Where does that come from? The warlord who founded Haffaton was called Overlord, not King. It could be a case like Lord Crush, I guess, but we haven't seen any evidence for that AFAIK.

[Winterwind]

Perhaps he's concerned because the side that appears most likely to attack them from the air is Delkey, and despite the current tensions Posbrake would rather not fight his parent side. There could also be another Prediction that we haven't heard about yet:

Both good points, aye.

Where does that come from? The warlord who founded Haffaton was called Overlord, not King. It could be a case like Lord Crush, I guess, but we haven't seen any evidence for that AFAIK.

It doesn't say it outright, but in Book 1, here, in the fourth-last paragraph, Parson writes that "Royal empires split off sometimes into new sides", while explaining the whole concept of Royalty - which implies that non-royal empires don't, otherwise that is a very strange thing to say.

Of course, Book 1 was rather a while ago. It's entirely possible Rob has changed his opinion on that since.

EDIT: Also, I guess saying that non-royals cannot found new sides was inaccurate - this merely implies they cannot split off from their parent side to form a new side, but if a non-royal heir found himself a barbarian after his side was crushed, s/he would most certainly be able to found a new one. However, given that we were talking about this in the context of splitting off a new side, that's rather irrelevant here.

[HalfTangible]

Both good points, aye.

It doesn't say it outright, but in Book 1, here, in the fourth-last paragraph, Parson writes that "Royal empires split off sometimes into new sides", while explaining the whole concept of Royalty - which implies that non-royal empires don't, otherwise that is a very strange thing to say.

Of course, Book 1 was rather a while ago. It's entirely possible Rob has changed his opinion on that since.

EDIT: Also, I guess saying that non-royals cannot found new sides was inaccurate - this merely implies they cannot split off from their parent side to form a new side, but if a non-royal heir found himself a barbarian after his side was crushed, s/he would most certainly be able to found a new one. However, given that we were talking about this in the context of splitting off a new side, that's rather irrelevant here.

Stanley entertained the possibility of giving parson his own side one day in the text updates for book 2, implying that non-royal sides can do this as well.

[Math_Mage]

Stanley entertained the possibility of giving parson his own side one day in the text updates for book 2, implying that non-royal sides can do this as well.

And Parson discussed the idea of starting his own side in Jetstone with Charlie as one of the contingencies for getting his ass out of the fire.

[MammonAzrael]

It's possible that Dove winds up joining Jojo's contingent because of what happens here. But given what we have seen so far of Carnymancers, I am hesitant to take anything Dove has done so far as genuine.

[NEO|Phyte]

It's hard to say for certain, considering the only real interaction with them we've seen so far has been with them directly and actively opposing Parson, but I'd imagine that carnymancers in general aren't nearly as bad as their reputation seems to imply, but leaving aside the quasireligious aspect of subverting the Titans' will, they aren't entirely blameless in the reputation coming to be.

[Wayson]

New update!

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An interesting explanation of Carnymancy's potential. This quote is rather distressing though.

“Prob’ly the most common spell in Carnymancy lets you break one rule, for one turn, for one unit.” Dove punctuated her words by holding up an index finger. “As you get more powerful as a Carny, there are more and more rules it’s possible to break.

Charlie is one of the oldest, possibly THE oldest, Carnymancers still alive. Since we know almost nothing about him, we don't know his level, but I'm willing to bet it's double digits... at least. This would mean that he pretty much has cheat codes to Erfworld.

Given that every example of people attempting to cheat a Prediction has ended horribly for them, I do not think this is going to work out for Homekey. Calling it right now: they fall, Digdoug escapes to the Magic Kingdom.