Middle Earth WW: The Two Towers

[Zar Peter]

Zar Peter keeps pushing that thematthew might be a wolf when that's probably a less than 1% chance right now and the ideas he's giving as to how this could possibly be keep getting stranger and stranger.

And this is making me a wolf... how? I'm sorry, but I don't get what a wolf would get out of this plot. You keep insisting that I could be a wolf because I don't use the same logic and the same propability mechanics as you do. I just don't see what a wolf would gain out of this. Or is it just: I don't understand what or why he is doing something so he must be a wolf?

And for me the chance of Thematthew being a wolf is still between 30% and 50%. Not compelling but I'm still by a fair amount not convinced. And if Murska turns out to be a villager this rises to 80% to 90%.

[Logic]

First off, thanks Logic for backing me up.

Last night, Elenna died. Elenna was Gandalf, the Seer.

The Partners were Town.

Logic didn't notice something I had said, and therefore lynched both the Partners and the Alpha, rather than the one that reached a tie sooner. This will be different if the same situation arises.

Does anyone know if there are people that should have been autolynched after two days that have not been?

Spoiler: Player list

Show

101jir-Villager-Town-Died Day 1
Rain Dragon-Villager-Town-Died Night 1
AvatarVecna-Frodo Baggins-Partner-Town-Died Day 2
FC-Samwise Gamgee-Partner-Town-Died Day 2
Luizeu-Sauron-Alpha-Wolf-Died Day 2
Pelican-Legolas-Mason-Town-Died Night 2
TFT-Villager-Town-Died Day 3
Elenna-Gandalf-Seer-Town-Died Night 3

Sprig
ThePhantom
Ramsus
thematthew
Nonayer
Xihirli
Maleceptor
Legato
Lexie
Murska
Sagenkai
Mythaos
Zar Peter
Indarra
Tolomei
Visor
Duck999

I take it you are back?

I thought dual-lynching might be a mistake, but I wasn't sure what the best course of action was, so I went with my gut. My gut was wrong.

Sorry for the obfuscation on the seer death. I thought it might be better to have the mystery of having lost the fool or the seer rather than knowing for sure which one.

As for autolynches, nonayer and tolomei have been inactive the entire game. I was giving them until close of day tonight to get a vote recorded before autolynching them.

If Cuthalion is indeed back, it's been fun being a substitute narrator. We now resume our regularly scheduled programming.

*If I do not see an end to the day at 9 PM PST, I will tally the votes and end the day for Cuthalion.

[Cuthalion]

I take it you are back?

As for autolynches, nonayer and tolomei have been inactive the entire game. I was giving them until close of day tonight to get a vote recorded before autolynching them.

If Cuthalion is indeed back, it's been fun being a substitute narrator. We now resume our regularly scheduled programming.

*If I do not see an end to the day at 9 PM PST, I will tally the votes and end the day for Cuthalion.

Yes, I am. Thanks.

I think I should be able to do it by then and if not 6 am the next day. If you'd like, and I haven't gotten to it, just do a Day Ended post and I can narrate the next morning

[Murska]

So long as the Masons don't counterclaim matthew and the Fool doesn't counterclaim Zar, both of them are essentially fully considered Town.

Legato.

[Visor]

I don't believe you're the village roleblocker. Assuming that is what a voider is.

[Murska]

I don't believe you're the village roleblocker. Assuming that is what a voider is.

I know. I don't have any ideas as to how to convince you.

[Visor]

I know. I don't have any ideas as to how to convince you.

Especially when you don't use your powers.

[Murska]

Especially when you don't use your powers.

I guess I can void the Fool tonight.

[Ramsus]

How would we know the difference between you being a villager voider and a wolf voider? I actually don't see a scenario where we don't lynch you and we're not acting insane.

[Murska]

Yeah, point. Well, you could always leave me alive until we kill all the wolves. I won't use my ability, so I'm not causing any trouble for anyone even if I am alive, and I can work on hunting the bad guys instead.

[Indarra]

Well feelings about Murska are pretty much proven to be way less reliable for most people than feelings about anyone else, so even thought my gut tells me he isn't a wolf that's actually no reason to follow that against a dead seer telling a mason about it.

A Seer claim can't be ignored. You're right, that would be insane. Murska.

[Cuthalion]

The hobbits are holed up in a hobbit hole. Coincidence? Possibly.

Hmmm... we know there are bad people among us, right?

Uh, yeah?

Any ideas?

Hm. Well, I'm three and a half feet tall, and he's three and a half feet tall, and he's three and a half feet tall, and so is she...

What about the ugly fellow who's super tall and weird?

Hmmmm....

Hey there, are you a hobbit?

Me? N- yes! Yes I am! I'm very much a hobbit!

Then why do you look different?

Well... I'm almost a hobbit. Not much different, right? Pretty much the same, right? Orc, hobbit, orc, hobbit? What's the difference? He looks around panicked. Actually, I'm an elf?

The hobbits all look at him.

So you're an elf, are you?

Y-yes! Of course! Magical! I have wonderful powers and everything!

Uh-huh.

*splick*

Day 4 has ended.

Spoiler: Results

Show

Murska was lynched. He was Uglùk, a werewolf.

Spoiler: Player list

Show

101jir-Villager-Town-Died Day 1
Rain Dragon-Villager-Town-Died Night 1
AvatarVecna-Frodo Baggins-Partner-Town-Died Day 2
FC-Samwise Gamgee-Partner-Town-Died Day 2
Luizeu-Sauron-Alpha-Wolf-Died Day 2
Pelican-Legolas-Mason-Town-Died Night 2
TFT-Villager-Town-Died Day 3
Elenna-Gandalf-Seer-Town-Died Night 3
Murska-Ugluk-Werewolf-Wolf-Died Night 4

Sprig
ThePhantom
Ramsus
thematthew
Nonayer
Xihirli
Maleceptor
Legato
Lexie
Sagenkai
Mythaos
Zar Peter
Indarra
Tolomei
Visor
Duck999

Night 4 has begun. It will end in more or less 24 hours.

[Thematthew]

Well that's nice to know, I'm glad something good came out of this debacle so far.

[Ramsus]

What. A. Shock.

Can people stop being suspicious of me, Legato, and thematthew now please? (Although most likely to people talking about how suspicious we were are wolves so....)

[Murska]

Heh. Always worth a shot.

[Ramsus]

Heh. Always worth a shot.

Seriously, well done. You just got unlucky with Elenna scrying you before you guys managed to find her so early and successfully kill her. So I guess the luck kind of balanced out. Although maybe not really given how far Xihirli and Maleceptor wound up sticking out their necks. It's kind of obvious they're wolves now. Though that's not really luck dependent, that's just risky play not panning out. (Which is still could if town is completely insane and doesn't lynch them both in the following days as at least one of them practically has to be a wolf and probably both.)

Still, your strategy as I see it was pretty good for the most part. Should have know you were a wolf because this was one of the first times I felt more like you might not be one instead of the usual having no idea or feeling strongly you were.

[Murska]

Yeah, I was sort of hoping that nobody would have scried me in the first two nights, but then the only time that happens is when I'm already dead by then so I don't know what I was thinking. :P

[Visor]

I should be pretty clear by now.

[Mythaos]

Did I make it in time?

Nope. Sigh. Well, upcoming days are better, so a return to activity will happen, and I will contribute(haven't I said this before?).

[Xihirli]

I'm not going to try to weasel around this. I was wrong. Duped. Totally sold, even. At least it was by Murska. I'll never doubt you again, man. On the upside, I don't think the wolves have any power roles.

I said that Luizeu probably had only one veteran and we found him. I no longer suspect Legato or Ramsus. I further recognize that my barking up the wrong tree has probably excited a lot of confusion and wrong thoughts. I am now willing to take a back-seat and try not to start anything like that again. If it makes you guys feel any better, I'll be very busy for the next few days and won't get much of an opportunity to ruin anything.

I understand if you find me suspicious. I did try to save Murska just then. I won't try to contest if you lynch me, but I will tell you that I'm not a wolf and it would be the waste of a lynch, furthering the wolves' plot in killing all of us. I do still want to use that death scene I wrote, but it would be harmful for town to waste a day killing me.

[Maleceptor]

Yeah, I was wrong too. I suppose there is a spooky ghost i need to apologize to for helping the mob to get him lynched D1. But i might as well share this PM murska sent me and some other people:

Hey y'all. You're on my wagon, and I think there's at least 75% chance none of you are a wolf. I've left the actually suspicious people out of this PM.

Since my role is what it is, I'm pretty sure the wolves have at least 1-2 'unconventional' powerroles, that is, not the Devil. I feel that it's pretty suspicious how Elenna told the Masons of her scry and then was immediately killed - I'm thinking it's possible that her night 1 scry (which obviously didn't come up as a wolf or she'd have mentioned something) might've hit a disguiser, been misdirected or something similar so that she got in contact with a wolf that she'd scried as a Townie. Then that someone convinced her to scry me while the wolves made me look evil. It seems the most reasonable way things could be as they are.

So, the wolves' plan for today is to see me get lynched. I'd like to see what their stakes are. Call their bluff, so to speak. I propose you all switch your votes from me to Legato without explaining precisely why, and see the reactions. If the wolves have unconventional powerroles, and they know my role, they'll probably know that Town also has some interesting powers available. I want to keep them guessing.

Once we've had time to see the reactions, but while there's still several hours until the day end deadline, you can swap back to me to check whether I'm a wolf. That way we'll have gained some information out of today and maybe even managed the big victory of getting suspicious people to react spontaneously to something that surprises them, even if it's otherwise a wash. I don't want my lynch to be just a dull formality that results in no useful information.

We definitely don't have a Seer anymore, so unless Town has some other information-gathering power, we're going to have to start analyzing in order to win this game. And after Pizzaguy Von Kenobi managed the upset last time, I'd like to at least try and get something done (other than killing the Alpha) before I'm out.

Thank you for your cooperation (or lack thereof). Let's have some fun, okay?

And yeah, Sorry for being suspicious of you ramsus and legato. This PM is mainly why i kept my vote on murska, As it seemed desperate to me. Because if he was truly town he'd just accept his death then we'd know who the wolves are. Or at least have a very good idea.

He sent this to: Me, Sangenkai, Duck999, and thematthew.

[Thematthew]

So, pats on the back aside, we still need to survive as best we can tonight. As such I am calling for any townsfolk be they man, hobbit, dwarf, or elf that may have abilities to deal with this orc menace to come to me, so we can better deal with this threat. And, should I die tonight, know that one of my fellowship shall contact those who have trusted me with what they know so we can maintain trust in these dark times.

((But seriously, any power roles that haven't claimed to me probably should by now, because holding onto the tinfoil hat theories of me being a secret wolf who took over the mason name is really really silly now and could very well prevent us from turning this game around from a confusing mire into whack-an-orc.))

[Sangenkai]

Can confirm the above PM from Murska, and was also the reason why I kept my vote. It seemed like a fun play but also didn't really make sense to me. Or rather, the different possibilities of what Murska was attempting really made me want him lynched faster.

Mainly, since Murska seemed to already know he was about to go down, what did he hope to gain from this? Make the people he PMed seemingly behave erratically so that when he was revealed as a wolf, we'd also seem like wolves? Make it seem like he was contacting villagers when some of us (the PM recipients) are actually wolves? Make it seem like that there are wolves amongst the recipients when we are actually all villagers? Make it seem like Legato is a villager when he still actually is a wolf? Try for a hail-mary where Legato ACTUALLY does get lynched (which, if he were a wolf, would make Murska seem totally clean; a decent trade-off)?

I'm drunk so all the possibilities and plays from this aren't all clear in my head, but perhaps the more experienced here can use this for something. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if there was still a wolf amongst the recipients of that PM.

[Thematthew]

I'm mostly ignoring the PM myself, since it seems like a move directed to do one of:

a) Get the lynch onto Legato.

b) Make people who follow it look suspicious.

c) Hide a wolf by making them seem towny.

d) Get someone lynched as it seems like hiding a wolf when it isn't.

So, I think we shouldn't try the wine Murska offered, and just move on rationally.

[Visor]

Yeah I'm going to ignore the PM thing. Murska could even have pmed his own teammates so that it spewed them clear.

Not worth considering.

- - - Updated - - -

Can I get invited to mason chat now

for being onto murska like immediately

i promise i won't out you to the wolf team

[Xihirli]

Looking at Zar Peter's, not even the Power Roles were let in on the Mason chat. They're only directly connected to Thematthew.

Well then, looks like we have ourselves an orc hunt. And this one looks to be a Uruk-hai. (Flavor only, as in he's a dangerous one. It is Murska, afterall. )

Hey, guess who was dead right! That was the name of the leader of the Uruk-Hai.

[Cuthalion]

Night's over. Narration and stuff to come. Don't vote yet, but no more actions.

[Cuthalion]

It was a dark and stormy night.

It was.

A dark and stormy night. Being...

As it was...

A dark and stormy night.

The grass was whipping about on the fields of Rohan.

A figure stole up to the gates of Edoras.

He climbed over the fence.

Tiptoe, tiptoe.

He's at the door now.

There's knocking on the door.

"Knock knock!"

That was not knocking, he just said

"Knock knock!"

Inside, people stir.

"Knock."

A short figure, a mere silhouette against the light thrown on the walls by glowing coals...

His hand is on the door.

He's opening it...

*splick*

Spoiler: Results

Show

Ramsus died. He was Gimli, a Mason.

Spoiler: Player list

Show

101jir-Villager-Town-Died Day 1
Rain Dragon-Villager-Town-Died Night 1
AvatarVecna-Frodo Baggins-Partner-Town-Died Day 2
FC-Samwise Gamgee-Partner-Town-Died Day 2
Luizeu-Sauron-Alpha-Wolf-Died Day 2
Pelican-Legolas-Mason-Town-Died Night 2
TFT-Villager-Town-Died Day 3
Elenna-Gandalf-Seer-Town-Died Night 3
Murska-Ugluk-Werewolf-Wolf-Died Day 4
Ramsus-Gimli-Mason-Town-Died Night 4

Sprig
ThePhantom
thematthew
Nonayer
Xihirli
Maleceptor
Legato
Lexie
Sagenkai
Mythaos
Zar Peter
Indarra
Tolomei
Visor
Duck999

Day 5 begins. It will end in approximately 48 hours.

[Ramsus]

Yup, as expected. Murska dies early. Ramsus dies early. All the old normal stuff. Good luck town.

[Murska]

Hey, night 4 is mid-game at least. Almost late-game territory for me.